WTI BULLISH OUTLOOKUS YoY CPI came above expectations yesterday, which led to expectations of further push of the prices. Although US Oil cushion reserve came above expectations, OPEC reported declined production of the month of January, and the expectations are for further increase of global demand for the crude oil.
On the 1H graph the price had broke the resistance of the Flag pattern, suggesting a start of a bullish movement, where, if continues, the price might test levels of 79.63
In the opposite scenario the price might fall to levels of 79.03
Both MACD and RSI indicators are confirming the bullish scenario.
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Crude
CRUDE OIL (WTI) Mid Term Outlook
Current we can see Crude Oil's price action is in the middle of a consolidation correction.
After from the initial push down from the price, market begin to form a larger structure to correct the down move.
We can see now with a few swing highs and lows, a parallel channel like structure is being created.
However, it looks like theres a potenital short term move up first to the top of the structure, before the bigger down move can begin.
For now, its best to wait and see whether we can see a short term up move first, and if it does,
the bigger play is for the downside if the reveral bearish price action is confirmed on the lower time frame.
Thank you
Jojo
Oil grows bearish but SPR refill loomsDespite OPEC cutting its output by an estimated 60 000 barrels per day in January 2023, the price of West Texas Intermediate oil dropped more than 10% from its high of $82.60. This price action follows a series of wild swings within the wide range between $70 and $83. We expect high volatility in the oil market to persist in the first quarter of 2023. Indeed, we think there is a high likelihood of USOIL falling below $70. However, with the U.S. administration seeking to refill its SPR, such a price drop is likely to be short-lived. As conclusion, we think oil will remain stuck within the wide range for a while longer.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of USOIL. Since mid-November 2022, the price can be seen trading within the wide range between $70 and $83.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Neutral/Slightly bearish
Illustration 1.02
The picture above shows the daily chart of USOIL and two simple moving averages. Yellow arrows indicate two technical developments which contradict each other. The first is a bullish crossover between 20-day and 50-day SMAs; the second is the subsequent price drop below these moving averages. These false and contradictory signals are common for moving averages when the price trends sideways.
Illustration 1.03
Illustration 1.03 displays the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels. If the price breaks below Support 1, it will bolster the bearish odds in the short term.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Brent Crude per Monthly ChartCurrently trading at historical high. Recent long low wicks suggest buoyancy. A determined break above highs of recent monthly candles might see a good long trade.
usoil long 4h When trading crude oil using technical analysis, it is important to consider the following key factors:
Chart patterns: Understanding common chart patterns, such as head and shoulders, triangles, and trend lines, can help traders identify potential buying or selling opportunities in the market.
Technical indicators: Technical indicators, such as moving averages, Bollinger Bands, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI), can provide valuable information about market trends and help traders determine the strength of a trend.
Supply and demand: Traders should also consider supply and demand dynamics, such as changes in production levels, global economic conditions, and geopolitical events, which can greatly impact the price of crude oil.
Volatility: The crude oil market is known for its high volatility, and traders should be prepared for significant price movements. It is important to have a risk management strategy in place to limit potential losses.
Diversification: As with any investment, it is important to diversify one's portfolio to minimize risk. Crude oil should be just one component of a well-diversified investment portfolio.
Keep updated: Staying informed about market news and developments, such as changes in production levels, geopolitical events, and economic indicators, can help traders make informed investment decisions.
Patience and discipline: Successful trading in the crude oil market requires patience and discipline. Traders should not make hasty decisions based on emotions, and instead follow a well-thought-out trading plan.
In conclusion, technical analysis can provide valuable insights into the crude oil market, but it should be used in conjunction with other forms of analysis and a well-diversified investment portfolio. As with any investment, there are risks involved and traders should always approach the market with caution.
USOUSD (Crude Oil) Daily: 06/02/2023: Does it fall more?
Main idea:
According to the weekly analysis, we expect a bear market.
In this case, there is a liquidity pool below 72.42 that can be defined as a first target. There is good support at 72.05, if the price can break this support, the price can fall to 67.5.
After collecting liquidity under 72.42, the price may have a short-term upward move. We can define 74.83- 75.7 as a supply zone that can push the price down.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓️06/02/2023
🔎 DYOR
💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
USOIL Risky Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
USOIL has fallen by almost
10% from the horizontal
Resistance level so I think
That it is oversold and
As the price is about to
Retest the horizontal
Support level I think
We will see a small rebound
Buy!
Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading!
See other ideas below too!
Crude Oil Swing trading MCL / Crude Oil
I'm starting with monthly TF - Naked chart
Last months - On January - December can be seen that buyers push price higher and higer but still under $84
on $81,70-82,20 area, we have a support area that was resistence.
This area was touched 3 times, first time with an agresive rejection , second time, move some prices there but nothing wow but in the third touch..there was some move
We can see that it's possible to see a change of trend in this asset.
For stock market traders this is a great oportunity because there are a lot of undervalueated stocks.
Higher crude oil, higher prices for stocks but higher prices for everything
But for now, all we must to do is to wait to see if price move will confirm my analyse, I will wait to see if we have a breakout over 83, if we have, i m long in this !
Crude Oil at Various Support Levels As you can see Crude is currently positioned on a 4/5 year support level which was first tested in May 2018.
As well as that it has reached the breakout point of the descending triangle and has perfectly placed itself on the 0.786 fib retracement level.
All of these indicate a bullish reversal in my opinion, however I wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce before those levels are broken to get rid of weak hands.
Let me know what you think!
Crude Oil (WTI): It Will Keep Falling! Here is Why: 🛢️
Crude Oil broke and closed below a support line of a rising wedge pattern on 4H.
Taking into consideration that the market has recently reached a solid supply area,
probabilities are high that the market will keep falling.
Goals: 78.3 / 77.4
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Natural Gas / NG - Act II: A Number That Starts With "2"My previous call on natural gas made Sept. 19 has come to fruition, achieving all three targets, and in a shorter than expected period of time:
Natural Gas / NG - It's Officially a Bear. Now, Hold My Beer
The question I've asked myself for the last few days is simply: Now that the June lows have been taken out, is it time for a reversal?
And frankly, I don't believe a (sustained) reversal is imminent, mostly because I really do believe $18 NG1 is incoming and these market makers, who are total maniacs, will not make it so easy for one to go long.
Things to keep in mind when we're so close to the end of the month and major lows have been achieved:
1. Look out for bounces as monthly candle wicks are painted
2. Look out for monthly candle highs to be painted in the first days/weeks of November
3. Big volume gaps between $6.3 and $5. "It's only 23%!"
4. Big bounce from $4.9 to $5.3 June lows are likely
Trendlines are astrology, for real. Stop believing in them. No banks and no trading floors at Shell, Exxon, Aramco, Gazprom, are sitting there thinking of what to do with billions of dollars of inventory and drawing a diagonal line between two lows and thinking to themselves about such and such "support." That is truly absurd.
Yet, you should pay attention to these things because, to the contrary, they're used to fleece dumb money. The markets revolve around fleecing dumb money, and there are entire funds with billions of dollars of dumb money.
To put this trendline into perspective, although it looks reasonable on the 4H, look how absurd this is on the monthly:
That being said, it's also reasonable on the 1W and 1D charts:
&
We are notably at that point, below the psychological $5 level and more or less at the trendline, and at the end of the month. When June made its Armageddon move downwards it came right as the monthly contract closed, so I personally do not expect a repeat of the same situation.
I think a bounce to $5.3 is more or less inevitable, and I suspect rather than break through it and act like Silver/Gold/WTI has retracing to newer highs, it will bounce off the low and manufacture the kind of "resistance" found in technical analysis books to encourage late shorts.
Early November may actually show us a more bullish impulse back to $6, but keep in mind that to get back to that mid-October weekly gap would more or less fill the entire October monthly bar with a November wick, so that gap is likely a breakaway gap that will stay in place for some time.
Anyways, what I expect to see is after some retrace to catch late shorts and squeeze and break them, as well as to exploit early bulls, we will see a retrace, one that won't last long and will probably be quickly accompanied by another breakaway gap.
I believe that natural gas will, in a very quick period of time, actually print a number as low as $2.9, a move that will be accompanied by WTI also setting new lows and approaching $50, as I noted in a recent call:
WTI Crude Oil / CL1 - Accumulation Before Global Conflict
Europe has already filled their coffers with $9-10 US LNG delivered via boat and until they need to refill the barrels in a few months after Freeport is re-opened, prices should be suppressed as producers and funds get net long on energy.
The reason is, problems between NATO and Russia and problems between the World and the Chinese Communist Party under the new found "Emperor" Xi and his delusional miscalculation to stay attached to Marxist-Leninism and communism will lead the Party to either attack Russia alongside NATO or to pinch both Russia and NATO with an assault on Taiwan.
Energy will be _extremely_ expensive everywhere once the global conflict breaks out. But as with all such moves, first come lows that are more uncomfortable than early bulls and scared bears are comfortable with.
2023 will not be a pleasant year, so make sure you do your utmost to have a proper Christmas with your family and act like a good person.
Whoever you are who is reading this, what I want to tell you is this: If you want a future, you need to start by first rejecting communist culture, especially all things Marxist-Leninism.
Next, you need to reject the Chinese Communist Party, for it is guilty of the crime of live organ harvesting genocide against Falun Gong and will be purged by history.
Third, you need to start to emphasize virtue and improve your conduct and morality on a foundation of traditional human culture.
I am not talking about dogma, and I am not talking about religion. Both of those are totally useless. I am talking about a rational understanding of what it means to be "a human being," the things that have allowed this civilization and this cycle of history to persist over the last 5,000 years, founded on the back of the Chinese dynasties.
There are so many lessons in history. I hope that whoever has the fortune to encounter my words can walk out of the catastrophe. But if your thoughts are unrighteous, then if you can't, you can't.
Regrets, however, will be no help at all.
It's just like poker: you have to figure it out and have your bets placed before the cards are turned face up. Once the truth is revealed, everything is fixed.
CrudeOil Futures ( CRUDEOIL1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: CrudeOil Futures ( CRUDEOIL1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise
Type: Bullish Rise
Resistance: 7676
Pivot: 6764
Support: 5832
Preferred case: On the H4 chart, we have a bullish bias. To add confluence to this, price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price head back up to retest the pivot at 6764, where the 50% Fibonacci line is.
Alternative scenario: Price may possibly head back down towards the support at 5832, where the previous swing low is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.