Will Ethereum reach $8500 ?Ethereum (ETH) has been a focal point in the cryptocurrency world, drawing both admiration and skepticism. As Q4 unfolds, Ethereum has shown remarkable resilience, staying on its intended path despite market fluctuations. This article explores Ethereum's journey, its current standing, and the potential for it to reach the ambitious target of $8,500.
Everyone criticizing Ethereum should take note: ETH is still on track and hasn't deviated from its course. In Q4, Ethereum was never expected to reach new all-time highs (ATH). Despite performing better than anticipated, ETH remains steadfast on its intended path. It exhibited a bearish pattern, forming higher lows and lower highs before stabilizing. It then marked a higher low, established a bear market high, broke through this high, retested it just before Q4, and began its upward trajectory.
Here's how the forecasted ETH pattern looks—believe me, we're still on track. 📈
Ethereum's chart demonstrates a clear path forward, with key indicators suggesting sustained growth. The technical analysis points towards Ethereum reaching significant levels, with the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level being a crucial milestone.
I believe $8,500 is a realistic target for Ethereum, corresponding to the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level. The Fibonacci extension tool is commonly used in technical analysis to predict future price movements based on past price trends. The 2.0 Fibonacci extension level suggests that the price could potentially double from its previous move. In this case, reaching $8,500 fits within the expected range of this extension level, making it a plausible target.
When ETH's price reaches the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level, its market cap will be approximately $625 billion, reflecting a 155% increase. If the price continues to rise and reaches the 2.618 Fibonacci extension level, the market cap would soar to around $859 billion, marking a 214% increase. These levels are calculated based on today's price.
To all the Ethereum doubters out there: Keep talking while ETH keeps building. 📈 Your doubts fuel our progress. Watch and learn! 💪🔥
Ethereum's journey is far from over, and its resilience in the face of criticism only strengthens its position. As it continues to build and innovate, ETH is poised to reach new heights, potentially hitting the $8,500 mark and beyond.
Ethereum's path is filled with potential, and the signs are pointing towards significant growth. With the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level serving as a realistic target, $8,500 is within reach. Whether you're an investor or a skeptic, keeping an eye on Ethereum's progress is essential, as it continues to defy expectations and carve its path in the crypto world.
Cryptomarketcap
MARKETS week ahead: December 16 – 22Last week in the news
The ECB cut euro reference rates by 25 basis points, which the market expects also for Fed at their FOMC meeting on December 18th. Markets were traded in a relatively mixed manner during the previous week, positioning as per expectations for the forthcoming rate cut. The S&P 500 tested for one more time the recent ATH, however, ended the week a bit lower, at the level of 6.051. The price of Gold reverted a bit during the week, on US Dollar strengthening, closing the week at the level of $2.647. The US Treasuries were reacting on inflation data, in expectation of the forthcoming rate cut, where the 10Y benchmark yields returned shortly back toward the 4,4% level. The crypto market had a relatively mixed week, with BTC shortly tested the $95K support line, but ended the week above the $100K level.
The European Central Bank cut interest rates for another 25 basis points, as expected. The ECB is for some time struggling to achieve the inflation within the targeted level of 2%, and to sustain the Euro Zone economy which was hit by the environment of high interest rates. The ECB President Lagarde tried to stay optimistic, and pointed to the better-than-expected growth in Q3 and that “the economy should strengthen over time”. The latest ECB economic projections were also optimistic. It projects a growth of 1,1% in 2025, while inflation should move around targeted 2%. Still, it should be mentioned that these projections do not include effects of potential moves from the US newly elected President.
The company Broadcom was highly discussed in the news during the previous week. It was in the market stoplight due to the company's surge in the price of shares by 24% for the week, after the company published that its revenue generated through AI products soared by an incredible 220% for the quarter. At the same time, the company reached a $1 trillion club. At the moment analyst opinions are divided regarding the future prospects for this company. On one side, there are those who strongly support the opinion that the company's value will only grow amid increasing demand for AI chips, while on the other side are those who noting that it is a heavy field for one company to stay competitive to NVDA.
The US Nasdaq index, which follows the 100 largest US companies, announced that it is planning to include MicroStrategy in its latest yearly rebalancing of the index. Analysts are noting that this move will be positive for Michael Saylor`s company, as it will increase the demand for shares originating from exchange traded funds.
News is reporting that one of largest banks in France, Societe Generale has successfully conducted the first Repo transaction with the National Bank of France. Bonds were deposited on Ethereum blockchain, in exchange for the central bank digital currency.
Crypto market cap
During the previous week the crypto market was traded in a mixed manner. One of the supporting notes for BTC came from CEO of the BlackRock investment fund, Larry Fink, who noted his opinion that a diversified portfolio should contain up to 10% exposure in BTC. A strong demand for BTC still holds on the market, which helped this coin to return toward levels above the $100K, after modestly reverted to $95K. Still, total crypto market capitalization decreased by modest 2% during the end of the week, losing some $80B in value. Daily trading volumes also eased, reaching $279B on a daily basis, which is a drop from $405B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at $1.862B, which represents a 114% surge from the beginning of this year.
Most of the crypto coins were traded with a negative sentiment during the previous week. Still, the market was driven by BTC, in which sense, total weekly loss eased due to inflow in BTC of $ 26B, increasing its value by 1,3% on a weekly level. On the opposite side was ETH, with a weekly loss in the market cap of $19B or 3,95%. DOGE was also on a losing side, with a drop in value of $9,5B or more than 14%. ADA dropped by 12,2%, decreasing cap by $ 5B, while BNB ended the week down by 5,8%, losing $$6,2B. Among the highest losers in relative terms were coins like Bitcoin Gold, which dropped by 41% w/w, DASH, EOS, IOTA, DOT lost more than 20% in value, while the majority of other coins lost somewhere between 6% and 20%. Tether was one of rare coins which increased its market cap by 1,65%, increasing by this percentage the number of its coins on the market.
Increased activity within the field of circulating coins continues. The highest weekly increase came from SOL, which increased the number of circulating coins by 0,6%, and was followed by IOTA, with a surge of 0,5%. Thai week Filecoin increased the number of coins by 0,4%, while the majority of other coins had an increase of 0,1%.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures market reflected the sentiment from the spot market as of the end of the previous week. BTC short term futures were holding relatively flat compared to the previous week, while the longer term ones just modestly dropped by around 0,5%. However, futures maturing in December 2025 were traded almost flat to the week before, with closing price of $111.685, and $114.090 for maturity in March 2026.
ETH futures which are maturing as of the end of the year had a significant drop of 18% on a weekly level. The longer maturities had a lower weekly drop of around 3,5%. Futures maturing in December 2025 closed the week at the level of $4.242, while those maturing in March 2026 were last traded at $4.320.
Altcoin Market Cap - Target - 2.5 TrillionHow do determine if its the right time to out on Alt Coin trades? Easy. Look at total Crypto Market Cap, less ETH & BTC. Long term uptrend. Market Cap Just held support on long term up trend and If we are to truly enter the Banana Zone, I’m looking to $2.5 Trillion as the top end target. Once we are at higher timeframe oversold conditions (Weekly, Monthly) average out and take profits.
This could be where the $$$ is made…
MARKETS week ahead: December 9 – 16Last week in the news
A positive sentiment still holds on financial markets, but a star of the previous week was BTC. The value of BTC managed to cross the $100K level for the first time in history of this coin. The US equity markets also traded in a positive sentiment for the third consecutive week, with the S & P 500 reaching a fresh new all time highest level at 6.090. The US Dollar weakened a bit during the week, while the price of gold was traded sideways. The US mixed November jobs data supported market expectations over another 25bps Fed's rate cut, in which sense, the 10Y Treasury yields were traded to the downside, ending the week at 4,17%.
The US Non-farm Payrolls and unemployment data were the main macro data posted for the week. The results were pretty mixed as defined by the majority of macro analysts. The US added 227K new jobs in November, which was modestly above the market expectation. At the same time, unemployment reached 4,2% in November, a bit higher from 4,1% posted previously. The analyst described figures as “not too hot and not too cold”. Still, it did not change the current sentiment regarding the expectation over a 25 bps Fed's rate cut. As per CME FedWatch Tool, currently there are 85% odds that the Fed will cut at their December meeting, scheduled for December 17-18th.
The news that pushed BTC to the levels above the $100K target was a nomination of Paul S. Atkins as a new leader of the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Atkins previously served in the SEC, under the Bush administration, and is known as a supporter of free-market principles. He is also known as a supporter of Chamber of Digital Commerce, which supports bringing up the clear regulation in the US regarding the crypto currencies.
In a recent interview with CNBC, a CEO of MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor, noted that the company wants to take Treasury function for BTC holders. As the company already is providing bonds, convertible bonds, notes, options, backed with crypto assets, they indeed might take a higher role in the further development of the BTC market in the US. At the same time, at his X account, Michael Saylor posted that the company bought another 15.400 BTC at the price of $95.976, bringing it to total holdings of 402.100BTC.
The European Central Bank issued a second progress report on the digital Euro preparation phase. The report notes an update of the single rulebook with comments from consumers and business and also calls for applications to select potential external providers of the service.
Crypto market cap
The previous week was a significant one for the crypto market. The long awaited $100K target for BTC has been reached. Actually the new all time highest level for BTC currently stands at $103.813. The news that hit the market and also the crypto market to the upside was the announcement of the nomination of Paul S. Atkins as the new SEC Chair under the Trump administration. Atkins is known in the business circles as a person who supports a clear regulation of the crypto market, in which sense, the crypto investors are expecting some positive developments under his presidency. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by additional $ 230B, or 7% on a weekly basis. Daily trading volumes were again increased to the level of around $405B on a daily basis, from $320B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at $1.942B, which represents a 119% surge from the beginning of this year.
The majority of coins ended the week in green. Although BTC was certainly a star of the week, still, the altcoins were for one more time in the center of investors attention. Despite the new ATH, BTC ended the week by 2,8% higher from the week before, adding $55B to its market cap. ETH was another star of the week, as the coins managed to touch the $ 4K level, bringing its market cap higher by 7,3%, adding $ 33B to it. XRP continues to shine for the third week in a row. This week, XRP managed to add an additional 30% to its cap, increasing it by $33B. BNB had an excellent week, where its market cap increased by more than 14% or almost $14B. This week, Tron should be mentioned as the coin surged by 54% w/w, adding to its market cap $9,7B. Extraordinary week on the crypto market, where the majority of other altcoins managed to add somewhere between 15% and 30% in value.
Developments with circulating coins continue. This week Polygon should be especially mentioned, as it decreased the number of its coins in circulation by 12% w/w. On the opposite side were the majority of other altcoins. Tether had another good week, where the number of coins increased by additional 2,8%, increasing its market cap by this percentage. Filecoin had a surge of coins in circulation by 0,5%, while Maker had an increase of 0,4%.
Crypto futures market
Same as the spot market, the crypto futures market was quite happy with the nomination of Paul S. Atkins as a new SEC Chair. BTC short term futures were traded higher by 3%, while the longer term ones by more than 4%. Current structure of futures prices looks pretty positive, with December 2024 last traded at $101.580, and above the $100K target. December 2025 closed the week at the level of $111.715.
ETH futures had a stronger weekly push in the value of futures, which were traded by more than 12% higher from the week before. Futures maturing in December this year closed the week at the level of $4.068, the first time after many weeks, the price was closed above the $ 4K target. This level holds for other maturities, so December 2025 was last traded at $4.388.
$ETH Price Finally Hit $4000 and Take Profit 3 Done, See chartBINANCE:ETHUSDT Finally Price Hit $4000 and Take Profit 3 Done, See chart
Disclaimer: Digital asset prices are subject to high market risk and price volatility. The value of your investment may go down or up, and you may not get back the amount invested. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and Binance is not available for any losses you may incur. Past performance is not a reliable predictor of future performance. You should only invest in products you are familiar with and where you understand the risks. You should carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives and risk tolerance and consult an independent financial adviser prior to making any investment.
MARKETS week ahead: December 2 – 8Last week in the news
Regardless of a Thanksgiving Holiday in the US during the previous week, markets ended November with a positive sentiment. The US equity market ended its one of best months in the year, with the S & P 500 reaching its new all-time highest level at 6.040. Decreased geopolitical risks and strengthening of US Dollar, impact the price of gold to slow down a bit during the week, ending it around $2,670 level. In expectation of further Fed's rate cuts, the 10Y US Treasury yields dropped to the level of 4,17%. The crypto market remained with a positive post-election sentiment, where BTC tried for one more time to break the $100K level.
From the US macro perspective, there were two major events during the previous week, which impact market sentiment prior to Holidays. Fed's favorite inflation gauge was released, as well as FOMC Minutes from their November's meeting. The PCE data were in line with market expectations. The PCE price Index increased by 0,2% in November, reaching the yearly level of 2,3%. Core PCE remained smoothly elevated at the level of 0,3% for the month. At the same time, Personal Income was higher by 0,6% for the month, while Personal Spending was up by 0,4% for the month. The FOMC meeting minutes revealed conclusions of Feds members at their November meeting that if inflation continues further to slow down and if labour data continue to move in line with their expectations, this would be a solid case for further rate decrease. Current odds for 25 bps interest rate cuts stands at 66%, as per CME FedWatch Tool.
Another event that was closely watched by investors during the previous week is a shopping-holiday popularly called the Black Friday. First estimations showed that the spending of US customers climbed by 3,4% on a yearly basis. This year total e-commerce sales over the internet increased by an incredible 14,3% year-over-year, which shows a clear change of customer habits for incline purchase instead of shopping in stores.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley gave their projection of equities in China for the year 2025. As per their analysis, China can expect a relatively volatile equity market, with major threats mentioned “earnings pressure, geopolitical risks and potential tariffs”. At the same time, analysts see that exports will hold, due to competitive pricing, however, the housing market is expected to stay under pressure.
In an interview with CNBC, a VettaFi representative said that the next year belongs to small cap companies, in which sense, a small-cap index Russel 2000 could benefit the most. The environment of lower interest rates would be beneficial for further growth of these companies. Such sentiment started from November, where the index Russel 2000 gained 11%, and total 35% during the course of this year.
Crypto market cap
Although BTC was the star of the crypto market in the after-election period, still, the previous week belongs to altcoins, since now they are the ones to drive the total crypto market capitalization to the upside. Total crypto market capitalization increased by 2% on a weekly basis, where mostly altcoins managed to add some $70B. At the same time, daily trading volumes remained elevated, around $320B on a daily basis, modestly decreased from $412B traded two weeks ago. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at $1.712B, which represents a 105% surge from the beginning of this year.
During the previous week BTC was on a net losing side, decreasing its market cap by modest $ 20B or 1% on a weekly basis. Another altcoin that was driving the market to the downside was market favourite Solana, with a drop in value of 6% or $7.4B. ETH and XRP were coins which gained the most in nominal terms. ETH managed to add $34.8B to its market cap, increasing it by 8.4%. XRP continues to drive market attention, with this week's surge of 28.7%, adding another $24.5B to its market cap. ADA was another altcoin with solid weekly performance, with an increase in its cap by $ 1B or almost 3%. THETA should be especially mentioned this week, as the coin gained 62% on a weekly basis, and was traded at the level of $3.11. Such an increase was rare to see previously with THETA. In relative terms, market attention was standing with Algorand, which increased its value by 53.3%, Filecoin was up by 32%, Uniswap was traded higher by 17%, while Maker gained 12% w/w.
Increased activity with circulating coins continues. This week Polygon was on a negative side, with a decrease of total coins on the market by 3.9%. On the opposite side was Filecoin, with an increase by 0.8%, IOTAs number of coins increased by 0.5%, while Stellar added 0.2% of new coins. Tether should be especially mentioned, as this week stablecoin increased its number of coins by 1.4%, same as its market capitalization.
Crypto futures market
As of the end of the previous week, the crypto futures market eased a bit for BTC, in line with the spot market developments. BTC futures were traded more than 2% lower for all maturities. During the week, futures maturing in December 2024 reached the level of $100K, however, they are ending the week at $98.540. However, futures from February 2025 are holding above $100K, where December 2025 closed the week at $107.120.
On the opposite side were ETH futures which were traded in green by more than 8% for all maturities. December 2024 ended the week at the level of $3.631, while those maturing a year later were last traded at $3.894. It is important to note that futures maturing in March 2026 are nearing toward the $ 4K level, while the closing price was $3.966.
Potential Correction for the Cryptocurrency Market CapAccording to the chart you're viewing, there is a resistance zone (3.36T to 3.26T) ahead. Considering the bullish momentum in the last three candles, there is a possibility of a breakout. However, if the cryptocurrency market cap is going to undergo a correction before reaching the top of the bullish channel, I think this zone is where the correction will occur.
MARKETS week ahead: November 25 – December 1Last week in the news
The crypto and gold markets were in the spotlight of the markets during the previous week, considering that there has not been much significant US macro data posted. Investors' positive sentiment for BTC continues to hold, where BTC reached levels quite close to the $100K mark. Despite US strengthening, the price of gold returned to the levels above the $2,7K considering ongoing geopolitical risks. The US Treasury yields are waging current macro data, searching for a clue whether the Fed will skip rate cut in December. The 10Y benchmark yields modestly eased till the level of 4,4%. The US equities were also traded with a positive sentiment, but the investor attention is currently switched from tech giants toward the industrials and consumer sectors. The S&P 500 ended the week at the level of 5.969.
The news that spotted the most market attention during the previous week is that SEC Chair Gensler will step down from his current position on January 20th. In an official statement by the SEC, Gensler noted that during his mandate “the SEC has met our mission and enforced the law without fear or favor”. The crypto market reacted positively to this announcement. On the other hand, news from Saturday is that a new US President elected Donald Trump nominated Scott Bessent as a new Treasury Secretary in his administration. As a reasoning, Trump commented on Bassent as “one of the world's foremost international investors and geopolitical and economic strategists”.
The latest BTC rally toward the $100K certainly spotted market attention. However, there is an emerging number of analysts who are pointing toward the risks of investments in the crypto market, as they are pointing out that some investors might be confused by treating BTC in the same manner as gold. State Street Global Advisors are the latest to point to this distinction, pointing out that BTC does not offer stability as gold, calling the crypto narrative “manipulative”.
Tesla shares continue to gain, as well as the wealth of Elon Musk. Reuters reported that the US judge rejected the request from the US SEC to sanction Elon Musk for not appearing at the court-order testimony related to regulators probe over his takeover of Twitter.
A so-called Black Friday, a holiday shopping season is nearing, so investors used the previous week to open positions with companies in the retail sector. As the consumer sector showed signs of strength, the retailers revised their earnings forecasts for the end of this year. Analysts are certain that this year Black Friday might provide the real picture of actual strength of consumer spending in the US.
Crypto market cap
An interest in the crypto continues to hold investors on the market. A new record was reached during the previous week, where the total crypto market passed the value of $3 trillion for the first time in the history of this market. Actual value of the market as of the weekend stands at $3.28 trillion which represents an increase of 10% on a weekly basis, where there has been added a fresh new $285B to its value. Daily trading volumes also reached new historically highest values with a turnover of around $412B on a daily basis, which is a surge from $351B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at $1.642B, which represents a 100% surge from the beginning of this year.
During the previous week all coins gained in value, with some significant fund inflows in both major coins but also in other altcoins. BTC led the market with a surge in value of 7.7% on a weekly basis, adding a new $138B to its market cap. ETH followed the path, with an increase of 8.6% w/w in value or $32.8B. XRP continues to gain market attention since last week, with an increase from this week of 28% or $18.6B. ADA is among significant gainers, with a weekly gain in value of 39.8% or $10.6B. Market favourite Solana surged by 19.4% or $19.8B. During the previous week the absolute weekly winner was XRP, however, this week Stellar surged by an incredible 142.8% on a weekly basis, which was the highest weekly gain for this coin ever. Incredible weekly returns go on, where coins gained somewhere from 8% up to 20% or 30%.
There has also been increased activity when circulating coins are in question. First, Tether should be mentioned, as this stablecoin added 3.7% of new coins on the market, increasing by this number its total market cap. This week Solana added 0.6% of new coins to the market, while Filecoin and Maker number of coins surged by 0.4%.
Crypto futures market
Increased optimism from the spot market was evident also on the crypto futures market. Both BTC and ETH futures continued to gain for all maturities. Some new ATHs are evident with BTC long term futures.
BTC futures were traded by 8.5% on average higher. December 2024 ended the week at the level of $100.815, which is the first time that this maturity passed the level of $100K. At the same time futures maturing in December 2025 also reached their historically highest levels at $109.570. This is quite a positive sign for BTC over market expectations in the future period.
This week ETH futures also gained considerably, around 7% on average for all maturities. December 2024 ended the week at the level of $3.364, while futures maturing in December 2025 closed the week at $3.585. On a positive side for ETH is that all maturities managed to pass the $3K psychological level.
When the next altseason might happen?One usually refers to altcoins and mems flying high when talking about big profits and pumps. So, when the next alt season could happen? To answer this question, analysts usually examine ETH and the Crypto Total Market Cap (excluding BTC and ETH) charts to make a prediction. Moreover, I think it is worth analyzing the Dominance of altcoins (excluding BTC and ETH) as well. I already analyzed the ETH before and updating it periodically, so let's look at the Crypto Total Market Cap.
When looking at the Total Market Cap chart, it is evident that there was a downtrend in which lower lows were made one after another. Recently, in March 2023, a higher high and a higher low were made; a sign of a possible reversal. But, two higher highs and two higher lows are needed, at least, for the reversal confirmation. Furthermore, the value/price of the Total Market Cap must not breach the recent higher low. Based on the technical analysis, two possible scenarios can play out that are drawn on the chart.
SOL & Memes | Is Solana season here ?From Weekend Hero to Market King
Sol szn is here ? YESS, We are 70% up since our last analysis and recent data strongly suggests we might be entering the early days of SOL mania, Here’s why
1.SOL Outperformed BTC and ETH This Weekend: Solana delivered significantly better returns compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum over the weekend. don't let me compare it with Eth cuz it will break Eth holders Soul
2.Market Cap Milestone: Solana's total market capitalization hit an all time high earlier today, now making up 3.53% of the entire cryptocurrency market with a valuation of $114.3 billion.
3.Dominating Daily Net Inflows: As of now, SOL tops the leaderboard for daily net inflows.
4.Revenue Growth: Last week, Solana’s Real Economic Value (the revenue it generates) doubled its previous all-time high.
5.Meme coins often choose the Solana blockchain for a variety of reasons, primarily due to its unique technical advantages and its growing ecosystem. Here’s why: Low Transaction Costs, High Throughput and Scalability, Fast Transaction Speed, Strong Community and Ecosystem,Developer-Friendly Environment, Early Mover Advantage...
6.Weekend Trading Volumes: Between Saturday and Sunday night, SOL trading volumes surpassed those of all major altcoins.
All of this recent movement is huge for two specific groups of people:
-My wife, who has been worried sick since I told her I invested 100% of my life savings in Solana!
-Our followers, who got worded up on SOL around this time last year and load the dip at 20$
But will these trends hold, especially after ETH and BTC ETFs wrap up their first trading day of the week? Probably not but it’s worth noting how impressive this is, given Ethereum’s market cap is 3.3x larger than Solana’s, and Bitcoin’s is a staggering 16x bigger!
As you can see Sol ready for correction and pullback then it gets ready for Sol Mania
ALT Season? Not Even CloseWhen we exclude Bitcoin from the total crypto market cap, it becomes clear that we’re far from the conditions needed for an ALT season. Here’s a breakdown:
First Resistance: $1.28T (Excluding BTC)
The last high was in March 2024, with the market cap reaching $1.28T.
At that time, BTC dominance was around 52%.
Second Resistance: $1.71T (Excluding BTC)
This was the peak during the ALT season in November 2021, with the market cap hitting $1.71T. Back then, BTC dominance had dropped to just 42%.
Current Situation
BTC dominance is now sitting at 60%, which is far too high for a typical ALT season to start.
Historically, ALT seasons tend to begin when BTC dominance falls below 50% or even lower.
Conclusion
The altcoin market has a long way to go before reaching the conditions for a true ALT season. We need BTC dominance to decline significantly and the altcoin market cap to break through key resistance levels at $1.28T and $1.71T.
What’s your outlook? Are altcoins still in Bitcoin’s shadow, or is a shift coming? Let’s discuss!
MARKETS week ahead: November 18 - 24Last week in the news
The Fed “is not in a hurry” was the sentence which marked the previous week on financial markets and impacted its sentiment. The US Dollar continued to gain for the second month in a row, pushing the price of gold to the lower grounds. Gold ended its worst week within the last three years at the level of $2,56K. The US equity markets dropped during the week, both on news that the Fed might postpone interest rate cuts and on the nomination of a new administration in the US. The S&P 500 dropped to the level of 5.870. The US Treasury yields continue to eye higher grounds, ending the week at 4,44%. The only market which continues to perform with strong surplus is the crypto market. BTC reached another ATH, during the week, marking the $92K.
The Fed Chair Powell's speech at Dallas during the previous week was the most important for financial markets during the previous week, as the Chair noted strong US economic growth, based on which, the Fed is not “in a hurry to lower interest rates”. Market reacted to this statement, by bringing equities lower and Treasury yields to the higher grounds. As for US macro data posted during the previous week, the Inflation figures for October showed core inflation at 3,3% y/y and inflation rate at 2,6% y/y, which was in line with market expectations. The Retail Sales further surged in October by 0,4%, while the Industrial Production dipped by -0,3%y/y in October.
Palantir, a company developing software for military use, spotted the most market attention during the previous week. The stock is currently trading some 45% higher from the moment the company posted much better than expected quarterly results. On the other hand, the company officially published that it will change its listings to Nasdaq, on November 26th. Analysts are estimating that a switch to Nasdaq would increase stocks availability to retail investors.
The news that hit the aluminium market during the previous week came from China. Namely, China officials announced that the Government will cut its export tax rebate policy on aluminium, starting from December 1st. The purpose of these tax rebates was to make China's products more competitive on the global market, making China's products more cheaper. China is by far the largest producer of aluminium, with an yearly output of 40 million tonnes.
There is no need to specifically mention that the BTC price surged to the levels above the $90K in a post-election, however, the surge in XRP price deserves special attention. Namely, during the previous week a news came that the State Attorneys and the DeFi Education Fund made charges against the SEC for unconstitutional overreach in terms that the SEC overstepped its boundaries when it comes to its actions against digital asset exchangers. Although the lawsuit is not directly connected to Ripple, still, a positive outcome will have implications on SEC`s pending appeal against Ripple, which is a company standing behind the XRP token.
Crypto market cap
A crypto-friendly new US administration pushed further the value of the crypto market during the previous week. Total crypto market capitalization is nearing $3 trillion, ending the week at the level of $2.995. This represents an 11% increase just for this week, with a total cash increase of $304B on a weekly basis. Daily trading volumes also increased to the level of $351B on a daily basis, which is a surge from $278B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at $1.357B, which represents a 83% surge from the beginning of this year.
BTC was the coin that was driving the market, however, this week XRP deserves special attention. During the week, XRP gained an incredible 100% increase in value, which could be treated as sort of never-seen result within the one week on the crypto market. What happened? As per news reports, US State Attorneys and the DeFi Education Fund sued SEC for overstepping its legal boundaries with actions against digital asset exchangers. Although this lawsuit does not relate directly to XRP, still, a positive outcome will have positive consequences for this coin and its founder, a Ripple company. Market reaction was immediate, bringing XRP 100% higher, adding $ 33B to its market capitalization. Aside from this event, BTC was generally the coin which gained the most in nominal terms during the week. Total BTC market capitalization was increased by $202B or 12.7% on a weekly basis. On the other side ETH remained relatively flat during the week, with a modest loss of $2.2B of its market cap. A Elon Musk related coin - DOGE, continued with strong gains second week in a row, adding a new $13.6B to its market cap, increasing it by an additional 33.6%. This week Cardano was also among significant gainers, with an market cap increase of $6.2B or 30.4%. Solana was also on the list of gainers, however, its weekly gain was relatively modest compared to other coins, with a surge of $2.1B in the market cap, or 2.1%. Stablecoin Tether also had a good week, as it increased the number of coins on the market by 3.36% w/w, adding $4.14B to its total market cap.
Polygon was one of rare coins which actually lost in value during the previous week. The coin dropped by 4.23%, but at the same time decreased the number of circulating coins by 9.3% w/w. Maker and Stellar increased its number of coins on the market by 0.3%, while Filecoin and Polkadot added 0.2% new coins, each.
Crypto futures market
During the last two weeks the crypto market spotted the most attention from investors, while the crypto futures market followed, with some quite interesting developments during the previous week. In line with the spot market, both BTC and ETH futures gained during the week for all maturities. BTC futures were traded higher by some 19% on average, where December 2024 ended the week at price $93.130. Still, the major development was with BTC futures maturing in December 2025 which finished the week at the level of $101.175. This is the first time in the history of the crypto futures market that BTC passed the level of $100K. Certainly, investors are more than convinced that BTC has a bright future.
ETH futures were traded some 4.5% higher on average for all maturities. December 2024 ended the week at the level of $3.129, while futures maturing in December 2025 closed the week at $3.367. These developments are also marking some positive sentiment among investors, considering that ETH futures finally managed to pass the level of $3K for one more time.
MARKETS week ahead: November 11 - 17Last week in the news
Regardless of the FOMC meeting and rate cut for another 25 bps, still the major event during the week was related to the US Presidential elections. It seems that investors were more than satisfied with the American votes, as almost all markets finished the week in green, few of them with fresh new all time highest levels. Equity markets were the first to react to election results, by pushing the S&P 500 to new ATH at the level of 6.010. Another market which significantly gained with the election was the crypto market. BTC passed the level of $80K, reaching another all-time highest level. On news that a new US President might influence peace negotiations in the Middle East, the price of gold slowed down and reverted back toward the $2,65K level. The US Treasury bonds were the only to stay resilient, and waited for the FOMC decision in order to return back toward the 4,30 level.
The FOMC members cut interest rates by another 25 bps at their meeting held on Thursday. Speaking about the state of the economy, Fed Chair Powell noted that “The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance”. This sentence summarizes the current view of FOMC members on the state of the US economy. Although this was an expected move, still the after-the meeting speech of Fed Chair Jerome Powell was marked with a question whether he will resign if newly elected US President Trump requests from him such a move. He clearly stated that he will not resign and soon after closed the Q&A session.
Another topic that is emerging among Fed Governors is what will happen if the US imposes high tariffs on imported goods, as newly elected President Trump was mentioning in his presidential campaign? This question was commented by the Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, who noted that such an action could worsen a long term inflation outlook. Economists are noting that such a course of action might impact the Fed to increase interest rates again, if inflation needs to be kept under control.
While the Western news are speaking about future potential import taxes for foreign goods, which might be implemented by the new US government, China continues to stay focused on its own economy. News have reported that the China government is planning a five-years package around $1,4 trillion in yuan equivalent. The aim with the latest measure is to tackle the Government debt, while there has been announcements that more of aid for the economy might come during the following year. The package should be released mainly through a debt-swap program, however, investors did not perceive such an approach to the current Government problems. The IShares China Large Cap exchange traded fund, was down by nearly 5% on the news.
Crypto market cap
After the US Presidential elections during the previous week, it seems like there is a new dawn for the crypto market. Namely, as newly elected President Trump was highly pro-crypto during the presidential election, so the markets are currently expecting that the crypto ecosystem will finally have full support from the US government for its further expansion. The market reacted in line with this sentiment, pushing the crypto market and BTC to the new historically highest levels. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by 18% during the whole week, adding more than $412B to the market value. Daily trading volumes were more than doubled from the week before, where it was traded around $278B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at $1.053B, which represents a 64% surge from the beginning of this year.
It was one of the best weeks on the crypto market, certainly not recently seen. All coins gained during the week, with BTC leading the market. Incredible gains were also part of this weekly story. BTC gained the most of all coins, adding more than $222B to its market cap, increasing it by 16.1%. During the week, BTC also recorded a new all time highest value above the $80K. ETH was in second place with an inflow of $82.6B to its market cap, increasing it by 27.5%. ETH managed to cross the $3K psychological level. DOGE was a surprise of the week, with an increase in the market cap of $17.1B or 73%. More than $ 8B in value managed to add ADA and BNB, where ADA increased its market value by 66.2% while BNB surge was 10.2%. A market favorite Solana should also be mentioned as the coin increased its market cap by $22.1B or 28.44%. The list of gaining coins could continue, as weekly gains were quite significant between 20% and 30%. Only rare coins managed to add below or up to 10% during the week.
Coming to coins in circulation, the situation was relatively stable with the exception of a few coins with higher gains and decrease of circulating coins. Maker gained the most new coins as they were increased by 0.7% on a weekly basis. Filecoin, Polkadot, Solana and Stellar added 0.2% of new coins, each. Tether increased the number of coins on the market by 2.2%, increasing by this percentage its total market cap. On the opposite side was standing Polygon, which decreased its number of circulating coins by 1.9%, while Algorand pulled 0.8% of coins in circulation.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures market fully reflected developments on the spot market during the previous week. Both BTC and ETH futures significantly gained during the week. BTC futures gained more than 10% for all maturities, while ETH futures surged by around 17%. BTC futures maturing in December this year ended the week at $77.935, while those maturing in December 2025 closed the week at $85.020. March 2026 was closed even higher, at $86.835 which is the highest ever level reached for BTC.
Similar situation was with ETH futures, where almost all maturities crossed the psychological $3K line. In this sense, December 2025 closed the week at $2.993, still 17.19% higher from the week before, while December 2025 was last traded at $3.207.
LINKCrypto market has erupted from its sideways period. Bitcoin pushing all-time high and many altcoins following the trend. Almost all coins are having significant move. LINK can be one of many altcoins with solid fundamental. It covers some of trending crypto narratives that include Defi and RWA. LINK is also operating through many collaboration around the globe.
Price action wise, it is pretty simple. Breaking out from its trend line with supporting volume. Watch $30. SEND IT
MARKETS week ahead: November 4 - 10Last week in the news
During the previous week a mixed US macro data and disappointing NFP data shaped the market sentiment. The US Dollar gained in strength as of the end of the week, pushing the price of gold toward the level of $2.735, after it reached the fresh new ATH supported by geopolitical tensions. The US Treasury yields continue to test higher grounds in a wake of the FOMC meeting in a week ahead, where 4,3% for 10Y US benchmark has been tested. The S&P 500 reverted a bit to the downside, closing the week at the level of 5.728. The weekly best performer was BTC, which was testing the level of $ 73K during the week.
The US Non-farm payrolls of 12K in October were the surprise of the week for the markets. Such a weak performance and a significant drop, analysts are contributing to the hurricane and syndicate strikes in the US during October. Still, the question is pending how this figure will affect the FOMC rate decision, scheduled for November 7th. At this moment, markets continue to expect a further 25 bps rate cut. The final FOMC perception of the macro developments will be known after the FOMC meeting on Thursday.
CNBC is reporting that the most famous investor, Warren Buffet continues to stockpile cash, which is currently estimated to be $325 billion. This was an increase in Q3, from $276 billion in Q2. The news is reporting that Berkshire Hathaway continues to sell stocks, first place Apple and Bank of America. There are also no buybacks of sold stocks, which might be repurchased when Buffet “believes that the repurchase price is below Berkshire's intrinsic value, conservatively determined.”.
News are reporting that the New York Stock Exchange announced plans to extend equities trading on Arca to 22 hours per day, five days a week. The NYSE came to this proposal considering a “growing demand for our listed securities around the world”. It is still under question whether this proposal will be adopted by NYSE.
NVIDIA will replace Intel stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average index on November 8th. Nvidia shares surged by 170% during 2024, while the company surpassed $3,3 trillion in the market cap.
In its research, JPMorgan analysts noted that BTC daily mining revenue dropped in October for a fourth consecutive month. Analysts noted that BTC miners earned on average $41.800 per exahash per second of hashrate, which was 1% lower than in September. On a positive side is that transaction fees spiked to 60%.
Crypto market cap
Although BTC had its rally toward the higher grounds, overall the crypto market had a pretty mixed week. The forthcoming Presidential elections pushed the major coins to higher grounds, however, other altcoins did not perform in the expected manner. Total crypto market capitalization ended the week 2% higher from the week before, where a total $ 46B has been added to the crypto market cap. Daily trading volumes were increased to the level of $140B on a daily basis, from $99B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at $641B, which represents a 39% surge from the beginning of this year.
BTC was the major coin which was driving the market to higher grounds. From a total market cap increase of $ 46B w/w, BTC added to its market cap a total $48B. This indicates that some other coins were driving the market cap to lower grounds. ETH was also traded with a positive weekly sentiment, adding to its cap almost $ 3B, increasing it by 1%. DOGE was another coin traded in a positive territory, increasing cap by $3.2B or 16.2%. From other altcoins Maker had solid performance, where the coin was traded higher by 11.7% w/w. Interestingly, Solana was traded with a negative sentiment, where $4.2B has been erased from its market cap, which decreased by 5.1%. BNB had a negative week, where its market cap dropped by $2.9B or 3.4%. Other altcoin lost somewhere between 1% and 5%.
There has been significantly increased activity with coins in circulation. BNB decreased the number of coins on the market by 1.3%. On the opposite side were Polygon, with an increase of circulating coins by 0.8% w/w, OMG Network increased the number of coins by 0.6%, while Filecoin and Maker added 0.4% new coins to the market.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures market ended the week at a positive territory for both BTC and ETH. BTC short term futures were traded higher by 3.5%, while longer term ones were up by 3.6%. BTC futures maturing in December this year were last traded at $70.195, and those maturing a year later closed the week at $76.850. It should be noted that March 2026 was last traded at $78.490 which was its highest price in history.
ETH futures were traded around 1.6% higher for all maturities. Futures maturing in December closed the week at $2.554, and those maturing in December 2026 were last traded at $2.744. March 2026 closed the week at $2.794. This shows that investors are still not perceiving ETHs price above the $3K target.
$TOTAL Market Cap 259 Day BREAKOUT!At last, the Crypto CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL Market Cap has a BREAKOUT from the 259 Day trend!
This was the lagging chart I was watching to confirm the next leg up in the bull market.
The 20DMA has also crossed the 200DMA for the first time in 12 months. This is a SUPER bullish signal, as you can see what occurred last time in October 2023.
With less than 1 week away until Donald Trump is declared President of the United States, and the FOMC announcing another round of rate cuts the following day, we can expect a lot of volatility in the market.
The 20DMA should act as a good support on the way up.
The final signal will be when the Fed announces they will stop selling securities from their balance sheet. This will signal a new round of quantitative easing, and complete risk-on.
Tick-tock MFers. Position accordingly!
MARKETS week ahead: October 30 – November 3Last week in the news
Previous week was a relatively calmer one on financial markets. A strong sentiment for US inflation data was the one which pushed the US 10Y yields to the higher grounds, at 4,25%. The US Dollar continued to gain, while ongoing geopolitical issues impacted the price of gold to also end the week at historically highest levels, at $2.746. The US equity markets had a modestly mixed week, with the S&P 500 ending the week at the level of 5.808. The crypto market modestly pulled back, with BTC still holding around the $ 67K level.
A week after the ECB cut interest rates, as expected, the markets are reconciling what could be the next move of this Central bank. There has not been much information provided in an after the meeting speech of President Lagarde, except that “disinflation is on the track”. However, analysts are commenting that more has to be done in order to support the weakening EU economy. There has also been discussion that the decreased interest rates made an impact on modestly increased bank lending to corporates and the retail segment in September. Still, the increase of 0,7% for the year, analysts see as relatively low.
Tesla (TSLA) shares surged by a significant 22% during the single week, after the company posted better than expected Q3 results. This was the best weekly performance of the company for the last 16 years. TSLA posted a revenue of $25,18 billion, an increase of 8% on a yearly basis. Also, the company posted earnings per share of 78 cents, beating the analysts estimate of 58 cents.
News is reporting that the price of BTC was strongly impacted during the previous week by the story published by Wall Street Journal over a DOJ probe on Tether. As per report, the US officials are currently investigating the stablecoin issuer Tether, for its potential involvement in violation of anti money laundering laws and sanction rules. However, Tether Chief technology officer shortly commented on the news on platform X, noting that WSJ is “regurgitating old noise”.
In the wake of the US elections, market analysts were investigating the topic of potential impact of US tariffs on Chinese goods to China's economy. Analysts from the CITI Research commented that an introduction of tariffs of 60% might impact a severe drop in China's exports to the US, which now accounts for 14,8% of China's total exports, which would further impact a potential drop in the GDP of China by 2,4%. However, this was only a case study of researchers, while potential increases in tariffs are still only at the level of discussion among some US political figures.
Crypto market cap
The crypto market relaxed a bit during the previous week, after the week of significant move to the upside. Total crypto market capitalization decreased by 3% on a weekly basis, with a drop in market cap of $58B. Daily trading volumes were also modestly decreased to the level of $99B on a daily basis, from $112B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at $595B which represents a 36% surge from the beginning of this year.
Majority of crypto coins were traded within a negative territory during the week, with only a few who finished the week in green. BTC slowed down during the week, ending it by 1.6% lower, decreasing its market cap by $22B. ETH followed the sentiment, with a decrease in value of 6.6% or $21B. BNB was also traded toward the downside, where the coin lost $2.2B in value, decreasing it by 2.5%. In relative terms, the few coins which lost the most were NEO, Theta and Maker, with a drop of more than 10%, Polygon was traded down by 14%. Interestingly, this week Solana was in the spotlight of the market, where the coin managed to end a week by 11.5% higher from the week before, adding $8.5B to its market cap. Tron was also among weekly gainers, with an increase in the market cap of 5.3%.
There have also been interesting developments with circulating coins. This week Polygon decreased the number of its coins in circulation by 2.2%. Maker also had a withdrawal of coins by 0.2% w/w. On the opposite side were Filecoin, Polkadot, Tether and XRP, which added 0.2% new coins to the market, each.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures market reflected the developments from the spot market during the previous week. In this sense, BTC short term futures were traded lower by some 2% on average, while the longer term ones were holding below the 1%, almost flat on a weekly basis. BTC futures maturing in December this year were closed at $67.790, and those maturing in December 2025 were last traded at $74.135. March 2026 ended the week at $75.715. This was a positive signal from the futures market that investors still see the value in BTC in the long run.
ETH both short and long term futures were traded down by more than 5% for all maturities. December 2024 ended the week at the level of $2.517, while December 2025 was closed at $2.703. At the same time, futures maturing in March 2026 were last traded at $2.752, moving away from the $3K target.
Two Charts to Watch to Time the Crypto Cycle Top Here I have the TOTAL2 chart overlaying the BTC market cap chart.
- Black: BTC
- White: TOTAL2
- Yellow vertical lines: BTC Halvings
The main alpha here is identifying the moments where TOTAL2 > BTC. This means the rest of crypto is valued greater than that of BTC, people are going further down the risk curve to seek greater returns, and peak euphoria has set in. Crypto markets top after BTC has made its run and once the alts, memes, and more degenerate activities soar following the rise in BTC.
At the bottom I have plotted the relative strength between BTC and TOTAL2 (Black line) which shows that once BTC begins to lose strength to TOTAL2 (a dip below the zero line) then the top is imminent. Currently we are well above the zero line and far from the negatives which indicates to me lots of time/ room left in this cycle for appreciation (if you're in the camp of the bulls).
I have also included a YOY rate of change (white area plot) showing the sharp increases in the ROC at the tops. currently we look very flat yet positive which is very similar to that of late 2016 and early 2017.
There is not much historical data so this could be invalidated easily, but the similarities from the past two 4 year cycles is significant enough to form an idea on when profits should be taken if you so desire.
Here is a chart of BTC-TOTAL2. This chart shows the delta between the two with a clear megaphone thing going on. The alpha here is that once that ratio dumps significantly that indicates the rotation away from BTC and into the more speculative side of the crypto market.
An increasing megaphone trend this chart is showing makes sense due to the natural rise in market cap the entirety of crypto experiences. It's kind of like an average true range of the delta between the two. The swings in the ratio will widen the more the market cap increases.
I wouldn't use these as trading indicators but rather as a guideline for sentiment and when it might be wise to be super risk on or more risk off.
My belief remains that we see a big pump next year with a sustained bull run up until Q4 of 2025 and Q1 of 2026 based on previous cycles in equities and crypto.
MARKETS week ahead: October 21 – 27Last week in the news
The US Retail Sales figures for September, as well as better than expected posted quarterly results of US companies were the major catalyst for the US equity markets during the previous week. The S&P 500 reached the newest all time highest level, ending the week at the level of 5.864. Although the US Dollar was gaining in strength, gold has also reached the fresh new highest level at $ 2.721, supported by the continuing tensions in the Middle East. The US 10Y Treasury yields were testing the 4,0% level. This week the crypto market was also in the spotlight of investors, where BTC was pushed up to the level of $68K.
The ECB cut interest rates by another 25 bps at their meeting held during the previous week. This was widely expected by market participants. Although ECB President Lagarde is still holding to the narrative that the ECB will be data dependent in the coming period, still what is evident is that the inflation in the Euro Zone is nearing targeted 2,0%. However, at this moment, inflation is a minor problem, considering that the EU economy is significantly slowing down. President Lagarde did not put too much emphasis on this issue, however, the markets continue to be of the opinion that the ECB would have to cut further in the coming months.
As September Retail Sales in the US were in line with the market expectation, and showed no threat to the inflation and FEDs forthcoming rate cuts, the market turned the view toward the increasing U.S. deficit. Economists are stressing that the US administration increased further deficit by 8% during this year, which recorded a $1,8 trillion. However, the economists are stressing a much higher problem for the US administration, which is the level of interest paid on that debt. As per reports, the interest payments reached $1,16 trillion, the highest amount ever in US history.
In line with the latest surge in BTC price, the inflows into BTC-linked ETFs also increased. As per news reports, around $2,1 billion flowed to these funds. BlackRocks chief investment strategist noted that 75% of all new investors in their BTC ETF IBIT have never before owned not a single iShare.
China posted its Q3 growth rate at 4,6% which was higher than expected, however, economists are noting that there are still significant challenges. The highest pressure on further China's growth is coming from the property market. New housing starts for the first three quarters were down by -12%y/y. However, hi-tech manufacturing continues to surge 10,1% y/y, as well as the auto industry, which is currently standing at 4,6%y.y. At the same time strategists from Wells Fargo are stressing that the value of Chinese equities are moving at overvalued territory. The MSCI China surged by 40% this year.
Crypto market cap
After a few challenging weeks, where crypto coins were traded in a mixed mode, a final breakthrough occurred during the previous week. A positive market sentiment was evident not only on the US equity market, but this time, investors sentiment was turned also toward the crypto market. Reasons are not quite evident at this moment. On one side are analysts who are noting increased odds of the US Presidential candidate and crypto-supporter (at least in the presidential campaign), Donald Trump to win the elections, while on the other side are analysts who are putting emphasis on increased government spending, which is more a realistic scenario. Whatever the reason, the crypto market capitalization increased by 6% on the weekly basis, adding total $139B to its market cap. Daily trading volumes remained relatively stable on a weekly level, moving around $112B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at $653B which represents a 40% surge from the beginning of this year.
Despite the significant increase in the market capitalization, still, there were coins which were traded in a negative territory during the week. The significant weekly gainer was BTC, which added $101.4B to its market cap, increasing it by more than 8% w/w. ETH followed the path, with a relatively smaller gain of $ 20B or 6.9%. BNB had another solid week, with a surge in market cap of almost $ 3B, increasing it by 3.5%. Market-favorite Solana was also in the winning club, with a surge in cap of $4.5B or 6.6%. Significant gainers in a relative terms, were Litecoin, with a surge in value of 13.7%, DOGE was traded higher by more than 26%, Bitcoin Cash was higher by almost 10%. There were a few coins which closed the week at lower grounds from the week before, like Maker, which dropped in value by 11% w/w, Uniswap was down by almost 11%, while OMG Network lost 5.3% in value.
When it comes to coins in circulation, Tether managed to increase the number of coins on the market by 0.3%, also increasing its total market cap by this amount. IOTA added 0.6% more coins to the market on a weekly basis, while the amount of Polkadot`s coins was higher by 0.2%. On the other hand, Maker decreased the number of coins by 0.6%.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures market reacted in the same manner as the crypto spot market during the previous week. BTC both short and long term futures were traded higher by around 8.5% for all maturities. BTC futures maturing in December this year closed the week at the level of $69.900, while those maturing a year later were last traded at $76.035. At the same time, futures maturing in March 2026 closed the week at $78.010. This represents a significant move to the higher grounds, where the market, for the first time, is expecting BTC to reach the $78K level.
ETH futures surged by around 7.7% for all maturities. Futures maturing in December this year were last traded at $2.723, and those maturing in December 2025 closed the week at $2.904. It is interesting that ETH did not manage to cross the $3K level till the end of next year, and also not for maturities in March 2026, which were last traded at $2.957.
MARKETS week ahead: October 14 – 20Last week in the news
The US inflation data were in the spotlight of the markets during the previous week. A modest increase in September was another indicator for markets that the Fed might continue to cut in the coming period. The US equity markets reacted positively, bringing the S&P 500 to the freshly new all time highest level. The index is ending the week at the level of 5.815. The US Dollar gained during the week, while the price of gold managed to break from the $2,6K level, reaching new highs at $2.657. The 10 US Treasury yields spent the week testing the levels modestly above the 4,0%, easing a bit at the weekend. The crypto market was traded in a mixed manner, still, BTC managed to reach the $63K short term resistance as of the Fridays trading session.
The US inflation data for September was published during the previous week. The data shows that the inflation is cooling down toward the Feds targeted 2%. The inflation was higher by 0,2% for the month, bringing the total yearly inflation to the level of 2,4%. Core inflation continues to be elevated, adding 0,3% in September to the total yearly score of 3,3%. The majority of market participants are positive when it comes to expectations that the Fed might continue to cut interest rates at their November meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Still, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, noted in an interview that he might be against a rate cut in November in order to get better insight if inflation is certainly moving toward the 2% target.
The ECB meeting is scheduled for October 17th, where its members will discuss the potential rate cut. As per current market sentiment, expressed in the Reuters poll, 90% of economists and professionals are of the opinion that the ECB will make a 25 bps cut in October and also 25 bps cut in December. Such a sentiment is supported by a cooling inflation in the EuroZone, which is gradually moving toward the 2,0% target. However, the core inflation is expected to stay elevated. On the other hand, it should be considered that the EuroZone is struggling to sustain economic growth. It is expected that the economy will grow modest 0.2% this quarter, reaching some 0.7% a yearly growth. Still, the economy is expected to accelerate during 2025 by 1,2%.
After frenzy for China's stocks hit the market two weeks ago, the market has cooled down during the previous week, as China's Ministers did not provide in a statement the level of austerity measures as was expected by markets. News reports that China's finance minister noted in an address to journalists, that China has space to increase its debt and the deficit. The government is still not publicly disclosing the level of fiscal stimulus for the economy.
Tesla shares dropped by around 9% during the week, after the announcement of a new product called robo-taxi. The investors were not at all impressed by the product, as they were commenting that the presentation was related to Elon Musk's vision of the future more than opportunities for Tesla.
Crypto market cap
The crypto market was traded in a mixed manner during the previous week. The start of the week was with a negative sentiment, but the US inflation which is nearing toward the Feds target of 2% turned market sentiment to positive one. Although the highest weekly gainers were US equity markets, still positive sentiment helped the crypto market to end a week with a small weekly gain. Total crypto market capitalization increased by modest 2%, adding $ 51B to the market cap. Almost half of it came solely from Bitcoin. Daily trading volumes were modestly decreased to the level of around $114B on a daily basis, from $126B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at $514B which represents a 31% surge from the beginning of this year.
The first half of the week was not positive for the majority of crypto coins, however, the majority of them managed to finish the week with a small gain. The leader of the market was BTC, which added $24B to its market cap, finishing the week at a gain of almost 2%. ETH surged by 3% on a weekly basis, adding $8.7B to its capitalization. BNB also managed to add $2.2B to its market cap, increasing it by 2.7%. The group of significant weekly gainers also includes Solana, with an increase in cap of $2.3B or 3.4%. Coins which managed to increase their market capitalization in relative terms were NEO, with a surge of 7.25%, ZCash was traded higher by even 28.1%, currently without public information on the reason. Uniswap also ended the week with a gain of 20.3% on a weekly basis, which was rare, but quite a significant increase of the market value. The majority of other coins gained somewhere from 0% up to 3%. There were also several losers during the week, like LINK, which traded down by 1.85%, OMG Network ended the week by 5% lower, Maker dropped by 6.3%.
Changes in circulating coins are still relatively active on the crypto market. During the previous week Polygon decreased the number of its coins on the market by 0.8%, while Maker`s circulating coins decreased by 0.3%. On the opposite side, Algorand increased the number of coins on the market by 0.4%, while Solana, Polkadot and Filecoin increased the number of coins by 0.2%. The majority of other altcoins increased their circulating coins by 0.1% w/w.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures market did not manage to catch up with an increase in value of coins which occurred on the spot market. BTC both short and long term futures were traded higher by around 0.9% on a weekly basis. BTC futures maturing in December this year reached the last price at $64.210, while those maturing a year later are still holding above the $70K level, ending the week at $70.305.
ETH futures were traded higher by around 1% on a weekly basis, except those maturing in December 2024, which were last traded at $2.505 or 4.03% higher from the week before. Futures maturing in December 2025 closed the week at level of $2.696, while March 2026 was traded below the $3K level, ending the week at $2.745.