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Cycle

BTC Macros, Cycle base supportEvery cycle has its moments of exess greed, and every cycle has its moments of exess panic. However we always follow the logarithmic uptrend, with its backbone being the trend pre mega pump. In the last cycle the bottom did not take too long post breaking of this "backbone", and usualy a single sharp break followed by minor testing of the lower ranges was the result. As the covid crash on 2021 can be concidered an abnormal event, we can therefore minimise its effects, while still concidering that it would cause abnormal behaviour (Such as a faster false peek, followed by a retest of said peek later) Additionaly with the shift in BTC overall behaviour we can expect shorter bear markets, as the overall market increases in size, the drops will become shorter and less extreeme, as well as shorter in duration. Fundamentaly BTC faces the issue of speculation, which draws away from its purpose as a store of value. This behaviour will soon be more evident, now that once again speculators are washed out of the market, and large players are loading up for future gains.
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by JokerMate
1
BITCOIN - History Repeats Itself!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. The picture is self-explanatory. We are overall bearish from a long-term perspective trading inside the big dashed channel in black. Inside the black channel, we had the first impulse in red, then a correction in blue, and we are currently inside the second impulse movement (red channel). Inside the impulse movement in red, we can see three phases, which we can compare to the first red channel. We had our two impulse movements downward and two consolidations in gray. we are currently in the third gray consolidation. If History Repeats Itself, we still need a break below the third gray consolidation downward, to find support around the 10k-12k weekly demand for the next blue correction to start. The bulls would invalidate this scenario if we break above the upper red trendline, in this case we would have a premature / early correction. Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good Luck!. All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TheSignalyst
36
Bitcoin long term analysis - (2012-2022)If the older chart patterns serve as an indicator to predict future movements, we can conclude that the price is not far from establishing a bottom and reaching the accumulation zone, where it previously spent months lateralizing until reaching the halving and starting a new cycle. Look Blue vertical line - Halving's Green area - Bull Market Red area - Bear Market Blue area - Accumulation zone Yellow arrow - time period to ATH Yellow dashed line - ATH BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Wojak19
1
Well 22K didnt hold So if we break down new bearish target 12KSince we are dropping so quickly to 20K so early in the bear cycle, My new thoughts for a likely target is 12K Reasons are: Global markets are in a abnormal bear cycle due to many global issue's. To keep inflation under control the governments across the world are raising interest rates & we have a very nervous global market. Issue's arising with China & current Russian aggression has created a energy shortage adding to inflation & scaring the market investors away. Unemployment across many countries is very low ATM however with recession taking hold this may see many business & jobs fold. So my conclusion is that if the market keeps failing from this post we are going to see the crypto market follow. I feel this is almost a certinty to happen. BTC next halving is around early to mid 2024 so that leaves plenty of time to grind lower & I really cant see any logical reasons why BTC will go bullish until then. Advice for any one reading this is to trade carefully & save those dollars for the next BTC halving bull run.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TheAussieBogan
3
Prediction of timing & dive to bear season floorJust published it for a record to see how I go with my prediction. Next BTC halving around may 2024 so bull run should have showed signs of pampu. We need time to hit the bear cycle floor. IMO we should see a floor by November 2022. My prediction is around 22k floor price but thats not factoring any black events that could happen. We normally crab for 6 months before we start the ascend to heaven. By Christmas 2024 or early 2025 we all be happy investors ready to sell perhaps.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by TheAussieBogan
1
Where and when is the BTC bottom?Past performance is not always indicative of future results but I don't have a crystal ball so I will use the data available to me in order to predict a timing and area of the BTC bottom for the current cycle. On average there is typically 1,380 days between halving cycles. The beginning of the halving cycle to the price bottom of that cycle, takes approx. 830 days on average, or about 60% into the cycle. Cycle bottoms occur on average, 389 days after the cycle top. The average drawdown for the past 2 cycles has been 87% and 84%, respectively. That gives us these potential bottoming areas: 1) 80% = 13,850 2) 82% = 12,300 3) 84% = 11,000 4) 86% = 9,700 Based on this data I can reasonably infer that BTC is likely to bottom somewhere between 13,000 and 10,000, and between the months of September and November of 2022. * The above information is not intended as investment advice and should not be taken as such. These are my own opinions and TA. As always, please do your own due diligence before making investment decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Drewsified
1
Daily Checklist Before The Market Opens | Jun-9 2022Hello and thank you if you are a regular reader 🖖 Welcome if you are new to my daily publication... 👍 Publishing this post on a daily basis helps me avoid distractions and sets my focus to be fully in line with the now in the marketplace. Knowing you read me keeps me accountable and forces me to be objective in my analysis which helps with my own trading emotions and temptations 😉 This selfish moment may also serve you well 😁 as my findings may guide you into understanding the markets better, or may simply act as a second opinion after you have performed your own analysis 👏 The rationale of my analysis is detailed on the chart itself so you don't need to look up and down. Below you will simply find the results of my process applied to other four relevant markets I always check before I trade. Trade well! OIL: NYMEX:CL1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: UP 🎯Confirmed: YES 🎯Stats: 14 out of 6.73 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: - 🛸Buy UFOs: 120.36-117.14 3️⃣Options IV: 44.37% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±3.40 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±7.49 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±15.59 GOLD: COMEX:GC1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: UP 🎯Confirmed: NO 🎯Stats: 2 out of 6.11 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: 2003.0-1962.7 🛸Buy UFOs: 1834.8-1785.0 3️⃣Options IV: 16.04% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±18.72 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±41.20 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±85.77 DOLLAR: ICEUS:DX1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: UP 🎯Confirmed: YES 🎯Stats: 4 out of 4.92 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: 103.295-102.805 🛸Buy UFOs: 100.675-99.810 3️⃣Options IV: 8.50% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±0.55 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±1.21 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±2.51 BITCOIN: ICEUS:BTM1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: DOWN 🎯Confirmed: YES 🎯Stats: 1 out of - 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: 31732.5-29432.5 🛸Buy UFOs: 23737.5-22910.0 3️⃣Options IV: 72.64% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±1398.28 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±3078.17 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±640.7.71 I believe now you know why UFO and 3D are part of my name… Feel free to private-message me and share more about your trading style if you are too attracted by those UFOs 💪 *This daily post is not intended to be used as financial advice
CME_MINI:ES1!
by UFO3Dtrader
1
Daily Checklist Before The Market Opens | Jun-8 2022Hello and thank you if you are a regular reader 🖖 Welcome if you are new to my daily publication... 👍 Publishing this post on a daily basis helps me avoid distractions and sets my focus to be fully in line with the now in the marketplace. Knowing you read me keeps me accountable and forces me to be objective in my analysis which helps with my own trading emotions and temptations 😉 This selfish moment may also serve you well 😁 as my findings may guide you into understanding the markets better, or may simply act as a second opinion after you have performed your own analysis 👏 The rationale of my analysis is detailed on the chart itself so you don't need to look up and down. Below you will simply find the results of my process applied to other four relevant markets I always check before I trade. Trade well! OIL: NYMEX:CL1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: UP 🎯Confirmed: YES 🎯Stats: 13 out of 6.74 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: - 🛸Buy UFOs: 111.96-103.24 3️⃣Options IV: 45.88% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±3.50 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±7.70 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±16.03 GOLD: COMEX:GC1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: UP 🎯Confirmed: NO 🎯Stats: 1 out of 6.11 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: 2003.0-1962.7 🛸Buy UFOs: 1834.8-1785.0 3️⃣Options IV: 16.64% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±19.42 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±42.75 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±88.99 DOLLAR: ICEUS:DX1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: UP 🎯Confirmed: YES 🎯Stats: 3 out of 4.92 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: 103.295-102.805 🛸Buy UFOs: 100.675-99.810 3️⃣Options IV: 8.67% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±0.56 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±1.23 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±2.57 BITCOIN: ICEUS:BTM1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: UP 🎯Confirmed: NO 🎯Stats: 2 out of - 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: 36445.0-35525.0 🛸Buy UFOs: 23737.5-22910.0 3️⃣Options IV: 72.80% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±1395.97 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±3073.08 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±6397.13 I believe now you know why UFO and 3D are part of my name… Feel free to private-message me and share more about your trading style if you are too attracted by those UFOs 💪 *This daily post is not intended to be used as financial advice
CME_MINI:ES1!
by UFO3Dtrader
Daily Checklist Before The Market Opens | Jun-7 2022Hello and thank you if you are a regular reader 🖖 Welcome if you are new to my daily publication... 👍 Publishing this post on a daily basis helps me avoid distractions and sets my focus to be fully in line with the now in the marketplace. Knowing you read me keeps me accountable and forces me to be objective in my analysis which helps with my own trading emotions and temptations 😉 This selfish moment may also serve you well 😁 as my findings may guide you into understanding the markets better, or may simply act as a second opinion after you have performed your own analysis 👏 The rationale of my analysis is detailed on the chart itself so you don't need to look up and down. Below you will simply find the results of my process applied to other four relevant markets I always check before I trade. Trade well! OIL: NYMEX:CL1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: UP 🎯Confirmed: YES 🎯Stats: 12 out of 6.74 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: - 🛸Buy UFOs: 111.96-103.24 3️⃣Options IV: 47.90% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±3.57 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±7.85 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±16.35 GOLD: COMEX:GC1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: DOWN 🎯Confirmed: YES 🎯Stats: 2 out of 5.7 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: 2003.0-1962.7 🛸Buy UFOs: 1834.8-1785.0 3️⃣Options IV: 16.81% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±19.58 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±43.11 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±89.74 DOLLAR: ICEUS:DX1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: UP 🎯Confirmed: YES 🎯Stats: 2 out of 4.92 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: 103.295-102.805 🛸Buy UFOs: 100.675-99.810 3️⃣Options IV: 8.77% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±0.57 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±1.25 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±2.60 BITCOIN: ICEUS:BTM1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: UP 🎯Confirmed: NO 🎯Stats: 1 out of - 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: 36445.0-35525.0 🛸Buy UFOs: 23737.5-22910.0 3️⃣Options IV: 72.76% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±1386.15 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±3051.47 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±6352.14 I believe now you know why UFO and 3D are part of my name… Feel free to private-message me and share more about your trading style if you are too attracted by those UFOs 💪 *This daily post is not intended to be used as financial advice
CME_MINI:ES1!
by UFO3Dtrader
Daily Checklist Before The Market Opens | Jun-6 2022Hello and thank you if you are a regular reader 🖖 Welcome if you are new to my daily publication... 👍 Publishing this post on a daily basis helps me avoid distractions and sets my focus to be fully in line with the now in the marketplace. Knowing you read me keeps me accountable and forces me to be objective in my analysis which helps with my own trading emotions and temptations 😉 This selfish moment may also serve you well 😁 as my findings may guide you into understanding the markets better, or may simply act as a second opinion after you have performed your own analysis 👏 The rationale of my analysis is detailed on the chart itself so you don't need to look up and down. Below you will simply find the results of my process applied to other four relevant markets I always check before I trade. Trade well! OIL: NYMEX:CL1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: UP 🎯Confirmed: YES 🎯Stats: 11 out of 6.74 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: - 🛸Buy UFOs: 111.96-103.24 3️⃣Options IV: 46.23% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±3.48 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±7.66 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±15.95 GOLD: COMEX:GC1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: DOWN 🎯Confirmed: NO 🎯Stats: 1 out of 5.68 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: 2003.0-1962.7 🛸Buy UFOs: 1834.8-1785.0 3️⃣Options IV: 16.51% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±19.30 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±42.50 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±88.46 DOLLAR: ICEUS:DX1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: UP 🎯Confirmed: NO 🎯Stats: 1 out of 4.92 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: 103.295-102.805 🛸Buy UFOs: 100.675-99.810 3️⃣Options IV: 8.39% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±0.54 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±1.19 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±2.47 BITCOIN: ICEUS:BTM1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: UP 🎯Confirmed: NO 🎯Stats: 1 out of - 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: 32250.0-31307.5 🛸Buy UFOs: 23737.5-22910.0 3️⃣Options IV: 70.86% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±1394.03 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±3068.82 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±6388.26 I believe now you know why UFO and 3D are part of my name… Feel free to private-message me and share more about your trading style if you are too attracted by those UFOs 💪 *This daily post is not intended to be used as financial advice
CME_MINI:ES1!
by UFO3Dtrader
Weekly Analysis BTC via Ichimoku by TheSocialCryptoClubGood weekend, As usual, here is our analysis of the week looking at a glance at the daily chart of BINANCE:BTCUSDT using the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator with traditional settings. We used in support other indicators that we developed and released Open Source, you can find them at the end of the analysis. Trend: Kumo has been red for 49 days, compared to the previous week where it had tapered. Now it gets wider (now at about 16.18%). Almost all lines indicate a general downtrend. In the short term we note that the price is above the Kijun. Reading this in the overall context we notice though that the Kijun has plunged abruptly, repelling the price several times. So the scenario continues to be non-bearish anyway. The Kijun Trend indicator always indicates looking for short positions. Since the price is on the Kijun it may change colour in the week. Heikin-Ashi: For the week the Heikin-Ashi indicates a downtrend although with indecisive candles. Supports and resistances: - 75000.00 from Fibonacci - 67000.00 from all-time high - 66001.41 from all-time high of the Chikou - 51800.00-52600.00 from Ichimoku Flat/cusp areas of the Chikou - 49000.00-51000.00 Fibonacci, psychological threshold and Kijun Weekly - 44400.00-45600.00 from Ichimoku Flat/cusp areas of the Chikou - 41200.00 from Ichimoku flat/cusp areas of the Chikou - 39400.00 from Ichimoku flat/cusp areas of the Chikou - 37000.00 from Ichimoku flat/cusp areas of the Chikou - 35700.00 from Fibonacci - 35000.00 from Ichimoku flat/cusp areas of the Chikou - 33500.00 from Ichimoku flat/cusp areas of the Chikou - 30300.00 from Ichimoku Flat/cusp areas of the Chikou - 28700.00 from Ichimoku Flat/cusp areas of the Chikou - 25000.00 from Fibonacci For the various static price structures you can refer to the chart where the structures identified by the flat moments of Tenkan, Kijun, Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B on different timeframes are plotted, also Chikou price for the daily time frame. Also, recall that the various Ichimoku lines serve as dynamic price structures: the Tenkan Sen (short term), the Kijun Sen (medium term) as well as the Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B (long term). Fibonacci: The Fibonacci levels on the Daily still show us positive long-term sentiment and places the 0 upside on 75000.00. Price is now between level 1 at 25000.00 and 0.786 on 35700.00. Conclusion: BTC continues to be in a downtrend on the daily and weekly time frame. All lines confirm this and the Kijun both daily and weekly fell abruptly, particularly on the daily this allowed the price to go above the Kijun. Therefore a bearish equilibrium situation is present. The well-known exponential moving averages often used in the Crypto market on the 200, 50 and 20 periods are aligned in downtrend. An interesting element is the Hosoda waves that signal an ABC pattern with the C point on the low of 2022-05-12, there are no rising lows and in fact the NT target is at 16245.00 while the N target is at 37734.84. Levels to keep in mind in case of a break or as a target. It is important to evaluate the closing of the week and during the week on the following price structures: - Bullish: 31800.00 - Bearish: 28700.00 Altcoin Cycle: For Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Cycle we can consider the weekly variation: - Total cryptocurrency market capital: Increased. - BTC Dominance: Increased. - Price of BTC: Increased. - Alt Cycle Expectation: Decreased. Thanks for your attention, happy to support the TradingView community. Indicators used: Analysis Tool Kijun Trend Indicator Ichimoku Support and Resistance Chikou Support and Resistance
by TheSocialCryptoClub
1
IOTA/USDT - Complex overview for USD altcoinsIOTA / USDT (Binance) - A comprehensive look at the trend of altcoins in USDT pairs IOTA is a token that was among the first in my portfolio in 2018. Overall, this is probably one of my first purchases ever, so I always have a bit of nostalgia in this chart. It is not fundamentally bad at all, but at the same time it has not yet delivered a revolution on the Internet in a similarly broad-spectrum Internet of Things (IoT). However, I don't want to write specifically about this pair, but it seems to me to be a good example of an average altcoin in terms of chart. 👌🏻The current altcoin market takes three forms: 1. - Charts such as HNT, STX, SOL, BNB. They recorded tough corrections, but their growth in the previous bullrun was so impulsive that even such a tough market correction failed to send them to long-term PoC structures and their long-term up-trend is maintained (including Bitcoin). 2- Charts like IOTA - Despite strong growth during the last run, they failed to get prices above their ATH and the current market situation sent them to the historically strongest Point of Control levels (in the case of IOTA - $ 0.285) 3. Newer charts like MINA, DYDX and others - haven't warmed up in the market for a long time, they have managed to make nice impulsive structures, but their chart has not yet experienced a bear market. This puts them at a disadvantage, as the structure lacks long-term PoCs as in the case of IOTA or BTC. It is these last 2 types of charts that are beginning to suggest that perhaps due to the influence of LUNA, perhaps only the macroeconomic situation, USDT pairs will have to create longer-term accumulation zones (about 1 year) before a possible next bull run. 👍🏻Still, the vast majority of long-term charts are in sharply declining bullish patterns (most in falling wedges). Although the slope and pattern may indicate the end of the correction, and following a hard pump breakout, it makes more sense to the exact opposite. Of course, strong pumps can come and we will see 100-200% growth in the market again, we will probably have to wait for a new trend to start. - This view may be one of the most basic things on the market and that is CYCLE. Each cycle on each asset of the international financial world takes place in 3 phases. Uptrend / Downtrend and subsequent consolidation. The condition of the enormously declining altcoins is beginning to indicate the bottom. Personally, it would make sense to me to create one short-term low in the form of a wick, which would come after the SL and liquidators of the currently recruited longs. However, I would venture to say that there will be an area of ​​LONG-TERM BOTTOM. ❕Current prices for HODL perspective are more than luxurious, we didn't even dream about it half a year ago, and therefore the period of the coming months is more than suitable for the accumulation of favorites for long-term (HODL) positions. As in every market, only the meaningful will survive, so choose projects that have a product / ecosystem or global implementation. My modest estimate (of course it could be wrong) is that in the next year there will be a chance to take 100-200% profits on the altcoins several times, but we will probably have to wait for some more significant bull run and REAL alt season, maybe up to one year. ✅ Gradually, after creating a new low, I will start to accumulate the HODL portfolio on a large scale. At the same time, we will use this drop to gain middle-term positions with targets of 50-200% and we will try to use the lower volatility on HTF for LTF trades to multiply the USDT portfolio before the re-green year, which could come about 1 year before the halving (the one for so far it is published on August 12, 2024). As a result, we will focus our strategy on next summer. 1D chart:
by Tradify_Seb