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Crude

Recession concerns and a stronger USD sends WTI back below $80WTI suffered its worst day in 30 yesterday, with a combination of a stronger US dollar, recession concerns and weaker natural gas prices all playing their part for a bearish session. A bearish outside day formed which markets a double top around $81.20, daily volume was above average (and its highest in 14 days) which adds weigh to the bearish reversal candle. Also note that previously the market has reversed lower around the 100-day EMA, yet here it is trying to turn lower around the 50-day EMA (which itself is below the 100-day EMA). A bearish divergence also formed on RSI ahead of the double top, therefore the bias is for another dip lower. A break of the September low assumes bearish continuation, and next support resides around 72.50 – 73.40. In light of seeking to ‘remain nimble’, we prefer to stick to intraday timeframes in line with the daily bias. Commitment of traders (managed funds) We can see that net-long exposure has been ticking higher on WTI for managed funds, but this is due to shorts being covered and not new longs being initiated in recent weeks. Given the negative sentiment then it’s plausible to suspect some of those bears will now be returning. But if or when we see gross longs increase and gross shorts decrease, we would be more confident in calling a bottom in oil. We’re just not there yet.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by CityIndex
CRUDE OIL Bounces... how high?As previously mentioned, Crude was to break 76, and head down to a target of 67. It did break down below 76 decisively, but found a support at 70. And it appears to be bouncing off the 70 support level. There are two main ranges and in combination, the yellow box denotes the current consolidation area over the next couple of months. Noted the Bullish Divergence on the MACD, although the VolDiv (lower panel) is still showing some bearish momentum. Expecting a (consolidating) bounce to 85-90, the latter being resistance.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
1
Mixed view on the oil market In our previous article, we said that we would like to abstain from setting any price outlook for USOIL after it stopped 0.10$ above our 70$ price target. Unfortunately, that continues to be the case also today, and we do not wish to set any new price targets. However, we would like to update at least some thoughts on the asset. On 8th December 2022, we floated the idea of the price deviating too far from its moving averages. Interestingly, the next day the price halted its decline and started going up. Since then, the price has broken above 20-day SMA. As a result, USOIL currently trades near the 78.90$ price tag. At the moment, we will pay close attention to the price action. If the price breaks above 80$ and holds there, it will bolster the bullish case for USOIL in the short term. In such a scenario, it could be possible that USOIL will attempt to fully retrace toward its 50-day SMA. That would mark a significant downtrend correction and perhaps even foreshadow a bigger move up. However, our current thoughts about the oil market are mixed. There are several factors responsible for that. First, economic activity is slowing down rapidly, weighing on oil demand in the coming months. Second, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that the Earth experienced the coolest November since 2014, which can contrarily boost demand over the winter. Third, the U.S. might consider slowing down or halting releases of Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) as their levels are reaching 1983 lows. In addition to that, there are rumors of Germany and Poland demanding oil from the Russian company Transneft, which opens a debate about whether some of the Russian crude oil can be allowed back into the European market. With that said, we would like to wait longer on the sidelines until we see a clearer picture of the market. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels. If the price holds above the short-term support, it will be bullish in the short term. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOIL
by Tradersweekly
17
BRENT CRUDE OIL BULISH PATTERNDemand for crude oil is expected to rise after a cold wave hit USA, which will likely increase the demand for oil distillates, easing of the COVID measures in China and US crude oil inventories coming up less than the analysts have had expected. British crude oil benchmark, BRENT, had broken the resistance of the triangle pattern, a strong bullish predictor, and the price might reach levels of 87.5 in the next couple of days. In an event of reversal of the trend, the price might reach levels of its previous low of 75.35 RSI and MACD both are confirming the bullish outlook, with MACD histogram above 0 and rising and RSI rising as well and approaching the 50 neutral line. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by legacyFXofficial
USOIl Crude Oil important Support LevelWTI Crude Oil is at a key support level now and i don`t think we have seen the last of it. OPEC+ unexpectedly decided to cut output in October by 100,000 barrels a day. It`s not much for now, but they will continue cutting the supply until they will get the oil to $90. I`m looking for a bounce to the $85 - $92 area before heading to $62 by the end of next year, when i expect the beginning of an electric revolution worldwide. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
TVC:USOILLong
by TopgOptions
2
70$ nearly hit, reconsideration of thoughts, and retracementFor several months, we provided price rankings for USOIL, most of which were fulfilled already. The only price target we kept was 70$ per barrel, which was nearly hit last Friday when the price stopped at 70.10$ (just 0.13% away from the price target). With the price level nearly hit, it is time for us to step away from the market and reconsider the situation. In our previous idea, we outlined how the price deviated too far from its moving averages (20-day SMA and 50-day SMA) and might be setting itself for the price retracement to the upside. After hitting a new low, that became the case for USOIL, with the price rising to 74.30$. At the moment, we do not expect a primary trend reversal from bearish to bullish. However, we want to stay on the sidelines and avoid setting new price targets until the picture gets clearer. Until then, we will maintain a neutral position. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL. Yellow arrows indicate a new low at 70.10$ and retracement toward 20-day SMA in progress. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish (but showing signs of exhaustion) Weekly time frame = Bearish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOIL
by Tradersweekly
7