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BTCUSD- CRITICAL LEVEL FOR THE LAST W1 CLOSING !WEEKLY (W1) Another high volatility price action seen last week between a low of 34'324 and a high of 40'330... which provided, several TACTICAL TRADING OPPORTUNITY IN A BROAD BEAR TREND WHICH RESTARTED TWO WEEKS AGO @ 45'850 !!! Failure to hold above the psychological 40'000 and close above 40'225 which is the middle level of the previous weekly long black candle should be seen as an additional negative signal. Indeed, the last weekly closing level @ 37'712 was just slightly above the weekly clouds bottom support @ 37'360 which means, that once again, CLOUDS should be watch at very carefully. THIS WEEKLY CLOSING WAS BELOW THE TENKAN-SEN (40'268) WHICH ALSO COINCIDES ROUGHLY WITH THE 40'222 IMPORTANT RESISTANCE LEVEL PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. RSI below 50, @ 40.80. LAGGING LINE below both Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen and currently, roughly in the middle of the clouds ! In this weekly time frame, LEVELS TO WATCH AT, ARE THE FOLLOWING : UPSIDE : R1 : 40'268 R2 : 42'170 R3 : 43'937 DOWNSIDE : S1 : 37'516 S2 : 35'020 S3 : 32'950 A FAILURE TO HOLD ABOVE THE FORMER LOW @ 32'950 WOULD DIRECTLY PUT THE FOCUS TOWARDS THE PSYCHOLOGICAL 30'000 LEVEL AHEAD OF THE MOST AND VERY, VERY, VERY IMPORTANT 28'600 LEVEL (DOUBLE TOP TRIGGER LEVEL !!!) DAILY (D1) Last daily closing (37'712) below the clouds (38'050) but was just slightly above the Daily Tenkan-Sen @ 37'397. The Tenkan-Sen should be seen as a good support indicator in this daily time frame as a failure to hold on a daily basis closing above it would open the door for lower level towards the 37'000 area which is the bottom of the price action seen over the last couple of days. A daily closing below 37'000 would be another negative signal for the upcoming trading sessions the 37'000-35'000/34324 trading range looks very fragile ! RSI below 50, @ 4125 LAGGING LINE below the Kijun-Sen but still slighly above the Tenkan-Sen. 4 HOURS (H4) After having roughly tested the 37'000 support level (intraday low so far being 37'015), below the H4 clouds support, the BTC is currently attempting to recover. Currently above the Kijun-Sen @ 37'327 (also 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last 34'324-40'330 rally) BUT below the Tenkan-Sen @ 38'451 and the Mid Bollinger Band @ 38'817. THE MID BOLLINGER BAND and the TOP OF THE 4 HOURS CLOUDS CURRENTLY @ 39'755 SHOULD BE SEEN AS THE LEVELS TO BREAK IN ORDER TO CONFIRM THIS SHY RECOVERY. On the DOWNSIDE, a failure to hold on a H4 closing basis above 37'000 would also be an additional warning signal calling for further downside towards 36'618 (61.8% Fib ret) ahead of 35'609 (78.6% Fib extension) in this H4 time frame. RSI below 50, @ 44.64 LAGGING LINE still above KS and TS Last but not least, watch the last price action seen over the last 2 candles (2 successive DOJIS) which means growing uncertainty and indecision !!! HOURLY (H1) Below the clouds, the Mid Bollinger Band and the Kijun-Sen. Just above the Tenkan-Sen @ 37'696 In this H1 time frame watch 37'696-37'400 as the first support zone and on the upside watch the cluster @ 38'450-38'500 ahead of the clouds resistance area 39'000-39'200 CONCLUSION : The BITCOIN remains in a BROAD STRATEGIC BEAR TREND and is for the time being, STRATEGICALLY SPEAKING, A SELL ON RALLY AND NOT YET A BUY ON DIPS !!! Nevertheless, as already mentioned several times, there are plenty of TACTICAL COUNTERTREND TRADING OPPORTUNITIES which should monitored and managed accordingly in applying a strict and appropriate RISK MANAGEMENT approach and this depending of your targets and your time frame !!! Do you like my analysis and do you find that it add some value of your trading activity, so, please do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow me yet, please do not forget either do add IRONMAN8848 on your following list on TradingView. For those who do not have access to TradingView, (at the moment, the best charting application) you can click on the following link (several plans available :-) : www.tradingview.com Many thanks in advance.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTCUSD-50% FIB RET @ 40'087 FILLEDWEEKLY (w1) The 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 40'087 of the last downside move (45'850-34'324) has been filled , intra-day high being 40'330. Upcoming weekly closing level will be very important for further development; indeed, a weekly closing above 40'225 would trigger a PIERCING LINE PATTERN, which would be a first positive bullish signal for the next week. DAILY (D1) Currently roughly in the middle of the clouds resistance zone with its top level @ 42'524 which remains, on a DAILY BASIS, the pivot level to break. Last daily closing @ 39'231, just slightly below the TENKAN-SEN @ 39'264. The KIJUN-SEN @ 40'087 has briefly been broken on the recent price action but the BTC, failed, so far to hold above it ! There is a POTENTIAL SHOOTING STAR IN PROGRESS (wait daily closing level for validation or invalidation !) On the DOWNSIDE , the first significant support area remains the former congestion zone between 38'350 and 37'000. TS is @ 37'660 and daily clouds bottom @ 37'410. The LAGGING LINE is attempting to breakout both KS and MBB. RSI still below 50, @ 46.71 On the UPSIDE , THE 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is @ 41'447 ahead of the KEY PIVOT RESISTANCE LEVEL @ 42'524 previously mentioned. 4 HOURS (H4) Currently in the clouds zone (38'364-40'577) The TENKAN-SEN @ 38'826 which currently coincides with the ongoing short term uptrend line) is working as the first support level, area of the MID BOLLINGER BAND @ 37'907 and then the KIJUN-SEN @ 37'327 . RSI is moving sideways and showing some lack of momentum... 1 HOUR (H1) Currently in a RSI BEARISH DIVERGENCE MODE ! Watch carefully the H4 clouds bottom support zone @ 39'330 (in overlay in the hourly chart) ahead of the cluster of MBB and KS @ 39'200-39'180 as short term barometer indicators ! (closing basis) The H1 clouds support area is between 37'500 and 37'000 and for information the 50% Fibonacci Retracement of the last rally from 34'324 towards 40'330 is @ 37'327 CONCLUSION : Watch and monitor closely intraday short term time frames which would help you to validate or invalidate implications above mentioned in W1, D1 and H4 Have a great weekend and all the best. Take care. IRONMAN8848. & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
Precious Metals vs Top Cryptos Reaches Golden CrossThis custom chart of precious metals Gold and Silver versus cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Etherium (each in their respective ratios) has reached a Golden Crossing (50DMA moving above 200DMA) for the first time in over 2 years. I've been amazed at this dynamic custom chart and the patterns that come through here. I find that it's often easier to do technical analysis on charts where traders aren't already using TA to trade. Some say it's a self-fulfilling prophecy, but it seems clear to me that it TA works even better in places where other people aren't really using it (which would suggest the opposite is true). But I digress... This golden cross is BULLISH From the looks of it, PMs may command a higher increase in value for the next 2 to 4 years. There is an easy way to trade between cryptos and gold/silver. I prefer the Kinesis platform. The PMs that they have on blockchain are actually allocated contracts in the name of the holder. What's more is you can take delivery if you so choose, or store it and gain yields. There's 5 different ways to make yields on your metals, but you'll have to watch the videos to learn about them. kms.kinesis.money I'm not saying sell all your cryptos (none of this is financial advice btw). But it seems wise to have a plan like that in order. Or you can use the platform to set your buys and sells so you can sleep well at night knowing that when these markets move they will be working in your favor. Stay safe out there!
TVC:GOLDLong
by greenvention
BTC-AS EXPECTED HIGH VOLATILITY OCCURED...As expected and mentioned in my previous analysis published yesterday morning we saw an increasing volatility which triggered a trading range between 34'324 reached early yesterday morning towards an intraday high @ 39'720. WEEKLY (W1) Main levels to look in this weekly time frame remains : UPSIDE : 42'524 /43'673 DOWNSIDE : 37'365 DAILY (D1) Currently in the bottom of the clouds. BUT STILL BELOW THE TENKAN-SEN @ 39'264, the KIJUN-SEN @ 40'087 and the MID BOLLINGER BAND @ 41'244 The 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 39'554 of the last downside move has been filled with an intraday high @ 39'720. There is a daily congestion support zone to look at, between 38'450 and 37'000... the daily clouds bottom support being currently @ 37'325 RSI below 50 @ 43.39 4 HOURS (H4) A BULLISH DIVERGENCE triggered the big rally and in this H4 time frame the BTC is currently above the TS and MBB @37'022) and above the Mid Bollinger Band @ 37'419. Neverteless, still below the H4 clouds resistance zone which is between 40'177 and 41'379 RSI above 50 @ 56.44 1 HOUR (H1) WARNING ! Bearish RSI divergence in progress ! Tenkan-Sen in support @ 38'395 in this short term intraday hourly time frame ahead of MBB @ 37'203 (which is also the ongoing short term uptrend support line) and the Kijun-Sen @ 37'022. A failure to hold, on H1 closing basis,above the Tenkan-Sen @ 38'395, would be the first warning signal of potential reversal and a breakout of the 37'000 area would give confirmation for further downside ! CONCLUSION : Despite the sharp rally seen yesterday, THE BTC IS STILL, STRATEGICALLY SPEAKING, in a BEAR TREND , and recent price action, was still a CORRECTIVE MOVE IN A BROAD STRATEGIC BEAR TREND A DAILY CLOSING ABOVE THE TENKAN-SEN @ 39'265 WOULD BRING THE FIRST WARNING SIGNAL OF A BOTTOM IN PLACE HAVING IN MIND THAT, AS LONG AS THE TOP OF THE CLOUDS @ 42'524 WILL NOT BE CLEARLY BROKEN ON THE DAILY BASIS... THE DOWNSIDE RISK WILL REMAIN ! IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
3
BTC-D1-WATCH THE CLOUDS & RSI !As expected and mentioned in my previous analysis, the recovery attempt has been short lived and the failure to recover above the 39'000 area triggered a new wave of selling pressure which pushed sharply down the BTC towards an intraday low of 34'324 !!! After this sharp decline, it is likely to see some little recovery which, in this broad bearish strategic picture, should be seen as a corrective move only. Watch H4 and H1 for tactical view. STRATEGIC VIEW : MONTHLY (M1) Ongong bearish picture. Currently below the CLUSTER OF MBB (36'704) AND KIJUN-SEN (36'425) 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 28''737 78.6 % Fib ret extension @ 17'792 RSI converging to the downside WEEKLY (W1) Currently below the clouds ! Next significant support level @ 32'950 former low ahead of the psychological 30'000 level. THE VERY IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVEL REMAINS 28'600 0 WHICH IS : 1) The Double top trigger level (Warning, warning and warning ¨) 2) Roughly the 61.8% Fibonacci retraccemtnt (28'737) of the big 3'850-69'000 rally. This level should really be seen as THE KEY PIVOT LEVEL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMEN T and it is likely to be difficult to break straightly ! A CLEAR AND SUSTAINABLE BREAKOUT OF 28'600 WOULD CREATE GREAD DAMAGE FOR THE BTC WHICH IS ALREADY CURRENTLY IN TROUBLE, HAVING IN MIND, OF COURSE, A LONG TERM BROAD PICTURE.... DAILY (D1) Below the clouds. Lagging line below the Tenkan-Sen @ 39'457, the Kijun-Sen @ 40'087 and the MBB @ 41'203 Watch price action on RSI In this daily time frame, only a clear recovery above 39'350, (as already mentioned in my previous analysis) would force to a view reassessment of the still ongoing downside strategic move... TACTICAL VIEW : 4 HOURS (H4) Currently below the clouds (41'339-42'117) Watch former low @ 36'370 as the first warning indicator of a potential intraday short term reversal. Then 36'823, 37'237 ahead of 37'656. A clear breakout of the MBB @ 37'656 would be constructive on this H4 time frame Watch also RSI price action to detect bullish divergence ! 1 HOUR (H1) Currently below the clouds too (37'755-37'931) TS @ 36'092 KS @ 36'813 (which is also the H4 Tenkan-Sen !) Watch the Mid Bollnger Band, currently @ 37'308 CONCLUSION : Al already mentioned several times in my previous analysis, there are, in this high volatility environment, plenty of tactical trading opportunities BUT NEVER FORGET TO ACT ACCORDINGLY WHEN YOU INITIATE POSITIONS COUNTERTREND AND PLACE STOP LOSSES DEPENDING ON YOUR TARGET AND YOUR TIME FRAME !!! Have a nice trading day All the best and take care IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC-D1-STRATEGIC PICTURE REMAINS HEAVY!DAILY (D1) The BTC is currently below : 1) the weekly clouds 2) the daily clouds still slightly above the monthly clouds bottom, currently @ 36'061. Yesterday's closing level @ 37'076, below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (37'877) ! Persisting selling pressure which is likely to push the BTC lower towards the next support level around the 37'000 area (lower recent daily closing level) ahead of the 78.6 % Fibonacci retracement extension @ 35'710. RSI below 50, @ 33.96. still converging to the downside The LAGGING LINE crossed under the Tenkan-Sen. GLOBAL PICTURE REMAINS, STRATEGICALLY HEAVY ! Recoveries attempts seen over the last couple of days have been short lived with an upside potential pretty limited, providing better level to sell the BTC. That is why, as already mentioned several times, it is very important to be very disciplined in trading tactically, countertrend, against the strategic downtrend.Do not forget to place stop losers accordingly in respecting the rule of the Risk Reward Ratio !!! Looking to the UPSIDE, the daily clouds (39'350-42'500) should be seen as the main resistance area in which you will find intermediate resistance levels which are the following : R1 : 40'577 R2 : 40'680 R3 : 41'465 4 Hours (H4) Currently below KS, MBB and TS. Watch RSI price action on closing basis level (potential bullish divergence in progress) should be confirmed ! 1 Hour (H1) Same comment than H4 , watch next closing level which will validate or invalidate a potential RSI bullish divergence. CONCLUSION : In this strategic downward trend, tactical trading opportunities will appear but as already told, stay cautious and use a strict RISK MANAGEMENT APPROACH IN FONCTION OF THE TIME FRAME YOU ARE LOOKING FOR ! Have a nice trading day. Alll the best and take care. IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC-61.8% FIB RET@37'877 NEARLY FILLED!WEEKLY (W1) The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 37'877 has roughly been filled with an intraday reached yesterday 37'974... Nevertheless, global picture remains heavy ! Indeed, last week price action triggered a LONG BLACK CANDLE with its closing level nearly at its bottom which is usually a bearish confirmation of the ongoing trend. In addition, the previous candle was already, as mentioned last week, a first warning reversal signal ( SHOOTING STAR !) IN THIS WEEKLY TIME FRAME LEVELS TO LOOK AT ARE THE FOLLOWING : UPSIDE : 42'524 (TENKAN-SEN) AHEAD OF THE TOP OF WEEKLY CLOUDS DOWNSIDE : 37'260 (WEEKLY CLOUDS BOTTOM) DAILY (D1) Last closing below the Daily clouds ! RSI @ 39.93 (no bullish divergence yet in this daily time frame !) After having nearly filled the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement , it is usual to see a recovery attempt which is currently in progress... Daily closing later on today, will give in this time frame the temperature for the upcoming trading sessions ; indeed, a daily closing above the bottom of the clouds (also the middle of the yesterday's black candle) will trigger a PIERCING LINE pattern, which would be the first signal of a reversal continuation. A daily closing above the opening of the previous candle (40'000) would even give additional value for further upside as in this case we would have a BULLISH ENGULFING PATTERN ! Next significant resistance being the TS and the Mid Bollinger Band ("My barometer"), currently, respectively @ 41'400 &41600 On the downside, a failure to hold above the former low @ 37'974 would open the door for lower levels towards the 35'000 area first ahead of 32'950 (January low). 4 HOURS (H4) Successive dois, finally triggered this upside recovery attempt; currently facing the first significant resistance level in the 4 hours time frame, which is the Mid Bollinger Band , currently @ 39'650 ! A sustainable move and H4 closing above 39'650, would temporary neutralize this ongoing downside risk which is still weighing on the BTC. HOURLY (H1) Ongoing short term recovery in progress...with the first obstacle (hourly clouds) which should firstly be broken in order to confirm further upside... 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ot the last downside move is @ 39'540 ! CONCLUSION : As usual, watch and monitor closely price action from shorter intraday time frames, which will help you to validate or invalidate the implications previously mentioned in longer time frames. HAVE A NICE WEEK :-) Take care and all the best IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC-D1-FOLLOW THE CLOUDS...DAILY (D1) Yesterday's price action (DOJI) is confirming this ongoing persisting downside move ! Indeed, the expected short term recovery has been short lived, providing better selling opportunity. The BTC nearly filled the 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 39'400 /intraday low being so far @ 39'492 and global picture remains heavy. Interesting to look at the shape of the daily clouds which still have some space to the downside for the upcoming daily trading sessions and also, important to note that the daily bottom clouds area coincides roughly with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement 37'877 and therefore should be seem as an important support level and as a pivot point in this daily time frame. On the upside, the daily pivot point remains @ 42'500 (top of the clouds !) with an intermediate resistance level between 39'500 and 40'000 WEEKLY (W1) Weekly closing level will give more clues about further development as, for the time being, it is not very encouraging either... SHORTER TIME FRAMES : As usual, watch and monitor shorter intraday time frames to get early signal of a BULLISH DIVERGENCE, which could provide short term tactical trading buying opportunities(countertrend !) and which should be protected with a trailing stop loss accordingly !!! Have a nice weekend, take care and all the best. Ironman8848. & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC-H4-DOUBLE TOP @ 39'552 FILLED !4 HOURS (H4) The double top target @ 39'552 has been filled with an intraday low @ 39'450, roughy also filled the 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 39'400 mentioned in my previous analysis. No bullish divergences detected so far ! Lagging line below the clouds too. RSI below 50, @ 34.09 Nevertheless, after this nice decline, it is likely, on short term to see and this is what currently is happening, some short term corrective recovery which is expected to be pretty limited in this broad bearish strategic structure. Indeed, looking ahead, the Tenkan-Sen @ 40'338 in this H4 time frame, is the first resistance level to look at on a H4 closing basis as a sustainable move above this level would open the door for higher levels towards R2 @ 41'487 ahead the pivot level on H4 @ 42'117. A successful recovery above 42'117 (H4 closing basis) would put the focus (once again...) to the CLOUDS RESISTANCE AREA (42750-43'500) interesting to note that 42'747 is the 61.8% Fib ret of the last downside move starting @ 44'785 towards 39'450. DOWNSIDE : A successful breakout of the 39'400, as already mentioned in my previous analysis would directly put the focus on the next support level, which is 37'877 (very fragile zone between 39'400 and 37'877-mirror effect of the long white candle seen during the trading session of February 4th, and ahead of 37'510 (78.6 % Fibonacci retracement extension) DAILY (D1) T he DAILY CLOUDS, for the time being rejected the downside breakout attempt and for now the levels to watch on this daily picture are, ONCE AGAIN THE CLOUDS, respectively and currently : UPSIDE : 42'525 DOWNSIDE : 39'500 A BREAKOUT OF ONE OF THOSE LEVEL ON A DAILY CLOSING BASIS WILL CONFIRM THE DIRECTION FOR THE UPCOMING DAILY TRADING SESSIONS !!! As usual, watch and monitor closely, intraday shorter time frames to get clues which will validate or invalidate scenarios implications previously explained. Have a nice Saturday and take care Ironman8848. & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC-D1-WATCH THE CLOUDS...ONCE AGAIN !DAILY (D1) Yesterday's price action triggered a long black bearish candle which went (as expected,see my previous analyisis) down towards the clouds bottom support level @ 40'088 ! BTC is currently below : 1) the Tenkan-Sen or Conversion line (TS) 2) the Mid Bollinger Band (MBB) 3) the ongoing former uptrend support line (in green) Nevertheless, still above : 1) The Kijun-Sen (KS) @ 39'400 which is also the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last 32'950-45'850 rally seen recently from Jan 24th to Feb 10th RSI below 50, @ 46.24 Lagging line testing the MBB and the KS , which for the time being act as supports. CONCLUSION ON A DAILY BASIS : Watch carefully, ONCE AGAIN, at the clouds ! Indeed, such kind of information is very powerful, and will give you the next direction... Therefore, there are two levels to look at very carefully on a DAILY CLOSING BASIS which are the following : UPSIDE : 42'525 (DAILY TOP CLOUDS RESISTANCE AREA) DOWNSIDE : 39'400 (DAILY BOTTOM CLOUDS SUPPORT AREA & LAST BUT NOT LEAST THE 50% FIB RET and the KS TOO) A sustainable recovery move above MBB, currently @ 41'489, would, temporary neutralise this ongoing persisting downside risk. While a failure to hold above 39'400 would put the focus on 37'877 being the 61.8% Fib ret ahead of 35'710 (78.6% Fibonacci extension). 4 HOURS (H4) Below the clouds, the psychological 40'000 support level, nearly filled with a yesterday's low @ 40'088 Below the TS, KS and MBB too. RSI far below 50 @ 33.07 with NO BULLISH DIVERGENCE DETECTED SO FAR ! , meaning current reversal price action should only be seen as a corrective move. The Lagging line is below the clouds too. Looking at potential tactical corrective recovery, we can identify the following targets : R1 : 41'211 R2 : 41'907 R3 : 42'469 (50% FIB RET 44'850-40'088 & DAILY CLOUDS TOP AREA @ 42'525) R4 : 43'030 To the downside, as mentioned previously in D1, a breakout of 39'400 would put the BTC in a very fragile zone (mirror effect of the long white candle seen on Feb 4th (37'325-39'840)! CONCLUSION : Watch and monitor closely price action on shorter intraday time frames to get more clues and intermediate signal (s) which will help you to validate or invalidate implications above mentioned. FINALY, LAST BUT NOT LEAST DO NOT FORGET, WHEN YOU TRADE TACTICALLY IN COUNTERTREND TO ADOPT A DISCIPLINED RISK MANAGEMENT APPROACH IN PLACING STOP LOSSES ACCORDINGLY AND IN ADOPTING ALSO A TRAILING STOP STRATEGY !!! GOOD LUCK :-) Have a nice day and take care Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC-H4/H1- ONGOING DOWNTREND IN PROGRESS !4 HOURS (H4) Recent price action is showing that, for the time being the top clouds support area (43'325), rejected two successive breakout attempts (43'312 and 43'367) with its H4 closing level, respectively @ 43'650, but directly neutralised by the next white long candle (bullish engulfing pattern) with a failure of confirmation on this potential ongoing upside move. Therefore, there is no change in my view which is to watch in this H4 time frame (on a closing basis level) the following points : UPSIDE. : 44'785 DOWNSIDE : 43'420/43'325 RSI stil above 50, @ 55.10...but still pointing to the South ! A BREAKOUT (H4 closing basis !) OF ONE OF THOSE TWO LEVELS WILL SHOW THE DIRECTION and watch the clouds... 1 HOUR (H1) Copy paste of yesterday's picture... but slightly lower. Indeed the cluster of TS, MBB and KS is moving slightly down and is currently between 44'067 and 43'860 and already within the H1 clouds support zone ! A failure to stay(H1 closing basis) above KS (43'860) would put the focus on the ongoing very short term uptrend support line, currently @ 43'550 ahead of the H1 clouds support bottom @ 43'180 Next support area being the 4 hours clouds (in overlay(green) on this H1 chart (43'325-41'565) DAILY (D1) Still attempting to upside breakout the clouds (currently around the former high @ 45'850 and still supported by the Tenkan-Sen @ 43'712 A daily closing below 43'712 would be the first warning signal of a reversal in this daily time frame towards lower levels (cluster support of MBB (41'527) and ongoing daily support trend line (41'396). Failure to hold above the cluster would put the focus towards the next significant support level @ 39'400 (KS and 50% of Fibonacci retracement of the last 32'950-45'850 with minor intermediate support @ 40'000 (psychological ¨) Do you like my analysis ? If the answer is YES, please do not forget : 1) to like it 2) for those who did not follow me yet on Trading View, please add Ironman8848 on your following list 3) and for those who do not have a T rading View access (the best charting application available at the moment ! , please do not hesitate to sign up (different levels :-) , in clicking on the following link : www.tradingview.com Many thanks in advance. KInd regards Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC-H4/H1- AT CRITICAL LEVELS !4 HOURS (H4) Above the 4 hours clouds, supported by the ongoing H4 uptrend support line and currently under the new downtrend resistance line. Watch : Upside : former high @ 44'785 Downside : ongoing support trend line (currently around 43'650 which is also the top of the 4 hours clouds. A breakout of one of those 2 levels will show further direction RSI showing some uncertainty and indecision around the ongoing downtrend line resistance too ! 1 hour (H1) Currently supported on very short term (H1) by the cluster of MBB, TS KS and TS) A failure to stay and hold on a hourly closing basis above this cluster (44'140-44'170) would be the first warning signal of a short term reversal move, calling for the reenter, firstly in the 4 hours clouds (in overlay on the 4 hours chart in green) ahead of the hourly clouds support area, below between 43'250 and 42'900 Looking briefly at the DAILY PRICE ACTION, we can see an attempt to breakout the clouds with a long white candle triggered yesterday, which for the time being is not confirming this yesterday's bullish price action. Watch today's closing level which should give more clues and validate or validate this long white bullish candle seen yesterday. A clear breakout of the DAILY CLOUDS (on a daily closing basis !) would be very positive for further development, opening the door for the upside towards higher levels. Have a nice trading day Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC-D1-TENKAN-SEN IN RESISTANCE !DAILY (D1) After having reached, yesterday an intraday low @ 41'575, the BTC recovered to close @ 42'077 in making a "small" BULLISH ENGULFING pattern. Ongoing price action is showing a first important resistance to break, which is the TENKAN-SEN or Conversion Line @ 43'712 and this, of course on a daily closing basis ! Looking on the downside, the BTC, in this daily time frame is supported by the cluster of both the Mid Bollinger Band (my Barometer !) and by the ongoing daily uptrend support line, currently around 40'830. Therefore, in this daily time frame, supports and resistance levels to watch are the following : DOWNSIDE : S1 : 41'575 (yesteday's intraday low) S2 : 40'833 ( MBB) - 38.2% Fib ret @ 40'922 S3 : Kijun-Sen or Base line @ 39'400 - 50 % Fib ret UPSIDE : R1 : 43'712 R2 : 45'850 (Former high) R3 : 48'000 (78.6% Fib ret of the 52'098-32950 downside move) CONCLUSION : 1. Watch the DAILY CLOUDS on the upside 2. Watch the MID BOLLINGER BANDS on the downside A clear breakout, ON A DAILY CLOSING BASIS , of one of those levels would open the door for a move of 5'000 points, targeting respectively the psychological 50'000 level on the upside and the 35'000 area on the downside, which coincides with the lower daily closing level seen in January 22nd. 4 HOURS (H4) Currently above the Mid Bollinger Band (ongoing long white candle !) and attempting to test and potentially breakout the top of the 4 hours clouds resistance area @ 44'090. RSI is above 50 @ 60.31, no bearish divergence detected in this H4 time frame yet. An H4 closing above the clouds would be the first positive signal for further upside in this H4 time frame 1 HOUR (H1) Last 1 hour trading (long white candle) confirmed in this time frame the upside clouds breakout, filling on its way the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement @ 43'208.(intraday high so far @ 43'661) Next resistance being the 50% Fib ret @ 43'712 (also the level of the Tenkan-Sen on the daily chart !) RSI is also above 50 @ 69.36 and no bearish divergence detected so far either. As usual watch shorter intraday time frames which will give you a warning signal of a reversal or a validation of the trend continuation. Have a nice trading day. All the best and take care. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC-W1-SHOOTING STAR !WEEKLY (W1) Failure of the upside breakout of the weekly clouds triggered a SHOOTING STAR (reversal pattern !) ! In addition, the last weekly closing level @ 42'077 was also below the Tenkan-Sen (42'524) which is also an additional bearish signal calling for a trend reversal towards the bottom of the clouds and potentially lower. Next support to look at in this time frame are the following : S1 : 40'922 S2 : 39'400 (39'552 is the double top target mentioned in my yesterday's analysis !) S3 : 37'877 S4 : 35'710 Ongoing price action is showing a breakout attempt of the former uptrend support line (to be confirmed on a weekly basis, of course). Nevertheless, there is still a remaining positive point : the Lagging line is still above the weekly clouds and above the Tenkan-Sen... DAILY (D1) Below : 1) the clouds 2) the Tenkan-Sen still above : 1) the Mid Bollinger Band (the Barometer) @ 40'470 2) the ongoing daily uptrend support line (40'190) 3) the Kijun-Sen @ 39'400 (S2 on weekly) Watch the clouds and the Bollinger Band as leading indicators ! 4 HOURS (H4) DOUBLE TOP STILL IN PROGRESS (mentioned yesterday, see related idea below) with the clouds still in support. A breakout of the bottom of the clouds (40'900) also S1 on weekly chart would put the focus on lower levels previously mentioned in both weekly and daily analysis. ONLY A SUSTAINABLE MOVE ABOVE 43'500 WOULD NEUTRALISE THIS PERSISTING ONGOING DOWNWARD PRESSURE !!! As usual, watch and monitor closely shorter intraday time frame to get more clues which will validate or invalidate the implications previously mentioned. Be sure, if you act tactically in countertrend to adopt a disciplined trading strategy (Risk Reward ratio) and in placing stop loss (trailing) accordingly. Have a nice trading week. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC-H4-EN ROUTE FOR 39'552 !Today, we are going to look at the 4 hours chart which is showing several (at least 5 !) interesting things 1) Double top in progress 2) RSI bearish divergence 3) Doji top, followed by a bearish engulfing pattern 4) Breakout of the Mid Bollinger Band 5) Lagging line cross under the Kijun-Sen and last but not least, currently the BTC is already in the middle of the clouds in this 4 hours time frame. So what next ? On the UPSIDE , levels to watch now are the following : 1) Tenkan-Sen @ 42'387 2) The Mid Bollinger Band @ 43'159 3) The top of the clouds @ 43'526 and only a clear and sustainable recovery above 43'500 would temporary neutralise this persisting downside risk and postpone "for a while" this downward pressure... On the DOWNSIDE, next supports are the following : 1) 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 41'060 2) Psychological 40'000 level 3) 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 39'929 4) DOUBLE TOP TARGET @ 39'552 GLOBAL PICTURE REMAINS HEAVY !!! Looking briefly at longer time frames, it is not encouraging either : DAILY (D1) 1) DOUBLE TOP in the clouds 2) Currently below the clouds 3) Tenkan-Sen broken Nevertheless, still : 1) above the Mid Bollinger Band (@ 40'228) 2) above the ongoing support trend line (@ 40'000) 3) above the Kijun-Sen @ 39'400 4) the Lagging line is still stlightly above the Tenkan-Sen INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE LEVELS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE 4 HOURS ANALYSE ARE CORROBORATING THOSE MENTIONED ON THE DAILY ANALYSIS !!! WEEKLY (W1) A SHOOTING STAR is in progress (wait for weekly closing level) to validate or invalidate such kind of reversal pattern !!! Weekly Tenkan-Sen @ 42'524 CONCLUSION FOR THE WEEKLY TIME FRAME : A failure to close, above the clouds and the Tenkan-Sen would put additional selling pressure for the upcoming week with a focus on the weekly clouds bottom @ 37'360 which is also, roughly the former weekly downtrend line. Looking lower, IN THIS WEEKLY TIME FRAME there is not significant support area until the psychological 30'000 area ahead of the VERY, VERY, VERY, VERY IMPORTANT 28'600 SUPPORT LEVEL !!! Have a nice Sunday. By the way, if you like my analysis and if you find any added value on your trading activities, please do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow me yet on Trading View, please do not forget either to add Ironman8848 in your following list. And for those who do not have access to Trading View yet (from my personal point of view, the best charting application available at the moment) please do not hesitate to use the following link to sign up : www.tradingview.com Many thanks in advance. Ironman8848. & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848