Crude
WTI OIL: Trend changing to bullish.WTI Oil pulled back as we expected on our previous trade and filled the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
Consistent with the March 24th 0.618 Fib fill (and the RSI on a harmonic buy level), a rebound now is heavily favored as the Falling Resistance from the prior market top, has already broken.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 76.00 (MA200 4h).
Tips:
1. RSI (4h) crossed above the MA, as it did on March 27th on the previous market rally. This is an additional strong buy signal.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
CRUDE OIL (WTI) Bearish Pattern Explained🛢
WTI Crude Oil has recently reached a key horizontal resistance.
Testing that, the price formed a head and shoulders pattern.
Its neckline was broken yesterday.
The price is currently retesting that.
I believe that selling volumes are currently accumulating.
Probabilities are high that we will see a bearish move soon.
Goals will be: 69.87 / 68.11
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WTI BEARISH OUTLOOK CONTINUESThe weak trade and inflation data from China further casts doubt on the ability of fast economical recovery of the country after COVID.
This puts a rench in OPEC's forecast that China will drive the demand for crude oil to record high.
The technical indicators are also confirming the downtrend, with MACD histogram being below 0 and RSI under 50 neutral line.
If this scenario continues, the price of the instrument might test levels of 64 and even 62. In the opposite scenario, the price might revert and test 77 point resistance.
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WTI BEARISH OUTLOOKThe price of WTI fell with 1.15 USD last trading day, due to expectations by investors that Fed will keep increasing the interest rate. US CPI had risen in April and is suggesting that the interest rates will remain high.
Nearly 3M barrels oil inventory growth, weaker imports in April and slow export growth to China are putting additional downward pressure to the price of the crude oil.
Both RSI and MACD indicators are also suggesting continue of the down trend. If this trend continues, the price might test levels of 64 USD.
In the opposite scenario, the price might reach levels of 77 USD.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Crude Oil Ka-BoingNice long tail on the weekly chart, after a lower low. Technical indicators MACD and VolDiv appear bearish but this is suspiciously like a hidden dragon.
Taken altogether, the first resistance is 76, and once close above 80 is firmed bullish. The lower low suggests more downside, but the length of that tail is telling a very bullish story for the next couple of weeks.
So... expecting a consolidation range fighting between bears and bulls between 70-80; while leaning towards a bullish breakout much later... perhaps (ideally) after higher low.
Do note that in alignment to the earlier post about the USD dropping, it does look like Crude now has a better chance of turning around to reinstate its bullish efforts.
WTI Crude Volatility Hello traders,
As you can see from the chart above, the low at 63 last Thursday was fiercely rejected for a bounce up into the long but we are not out of the woods just yet as far as bearish dumps are concerned. Tomorrow will be a crucial start for WTI in order to determine its next short to medium term direction with key fundamentals and geopolitical machinations at play. Trade safely with conservative lot sizes until the excess volatility has moderated.
Oil One Step From a Major Buy SignalThursday brings us a short update on brent oil. This instrument has been heavily bombarded recently by the macro data, not only for oil, but also the macro data for the USD.
Let’s start with the one for oil. Yesterday’s inventories. Data came in hot (bullish for oil) as the number were significantly below expectation, showing a decrease of 4.5 mln barrels from the previous week. Well, how about that?
As for the USD, yesterday’s less hawkish FED was bearish for the dollar, so again, bullish for instruments quoted in the dollar like our oil. So, we had two positive sets of information for oil and yes, brent used it wisely.
Oil One Step From a Major Buy Signal
As was widely expected, the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 75 basis points (bps) at the July meeting, taking the target rate range to 2.25%–2.5%. This is just below the Fed’s estimate for a neutral policy stance in the longer run (2.5%). At the press conference, Chair Jerome Powell said that “modestly restrictive” monetary policy is warranted by the current economic fundamentals, including elevated inflation, and mentioned that another outsize rate hike may be necessary at the next meeting in September in order to ensure monetary policy is restrictive.
The overall movement of gold prices was bearish since inflation numbers rose and the U.S dollar index moved bullishly. However, there might be a change in the situation as gold prices currently moving upward while the U.S dollar index stalled and the stock market is trading slightly lower. If gold prices could continue the bullish movement and close above $1,800 then the bullish trend is set to continue.
Silver prices bounced from the $18.50 support level and made a bullish close yesterday. There is a bullish continuation in today’s trading session which brings the price near the $20.00 handle. If the price could maintain the bullish pressure and continue upward to close above $21.35 then the price will start a new bullish trend.
Crude oil prices situation is not good for the bull as the price could not maintain the bullish pressure. There is a bullish attempt today but the price currently trading below the opening level. If the price is pushed lower and closes below $95.25 then traders will prepare for a bearish continuation.
How far will OIL GO UP?
Well, if you ak this question then you are no professional, experienced trader, but a naive one, and have not understoad the purpose of trading.
Keep it simple. Keep your stops alert.
Crude Oil Gives up OPEC Cut GainOIL STRATEGY POWER SELL
Already predicted the Fall of ENERGY and Oil months ago.
Crude oil prices edged lower Monday, extending a two-week slide in which macroeconomic concerns and signs of weakening refined product demand have outweighed a surprise supply cut made by some OPEC+ members on May 2.
A group of large oil producers led by Saudi Arabia said Sunday they would cut more than a million barrels of output a day starting next month, a surprise move that upset Washington and led to a jump in crude prices amid concerns about the global economy.
The output cut adds to a reduction of 2 million barrels a day agreed to in October by the Saudi-led Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and a group of other producers led by Russia. Taken together, the output cuts amount to about 3% of the world’s petroleum production taken off the market in seven months.
Futures on WTI crude oil, the U.S. benchmark, declined more than 1% Friday's closing price and were trading for less than $76 a barrel, about where they settled on March 31, the last trading day before the surprise cut was made. That's down from a peak of over $83 a barrel reached in the second week after the oil cartel's announcement.
Analysts are pinning today's drop on Chinese government data released over the weekend showing that manufacturing activity fell between March and April. China is the world's second-largest consumer of oil, behind the U.S.
CRUDE to bounce a bit, if at all, else dive hardBased on Crude's weekly chart, it clearly lost the bullish plot (posted 1st May, see linked post). As of the current Crude futures price action, a few preliminary observations can be recorded...
1. A lower low is recorded, and this aligns with the weekly technical outlook of a more bearish close to the weeks ahead;
2. Yesterday closing at 68.52 broke down all prior marked supports, except for the TDST at 66.12.
Note that a close below and 3 days of closing below 66.12 changes Crude into a bearish primary trend. So, expect a lot of dancing about (or bounces off) this area, until that happens.
3. Today closing is important... IF closing at current levels, then a bounce to 74-76 can be expected, due to the long shadow/tail (green ellipse). Otherwise, a breakdown below the TDST support level turns all bearish.
4. Technically, it appears to favour further downside once market hours open. MACD and VolDiv on the daily are aligned to weekly indication of more downside momentum, having already crossed into bear territory.
Watch the USD... it has a lot to do with the magnitude, although other fundamentals will affect Crude directly. Mindful that tomorrow is the Non-farm Payrolls.
Crude lost the bullish plotIt appears that Crude lost the bullishness.
Initially in March, Crude broke up into the range, and expected bullishness to breakout on the other side, which gave much upside. This was followed by a marubozu and then a gap up. Thing is, it met resistance and failed. Breaking back down and now almost closing the gap.
Once the gap is closed, looking for 66-70 for a period to consolidate. MACD is weakening, VolDiv crossing down very soon.
WTI double bottom touch point on 4H, ascend on queue...OIL just created a double bottom touch point on 4H data -- conveying a strong order block support at the current levels.
It is currently attempting to reverse to the upside, and may retest its previous peak at 80 levels soon.
Accumulation at the current price has started and a 4H higher lows has been created -- suggesting a shifting trend.
Spotted at 74.00
TAYOR.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Aggressive sellingWTI Crude Oil is on a strong selloff that was accurately anticipated by our firm on the 1D MA200 rejection, making a LH on the long term Channel Down and providing us with the most optimal sell entry. The 4H technicals are oversold but the 1D remains on standard bearish price action (RSI = 42.644, MACD = 0.240, ADX = 42.786) and we don't expect this selling to take a pause before the 1D RSI tests the S1 (39.50).
Our short term target has always been 74.00 and after a short lived rebound we expect 72.00. Unless 1D closes a candle above the 1D MA50, in which case a bigger rebound is possible to 80.00 before an even deeper fall to 66.00.
Prior ideas:
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HAS CRUDE OILD FOUND SUPPORT @ 77?A bullish close after today's trading will provide more confirmation. however, price has tested the support level at 77 for the past 4 days and bulls keep sending price high every time bears brought the price low...
N.B!
- USOIL price might not follow drawn lines . Actual price movement may likely differ from the forecast.
- Let emotions and sentiments work for you
- ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
#usoil
#crudeoil
#wti
#brentoil
CRUDE OIL - SELL AND BUY SCENARIOSThe trend on the 1h time-frame is broken, but until the resistance (green line) is bearish because part of the GAP has not yet been completely closed and we can have a rise up to the resistance from which a rejection can follow and then a closing of the gap and barely then a climb with breaking resistance, so I would wait now to see what happens. But I'm looking to enter BUY
Weekly FOREX Forecast: April 24 - 28th (Part 1)Welcome to another Forex Daily Forecast!
We will be preparing for the trading week ahead:
- Analysis of the individual currency Futures, to identify the strong and the weak
- Analysis of the FX pairs (EURUSD, EURCAD, ...)
- Analysis of Gold, Silver, and OIl too!
- Plot and plan for the best setups.
I'm taking my time with this analysis with the viewer in mind. I want you to see the markets through my eyes, so the analysis is fresh, done live, for you to learn how to do this yourself. I want to raise independent traders, capable of reading the markets and planning their own trades. I'm hoping we can end up raising each other's level, in an "iron sharpens iron" kind of way, coming together and sharing trade ideas in our community of traders.
Always remember, just because they aren't setting up now, doesn't mean it won't set up later! So stay tuned for updates!
We are going to look in depth at the forex market, using top down analysis. If you have a question on any of the content, please leave a message in the comments section. For beginners, this is how you analyze forex markets, identify supply and demand zones, key levels of support and resistance, and look for swing trade setups.
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Crude Oil - Why i am BearishThere are several aspects that I am bearish on this chart.
First of all, we have a huge GAP on daily that must be closed soon.
Secondly, Wednesday's stock data came below those of the market, so the crude oil stock is higher than the estimates, which is very bad because they have already reduced production by 1.5mln/day, which means that unless they . had reduced production, now the price of Crude Oil would have been between 50-60 usd/barrel.
Now the graph shows us a close below the resistance zone, which at least for a short time, I will have a SHORT position.
Also, look at the RSI , its over bought and we need a corection of price to create more demand.
WTI OIL on a triple Resistance test! Get ready for a big move.WTI Oil (USOIL) has gone a long way since our buy call a month ago, that not only did it hit its target but smashed through the Jan Lower Highs and the 1D MA100:
The critical development of the week is that it hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since August 30 2022. Naturally that alone constitutes big news as along with the 83.35 High of December 01 and the top (Lower Highs trend-line) if the 8-month Channel Down, form a Triple Resistance Cluster.
In our opinion, as long as the price is inside the Channel Down, we have a huge long-term sell opportunity, with Target 1 being on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at 76.50.
If on the other hand breaks above the Channel Down, we will hedge buy on the short-term and target the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) at 88.00, which is untouched since October 10.
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