1 Week Later and Oil is down 3.66%1 Week after the beggining of conflict between Israel and Iran in the middle east, Crude Oil is down 3.66%. Price began trending down all week and then on Thursday there was news of a bombing by Israel which caused a spike in Oil(3.5). This whole move was corrected and we are back to being down on the week. This opposes what I believed may play out this week as my thoughts were 1. Oil is a precious commodity and needed in War 2. The trend thus far this year is Bullish (we are up 13.82%) The market is instead going down and retraced this week. We are currently sitting on the Daily support level 81.23. Price action looks bearish on the Daily as we have a large top wick on the current candle.. moving into the next few weeks we will have a bearish weekly candle behind us that may aid in a descent towards the next Daily level 80.65 and beyond to the next weekly level 77.82. Also, this is in line with current risk-off market sentiment as Oil (Risk-on) is a commodity after all
Daily timeframe : The Daily timeframe retested Daily resistance (85.65) and we rejected.
Crude Oil
FOMC Crude OilDaily Target met post NY open and Crude oil news.
Drop mic.
Just imagine you had the skill or someone to guide you where price is going?
You have the model... you just need direction.. we all struggle at one point on the bias esp intra day which needs a trader to be dynamic in his/her thoughts even when price is going against them intra day.
Daily/Weekly are essential.
Will update later for further bias and forecast for Crude!
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WTI OIL 1st 4H Death Cross in 7 months. Will it turn bearish?WTI Oil (USOIL) made a solid (Higher) Low at the bottom of the Channel Up pattern and started rising as we discussed on our previous idea (April 22, see chart below):
We now need to take it a time-frame lower to 4H as on Friday the market formed the first 4H Death Cross (4H MA50 crossing below the 4H MA200) in almost 7 months (since October 10 2023). This has the capacity to invalidate the current 4-month bullish trend but only if Oil closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA50 (red trend-line).
As long as it doesn't, we remain bullish on WTI, targeting 94.00, which is at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up and marginally below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which is where the previous Higher High peaked.
At the same time, this is where the the previous Channel Up of July - September 2023 made the symmetrical Higher High, relative to the current proportion. As you can see, there is a strong degree of symmetry between the two fractals, even in terms of RSI, with the only notable difference (which as mentioned can be critical), being the 4H Death Cross.
If the price does close that 1D candle below the 1D MA50, we will take the loss on the buy and go short instead, targeting 78.00 (just above Support 1).
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WTI Crude Oil: Analyzing Rebound PatternsThe WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil market has shown resilience, staging a recovery subsequent to a pullback retracing between the key Fibonacci levels of 50% to 61.8% from the preceding major swing. Notably, the current price action exhibits a divergence pattern, notably intersecting with the levels of prior support. Moreover, a discernible confirmation pattern emerged following a retest of this support, serving as a pivotal factor in our decision to initiate a trade. Furthermore, it's noteworthy that the current price trajectory remains positioned above the 200-period Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP), reinforcing our conviction in the potential for a sustained bullish impulse to unfold.
CL1! (CRUDE OIL) ... BULLISHBullish.
After forming a new peak high,
price retraced to the +FVG.
Friday's "news wick" tapped the
-FVG above and quick returned
the +FVG. Should the +FVG hold,
expecting price to move toward
the highs, as price moves from
Internal -> External liquidity.
The LRLR to the lower left is a
draw on LQ that bears watching.
I enjoy any feedback or questions in the comment section.
All opinions are welcome!
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Oil / Crude Oil Heading into end of WeekSo we are on the Daily Not moving with much drive and lets say... obvious direction when it comes to day to day bias (Overall Bearish)
I am ONLY focusing on PDH and PDL as targets today with any signal to buy or sell into the market being in a discount before I place a trade.
Range day - yes
To consider that Thursday's have seen good movement on Oil recently so keep this in mind.
Consider also that the Daily wick CE is also aligned with the weekly ifvg.
I will be looking to enter positions today as I am a scalper however anything on the 15min or above I would side with caution as prolonged moves may not be on the cards esp going on the last two weeks of PA.
Also like to thank the people who Boost my posts it means a lot.
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Bullish Move From Key Support 🛢️
On a today's live stream, we spotted a very bullish pattern on WTI Crude Oil:
inverted head and shoulders formation after a test of a key horizontal support.
We see a confirmed neckline breakout of the pattern.
It increases the probabilities that the market will go up now.
Target - 84.5
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Crude Oil WednesdayToday On the Daily I am in confliction with bias meaning that it could be changing soon if we repeat another bullish closing day.
For this I have dropped down onto the 4hr TF and the most recent 4hr -ob is what I will be referencing as to Bullish or Bearish intra day PA.
Scalpers Market atm
If you un sure, sit still.
We did close above the Daily v.i as I have mentioned in my previous posts... so my bias for 80.50 is in jeopardy but as a trader your mind must be dynamic.
As I said sit still or scalp but not in the middle.
US Oil By HesamUNT ( New update )hey traders
we had this move befor and its already Done
what u think about the nxt move ?
if price can break up the bearish channel and stabilize above the 78.51$ which is 0.5 Fib, there s high chance we go back to the 95$
Also ichi confirmed this move in 1H 2H and 4H TF
break up is important
Oil/Crude oil - TuesdaySo we have achieved one target for price and that was to reach the Daily V.i and so far London has rejected going higher...
Would like to see price head down post 0930est
My target is still 80.50 just waiting for price to align with my thoughts is what is most important before pressing the button.
At minimum PDL would be a bearish target
I don't see why we would want to go higher until proven wrong - Closing above the Daily V.i...
Thanks
Oil Pulls back off the Daily LowsOil decreased during London session as we were anticipating from our last Analysis. We are still anticipating a further decrease in the medium term but in the short term here we may pullback. This is what the price action is telling us as we have pin Bar candles on the 1hr and 4hr charts that printed at our 2 daily support level's 81.22 and 80.64. This suggests some bullishness in the short term and a possible retracment towards our 4hr resistance zone 82.52. Factors that support a Risk-On push include a decreasing Vix on the day, a intraday downtrend on the Gold price suggesting risk on sentiment.
Crude Oil - DXY ComparisonThe Dollar Index & Crude Oil are creating very similar price action & structures on the weekly timeframes. We previously saw huge bullish moves to the upside from 2021 - 2022 during peak Covid, followed by a consolidation phase (resting period) for the past year. It now looks like both markets are done resting & ready to sore back up🚀
Will you be buying these asset classes?👀
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
Crude Oil retraces on Conflicts🛢️Hello traders.. WTI Crude Oil has been dropping since the beginning of the conflict this past weekend between Iran and Israel. We are trending bullish so far on the year and are up 14%. Price is pulling back this week and we recently touched into a Daily support level 81.25 where we observed a bounce. I dont believe sellers are completely out on this bearish retracement and am looking for a retest of the Daily level 81.25. We have a 4hr resistance zone at 82.30 that may aid in facilitating a move back down.
Oil could go to $90 and higher if this happens...Since the eruption of the war between Hamas and Israel in early October 2023, we have been occasionally reporting on some of the developments in the oil-rich region. In one of the more recent articles, we outlined how Israel’s deadly airstrike against Iranian generals in Damascus, Syria, was likely to provoke retaliation from Iran and its proxies. On Saturday, Iran followed through and launched a large-scale attack on Israel. Per media reports, Iran sent approximately 170 drones, 120 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles, most of which were intercepted outside of Israel’s airspace with the help of Israel’s allies, including the United States. The attack sparked a discussion of retaliatory strike against Iran within Israel’s war cabinet, with officials not being able to agree on a timeline. Initially, it was announced Israel would reciprocate aggression in a window of 24 to 48 hours. However, just shortly before the futures market opened on Monday, Israel’s officials backtracked their plans, noting the country was not looking for significant escalation of the conflict while leaving a possibility of payback on the table.
Besides the attack, there was also news concerning Iran’s seizure of the Israel-linked MV MSC Aries cargo ship (operated by Geneva-based Mediterranean Shipping Company and owned by Gortal Shipping) off the Strait of Hormuz. At the moment, it does not seem very probable there will be some sort of disruption to cargo or tankers transiting through the area, but keep in mind that about 21 million barrels per day were transiting through here in 2022, which is about three times more than oil passing through the Red Sea before the start of the Israel-Hamas War. All in all, the geopolitical situation in the region progresses from bad to worse, carrying many unknowns. But judging by how things are unfolding, there is a high chance of a conflict passing beyond a point of no return, which, in turn, has profound implications for the oil market and could see the oil price rise above $90 per barrel (and potentially to the upper $90 per barrel).
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Bullish
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DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.