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WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/10/23For Thursday, the 81.49 - 81.66 area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 86.28 remains a 2 - 3 week target, 102.96 attainable by the end of the year.   In the more immediate vicinity, 84.18 can contain session activity, above which 86.28 is attainable intraday and able to contain weekly buying pressures, once tested the market susceptible to falling back to 81.49 long-term support within 1 - 2 weeks.   A daily settlement above 86.28 indicates 92.93 - 93.53 over the following 3 - 5 weeks, where the market can top out on a monthly basis.   Downside Thursday, closing below 81.49 indicates a good August high, 77.86 then expected within 3 - 5 days, 70.77 by the end of September.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/8/23For Tuesday, the 81.49 - 81.71 area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 86.54 remains a 2 - 3 week target, 102.96 attainable by the end of the year.   Upside Tuesday, 84.17 can contain session strength, while closing above 84.17 indicates 86.54 within several days, able to contain weekly buying pressures and the point to settle above for yielding 92.93 - 93.53 over the following 3 - 5 weeks, where the market can top out on a monthly basis.   Downside Tuesday, closing below 81.49 indicates a good August high, and quite possibly through the balance of the year, 75.49 then considered 1 - 2 week target, possibly yielding 62.14 by the end of the year.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
WTI OIL Double Top rejection or break-out?WTI Oil (USOIL) almost hit today 83.50 (Resistance 1), which was the April 12 High that caused a rejection on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The 1D MA200 is now long broken, so any 1D candle close above Resistance 1 will be a bullish break-out targeting Resistance 2. In that case we will buy and target 93.00. Until it breaks though, especially after an initial bearish warning shot on the 1D RSI that broke below its MA trend-line from overbought levels, it is very likely today's test to end with a price rejection towards 74.00 (Support 1). In that case, we will wait for the most optimal bearish confirmation by the 1D MACD and sell after a Bearish Cross and a rejection on the 4H MA50 (red trend-line). Our target will be 74.00 (Support 1). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
4
Cracking the Crack SpreadThe ‘crack spread’ is a term used in the oil industry that refers to the differential between the price of crude oil and the petroleum products extracted from it, such as gasoline and heating oil. The name comes from the process of 'cracking' crude oil in a refinery to produce these valuable products. The spread serves as a measure of refining margin, or profitability, for oil refineries. When the prices of petroleum products are high relative to the price of crude oil, the crack spread widens, and refining margins increase, making it profitable for refineries. Conversely, when the price of crude oil is high relative to the products, the crack spread narrows, and refining can become less profitable or even unprofitable. The crack spread is typically expressed in terms of the ratio between the input (crude oil) and the outputs (refined products). For example, a 3:2:1 crack spread assumes that three barrels of crude oil can produce two barrels of gasoline and one barrel of heating oil. In the futures market, the crack spread can be traded by buying crude oil futures and selling futures in its products, thus locking in the margin between input and output prices. This can serve as a form of hedging against price risk for those involved in the oil industry. This week, we will delve into various factors influencing the crack spread and evaluate their potential impact on the current spread; Geopolitical Concerns SPR Refill One of the key points mentioned when we last covered oil was the potential refills of the SPR which are still pending as an attempt to purchase up to 6 million barrels was abandoned at the last minute. As the drawdown in the SPR continues, it seems inevitable that the Biden administration will have to replenish the reserve, likely pushing oil prices higher due to increased demand. Russia Ukraine escalation The simmering tensions of the Russia-Ukraine conflict leave us wondering if the price of crude oil might escalate further. The ongoing conflict focuses on a key port in the Black Sea. Consequently, this could potentially impact up to 20% of oil exports from Russia. Although most major nations no longer rely on Russia for oil supply, some countries are still buying from Russia. This leads to the concern that such countries might have to turn to the open market to make up for their supply shortage one day. Seasonality Crack falls in the 2nd half of the year Seasonal trends indicate a pattern where the 3:2:1 crack spread declines in the second half of the year. This trend has persisted for 6 out of the past 10 years, with the average decline of 29%. Three of the remaining four years closed flat, with one year ending approximately 20% higher. Economic Growth Current economic growth weak but some soft landing expected The year-on-year GDPs for major economies are trailing their long-term averages, indicating still fragile economic growth as industries and consumers grapple with sticky inflation and high rates. Weak economic growth generally dampens the crack spread, as industries and consumers cut back on spending, reducing the demand for refined products. Currency Interplay Between Dollar, Crude, and Crack Spread The Inverse Dollar and Crude Oil has as long-standing positive correlation up until the Russian-Ukraine Crisis when both Crude Oil and the dollar move sharply higher. As this relationship now begins to normalize again, any weakness in the dollar could provide the fuel for Crude & the Crack Spread to rally again. The crack spread is also highly correlated with Crude Oil outright prices, hence any view on crude oil can also be expressed using the Crack Spread. The crack spread hit an all-time high in June 2022 amidst the Russia-Ukraine tensions. Currently, the spread trades at a higher range relative to the past two decades and seems to face some resistance at the previous all-time high in 2013. On a shorter timeframe, the crack spread appears to be breaking out of a symmetrical triangle to the upside, typically a signal of bullish continuation. With prices slightly dipping, this could present an enticing opportunity. On balance the impending risk of the geopolitical event breaking out as well as the structurally weakening dollar seems to outweigh the seasonality and economic weakness effect. To express our view on the 3:2:1 crack spread, we can set up a long position on the crack spread. This can be set up by buying 2 RBOB Gasoline Futures & 1 NY Harbor ULSD Futures and selling 3 Crude Oil Futures at the current level of 114.5, stop loss at 97 and take profit at 140. The calculation of the 3:2:1 crack spread should also be noted as: (2 * RBOB Gasoline Futures + 1 * NY Harbor ULSD Futures ) * 42 – (3 * Crude Oil Futures). The factor 42 is multiplied to the RBOB Gasoline Futures and NY Harbor ULSD Futures as the two are quoted in USD per gallon, this converts the price quotation in Barrel terms, which is the same as Crude Oil Futures. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.eia.gov www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
NYMEX:RB1!Long
by inspirante
2
Trading Idea - #CrudeOil My trading idea for - #CrudeOil - BUY Entry: 82.60 USD Target: 90.00 USD (+8.5% profit) #CrudeOil has risen to $85 per barrel due to #Opec production cuts. Crude oil inventories are expected to decline in the second half of 2023 (source: www.energyintel.com). Means also higher demand and higher prices. In July alone, the price of oil rose by 13% - more than Saudi Arabia's 10% production cut. They have certainly made good profits and want to maintain this trend for as long as possible. I expect it to continue upwards until November. #Brent is currently trading at October contracts. I expect prices to fall as we get closer to January 2024 contracts.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Traderherz-Analytics
1
XTIUSD ( US OIL ) LONG term Trade AnalysisHello Traders In This Chart XTIUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By Forex Planet today XNGUSD analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (XTIUSD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on XTIUSD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This Video is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts.
FXOPEN:XTIUSDLong
by ForexPlanet20
6/8/23 US-Oil US oil here giving us a clear bullish range to the upside after sweeping out the Asia load and London low from Friday we're taking this as a signal price once you travel higher so we're going to look to buy from the low of the range. Now overall this range has everything we've looked for within a setup but of course we will use the same systems we always use and look for a clean entry, overall we are bullish on oil so we're going to look to buy from the low. Remember to always read order flow and follow what price is showing you instead of trading based on your desired direction. And, as always, stick to your risk and your plan. We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
TVC:USOIL
by PipSurfingSociety
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/7/23For Monday, the 81.49 - 81.73 area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 86.67 remains a 2 - 3 week target, 102.96 attainable by the end of the year. Upside Monday, 84.17 can contain session strength, while closing above 84.17 indicates 86.67 within several days, able to contain weekly buying pressures and the point to settle above for yielding 92.93 - 93.53 over the following 3 - 5 weeks, where the market can top out on a monthly basis. Downside Monday, closing below 81.49 indicates a good August high, and quite possibly through the balance of the year, 75.49 then considered 1 - 2 week target, possibly yielding 62.14 by the end of the year.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
50 or 100?USOIL has rallied from 70 to 76 after RSI divergence on the daily chart. The key challenge if upward trend has to solidify is breaking and retest of the 200EMA, which is currently at 77. Failing which, a possible return to the lows. 1. In the weekly chart, pull back to the 200EMA in Jan, has been stuck in a range between 67 and 83 since then. 2. Breakout of resistance could lead prices to 100, breakdown of support could lead to the 50 zone. 3. Breakout on the upside could pile on downward pressure on Nifty and Bank Nifty due to the dependence of the Indian economy on crude. 4. Crude traded higher, the market hoping for a pause in the interest rate hikes by the Fed in its meeting next week.
TVC:USOIL
by Tradeception_
1
Crude Oil: Weekly Shift to BullishCrude oil is pushing higher this week after breaking above trendline resistance last week, and after holding above the 200-week price average this summer. Price is now trending above all MA's on a weekly basis other than the 100ma which rests near $85 and is the short-term resistance level to watch on this push higher. The PPO indicator shows the green PPO line rising above the purple signal line which indicates short-term bullish momentum. The PPO line is also close to crossing back above the 0 level which would indicate a shift to bullish momentum on an intermediate to long-term basis. The TDI indicator shows the green RSI line crossing above the 60 level which indicates a bullish trend in the short-term. The RSI line is currently above the the upper white Bollinger Band which indicates extreme bullish momentum; generally you want to remain long when the RSI line is trending above the upper BBand. Overall trend and momentum are looking strong on a weekly basis here, 100ma is the resistance level to watch as that has been strong resistance since late 2022. A push above there would likely see price continue to move higher and test the $100 level.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by PrepForProfit
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/4/23For Friday, the 80.50 - 81.61 long-term resistance area can contain buying through summer activity, below which 76.77 is likely by the end of next week, 62.14 attainable over the next 3-5 months. On the other hand, a weekly settlement today at or above 82.42 (1% above 81.61 – page 2) would set off a meaningful buy signal into later year, 87.27 then expected within 3-5 weeks, 103.33 within 3-5 months (p 2). Downside Friday, 78.97 can contain intraday weakness, while breaking/opening below 78.97 allows 76.77 intraday, able to contain selling into next week and the point to settle below for then indicating 70.40 over the next 2-3 weeks.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/3/23For Thursday, the 80.65 - 81.61 long-term resistance area can contain buying through summer activity, below which 76.57 is likely within 1 - 2 weeks, 62.14 attainable over the next 3 - 5 months. On the other hand, closing today above 82.42 signals 84.44 within the week, while a weekly settlement tomorrow at or above 82.42 (1% above 81.61) would set off a buy signal into later year, 87.27 then expected within 3 - 5 weeks, 103.33 within 3 - 5 months. Downside Thursday, 78.56 can contain intraday weakness, while breaking/opening below 78.56 indicates 76.57 - 77.37 intraday, able to contain weekly selling pressures and the point to settle below for then indicating 70.40 over the next 2 - 3 weeks.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
ukoil 8hours sell side 15% swing trade setup🔸Today let's review the 8 hour chart for brent oil . Noteworthy bounce in progress after accumulation near lows, however currently getting overbought. 🔸OPEC production cuts finally kicked it, therefore we got a decent pump in the oil market. Strong resistances overhead near 87.20 and 89.20, expecting bull trap setup after we break above the stop loss clusters. 🔸Recommended strategy for BEARS: look out for bull trap setup near 90.60 and get ready to short sell from overhead. limited upside beyond 90.60 usd, bears will target re-test of mirror s/r level at 77.80 and 75.20 usd. this is a 15% swing trade setup on sell side, good luck traders! 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
TVC:UKOILShort
by ProjectSyndicate
28
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/2/23For Wednesday, the 80.65 - 81.61 long-term resistance area can contain buying through summer activity, below which 76.48 is likely within 1 - 2 weeks, 62.14 attainable over the next 3 - 5 months.   On the other hand, closing today above 82.42 signals 84.44 within the week, while a weekly settlement Friday at or above 82.42 (1% above 81.61) would set off a buy signal into later year, 87.27 then expected within 3 - 5 weeks, 103.33 within 3 - 5 months.   Downside Wednesday, closing below 80.53 indicates a good weekly high, 76.48 - 76.97 then expected by the end of next week, able to contain weekly selling pressures when tested and a meaningful downside continuation point into later August.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 8/1/23For Tuesday, the 80.65 - 81.61 long-term resistance area can contain buying through summer activity, below which 73.40 is likely by the end of August, 62.14 attainable over the next 3 - 5 months.   On the other hand, closing today above 82.42 signals 84.48 within the week, while a weekly settlement Friday at or above 82.42 (1% above 81.61) would set off a buy signal into later year, 87.27 then expected within 3 - 5 weeks, 103.33 over the following 3 - 5 months.   Downside Tuesday, 78.12 can contain session weakness, while closing below 78.12 indicates a good high through next week, 76.12 - 76.13 then expected over that time horizon, able to contain weekly selling pressures when tested and a meaningful downside continuation point into later August.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
WTI CRUDE OIL: Overbought on 1D but still bullish.WTI Crude Oil turned overbought on the 1D time-frame (RSI = 70.618, MACD = 2.330, ADX = 75.260) as it is extending its relentless rally inside a Channel Up pattern since the June 28th low. This 1 month uptrend is approaching the R1 (83.50), which is the High of April 12th and current Resistance. We are using this as a short-term buy opportunity (TP1 = 83.50). As long as the Channel Up holds, we will buy again upon a pull back (TP2 = 85.50). If the price crosses under the 4H MA100 though, it would mean the end of the bullish trend, and we will shor, targeting S1 (TP = 74.00). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILLong
by InvestingScope
9
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/31/23A two-sided framework continues through summer between 62.14 long-term support, and 81.61 long-term resistance, both regions able to contain seasonal activity. Upside, 81.61 can contain buying into later year, once tested 62.14 attainable over the following 3 - 5 months, where the market can bottom out on a seasonal basis. On the other hand, a weekly settlement above 81.61 indicates a good low for the year, 87.27 then expected within 3 - 5 weeks, 103.33 considered a 3 - 5 month target able to contain buying well into next year. - For Monday, the 80.65 - 81.61 long-term resistance area remains can contain buying through summer activity, below which 73.40 is likely by the end of August, 62.14 attainable over the next 3 - 5 months. On the other hand, closing today above 81.61 allows 84.52 within the week, while a weekly settlement Friday at or above 82.42 (1% above 81.61) would set off a buy signal into later year, 87.27 then expected within 3 - 5 weeks, 103.33 over the following 3 - 5 months. Downside Monday, 78.12 can contain session weakness, while closing below 78.12 indicates a good high through next week, 74.83 - 75.41 then expected within 1 - 2 weeks, able to contain weekly selling pressures when tested and a meaningful downside continuation point into later August.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
US-Oil 30/7/23US oil here showing us a very clear bullish movement we had a perfect tap into the low of our range last week we're now looking for this to push higher the only thing that makes me doubt this range overall is the fact that we've created relative equal lows on the lower half of our bullish range we also have not created the swing high so we do not know how large this range is going to be until we break a structure to the downside we would continue to follow this bullish I will look to enter for a buy if we do pull back into our lower area.
TVC:USOIL
by PipSurfingSociety
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 7/28/23For Friday, the 78.04 level can contain selling through the balance of the week, above which 80.65 - 81.73 long-term resistance remains a 3 - 5 day target able to contain buying through summer activity. A weekly settlement today at or above 82.55 (1% above 81.73) would set off a significant buy signal into later year, 103.70 then expected over the next 3 - 5 months. Downside Friday, closing below 78.04 indicates a good high through next week, 76.57 then expected within several days, 73.38 within 2 - 3 weeks, able to contain weekly selling pressures when tested and a meaningful downside continuation point into later August.
NYMEX:CL1!
by SpecialeAnalysis