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Crude Oil

Buying The Dips in Crude Oil CL1!Crude Oil is the market to watch right now as everyone has turned complacent with inflation slowing. If CL starts to rally that can change the inflation story very quickly and potentially get a lot of trader off guard. Fundamentally CL has a lot of reasons to rally according to many of the Macro Traders I follow. Technically CL also has a bullish look as it has started to firm up above it's Auto-Anchored VWAP for the year, above the VWAP's from the recent swing high and lows and above my key neutral area on my Beacon Indicator. In this video I lay out how I will be playing CL in the coming days/weeks. Cheers, DELI
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by anthonycrudele
1
Oil: Sellers setting up for further downside? Today's focus: Oil Pattern – 1st leg Pull back Possible targets – 72.75 Support – Resistance – After Friday’s strong move lower, could we see further selling before oil stabilises after last week’s firm rally back to the $80 Handel? That’s the question I am asking in today’s video, and if we do see further selling, we will also be looking for signs that buyers are looking to form a new continuation higher, maintaining the first leg break out. Have a great day and good trading.
EIGHTCAP:USOUSDShort
by Eightcap
Any nae sayers??USD/Chinese Yuan has been showing dovish signals during the 3rd qtr and after the news on July 12, 2023 (which can be located on the blue location tab) the economy shows to be slowing down significantly. After news printed on the 12th of July 23, price made a clear decision just 4 hours later we can start to see some clear institutional movement with the dovish engulfing candlestick and a day later structure appears to continue downside pressure especially with the Pin bar holding at a resistance. This could lead to a further drop in price. Even though this pin bar has printed i'm still looking at price for a sell off from the previous news update for a stronger move to the downside. I will be patiently waiting for this move to happen. 38 Pip S/L 558 Pip T/P Let me know what you think?
Short
by Da_KahunaFx
2
WTI CRUDE OIL The 1day & 1week MA50 form a huge Resistance ZoneWTI Crude Oil / USOIL reached today the 1day MA50 for the first time since mid April. That April contact resulted in a strong rejection to the 1week MA200 that (even though it had breaches) has closed all weekly candles over it, establishing itself as the long term Support. The long term Resistance is the 1week MA50, which is marginally higher than the 1day MA50, with the two forming the strongest Resistance Zone for the long term. The 1week MA50 has had two clear rejections in October and November, at the early stages of the formation of the Channel Down. This pattern still holds and the price is approaching its top. At the same time the 1day RSI is approaching the top of its Channel Up. The two have aligned tops and bottoms. Sell now since the price is already inside this huge Resistance Zone. Target the 1week MA200 at 68.50. Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:USOILShort
by TheCryptagon
11
CL - Crude Oil is respecting the Lower extremes ProjectionI've been often asked, how I choose the A/B/C Points when I apply a Pitchfork. Just use context and learn the Swing rules. Then you cannot go wrong, and you will get the correct information from the market when you throw a Pitchfork on the Chart. Be open minded, but don't force your meaning to the market. The market is doing what he wants. So, we look for a change in behavior. Something obvious. FACTS. Don't FOMO. There's plenty for you, even if you miss a couple points or eve $s. Let's put the stalking Hat on.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Tr8dingN3rd
Natural Gas - The Girl Who Hopes You Remember HerSince the end of February, and more accurately mid-March, the volatility on Natural Gas has all but disappeared. This is a good thing if you're bullish, because it's both consolidation and indicates accumulation. It's also a good thing from a sentiment/narrative perspective because everyone has all but forgotten trying to gamble on BOIL. Moreover, it's strange for Natural Gas to trade so cheaply in light of the situation with the conflict between NATO and Vladimir Putin and how it impacts both China and Xi Jinping and Europe. I've said in many of my previous natural gas calls that $10 wasn't the top. And if that supposition is true, the fact that we're trading at such an enormous discount for so long is really notable. Just look how big the discount is on the monthly: One of the core tenants of 2023's thus far price action being a likely bottom is that Natty has swept out the $2 mark twice, the last time in April. Since, it's then made a series of higher lows and now looks certain to make higher highs. Moreover, on the weekly we see any red bars are continually traded through to the upside by the MM. All of this comes while the algorithm has been playing around the December of 2020 monthly pivot. The fact that $2 has been protected so strictly and that the high of the year was set at only $3, which it touched for only a day, a Friday, to start March tells us that the target is more likely to be up than it is to be down. It is very hard for me to tell you if Natty is going to do $3.2, $3.5, $4, or $4.5. It may just double top at $3 and then go back to $1.8. What I can say is that getting over $4 ought to have a high degree of resistance. However, if the algs push it through, it's going to take off and take off in a hurry. One thing that is true is that you really should not be bearish on energy. I also believe that the Nasdaq in specific is about to correct so violently that it's going to set a new low. We may be in a scenario right now where we see something like: Equities correct USD up Energy up Metals up 10Y yield up VIX up Instead of the usual everything down and everything up all at once shenanigans. The world is running out of energy. Oil is not a bear market. Worldwide and US production peaked in 2018 and hasn't come back. A lot of the "oil" that is included in daily production numbers isn't actually crude oil but is "natural gas liquids" and other lesser substances. In a climate where mankind is using more and more electricity and temperatures are getting hotter and hotter, there is no reason to believe that natural gas should stay this cheap. How hot will July, August, and September be in North America? Natural gas _is_ electricity. It's also plastics. It's also what the places that get winter use to fuel their furnaces to stay alive. Are you really expecting $1.50?
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by LordWrymouth
25
Crude Oil - Bearish On Oil? Saudis Made The US Cover Its Short.I've had a number of successful calls on crude oil, which you can find in my post history. In those calls, I had always been bearish on oil, anticipating a run to a 4-handle. However, I reassessed my prior assumptions when the MMs took out the Low Of The Year in quick order to start May. I haven't been particularly sure in the time that has passed, but between price action and some recent news, I now believe oil is set to reverse. The situation in mainland China with Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party is very tense. The pandemic has taken a huge toll on the country, which the Party is not reporting to the world, and you can tell this if you look at their obviously bogus COVID death and infection stats published on major data aggregators. This matters because since Putin invaded Ukraine last year, there's become something of an alliance between the Saudis, Russia, China, and India, with many oil transactions no longer settling in the U.S. Petrodollar. So you have to be really careful trading right now with the geopolitical situation at hand. Everyone has flipped bullish on equities and is expecting a new parabolic run, but the situation is just as prime for a sharp and dramatic turnaround, which I reference in my recent call on the SPY ETF: SPY - It's Life or Death For Bears When it comes to China, Xi has the looming threat of having inherited Jiang Zemin and the CCP's persecution of Falun Gong, which targeted 100 million people and has even harvested their organs. Xi and the CCP also face the growing trend of the movement to return to China's traditional 5,000 year culture, which is the crown jewel, the magnum opus, of the whole world and all of human history. So the most important country in the world is very unstable, and you aren't hearing anything about what is going on. But the controllers know something is wrong and are scurrying about frantically, thinking about how they can take your stuff on the way down. So, my bearishness on oil has been based on the fact that the Biden Administration has drained the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, significant because although OPEC+ is a huge producer of oil, the US and its vassals, such as Canada, by far produce the most oil in the world. Washington selling the SPR is a short on the market by definition and they unloaded hard in the 90s and 80s, saying they wanted to buy back in the 60s. Yet the two times we've had oil in the 60s, they haven't rebought. I believe they intended to drive the market lower for longer and rebuy then. A few recent pieces of news came out. One is OPEC had a scheduled meeting in Vienna in early June, which they held in person, despite the next major meeting being in July. During that meeting, Reuters, WSJ, and Bloomberg found themselves disinvited, while every other media did not. Moreover, on Friday The Washington Post stated that Saudi King MBS warned the Biden Administration it would inflict economic pain when the US complained about production cuts. The Saudis have teeth because they own Aramco, which is also stationed in the United States, and the Saudis buy arms from the military industrial complex. NATO and the US needs to have the Saudis not wanting to get rid of them if they are to have any chance of deposing Putin and taking Russia for the New World Order. It's been well known that OPEC+, of which the Saudis are the biggest producer by far, want higher prices and need $80-100 to continue to run a national surplus. The second biggest news is a June 9 announcement from the Department of Energy stating the US will replenish 6 million barrels of oil from the SPR. This means Washington is covering its shorts. Now, you'll complain, fairly so, that the Democratic Socialists of America have sold some 280 million barrels of oil from the SPR since Biden was inaugurated in 2021, and you're right. 6 million barrels is certainly a drop compared to what they've sold. However, a look at the EIA website puts the 6 million barrel figure into perspective: since November of '22, only 20 million barrels have been drained. I will repeat myself again: the market maker is covering its shorts and that means it's very immediately dangerous to be short on oil and oil companies. So, this is hard to go long on because the delta between $70 and the $63 low is 10%, and on futures at $1,000 PnL per $1 move per lot, that's a lot of "Ouching" as Abdulaziz has said for early comers. However, generally speaking a bottom is a bottom and that means there won't be a new low. Either way, it's up to you to figure out where to go long and when to go long and if you want to go long. The most immediate target, even in an ultimately bearish continuation scenario, is $85, and more specifically, $95. And you may very well see a 9 handle as early as August or September. The problem with short on oil is on the monthly: COVID hysteria was an ultimate bottom. If -$40 wasn't an ultimate bottom then you call your mom and ask her what an ultimate bottom could be and let us know in the comments. If you've got an ultimate bottom and no real highs were taken, the the market is aiming higher, and not lower. A breakdown of price here means that oil as an industry is not going to recover, but yet green energy is a fallacy and alternative energy sources are nowhere to be found, while worldwide crude supply is actually not particularly abundant anymore. So what fundamental story is supposed to be used to drive oil lower? A bunch of talking heads on Twitter complaining that oil is going lower? That doesn't move markets. Producers have to deposit actual oil to go bigly short because contracts settle in physical goods. Moreover, the price action in March before the big move down in May was really, really peculiar. You see it more clearly on the weekly: Like, $2 away from a breakaway gap is where it chose to dump and actually set a new low of the year? Really, to me, this says that since we haven't dumped anymore and now we're getting fundamentally extremely, extremely bullish news, that the target can only be $95. People, for whatever reason, tend to like to buy above highs and so they'll get bullish at $85 and $95. But why not get bullish at $70? Warren Buffet keeps buying OXY. Is he doing this because oil is on the verge of another 5 year bear market? If oil is going to pump, what does this mean for equities? What does it mean for the VIX? With what's going on in the world, what does it mean for the future? How long will the happy continue? It's really worth giving some sober thought to, and it's really worth cutting the furus and the propaganda outlets out of your information cycle.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by LordWrymouth
10
Nikkei break out? - China's JapanificationThe recent Nikkei rally is bringing it ever closer to that "magical" 30,000 level which it hasn't touched since the late '80s collapse. IFF a breakout occurs, expect a collapse in all XYZ/JPY pairs - since, true to form, every equity/hedge fund in the world is expected to pile in. Internal Chinese (export/import) numbers are showing a fair pick up in exports - post Covid - BUT a very anemic internal demand, with import numbers steadily surprising to the down-side (by a lot!). Simultaneously Japanese heavy industry is racking up some solid numbers lately, especially in regard to steel, automobile and electronic components. All of this is fueled by an abating chip shortage, giving world wide car production a boost. E.g. Watch the Nikkei price action and fully expect a blinding YEN rally should that 30,000 level get blown away!
OSE:NK2251!Long
by Nemo_Confidat
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/7/23For Friday, 69.45 can contain session weakness, above which 72.81 remains a 2 - 3 day target able to contain buying into later next week, and the point to settle above for yielding the more meaningful 77.27 within 1 - 2 more weeks.   Downside Friday, closing below 69.45 signals another test of 67.08 within several days, able to contain selling through next week and above which 77.27 is attainable over the next 3 - 5 weeks.   On the other hand, a daily settlement below 67.08 indicates 62.14 longer-term support within 2 - 3 weeks, where the broader market can bottom out through summer activity.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
WTI CRUDE OIL Over the 1day MA50. Bullish break out.WTI Crude Oil closed yesterday over the 1day MA50 for the first time since April 28th. The 1day MA50 was a Resistance with 3 clear rejections since. This is a technical bullish breakout, targeting the 1day MA100 at 73.50. If rejected there, sell and target the Support Zone at 67.50. If it closes a candle over the 1day MA100 too, buy again and target the 1day MA200 at 76.50. The 1day RSI is on a Rising Support, which can be used as a sell target and buy entry. Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:USOILLong
by TheCryptagon
5
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/6/23For Thursday, 69.55 can contain session weakness, above which 72.80 remains a 2 - 3 day target able to contain buying into later week, and the point to settle above for yielding the more meaningful 77.20 within 1 - 2 more weeks.   Downside Thursday, closing below 69.55 signals another test of 67.08 within several days, able to contain weekly selling pressures and above which 77.20 is attainable over the next 3 - 5 weeks.   On the other hand, a daily settlement below 67.08 indicates 62.14 longer-term support within 2 - 3 weeks, where the broader market can bottom out through summer activity.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis