Cycle
Weekly Analysis BTC via Ichimoku Good start to the week,
Let us analyse at a glance the daily chart of BINANCE:BTCUSDT with Ichimoku Kinko Hyo. We use the traditional settings. There are other indicators in the analysis. We have developed and released them Open Source.
Trend:
The Kumo has been green for 13 days and is about 6.40% wide. It has widened and is stable. The various lines indicate an uptrend momentum with a sideways bias in the long term and medium term. In the short term, however, the price is on the Tenkan, indicating a potential bounce or downtrend.
The Kijun Trend indicator now indicates looking for long positions.
Heikin-Ashi:
The Heikin-Ashi confirm bullish momentum and net of one red candle, the rest are green and away from the Tenkan.
Supports and resistances:
- 29800.00 Chikou cusps and flat areas of Kijun and Tenkan
- 25000.00 Fibonacci
- 24800.00 Chikou cusps and flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan
- 24400.00 Chikou cusps and flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan
- 24200.00 Chikou cusps and flat areas of Kijun and Tenkan
- 23300.00 Chikou cusps and flat areas of Kijun and Tenkan
- 21200.00 Chikou cusps and flat areas of Kijun and Tenkan
- 20200.00 Chikou cusps and flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan
- 19100.00 Fibonacci
For static price levels, the lower right chart plots the Tenkan, Kijun, Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B flat zones on different timeframes, and the Chikou for the daily time frame.
For dynamic price levels, the Ichimoku lines can be observed: the Tenkan Sen (short term), the Kijun Sen (medium term) as well as the Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B (long term).
Conclusions:
The situation is bullish/lateral, given also the proximity of the psychological threshold of 30000.00.
Hosoda's N wave of the ABC pattern identified several analyses ago has been centred and is acting as the resistance. It is possible to find two other ABC patterns: one bullish indicating a first level at 31134.30, another indicating a sideways movement where the N wave is at 24417.14 and the NT wave at 33736.10.
From a fundamental point of view, it continues to be interesting to see more distressed banks and instead the strength of Cryptos, born precisely out of distrust in the traditional market. In general however, the FED continues to raise rates while the market is responding with a rebound in the stock market.
It is important to assess the price close during the week on the following price structures:
- Bullish: 28700
- Bearish/Lateral: 25000
Altcoin Cycle:
For Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Cycle we can consider the weekly variation:
- Total cryptocurrency market capital: Increased.
- Dominance of BTC: Increased.
- Price of BTC: Increased.
- Alt Cycle Expectation: Decreased.
Thanks for your attention, happy to support the TradingView community.
Indicators used:
Analysis Tool
Kijun Trend Indicator
Ichimoku Support and Resistance
Chikou Support and Resistance
March 31 - BTC, SPX, DXY31st of March has consistently been either: a sharp turning point, a spike in trend action or a calling for a long-term trend reversal. S&P 500 and Nasdaq have followed this odd tendency correspondingly. For a few significant reasons below, I anticipate this year's 31st of March will astonish many of us.
Distinct Timing:
Alignment with KEY economic data readings:
--> Core PCE Price Index (MoM) is the reading. CNN on this index: "PCE, specifically the core measurement, is the Fed’s favored inflation gauge, since it provides a more complete picture of costs for consumers." Currently, it is undeniably the most significant factor which will drive markets to new equilibriums. Factors including: markets' indecisiveness (particularly large institutions); consistent past increases in the core PCE; and unexpectedly high most recent inflation reading in the UK (actual 10.4 vs expected 9.7) - do not make the next reading seem promising for bulls.
--> Eurozone inflation level will be vital, partly due to the mentioned recent surprise from UK's inflation reading. As this could potentially clarify whether the unexpected reading arose from global or solely UK-related factors.
Date Alignment:
1/ Last day of the month
2/ Last day of the working week (Friday)
3/ And of course, the day is March 31st :)
If you have been following my channel you know how much I love spread graphs. Check out the spread chart's indicators (including 50 SMA, 50 EMA, 200 SMA, and 200 EMA) and its formula below.
Same graph (W):
Same graph (M):
The formula:
CRYPTOCAP:BTC*(TVC:GOLD*((TVC:US30Y-TVC:US10Y)*(TVC:US10Y-TVC:US02Y)+10))^-1
Thanks for your time guys! If not for some comments in my last post, I wouldn't have found an error in the formula! So, please comment with any questions, ideas and opinions.
BTC Long Term view for this CycleAccumulation and distribution (tops) marked on BTC's history. By this logic there could be a $180k btc in Jan 2025 (28 months from now). Let's hope!
-RSI marks tops and bottom pretty well, same sort of level each cycle
-According to this logic 17k was the bottom for bitcoin, but we don't know how it fairs in a recessionary environment. I will probably bid in September as that tends to be the worst month for ES.
Bitcoin Log Curve Intersection as Macro Top IdeaBitcoin Log Curve Intersection as Macro Top Idea - Another idea to see how it goes, general premise being the top for this cycle will be an underside retest of the log growth curve indicator that failed in this current bear market. Or maybe multiple tops.
Weekly Analysis BTC via Ichimoku Good start to the week,
Let us analyze at a glance the daily chart of BINANCE:BTCUSDT with Ichimoku Kinko Hyo. We use the traditional settings. There are other indicators in the analysis. We have developed and released them Open Source.
Trend:
Kumo has been green for 6 days and is about 0.7% wide. It changes abruptly but is currently widening. After the bounce on the Kumo and the Kijun Weekly now the situation is generally bullish and the Kijun Daily is on the Tenkan Weekyl level.
The Kijun Trend indicator now indicates looking for long positions, as anticipated the change was very likely and now the price is very far from the Kinun.
Heikin-Ashi:
The Heikin-Ashi confirms the rebound and strong bullish momentum.
Supports and resistances:
- 29800.00 Chikou cusps and flat areas of Kijun and Tenkan.
- 25000.00 Fibonacci
- 24800.00 Chikou cusps and flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan
- 24400.00 Chikou cusps and flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan
- 24200.00 Chikou cusps and flat areas of Kijun and Tenkan
- 23300.00 Chikou cusps and flat areas of Kijun and Tenkan
- 21200.00 Chikou cusps and flat areas of Kijun and Tenkan
- 20200.00 Chikou cusps and flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan
- 19100.00 Fibonacci
For static price levels, the lower right chart plots the Tenkan, Kijun, Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B flat zones on different timeframes, and the Chikou for the daily time frame.
For dynamic price levels, the Ichimoku lines can be observed: the Tenkan Sen (short term), the Kijun Sen (medium term) as well as the Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B (long term).
Conclusions:
The situation is bullish.
Considering the current pattern with point B at March 10 and calculated with point C at March 14, we have 28773 (NT) as an interesting level.
From a fundamental point of view, it's interesting to see several banks fail and respective central bank bailouts. In general BTC was born as a response-in the times to-similar issues, this could be the motivation for the price increase.
It is important to evaluate the price close during the week on the following price structures:
- Bullish: 28700
- Bearish/Lateral: 25000
Altcoin Cycle:
For Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Cycle, we can consider the weekly variation:
- Total cryptocurrency market capital: Increased.
- Dominance of BTC: Increased.
- Price of BTC: Increased.
- Alt Cycle Expectation: Decreased.
Thanks for your attention, happy to support the TradingView community.
Indicators used:
Analysis Tool
Kijun Trend Indicator
Ichimoku Support and Resistance
Chikou Support and Resistance
BTC/USD Just comparing % with the fall in 2013-2015I just compared the % with the fall in 2013-2015.
A structure that is currently being formed on a large time frame in a secondary trend. Logarithmic graph.
Percentages are retained for clarity, as in 2014-2015.
Earn money in the market does not allow banal greed. Almost everyone suffers from this disease. Therefore, your freedom from greed gives an unthinkable superiority over the patients of the “devil”.
Secondary downtrend. 2013 – 2015
Percentage price reduction from key areas. "Removal of Passengers"
Secondary downtrend of 2013-2015 and super “takeaways” in it. Then the pedestrian goes sideways (accumulation)—with similar “discharges of extra passengers." Pay attention to the % reduction and zone. The “terrible prices” of which after the cycle were the price of dreaming of "more than one stream of hamsters."
The market shapes people's behavior. What is displayed on the price chart.
Never try to catch highs or lows, work in parts. Disconnect from the majority controlled mindset of society.
Main trend. Line chart. Logarithm. Term 1 month
BTC/USD Secondary trend cycles and BTC halvings.
The same, but on a candlestick chart.
BTC/USD Main trend. % Secondary Trend Highs
Secondary trend (part). Work zone.
BTC/USD Secondary trend (part). Local work.
The basis of profit/loss is who you are here and now. Your knowledge and experience are projected onto the graph. The symbiosis of these two parameters, implemented in practice, will earn or lose money.
Weekly Analysis BTC via Ichimoku Good start to the week,
Let us analyze at a glance the daily chart of BINANCE:BTCUSDT with Ichimoku Kinko Hyo. We use the traditional settings. There are other indicators in the analysis. We have developed and released them Open Source.
Trend:
Kumo has been red for 4 days and is about 0.7% wide. It has turned red since the last analysis and is now very thin again and may cross again. It is interesting in general to see the bounce exactly on the Kumo and the Kijun Weekly Continued uncertainty as from the past week. In general, short term is bullish and bearish-lateral on the medium and long term.
The Kijun Trend indicator now indicates looking for short positions, but today's candle has outperformed by a lot, so in two days it may return to looking for long situations.
Heikin-Ashi:
The Heikin-Ashi confirms the rebound
Supports and resistances:
- 29800.00 Chikou cusps and flat areas of Kijun and Tenkan
- 25000.00 Fibonacci
- 24800.00 Chikou cusps and flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan
- 24400.00 Chikou cusps and flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan
- 24200.00 Chikou cusps and flat areas of Kijun and Tenkan
- 23300.00 Chikou cusps and flat areas of Kijun and Tenkan
- 21200.00 Chikou cusps and flat areas of Kijun and Tenkan
- 20200.00 Chikou cusps and flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan
- 19100.00 Fibonacci
For static price levels, the lower right chart plots the Tenkan, Kijun, Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B flat zones on different timeframes, and the Chikou for the daily time frame.
For dynamic price levels, the Ichimoku lines can be observed: the Tenkan Sen (short term), the Kijun Sen (medium term) as well as the Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B (long term).
Conclusions:
The situation is bullish/lateral.
Hosoda waves calculated last week on a bearish ABC pattern were touched: 22750 (NT), 21472 (N), 21444 (V), 20194 (E).
Considering the current pattern with point B on March 10, we have 16376 (NT), 20827 (N), 25278 (E), and 28450 (V) as further levels.
From a fundamental point of view, it is problematic the liquidation of Silicon Valley Bank, of the Fed's reassurances about it, as well as
It is important to assess the price close during the week on the following price structures:
- Bullish: 24400.00-24800.00
- Bearish/Lateral: 24000.00-22200.00
Altcoin Cycle:
For Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Cycle we can consider the weekly variation:
- Total cryptocurrency market capital: Increased.
- Dominance of BTC: Increased.
- Price of BTC: Increased.
- Alt Cycle Expectation: Decreased.
Thanks for your attention, happy to support the TradingView community.
Indicators used:
Analysis Tool
Kijun Trend Indicator
Ichimoku Support and Resistance
Chikou Support and Resistance
Weekly Analysis BTC via IchimokuGood start to the week,
Let us analyze at a glance the daily chart of BINANCE:BTCUSDT with Ichimoku Kinko Hyo. We use the traditional settings. There are other indicators in the analysis. We have developed and released them Open Source.
Trend:
Kumo has been green for 65 days and is about 2.5% wide. It has risen since the last analysis but has shrunk a lot. The situation is getting more and more uncertain: price has entered the Kumo and in the short term there is a sideways/ bearish momentum while in the long term there is still an uptrend.
The Kijun Trend indicator now indicates looking for short positions.
Heikin-Ashi:
The Heikin-Ashi confirms the bearish movement of the past week.
Supports and resistances:
- 29800.00 Chikou cusps and Kijun and Tenkan flat zones.
- 25000.00 Fibonacci
- 24800.00 Chikou cusps and flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan
- 24400.00 Chikou cusps and flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan
- 24200.00 Chikou cusps and flat areas of Kijun and Tenkan
- 23300.00 Chikou cusps and flat areas of Kijun and Tenkan
- 21200.00 Chikou cusps and flat areas of Kijun and Tenkan
- 20200.00 Chikou cusps and flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan
- 19100.00 Fibonacci
For static price levels, the lower right chart plots the Tenkan, Kijun, Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B flat zones on different timeframes, and the Chikou for the daily time frame.
For dynamic price levels, the Ichimoku lines can be observed: the Tenkan Sen (short term), the Kijun Sen (medium term) as well as the Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B (long term).
Conclusions:
The situation is bullish/lateral.
Hosoda waves calculated on a bearish ABC pattern, shows the following price levels on the waves: 22750 (NT), 21472 (N), 21444 (V), 20194 (E).
From a fundamental point of view, it is interesting to note that-despite the moment of uncertainty-U.S. equities closed the week on the upside while crypto-related assets are doing the opposite and are now on an important level for a retracement or continue the downtrend, also influenced by the liquidation of the Voyager fund.
It is important to assess the price close during the week on the following price structures:
- Bullish: 22750.00
- Bearish/Lateral: 22000.00-21200.00
Altcoin Cycle:
For Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Cycle we can consider the weekly variation:
- Total cryptocurrency market capital: Decreased.
- Dominance of BTC: Decreased.
- Price of BTC: Decreased.
- Alt cycle expectation: Stable.
Thanks for your attention, happy to support the TradingView community.
Indicators used:
Analysis Tool
Kijun Trend Indicator
Ichimoku Support and Resistance
Chikou Support and Resistance
EURUSD the long-term pic - My target 1.3-1.4I think it bottomed in 2022, and that Eurodollar futures are approaching end of cylce. Bounce will be supportive for the EURUSD. Bunds forming a wedge, turn down on US and BUND yields will make EURUSD bullish (rate differential) like in past cycles
Grega
Weekly Analysis BTC via Ichimoku
Good start to the week,
Let us analyse at a glance the daily chart of BINANCE:BTCUSDT with Ichimoku Kinko Hyo. We use the traditional settings. There are other indicators in the analysis. We have developed and released them Open Source.
Trend:
Kumo has been green for 58 days and is about 11% wide. It has risen since the last analysis and is looking slightly upward. The situation is still uncertain: on the short term there is downtrend, on the medium term there is laterality, and on the long term there is laterality/uptrend.
The Kijun Trend indicator now indicates looking for long positions, although price is at Kijun levels and yesterday could have signalled short positions.
Heikin-Ashi:
The Heikin-Ashi confirms the bearish movement last week and the touch of the Kijun, which instead with regular candles was overcome.
Supports and resistances:
- 29800.00 Chikou cusps and flat areas of Kijun and Tenkan
- 25000.00 Fibonacci
- 24800.00 Chikou cusps and flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan
- 24400.00 Chikou cusps and flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan
- 24200.00 Chikou cusps and flat areas of Kijun and Tenkan
- 23300.00 Chikou cusps and flat areas of Kijun and Tenkan
- 21200.00 Chikou cusps and flat areas of Kijun and Tenkan
- 20200.00 Chikou cusps and flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan
- 19100.00 Fibonacci
For static price levels, the lower right chart plots the Tenkan, Kijun, Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B flat zones on different timeframes, and the Chikou for the daily time frame.
For dynamic price levels, the Ichimoku lines can be observed: the Tenkan Sen (short term), the Kijun Sen (medium term) as well as the Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B (long term).
Conclusions:
The situation is bullish/lateral.
Hosoda waves calculated on an ABC pattern representing sideways momentum shows the following price levels on the waves: 26245 (NT), 22346 (N), 18447 (E), 17452 (V).
From a fundamental point of view, the week generally closed with a sign of weakness in the markets despite the fact that equities closed slightly higher, while BTC closed a down week in anticipation of a potential recovery. In general, U.S. employment data are positive but U.S. GDP is not.
It is important to assess the price close during the week on the following price structures:
- Bullish: 24400.00-24800.00
- Bearish/Sideways: 23300.00
Altcoin Cycle:
For Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Cycle, we can consider the weekly variation:
- Total cryptocurrency market capital: Decreased.
- Dominance of BTC: Decreased.
- Price of BTC: Decreased.
- Alt cycle expectation: Stable.
Thanks for your attention, happy to support the TradingView community.
Indicators used:
Analysis Tool
Kijun Trend Indicator
Ichimoku Support and Resistance
Chikou Support and Resistance
AUDIO : THE DCA CYCLE COIN THAT ARE ABLE TO RUN $2 USDwe made since today a new study on the DCA coins that have a cycle with the possibility to increase the coming time for the year 2023.
We found out that AUDIO has a high chance to increase to targets of $0,66 and in a better trend way to a high target of $2 USD.
This coin shows a pattern of increase depending on the study, further it shows a DCA trend that could bring this coin into new breakouts.
We will follow this coin and see how far it can go.
For the short term, AUDIO is at a point where it can break out to $0,31 into short term.
This update is a view for 2023
The market can go up and down, but it's about the general view, and that is that this coin has a high chance of breakout in the coming time.
a real cycle coin comes always with a strong increase back also when it breakdown with the main market.
My thoughts about BTC bottoming Last several years I've been using many tools to analyze, and try to take advantage of opportunities in terms of long-term market structure on BTC .
One of the main tools I really like to use and came with the most reward so to speak, is a specific Fib level. It proved to read with a very good probability the potential bottom of BTC ( especially BTC ) on the higher timeframes.
As you can see on the chart, each cycle has a corresponding fib plotted which starts at the H and goes to the L of that particular cycle. The fib levels presented are only 2, with the green one being the "default", and the gray one being a secondary, only touched once, after a crisis-like moment in 2011. I believe this year we will be seeing it again, so the chart plots both levels and my expectation is that the bottom would be somewhere inside the range of $8K to $13K by end of Q3 2023. The projection coincides with a potential additional drop of the stock market this year, and the overall macroeconomic conditions we are living through.
We will see how things play out, but I am building confidence on the usefulness of these levels.
Gme looking good
Some people have been worried about NYSE:GME and if the cycles were dead. Good news gme looks to still be on the cycle. Bad news Nov opex was in November. Shocked Pickachu face. After falling from the August run up gme stayed flat (1) while other meme stocks like NYSE:AMC and NASDAQ:TSLA fell (2). Because gme didn't get shorted it had a weak barely noticeable Nov Opex. however, as you can see other meme stocks did have a Nov opex (and you can even see gme did too albeit a small one). No shorting no opex. This may be disappointing for people still waiting for it. Good news however is after Nov opex all the meme stocks got shorted (3) and we seem to in the middle of bouncing from that (4). In short gme was dead sept 7th -dec 7th but now appears to be back on track.
Gamestop correlates strongly with inverse VIX. Correlation broke on Oct 31st 2022 for some reason and restored Jan 6th 2023.I believe we may be playing out the Vix movement from Oct 31st onwards delayed. VIX has gone down since then so we should go up.Vix has kept its trend and should go lower today and Gme should pop today. I believe we may be playing out delayed price action from when correlation broke (labeled with a 4) Would like to see a 10% up day and to break 24 today. Other meme stocks have rebounded to the price level they were at before they got shorted down. I expect gme to eventually get back to $25-$27. Depending on optiion interest that could cause a large run up past that. Also, ftd's have started on gme again stocksera.pythonanywhere.com and are due in febuary further helping gme. all in all, it's been a rough several months, but everything is looking really good for a run on gme soon.
2023-2024 Forecast - from Dow Jones 2000-2002 dot com RoadmapThis is a chart of the Dow Jones 2000-2002 dot com bubble market overlaid on the Australian share price index, but really, this Dow Jones market could be laid upon a number of U.S. indices and you would still find a high level of correlation.
The forecast dates are unlikely to align. The overlaid will need to be pushed and pulled forwards a backwards by a number of months to achieve 1, 2 or possibly 3 'best-fit' potential outcomes.
The major low is generally more likely to aligning with a secondary low (a low just before or after the major low), or possibly one of the highs between the lows.