LINKUSD Is it about to catch the world's attention again?Almost 1 year ago (October 25 2023, see chart below), Chainlink (LINKUSD) gave us an excellent long-term buy signal after breaking above the Bear Cycle's Lower Highs:
Our 20.000 Target was hit and shortly after the price started to decline inside a 7-month Channel Down, which is still dictating the price action. Since the August Low though, the price has been rebounding on the 2023 Resistance, which we can now consider that it turned into Support.
This cyclical behavior was last seen during the previous Cycle when after a 2.618 Fibonacci extension reach, the price entered a multi-month correction below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and then recovered for the 2nd and final (and most powerful) rally of the Cycle.
This is exactly what we've been seeing this time around also. See how similar the 1W RSI sequences also are between the two fractals.
As a result, we expect LINK to start rising aggressively, even on this month. The previous Cycle topped on the 4.382 Fibonacci extension, so assuming this will be targeted again, we expect to see 53.00 by mid 2025, which is almost its All Time High.
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Cryptocurrencies
BITCOIN When Yuan gains Bitcoin shines. And it's already startedBitcoin (BTCUSD) has already started to break-out last week as it closed the first 1W candle with a Lower High in 6 months. Since the August 05 bottom, we've been seeing a strong bullish build up on BTC and the reason may be simpler than you thought.
As this 1W chart shows, historically when the USDCNY pair (red trend-line) tops by forming Lower Highs and starts declining (aggressively), Bitcoin always initiates its Parabolic Rally phase.
This basically means than when the Yuan gains strength, Bitcoin shines. The USDCNY's previous Cycle in particular, is virtually identical to the current one (2022 - 2024). All the above indicate that we may be on the verge and witnessing the start of BTC's most powerful part of the Bull Cycle.
But what do you think? Will a continuous fall on USDCNY fuel an aggressive rally on Bitcoin? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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AVAXUSD Bottom formed & going for the ultimate bullish breakout.Avalanche (AVAXUSD) has just touched this week the top of the 6-month Channel Down. In cyclical terms, this is just a big Bull Flag half-way through the Bull Cycle, similar to those of the previous one, in August - November 2020 and March - June 2021.
The Cycle's 2nd bottom is in being doubt as the RSI held and rebounded on the 40.00 Symmetrical Support, which held and kick started the post June 2021 bottom rally. The only confirmation left to give us is to break above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since late July.
As you can see both of 2020 - 2021 Bull Flags rebounded aggressively reaching the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. As a result once the 1W MA50 breaks, we expect a similar rally on AVAX, whether more aggressive like 2020 or marginally less like 2021, but our Target is at $250.00 (Fib 2.0 and above the All Time High).
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SOLANA - Second Wave Incoming?Everyone's favorite altcoin, at least in this cycle!
Let's study CRYPTOCAP:SOL 's behavior so far and see how much gas it has left in the tank.
Macro View
The month is looking promising! It's currently trading above previous month high and 2023 yearly open (key level) . What does this mean? Two possible outcomes:
The trend will stall for another three months before reaching new ATH (all-time highs).
The trend will issue a new bullish signal at the close of this month if it reaches $200.21.
The latter scenario has a higher probability, so let's explore it a little further
If the trend confirms within this month - let's say it doesn't but August does print the bullish signal - the price targets will be at $438 and $1,531 if things pick up nicely.
The second target remains within reach as the consolidation period features multiple equal highs. This calls for a strong move to the upside once things line up, as they are doing now.
Actions to take:
Bid this near $170 and have some last bids at the current monthly open ($148 - $152)
Add to spot buys if price hits $200 before the July monthly close.
Trade is meant to be long term, so be patient as I still think it presents the best and safest setup.
Below $140 the idea is invalidated :(.
BITCOIN making a huge break-out as we speak.A little more than a week ago (September 17, see chart below), we made clear that if Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke above July's Lower Highs trend-line (the Descending Triangle's Top), it would be a major bullish break-out for the long-term:
And so it did and today we witness another strong daily rise as the price broke above the August 25 65000 High, cementing and confirming all bullish break-out bias.
** Similar break-out happened 1 year ago **
What's even more interesting is that we saw almost the exact same break-out a year ago on October 01 2023, when BTC again broke above its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) just after the Lower Highs break-out of an identical Descending Triangle.
It is remarkable that the market was also on a 6-month consolidation phase at the time, with a clear Resistance and the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) supporting. The bottom was priced exactly when a 1D Death Cross was completed, just like the current phase did on August 05.
** 6-month Resistance break leading to +200% rise **
After a quick 10-day consolidation following the Lower Highs break-out, the 2023 fractal then 'attacked' the 6-month Resistance Zone and broke it aggressively, confirming the emergence of a violent Channel Up that, after almost a +200% rise, it would take Bitcoin to March's All Time High.
** Fed and U.S. elections immensely bullish **
With the Fed having started a new Rate Cut Cycle last week with an aggressive -0.50% cut and the U.S. Presidential Elections in November historically being a huge bullish event (as explained in one of our recent publications), there is no reason not to expect a similar rally.
We are expecting to see $95000 towards the end of the year.
So what do you think? Is this a huge bullish break-out for Bitcoin and if so, can we experience a an October 2023 - March 2024 rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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TRXUSD Buy opportunity below the 1D MA50.Tron (TRXUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the November 14 2022 bottom. The price is now pulling back from the latest Higher High but remains above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
This pattern indicates that after roughly every 55% - 65% rise, the price makes a pull-back and upon breaking below the 1D MA50, a buy signal emerges again. Wait until that and buy for the next Higher High. Our Target is 0.2100.
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CARDANO flashing the strongest buy signal in 1 yearCardano (ADAUSD) just gave the strongest long-term buy signal possible on the 1W time-frame as the 1W LMACD is forming a Bullish Cross. That is the first such formation in almost 1 year (since October 09 2023), indicating that we have the most powerful buy signal at hand.
The 1W RSI has been ranging since May, practically for the majority of the time that ADA has been trading below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
Basically as you can see all the above conditions are identical to the previous Bull Cycle, where a Bullish Megaphone emerged on a 1W LMACD Bullish Cross and after a 1W MA50/ MA100 Bullish Cross, the bottom was formed, while the 1W RSI was consolidating.
This time we have all these formations emerged again, so any week now, Cardano could start its new Parabolic Rally. With a Higher Highs trend-line setting a clear Resistance, we see a $5.00 price as a strong Target for the Cycle Top.
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Trump or Harris?? For BITCOIN the elections only need to happen!Simplistic title over a matter as complicated and important as the upcoming U.S. Presidential Elections this November, but completely true in terms of pragmatism.
As this straightforward 1W chart shows, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) isn't just bulletproof when it comes to the elections but in fact it gains extreme buying momentum irrespectively of the winner (Democrat or Republican).
Obama in 2012, Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020 all those elections had in common the enormous Parabolic Rally that was initiated exactly after the result. That was on all Cycles the most aggressive phase, clearly showing that investors just need the elections to be over in order to buy risky assets confidently without this macro event in the way. Usually this comes with fresh presidential assurances that the 'market remains strong and we will do everything to keep it this way' etc, so it makes sense.
What is equally interesting is that Bitcoin tends to top roughly a year after the elections:
November 06 2021 = Bitcoin topped 385 days later
November 08 2016 = Bitcoin topped 399 days later
November 03 2020 = Bitcoin topped 371 days later
This model indicates that even if we can't estimate accurately BTC's top in terms of price, we can time it. And based on the November 05 2024 elections, historically the minimum time it could time for BTC to reach a new Cycle top, would be 371 days, giving us a rough date around the week of November 10 2025!
But what do you think? Is Bitcoin about to get the boost of its life after the U.S. elections? And if yes, is it realistic to expect a top around November 2025?? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Bullish count up.If you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment!
Reacting and testing level identified.
Bulls need to break this level (63380)
and the pivot (65k) as a show of force.
Here is my conservative take if an impulse completes.
All hinges on 61779 and (1) pivot holding.
Possible ZZ completing so looking for a reaction off most likely targets.
One reaction is given. Looking for an impulse down.
Trade Safe,
Trade Clarity.
The Rise of Gas Crypto: Exploring NEO’s Hidden GemGas serves as the fuel for transactions on the NEO blockchain. It powers smart contracts, enabling developers to create decentralized applications seamlessly. Without Gas, these processes would come to a halt.
In September 2024, we will witness the expected outcome of the Gas crypto supply and demand analysis as the strong monthly demand level takes over. Currently, a significant reaction is taking place. This reaction has also allowed for short-term and intraday cryptocurrency trades using supply and demand strategies or other intraday strategies. This analysis is intended for long-term investments. This crypto will probably provide new trade opportunities using the smaller timeframes.
DOGEUSD entering its Parabolic Rally phase. Can it hit $2.00?More than a year ago (July 24 2023, see chart below), we published our long-term expectations and pattern for Dogecoin's (DOGEUSD) Bull Cycle:
As you can see, it filled our projection quite effectively as it extended the Accumulation Phase (blue). That was a phase which, as you can see, was present during both of its previous Cycles and after a 1W MA50/100 Bullish Cross and a subsequent hold of the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), it came out of a (dotted) Channel Down/ Bull Flag and entered its Parabolic Rally phase (green).
As far as timing of the Cycle Top is concerned, we have a very consistent pattern which suggests that it is priced just after the 3.0 Fibonacci Time extension from the bottom of the Bear Cycle. That was accurate for both of the January 01 2018 and April 26 2021 Cycle Tops. As a result, the Top of the current Cycle should be expected a little after August 04 2025, assuming the true bottom of the last Bear Cycle was on the week of October 03 2022 (just before the FTX crash).
But what about the actual Top in price terms, you might be wondering? Well the first two Cycle Highs (January 20 2014 and January 01 2018) were priced just below the 0.786 Fibonacci Channel level. The next one (April 26 2021) was priced higher on the 1.0 Fib on a technical overextension as it was the Cycle where Dogecoin experienced its strongest adoption and awareness.
It would be difficult to repeat this feat this time, unless some news/ fundamentals introduce new uses/ adoption for Doge and the market reacts with very aggressive capital inflows. In this new overextension case, we may see $6.00.
But our proper Target for this Cycle always was and remains $2.00, which falls marginally below the 0.786 Fib, just like the Tops of the first two Cycles.
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Polymesh Cryptocurrency $POLYX long-term trade ideaPolymesh Cryptocurrency $POLYX long-term trade idea.
This cryptocurrency is reacting strongly, as expected, to the imbalance mentioned last May 2024. This reaction has provided us with a bunch of long intraday short-term crypto trade ideas. Hopefully, this crypto will continue to rally to higher ground.
POPCATUSD Wait for a pull-back and buy.POPCATUSD has been trading within a Rising Wedge pattern and is currently on a new Bullish Leg (green). With the Internal Higher Highs trend-line just above, we expect a short-term pull-back towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which will present a buy opportunity at the bottom of the pattern. Our Target is 1.2500 short-term.
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SUIUSD gave the final bullish break-out signal to $2.700A month ago (August 13, see chart below) we gave the first bullish break-out signal on Sui (SUIUSD), as the price broke above its Lower Highs trend-line:
As you can see, it re-tested the trend-line to confirm it as a Support and, as expected, it held giving way to a break above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on Sunday. That is the second and final bullish break-out signal.
As per our original analysis, our Target remains $2.700, marginally below the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, as it happened with the March 27 2024 High. A Channel Up to guide the price there is the most likely pattern to emerge. Watch also for a potential 1D Golden Cross by the first week of October.
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BITCOIN ahead of a major bullish break-out with 90k targetBitcoin (BTCUSD) broke today forcefully above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and marginally broke above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Triangle pattern since July.
With buying pressure coming aggressively after the 2nd rebound on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) in just 1 month, if a 1D candle closes above the Lower Highs, we will have a strong break-out buy signal for the rest of the year at least.
In that case, we see the emergence of a Channel Up similar to the one that preceded March 2024, as a real possibility to test the 6-month Resistance Zone before the U.S. elections, then technical pull-back going into the event and then resuming the uptrend for the rest of the year.
The Target can be at least the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level at $90000.
But what do you think? Can this potential Lower Highs break-out be the golden ticket to break out of this 6-month consolidation? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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CKBUSD Major bullish break-out. Expect more upside ahead.Nervos Network (CKBUSD) broke this week above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since June 17. This is a major bullish break-out signal as every time this happened historically after a Lower Highs trend-line break-out, the price in 3 cases made a new High and in 2 reached at least the 0.85 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, we expect a strong bounce on the 1D MA200 to target at least 0.02900.
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BITCOIN Wake me up when September ends...Yes. Green Day's famous song suits Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just find under these circumstances. What are they?
Well, it is pure seasonality along its Cycles. This chart is simple. After every Halving since July 2016, Bitcoin enters a phase of choppy trade, with high volatility but it manages to keep the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) intact and support.
Then on the first week of October, it starts the Cycle's most aggressive phase, the Parabolic Rally. This has been confirmed on the past two Cycles and so far on this one, we have already got the Post Halving Chop, while the 1W MA50 was tested and held twice. With October only 3 weeks away, it appears that (if this model keeps repeating itself) we are preparing for a very strong rally that will be difficult to catch if you don't position yourself now.
But do you think? Is October ready to deliver? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 13, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The recent market activity demonstrated a resilient rebound from our Key Support level at 53000, surpassing the Mean Resistance levels at 56700 and 59700 and peaking at the newly established Mean Resistance level at 60500. Current market sentiment indicates a potential retracement to the Mean Support level at 57300 before initiating the primary rekindled rebound and progressing into the second phase to retest our completed Interim Coin Rally at 64900.
5 Positive Confirmation for CROUSD.. Anyone trade CROUSD?I put number on the chart as my reasons buying this CROUSD, i believe the correction is just over! And the GREEN ARROW will be the key level for buyer, watch out this green arrow, it should hold the price for now!!!
Let's see point by point:
1. Correction is perfectly stop and reverse (see number 1) at the 78.6% fibo retracement
2. Correction is perfectly stop and reverse (see number 2) at the FE 1.272 from A to B, we expecting this is a simple A-B-C correction
3. Correction is perfectly stop and reverse (see number 3) at the demand level showed on 4h time frame chart
4. Correction is perfectly stop and reverse (see number 4) with a solid hammer candle indicate a reversal of the correction is just started
5. Price just broken its minor resistant structure with solid movement.
TARGET IS 0.095!
LET'S DO IT..
CHEERS!
XRPUSD Is Grayscale's new Trust launch the dawn of a new era?XRP saw a jump of around +9% on Thursday after Grayscale announced the launch of a new trust that gives accredited investors direct exposure to the cryptocurrency. Unlike an exchange-traded fund, the trust will primarily trade over the counter. Trusts are also more susceptible to trading at a price that does not line up with the underlying value of the portfolio.
Could this pave way for a potential ETF? Possibly, and that would certainly put XRPUSD in the same league as the market leaders Bitcoin and Ethereum that are already drawing massive capital inflows following their ETF launch, ushering a new era for cryptocurrency.
But what we can do for the time being, is focus on the short-term technical price action alone and as you can on the 1D time-frame XRP's trend has been bearish since July 13 2023, within a Channel Down pattern.
Currently the price is past the new High, having formed a series of Lower Highs, which have emerged every time after a top. This trend-line didn't break in the past and pushed the price Lower to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci Channel level.
As a result, we can't turn bullish short-term as long as the Lower Highs hold. The action remains bearish, targeting 0.4000 (Fib 0.618). The moment however the price breaks above the Lower Highs trend-line, we will take the short's loss and turn bullish, targeting the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at 1.1275.
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BITCOIN Will the negative correlation with DXY make it rally?Exactly a year ago (September 25 2023, see chart below) we published a comparative analysis of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) against the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY):
** Negative correlation and the Fed next week **
We argued of the natural negative correlation the two have and BTC rose immediately to its impressive October 2023 - March 2024 rally, just when DXY got rejected at the top of its Megaphone pattern.
We believe that, only a few days before the Fed cuts the Interest Rates next Wednesday for the first time in years, it is useful to update this chart.
** Not just about the DXY **
As mentioned, this correlation shows principally the negative nature between the two financial assets but there are other parameters involved also. You can see that from late January 2024 to mid-March 2024, DXY started rising but BTC didn't decline, instead it posted an insane rally, which was solely attributed to the launch of the Bitcoin ETFs.
As this move cooled down, the market started correcting the rally's mania and even though the DXY started a strong decline in late June, BTC didn't raise but instead entered a 50k - 70k range because of the strong correction on the stock market.
** So what's next? **
So the obvious question that arises, is 'what's coming next for Bitcoin'? Well as you realized, that can be answered only in relation to the stock market and DXY moves. BTC is sitting currently on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), while the DXY on its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
Technically, if the DXY rebounds on its 1W MA200, Bitcoin should decline and vice versa if DXY breaks its 1W MA200 (would be the first time since January 10 2022), Bitcoin should rally. However that also depends on what the stocks do.
As a result, we believe that if the stock market rises, BTC will follow it upwards, regardless of what the DXY does (unless it accelerates so fast upwards that will break above the 107.370 Resistance). If the DXY rebounds while stocks rise, there should be a BTC rally but just a moderate one. If DXY breaks below its 1W MA200 while stocks recover, we expect the rally to be much higher than most anticipate.
On the other hand, a further decline on stocks combined with a DXY rebound, would translate into an aggressive sell-off on Bitcoin. If however stocks keep falling while the DXY makes the historic break below its 1W MA200, we expect the July - September consolidation on Bitcoin to be extended, so the trend should be sideways until one of those parameters/ condition changes.
Which scenario do you think is more likely to take place? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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