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Crude Oil

MCL: Where is oil price heading amid geopolitical tensions?NYMEX: Micro Crude Oil ( NYMEX:MCL1! ) The price of a commodity is determined by its supply and demand. But in the case of crude oil, which is the lifeblood of the global economy, geopolitical risk carries a bigger impact. Examples in present time: In February 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict sent crude oil up 72% to $124 a barrel. In October 2023, the Israel-Hamas conflict saw WTI price 40% higher to $94. The rapid price rise following conflict eruption is called an “Event Shock”. Investors price crude oil in the worst-case scenario. Would it be the start of WW3, for the former event, and would the Gulf region oil production get cut off, for the latter event? Typically, the fear for the worst is overblown. As the conflict progresses, oil prices tend to fall back down if that did not materialize. After the Western nations imposed embargo on Russian oil in 2022, Russia found new customers in India and China. We know that crude oil is a fungible commodity. The more the two countries buy from Russia, the less they will buy from the rest of the world. This helps keep the global oil supply in balance. Without a shortage, oil prices fell. The Israel-Hamas conflict started in October 2023 so far has not dragged major oil producing nations into war. Even the Houthis Militia has been attacking commercial vessels in the Red Sea, they would not strike oil tankers from the Arab nations. Therefore, neither oil production nor its transportation was interrupted, and oil prices fell as a result. The previous Sunday, three US soldiers were killed, and more than 40 personnel injured in a drone attack at a US base in Jordan. The US vowed to retaliate. Last Friday, it has launched strikes on 85 targets in Syria and Iraq, in response to the drone attack. On Saturday, the US conducted air strikes to 30 targets in Yemen, the homebase of Houthis. With the US now engaging in military actions to militia backed by Iran, the Mideast conflict could be escalated to a whole new level. In addition to geopolitical risk, there are other tailwinds to support stronger oil prices: The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut oil production last month as the group and its allies began a new effort to prevent a global surplus and shore up prices. Output from the OPEC fell by 490,000 barrels a day (bpd) last month to 26.7 million bpd, according to a Bloomberg survey. About half the reduction came from Iraq and Kuwait. Led by Saudi Arabia, OPEC and its allies pledged to make additional production curbs this quarter, on top of reductions made last year. In the meantime, oil traders will see headwind ahead: Data on Friday showed that U.S. employers added far more jobs in January than expected, reducing the chances of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. High interest rates tend to dampen economic growth and reduce oil demand as well. Oil prices fell by about 2% on Friday and posted weekly losses after U.S. jobs data release. WTI crude futures settled at $72.28 a barrel, falling $1.54, or 2%. The global crude oil benchmark lost roughly 7% on the week. Trading with NYMEX Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures At about $72 a barrel, crude oil price is now below the price level before the Israel-Hamas conflict. It is also lower than oil prices before the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Is there a good reason why the price of the most strategically important commodity goes lower amid intensifying geopolitical tensions? You may point out that oil demand may be dampened by the weak Chinese growth, but I would argue that the robust US economy would offset that. Institution traders share my view. Money managers raised their combined futures and options oil position in NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent by 18,082 contracts to 117,226 in the week of January 30th, according to the Commitment of Trader (COT) report published by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). To express a view of rising crude oil price, we could consider a long position in NYMEX Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures ( CSE:MCL ). The March contract (MCLH4) was settled at $72.42 last Friday. It declined further to $71.75 at the time of this writing. Each contract has a notional value of 100 barrels, or $7,175 at the current market price. CME Group requires an initial margin of $660 per contract. Hypothetically, if the US strikes induce Iran retaliation and escalate the Mideast conflict, WTI futures could possibly go up above $90 a barrel. In this case, the $18 price increase (=90-72) would translate into $1,800 for a long futures position in NYMEX Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures (=18x100). In my view, while the Fed may not cut interest rates immediately, it is still expected to lower rates at least 1 or 2 times, maybe at later meetings in 2024. Lower interest rates are also positive for oil prices. However, if crude oil price continues to go down instead, each dollar of decline would result in a loss of $100 per contract. Here are some extended readings on my previous trade ideas on crude oil: October 9, 2023: Would the Middle East conflict push gold and oil prices higher? October 16, 2023: MCO: Options Strategy to Capture Crude Oil Volatility Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
FX:USOILLong
by ShahedZare
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - wti crude oilGood evening and i hope you are well. Here my commentary from last week: The bulls got their big breakout and we made 4.65 points last week. The next obvious target is 80 where i expect sideways movement. I also don’t think we can get there without a pullback first. Target for that pb is around 76.5 - 77. We can also just trade sideways in a tighter range but i think a retest of the 2023-12 high is an obvious magnet. Bull case: Last weeks bull case was good for Globex open on Monday and that marked the high of the week and we sold off 7.5 points. Bulls have nothing until market finds clear support and that will probably take some days. Arguments for bulls are 2 trend lines, one we already touched Friday and bounced a bit but weak arguments at best. At 70 should be big resistance but this sell off is very strong. Bulls need to keep this above 70.60 for this to be a higher low. Bear case: Big bear surprise for me this week. But since we are at support lines and bears did not print a lower low, i lean neutral. Bears need a break below and if they can get it, chances of a measured move down rise. Target could be 65 but let’s take this one by one. First target is 70. outlook last week: “sideways to down for a pullback but market is clearly always in long for now. so pullbacks will fail and we trade higher to at least 79.5 or 80.” → Well, pretty decent for about 2 seconds after Globex open on Monday. Big bear surprise for me. Bad outlook. short term: Sideways to down - Market needs to find support and i doubt it’s the bull channel. Big support is probably around 70. medium-long term: Sideways until clear break of range between 70-80
NYMEX:MCL1!
by priceactiontds
Geopolitical tensions are starting to weigh on oil pricesThe United States’ decision to conduct airstrikes earlier this week against targets in Somalia and Yemen provoked more aggression from Houthi rebels, who engaged in multiple new attacks against commercial vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Following that, Yemen’s rebels claimed a successful hit to the U.S. military ship, which the United States quickly denied. Despite months of ongoing attacks on ships passing through the strait, there have not been any reports of casualties. However, the odds of a fatal tragedy are growing together with the increasing intensity of Houthi’s attacks. Such an event would likely elevate tensions to a new level and put significant pressure on the United States government to act. In the scope of this worsening crisis, the odds of higher oil prices are climbing. On the technical side, some developments suggest oil might be prime for a run higher as well; the MACD crossed into bullish territory on the daily graph, and RSI and Stochastic continue to build bullish structures. Nonetheless, one thing to note is that the ADX is still relatively low, hinting the trend is very weak. Therefore, it might be proper to wait and see whether the USOIL manages to close above $76.14 for at least two consecutive days before committing to a bullish outlook. Illustration 1.01 The image above shows the MACD breaking above the midpoint on the daily time frame. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of the USOIL and simple support/resistance levels derived from peaks and troughs. An important level to watch is support at $76.14. If the USOIL manages to make another two consecutive closes above this level, it will bolster the bullish odds. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILLong
by Tradersweekly
2
WTI OIL Technical pull-back. Buy on these levels.WTI Oil (USOIL) gave us the most optimal buy entry last time we made a call on it (January 22, see chart below) and almost touched the 79.40 Target before pulling back: The pattern that has emerged is a Channel Up that started since the December 13 2023 bottom. The recent top at 79.30 is a technical Higher High for the Channel Up and the rejection has started the new Bearish Leg to a Lower Low (bottom of Channel Up). However the price may not pull-back that far this time as the 4H RSI is testing its Higher Lows trend-line that has been holding since the December 06 2023 RSI Low and has already given 3 contact points for buy entries. As a result this is where we are placing our 1st buy, with which we are targeting 83.00, being the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the Top and right under Resistance 2 (83.60). That will establish a new 'diverging' Channel Up (dotted lines), that will aim for a similar Higher High range (+12.15%) as the January 28 High. Since however the price already broke below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), we have to consider the possibility of a lower decline, which can indeed be as low as the bottom of the Channel Up, on a -9.00% decline (such as the January 03 Low). We believe though that in order to establish the new medium-term uptrend, the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) has to hold, so most likely this is the potential max downside extension. With that long, we will target the top of the (blue) Channel Up at 81.00, a little lower than the previous +14.40% Bullish Leg. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
higher prices on Crude oil (update) If prices continue to struggle going bullish after inventory or week come in red. I expect prices to drop into mitigation and if that happens you will see an explosive move on oil. Otherwise, they should take buy side liquidity @70.77 and come back into internal range (mitigation/volume imbalance) Mind you, if the fed also cuts rates today that will weaken the USD and strengthen foreign currencies creating more demand for oil and short inventory reports will surge prices higher.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by jewlstagara
1
Crude Oil is Primed for Gamma ScalpingCrude Oil price have remained sharply range bound for the last two months. CME Group’s West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures have traded between USD 70-80 a barrel since early November last year. Sharply shifting supply and demand outlook explains range bound trading in crude oil. In this paper, we discuss diverging factors affecting crude oil price and illustrate gamma scalping strategy to harness returns from range bound price moves. Gamma scalping is a well-established dynamic options strategy that enables investment returns from sharply oscillating price moves. CRUDE OIL’S DIVERGING PRICE OUTLOOK Tailwinds powering the oil prices increase is fuelled by (a) OPEC+ members decisions on deep supply cuts, and (b) geopolitical risks in the middle east remains elevated. On the day of the conflict escalation, crude prices spiked 2.6% higher. Some of these attacks have affected crude oil tankers in the region risking supply disruptions. Headwinds pressing oil prices down include record US crude oil production. The US churned 13.25 million bpd (barrels per day) of oil in Q3. That is more than 3 million bpd higher than Russia (second largest producer). EIA expects strong US production to continue through 2024 with growth driven by rising well efficiencies in US oil rigs. Globally, crude production growth is expected to slow but still rise by 0.6 million bpd in 2024 with higher US production offsetting the decline from OPEC nations. Expectedly, this has led to a widening premium for Brent crude compared to WTI. Demand outlook for crude oil remains uncertain. Slowdown in demand growth remains a concern. EIA forecasts global oil consumption to rise by 1.4 million bpd in 2024. This represents a slowdown in growth compared to prior years (1.9 million bpd in 2023). Slower economic growth translates into lower crude oil consumption. As such, supply-demand dynamic may remain unchanged despite slowing production growth. NAVIGATING DIVERGING OIL OUTLOOK With both bullish and bearish drivers for crude oil in active play, a directional position in crude oil might not be able to provide intended hedge for adverse price move. In a market with plenty of uncertainty and characterised by oscillating prices, gamma scalping can be used to harness consistent gains. INTRODUCTION TO GAMMA SCALPING IN CRUDE OIL Gamma scalping is an options trading strategy in which a trader continually adjusts their holdings to profit from small price movements in the underlying, while maintaining a directionally neutral position. Gamma scalping involves dynamic hedging by continually neutralising options delta. Delta is the value by which options prices change for every dollar change in crude oil price. Gamma is the value by which delta changes for every dollar change in crude oil price. Gamma scalping profits from small & frequent volatility in crude oil prices regardless price direction. With gamma scalping, traders can gain from both upward and downward price moves. ILLUSTRATING GAMMA SCALPING IN CRUDE OIL Gamma can be scalped in multiple ways. Common among them involves establishing a long straddle which is a combination of long call and a long put using at-the-money (“ATM”) options expiring on the same date. Hypothetically, we can follow three simple steps to set up gamma scalping: Step 1: Buy (“Long”) ATM Call Option and Put Option (aka Long Straddle) At the hypothetical strike price of USD 70/barrel, premiums required for buying Straddle (calls and puts at-the-money option expiring on 14/Jun 2024) is USD 12/barrel (USD 6 each for call and put) which translates to USD 12,000 per lot. At inception, the delta should be at or near zero. In practice, delta for ATM calls and ATM puts can differ and the position may have a net non-zero delta. Investors can reference the pricing sheet on CME QuikStrike for realistic options premiums, delta values, and strikes. The gamma of the long ~0.025 x 2 = 0.05. Gamma is the value by which delta will change for each change in crude oil price. Long straddle at inception is delta neutral. Meaning, it does not have directional exposure. However, it has long exposure of 0.05 gamma which signals that delta will change when crude oil prices move. Step 2: Dynamic Hedging When Crude Prices Move Higher Consider an up-move of ten points with crude trading up at USD 80/barrel. This results in a new delta of +0.5 (due to Gamma of 0.05 and 10 point move in crude prices: 10 * 0.05 = 0.5 per barrel). This translated to delta of 500 per lot of long straddle. To remain delta neutral, trader needs to sell 5 contracts of CME Micro WTI to balance the increased delta. As a result, the overall position now consists of: • Long 1 x ATM call option with a strike price of USD 70, with expiry 14/June (LON24). • Long 1 x ATM put option with a strike price of USD 70, with expiry 14/June (LON24). • Short 5 x Micro WTI futures contract (MCLN2024) which provides exposure to 500 barrels of oil at USD 80/barrel. Step 3: Harvesting Gains via Dynamic Hedging when Crude Prices Fall Imagine crude oil prices fall to USD 70/barrel, new delta is -0.5 per barrel and -500 per lot of long straddle. To remain delta neutral, the trader needs to buy five lots of CME Micro WTI futures to neutralize delta once more. This results in a profit of USD 5,000 (sell at 80 and buy back at 70 per barrel; each lot of CME Micro WTI futures represents 100 barrels). Overall position now consists of: • Long 1 x ATM call option with a strike price of USD 70, with expiry 14/June (LON24). • Long 1 x ATM put option with a strike price of USD 70, with expiry 14/June (LON24). This trade can be executed multiple times repeating the same steps as above. If crude oil trades down to being with, neutralising delta would involve buying lower and then selling higher when prices recover. SALIENT CONSIDERATIONS WHEN GAMMA SCALPING Upfront Premiums: Long straddle requires an up-front cost. Gamma scalping will need to be executed multiple times to break even and recover the premiums. Up-front premium implies fixed downside with a well-defined maximum loss. Dynamic Hedging: Gamma scalping requires continuous monitoring and adjusting of positions. Time Decay: Options should be selected with sufficiently large days-to-expiry to minimize effect of time decay. Time decay of the option rise sharply closer to expiration massively shrinking the value of the long straddle. Long Volatility: High gamma benefits from high volatility. The strategy should be utilized when volatility is expected to rise or remain high. At Expiry: The options legs may expire at a net loss and require scalping to break-even. Example payoff analysis for different settlement prices for crude oil at expiry: 1. Settles at USD 60/barrel: The put option is US 10 in-the-money and the call option is worthless. Options P&L = USD (10 – (6+6)) x 1000 = Loss of USD 2000. Gamma scalping must have generated more than USD 2,000 to offset this potential loss. 2. Settles at USD 75/barrel: The call option expires worthless and the put option is USD 5 in-the-money. Loss of USD 7,000. Gamma scalping must generate at least USD 7,000 to break-even. 3. Settles at USD 70/barrel: The call and the put option both expire worthless; the entire up-front premium of USD 12,000 results in a loss. To break-even gamma scalping must generate at least USD 12,000. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:CL1!
by mintdotfinance
Crude oil 4H Symetrical triangle, breakout of a down channelOn this 4H chart for Crude oil you can notice that the price has been moving in a very obvious down trend channel for a while. Recently the price broke out of it and started consolidating above the down tren resistance ( now a support ). In the proces the price formed a symetrical triangle. It is important to observe this triangle in the following hours as it can provide a breakout. Usually, when having a symetriacal triangle, it's better for the pattern to break in the direction of the movement that lead into it. If you observe the first green line, you will notice that this was an increase. If the pattern produces a Buy entry, this will also align with the breakout from this down trend channel. If the price starts increasing, it can encounter the first resistance around 75.80 - 76, this is the current major high point. If the price manages to surpass it, this will create a new bullish market structure and it can set the for a new bullish trend. The price can also correct from it. If it does, it can retrace to around 73 - 74 before getting the chance to bounce to the up side again. The development in the following days will be important not only for this setup, but possibly for the next 2 - 3 weeks. If the price breaks above the 76, the new bullish market structure can send it on an up trend. If the price breaks bellow the triangle and it goes back in the channel, then it can continue on a down trend.
TVC:USOILLong
by RTED_Investing
Crude oil could rally from $72Price action has been very choppy on the daily crude oil chart, but if we place a line chart over the top is shows prices are trying to break out of a small triangle / pennant. Whilst these are usually expected to be continuation pattern, they can also make decent reversal pattern. And this case, we've see prices hold above $70 on a closing basis, and the lower candle wicks made a series of higher lows. Momentum is now turning higher. Bulls could seek dips down to $72 (yesterday's low) or a break of its high, with an upside target around $78, near the 200-day MA and 100-day EMA.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CityIndex
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
FX:USOILLong
by ShahedZare
#202405 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - oilGood evening and i hope you are well. wti crude oil Here my commentary from last week: If you have read the gold one, this one is self explanatory i think. Market is compressing prices and will soon break out. Which direction? Guess. Your’s is as good as mine. I won’t say more about it. Breakout will come soon, so if you haven’t played the range so far, you should not start now because the odds of a breakout rise daily. The bulls got their big breakout and we made 465 points last week. The next obvious target is 80 where i expect sideways movement. I also don’t think we can get there without a pullback first. Target for that pb is around 76.5 - 77. We can also just trade sideways in a tighter range but i think a retest of the 2023-12 high is an obvious magnet. Bull case: Clear breakout of the triangle and they want a measured move up to 84. First more reachable target is the 50% pullback from the big bear trend which started 2023-10 and that is around 79 and where i expect more sideways trading. If bulls can keep this above the daily 20ema, i expect they will go for the measured move target of the triangle which we broke out of, to around 84. Bear case: They see this as a leg inside a trading range 68 - 80 and there are 2 potential bull channels and we are at the top of both. Bears want a strong reversal and trading back to the tight bull channel bottom at around 76. They also see 3 clear pushes up inside that channel and have reasonable arguments to short up here and make bulls want to take profits. outlook last week: “neutral (means sideways)” → bad outlook, since we got a big bull breakout short term: sideways to down for a pullback but market is clearly always in long for now. so pullbacks will fail and we trade higher to at least 79.5 or 80. medium-long term: odds for higher prices (up until maybe 90) raised significantly but i want to see market trading above 80 first. above 80 i turn full bull for 90 or higher.
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
CRUDE OIL BULISH STRUCTURE FORMATIONcrude oil last trading week completed its bullish structure, thus indicating the potential for price to exceed $90 in the coming days. The market has witnessed the formation of a bullish structure characterised by higher-low and higher-high, signifying a positive momentum in the oil market. N.B! - USOIL price might not follow drawn lines . Actual price movement may likely differ from the forecast. - Let emotions and sentiments work for you - ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades #usoil #crudeoil #wti #brentoil
TVC:USOILLong
by BullBearMkt
WITH BULLISH STRUCTURE ESTABLISHED, BRENT OIL TO RISE ABOVE $90Brent oil last trading week completed its bullish structure, and thus indicating the potential for price to exceed $90 in the coming days. The market has witnessed the formation of a bullish structure characterised by higher-low and higher-high, signifying a positive momentum in the oil market. N.B! - UKOIL price might not follow drawn lines . Actual price movement may likely differ from the forecast. - Let emotions and sentiments work for you - ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades #usoil #crudeoil #wti #brentoil
TVC:UKOILLong
by BullBearMkt