CRPTOCURRENCY
The Bitcoin Peak: When Will the Cycle End?Been a while since I published a TA. I’ve been digging deep trying to decipher when the cycle top will come in for Bitcoin. Some say it’s an impossible feat. Well, let’s give it a go.
There are two major dates and one minor date for a possible cycle top:
May 2025
**Volume Flow**: 1157 Days
**From June Bottom**: 1064 days
**ETH clear bottom**: June 2022
**Bar Pattern Fractal**: From 2015 bottom
**221k Price Target**: Target crosses with the model in May.
September 2025
**From November Bottom**: 1064 days
**Major Macro Time Fibonacci**
**Chainlink Fractal**
**Chainlink Time Fib**
March 2025
**Small Time Fibonacci**
**Bull Flag End**
**Average % move and time since 2019**
As you can see, there is a lot of evidence to unpack here, so it’s going to be a long one. Let’s start with the first date: May 2025.
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May 2025
Volume Flow on Heikin Candles on the Monthly shows that from the Bearish cross to the cycle top is 1126 days, which ends up being May.
Every cycle, Bitcoin has always put in a double bottom to mark its cycle low. As you can see, in 2022 we had two major crashes, and even though it’s not 100% clear here, we got a double bottom.
The amazing thing about the first bottom in June 2022 is that it mirrored the first bottom of the cycle low of 2015. That fractal was a mirror, showing the importance of this first low in Bitcoin in June 2022.
If we overlay the 2015 fractal, we get the top coming in May.
For anyone who doesn’t know, the last two cycles, Bitcoin has taken 1064 days from Cycle Low to Cycle Top. 1064 days from the June 2022 low is May.
ETH has a much clearer bottom than Bitcoin this cycle. It also took 1064 days, which puts it in May.
So you can see, there is a lot of evidence pointing towards a May 2025 Cycle Top for Bitcoin.
---
September/October 2025
1064 days from the second bottom in November 2022 would be October 2025.
For years, I have been using this Major Macro Time Fibonacci sequence that shows me important moments in Bitcoin’s cycles. The last pointed to a move down to 48k in August 2023, which is hard to see on the 2Week chart.
As you can see, it comes close to pinpointing moves, so the next date is the end of September 2025, which lines up with the 1064 days from November 2022.
I have been following this Chainlink fractal for more than a year. We traded LINK using this fractal back in October 2023. You can check my TAs from that period. The fractal is still valid and tops in September 2025.
Chainlink Fibonacci Time Sequence has been hitting home runs time and time again, from pinpointing the top all the way down to the bottom. The next date is late August 2025, very close to September 2025.
---
March 2025
This date has far less weight for a cycle top but could be part of a major local top and correction.
A small Time Fibonacci sequence taken from this level shows that March 31st is the next date, and the one after that is late August 2025, the same as the Chainlink fractal.
240% over 162 days is the average that Bitcoin moves up since 2019. If we just overlay the average, we get 127k by mid-February 2025.
A mirror move from October 2023 to March 2024 puts us in March 2025.
---
Elliott Wave Section
I’m not an expert in this field but will throw in some takes.
Could we possibly be in Wave 4 out of 5?
Or could we be finishing Wave 3 right now and in for the first large correction of this bull market?
The fact is, the last time we hit this band on this model was January 2021. After that, there was a 31% correction lasting 31 days.
Sometimes 5 waves are very clear. Take GOLD, for example: there is a clear 5-wave pattern at max Fibonacci extension. This is a massive macro sell signal, in my opinion. Crazy how GOLD hit this level on Wave 5 as Bitcoin breaks 100k.
---
### **Price Targets
If we take the first cycle and overlay to 2015 cycle, it gave us the cycle top in 2021.
If we do the same for this cycle and overlay the 2015 cycle, we get a price target of 221k, which puts it at the top of my model in May 2025. Just discovered this—that’s one more point for May 2025.
As you can see, in the last two cycles it worked. Will it work this time? Who knows.
---
Pi Cycle Indicator
If we just run a rough projection on when the next cross will be, it crosses in April 2025, very close to May. Keep in mind this is a very rough idea of when it could cross.
---
Conclusion
We have 5 points in favor of May 2025, 4 points in favor of September 2025, and 2 points for March 2025. As always, the path is never clear for Bitcoin. Until we get much further down the road, I won’t conclusively know which date it will be.
This model I have been using has been so accurate thus far. We are so high up the last bands that we are most likely going to get some sort of long consolidation period with a correction soon, which would give the altcoin market a run.
TONUSDTThe chart is at a resistance point and we are likely to see a price of 7$ in the medium term.
Alikze »» TONCOIN | Corrective scenario of ending wave 3💎 In the daily and weekly time, it is moving in an ascending channel, and currently the current wave of the 3rd ascending wave has started from the bottom of the channel.
💎 Scenario 1: Currently, it is placed in an important resistance, which according to the shaded area in the confirmation of its correction process, we can wait for the candle to confirm that this correction can continue until the green box area, which is also in the midline of the channel.
💎 Therefore, it is not recommended to buy at the moment and you should wait for the range break to continue the process.
🔔 Scenario 2: otherwise, correction should be seen up to the green box area. In case of a break, this upward trend can continue up to the channel ceiling.
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waves waves usdt daily analyses
time frame daily
risk rewards ratio >1.5
waves price raised good but it heated to a weak resistance (red box on the range 2.5 $ ) and it fell down corrected 20% and started to pump again . my first target is shown in the chart 3.24 $. we see in the chart strong resistance ( red box on the range 3-3.5$) and I think here will be good for my first target
Bitcoin prediction from 2 decades experienced multi-millionaireI've been daytrading for 2 decades, made myself a multi-millionaire from trades like these.
Even though my expertise is in stock market, charts are still charts.
Bitcoin chart analysis is showing possible further extension into $110,000 range then drop and slide off to $60,000's area by the end of 1st quarter 2025 as the excitement about Trump/Musk/SEC/etc hits reality.
Where we go from $60,000 we'll discuss once we're there and collect more data.
BNB AT MONTHLY RESISTACE!! BREAKOUT COULD BE MASSIVE!!Technical Analysis: #Binance (monthly update):
BNB looks too bullish in monthly time frame.
Everything explains in chart above.
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#BNBCOIN #CRYPTO #BULLISHRUN #BINANACE #ALTCOIN #UPTREND
Cryptocurrency ADAUSD CARDANO: Next to break out.
I bought into this one recently but it was weighing heavily since the purchase in terms of price not quite breaking-out enough, but that all changed today as Cardano moves out of its squeeze and into climbing and rallying mode.
Earlier in 2024 it entered a Supply-downtrend but in recent months buying entered into Cardano and the charts stated to expand with some volatility to upside prices.
A breakout "jump" is what ADAUSD set-out to do in 2024 and with supply switching mostly over to demand and with Bitcoin now very close to 71,000, that time is near.
SOLANA SOLUSD Breaks-Out & Leads Cryptocurrency
It was not so long ago that Solana was priced below it's 200EMA on the daily chart.
This changed at the weekend when SOLUSD bullishly exited a Triangle pattern and during Monday Asian session has broken out and up over 4%.
Bitcoin in up about 2% in the Asian Monday session
Its Time , Bitcoin 160k by March or September 2025?We are in the early stages of the next bull market. The question was never "if" but rather "when." The probability has shifted significantly to the upside in the last two months. Really, nothing much has been going on, and I’m waiting for my confirmation markers to trigger before making a technical analysis.
In my view, we are in a pretty large bull flag, and a mirror move like the one we saw from September 2023 to March 2024 could push Bitcoin to $160K by March 2025.
There are two major dates I’m focusing on: March/April 2025 and September 2025.
The clearest sign of a change in trend is that we stopped putting in lower lows and formed a triple bottom with bullish divergence on the daily chart.
The puzzle for the rest of 2024 and 2025 is not whether we will have a bull market but where and when the cycle top will occur. It's more of a question of timing, and that’s what I’m focusing on.
**March/April 2025 - Possible Top**
As you can see, since 2019, the average duration of major Bitcoin rallies has been 147 days. Even the longest rallies of 196 days would reach May 2025.
Looking at my time cycles, we also have a hit around March 2025.
The USDT dominance chart is currently in a bear flag. A mirror move similar to September 2023 to March 2024 would bring dominance levels down to the November 2021 cycle top, around April 2025.
**September 2025 - Possible Top**
For those who don’t know, Bitcoin’s last two cycles took exactly the same time from cycle low to top, 1064 days. If we overlay 1064 days from this cycle's low, it puts the cycle top in early October 2025, which is very close to my Fibonacci time date in September 2025.
I know there’s a lot on this chart to digest, but just focus on the red and yellow circles. Do you see the pattern? Every other sine wave peak is a cycle top. The next sine wave peak falls between September and December 2025.
The Chainlink fractal from last year is still playing out. If it continues, the top is projected for August 11, 2025, again very close to that September 2025 date.
KDA is also an interesting chart for me because it’s mirroring the last cycle closely, which again puts the cycle top in September 2025.
**Conclusion**
USDT dominance is in a bear flag, which is a clue. I’ve been in this position many times before, and USDT dominance has often signaled the way. If this bear flag follows through, it will trigger the first wave of the bull run.
**So, March/April 2025 Cycle Top:**
- 147-day average Bitcoin rallies
- USDT dominance chart mirror move
- A time cycle hit
**September 2025 Cycle Top:**
- Chainlink fractal
- KDA fractal
- Sine line peaks
- 1064 days from cycle low to top
If it’s March/April 2025 and we get a PI cycle cross, we’re out, that’s for sure , we most definitely not taking that chance that "this time its different"
Euphoria Blindness
BULL MARKET### USDT Dominance (USDT.D) Short-Term Trading Analysis and Bull Market Correlation
#### **1. Chart Pattern and Candlestick**
On the **USDT.D** chart, we can observe a **rising wedge** or **ascending channel** pattern, which indicates a potential downside breakout. This pattern often leads to a bearish move, implying that if USDT dominance decreases, more liquidity is expected to flow into risk assets like altcoins and Bitcoin, signaling a potential **bull market**.
In terms of **candlestick analysis**, the last few candles have shown weak upward momentum, suggesting that while there is still some bullish sentiment in USDT.D, it is weakening.
#### **2. Fibonacci Retracement**
Key levels from the Fibonacci retracement include:
- **61.8%** at around 5.96% — currently acting as a resistance.
- **38.2%** at 7.30% — this level was a prior strong resistance.
- A breakdown below 61.8% would likely lead to a test of the **100% level** at 3.78%, a significant long-term support.
If USDT.D fails to break above the 61.8% level, it suggests a possible reversal. A drop in USDT.D usually correlates with a **bullish run** in the broader cryptocurrency market.
#### **3. MACD and Stochastic RSI Indicators**
- **MACD**: The MACD histogram shows weakening momentum, and there's a possibility of a **bearish crossover**, which would confirm a bearish outlook for USDT dominance.
- **Stochastic RSI**: With Stochastic RSI hovering at **overbought** levels (81.99), a reversal downward seems likely. This could further push USDT.D down, boosting risk appetite for cryptocurrencies.
#### **4. Divergence**
Currently, there’s no significant **divergence** between the price movement and the momentum indicators, but the overbought signals from Stochastic RSI suggest that a short-term reversal is likely.
#### **5. Market Probability and Economic Catalysts**
- **Short-Term Outlook**: The combination of a bearish **rising wedge** pattern, overbought **Stochastic RSI**, and a potential MACD cross suggests a high probability of a short-term correction in USDT dominance, which could ignite a **bull market**.
#### **Bull Market Correlation**
A decrease in USDT dominance indicates that investors are moving capital out of stablecoins (such as USDT) and into higher-risk assets like altcoins and Bitcoin. This shift in liquidity is often a precursor to the start of a **bull market** in the cryptocurrency space.
#### **Macro-Economic Catalysts**
- **Global Market Sentiment**: If inflation decreases and central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, adopt a dovish stance (pausing or reducing interest rate hikes), it can bolster investor confidence and increase liquidity flows into cryptocurrencies.
- **Monetary Policy**: A less aggressive Fed would likely reduce the demand for safe-haven assets like USDT and boost demand for riskier assets like Bitcoin and altcoins.
- **Geopolitical Uncertainty**: In times of reduced global uncertainty, investors tend to shift from stable assets like USDT to riskier assets, further reducing USDT dominance.
In summary, technical indicators point toward a potential drop in USDT dominance, which historically correlates with a crypto bull market. Additionally, macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy shifts will play a significant role in shaping this trend.
Bitcoin Weekly Analysis: Potential LONG ! (READ THE CAPTION)By reviewing the #Bitcoin chart on the weekly timeframe, we can see that the price is currently trading around the $59,500 level. The key level to watch tonight is whether Bitcoin can hold above $58,700. In my opinion, Bitcoin is likely to soon rally towards $63,400. However, once it reaches this level, we might see a negative reaction. After observing this reaction, we can better assess Bitcoin's next potential move.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
((2+4+7+13+15+18+26+36+38+69+87+101+183+209+1000+1002+1000000000+1000000001+ 1000000853)^♾️*69) + 1 !
Bearish reversal?Ethereum (ETH/USD) is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support which has been identified as an overlap support.
Pivot: 2,807.45
1st Support: 2,538.15
1st Resistance: 3,086.37
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GMX coin look good to go up/ in this month 3 trades 3 win 100%GMX coin look good to go up
entry 24.950
SL 24.370
Mirroring KDA: Why CULT DAO Could Skyrocket 100xToday I will present my thesis on how it is possible for CULT to move over x100 from its current price.
This all started by mistaking the KDA chart for a CULT chart.
What you see above is very interesting; CULT has mirrored KDA in pretty much every way.
So the thesis is the following:
If CULT is mirroring KDA and KDA is mirroring its first cycle, then that means CULT, in theory, could move x100 from where we are right now.
The first wave of KDA took nearly the same amount of time: 168 days compared to 147 days.
I believe right now we just completed the second wave. It took KDA 140 days to bottom in the last cycle. So far, it's been 140 days, and it seems to have a very high chance of being a major bottom. So again, the same amount of time, most likely.
The top of the 4.236 Fib extension would technically take CULT to $0.00026607 (143.82x), which would be around a 1.3 billion dollar market cap.
Bitcoin cycles take 1064 days to complete. If the cycle repeats, that means we either have a top in May 2025 or September 2025, depending on what you mark as a cycle low.
Which again, May 2025 fits with this fractal perfectly, and when you overlay the KDA fractal onto the CULT chart, what you see is something pretty amazing.
A rally till the end of the year with an 80% correction down to this very strong confluence point in late February/March 2025.
With the final run being from March 2025 to May 2025.
Another interesting chart I'm looking at is CULT/VIX. You can see that the February 2023 and March 2024 highs hit the same point in this chart.
Taking a look at this chart, we can also see a pattern emerge that showed us the start of the altcoin run.
(Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding Top 10 Dominance, %)
**Conclusion**
If this thesis proves correct, I've just handed you a 100x opportunity, published months in advance—a historical record of what might seem impossible but could soon become reality.
Just like predicting this huge crash before it happened.
Chainlink Business As Usual It might seem like a shock for most that Chainlink had this big move down, but if you have spent a lot of time studying Chainlink's last cycle, you would know that this is business as usual.
The fact that Chainlink had this move has made me more bullish than ever. We are currently 64% down from March 2024. Crazy? I think not.
71%
71%
62%
44%
These are all the corrections Chainlink had during its last cycle to its all-time high.
All we are doing is a back test to this previous range. Chainlink was doing the same thing last cycle.
If we overlay the last cycle over this starting from wave 5, we can see that we have had a crash during the same time of the cycle as we did in March 2020 (Covid). Crazy.
I would not be surprised if Chainlink closed above $11 by the end of the week, just above the 1:1 Gann Fan, and started a V-shaped recovery, marking the bottom. There is a very high chance.
Once again, my time fibs hit right on the money. The blue fib marked the bottom, and the yellow marked the top!
**Next date: 18th Nov 2024**
Chainlink Business As Usual It might seem like a shock for most that Chainlink had this big move down, but if you have spent a lot of time studying Chainlink's last cycle, you would know that this is business as usual.
The fact that Chainlink had this move has made me more bullish than ever. We are currently 64% down from March 2024. Crazy? I think not.
71%
71%
62%
44%
These are all the corrections Chainlink had during its last cycle to its all-time high.
All we are doing is a back test to this previous range. Chainlink was doing the same thing last cycle.
If we overlay the last cycle over this starting from wave 5, we can see that we have had a crash during the same time of the cycle as we did in March 2020 (Covid). Crazy.
I would not be surprised if Chainlink closed above $11 by the end of the week, just above the 1:1 Gann Fan, and started a V-shaped recovery, marking the bottom. There is a very high chance.
Once again, my time fibs hit right on the money. The blue fib marked the bottom, and the yellow marked the top!
**Next date: 18th Nov 2024**
Black Swan Incoming (Part 1)This is the start of a series I will be publishing for the rest of the year. I will focus 100% on trying to do the impossible and predict a narrow timeframe of a potential black swan event.
**The series will end and this theory will be invalidated if we break and close a weekly above the previous weekly high at 75k.**
**Fear and Greed Index (alternative.me)**
As you can see, we only have data from 2018. Nevertheless, we have data on the last bull market and rallies since then. As we can see, the index will print lower highs before rallies and bull markets.
**What we have now is a break of a multi-year uptrend on the index and currently putting in a lower low, which is not a good sign at all.**
**2Week MACD BEARISH CROSS**
The MACD has crossed bearish on the 2W timeframe five times. One out of the five times, it was a false signal, and that was the crash in May 2021 down to 30k. The rest of the time, when this signal fires off, Bitcoin from that candle close on average moves down 63%.
TOPPING DISTRIBUTION FRACTAL APPEARS
I have covered this fractal many times on my channel; you can probably find more than ten publications just on this fractal.
Why are we seeing a double-top distribution fractal again play out at the top of rallies? How many times are they going to use it? These three occasions, you can see they all happened with very similar timing from peak to peak and the first wave down.
Volume Block and Bayesian Trend
The Bayesian Trend is currently giving a 41% probability of a move higher from this point. As I'm writing this, Bitcoin has just hit the 0.618, which happens to be the level with a dominant sell order block. It's a classic move, guys: double-topping pattern into a 0.618 retracement rollover, nothing new.
Crash Zone Explained
Here is why I think "if" a black swan happens, this is the timeframe where it's most likely to happen. We have US elections, the first possible rate cut, and the start of my Fib time.
As you can see, this Fib sequence predicted the last black swan event, which was the Covid Crash. It is a very powerful sequence for predicting Bitcoin macro pivot points a year. Last year, unfortunately, was the first time it failed. Nevertheless, I still keep an eye out during these periods.
Fed cuts are not bullish, especially after long pauses above 5%. Last time we had rates at 2% when we started cutting, a multi-month downtrend began which led to the Covid crash.
NAS100 above.
**BTCBTC: Spent Volume Lifespan 7y-10y**
The total transfer volume of coins that were last active between 7y and 10y ago.
Always a useful tool to see what the big boys are doing and what we see is something pretty shocking.
Big volume in these wallets can be connected to major pivot points for Bitcoin in the past. So the largest volume output recorded before 2024 was 1600 BTC.
In 2024...............
It's the same chart, just included 2024. The output volume in June 2024 was 13,900 Bitcoin. I double-checked it; it's the reason now all the other pivot points look like a small blip on the chart.
Insane, 13,900 Bitcoin moved at an all-time high, and then we get a big move down. I guess this metric still works perfectly at finding tops.
**Crash Targets**
As you can see, we have two main diagonal supports to look at. Honestly, I do not trust any diagonal supports, but the yellow macro one has three cycle low hits, so it holds a lot of weight.
The second one, which is the orange dotted line, has two hits and will most likely fail. In my experience, when we have a very clear diagonal support and it comes down for its third touch, it breaks because everyone is looking at the same thing. It's that simple: the entire space is looking at it, so therefore it breaks and everyone gets rekt.
The golden pocket sits at 35-37k and at the macro yellow support. This is where I would say the bottom is most likely in.
If the black swan plays out all the way, we would most likely see the CME gap at 21k close. This would most likely be a hammer candle that would last seconds.
**Invalidation**
If Bitcoin were to break the previous swing high at 74k and close a weekly above it, this entire TA would be invalidated. Even if it closed above 0.618 at 67k, the chance of invalidation would increase dramatically.
XRP moonshot?Since April 2021 XRP has been banging on the 2/1 Gann failing time and time again.
In the last three years we hit the 2/1 Gann 5 times and failed to break it , this monthly candle is extremely bullish and we have reached the apex of this Gann triangle, the chances are we break to the upside.
Since March 2020 we have been printing lower highs on the monthly without fail.
Stoch RSI monthly buy.
Bar pattern fractal from 2015 repeating.
Very high chance here XRP breaks 2/1 this time round , there is a lot of momentum.
CULT DAO x5-x10?Cult Dao confirmed buy signal on the stoch RSI weekly last night , longing this signal last few years as resulted in fairly large moves , we did get a false signal July 2023 but high chance we have another run at the moment.
What is interesting is that alot of charts putting in the same lower higher structure.
COIN: Support and resistanceMay be we all should get ready for the next bull run in 2024 and 2025.
When BTC goes above 40k, the stocks related to crypto will just go crazy.
This chart is just a representation on where to take profit and where to buy.
I guess COIN might hit the ATH by mid of 2025.
First crypto second capitulation then create a base and then halving and then enters bull run.
Hope COIN will not get into controversy or bankruptcy and make future millionaires.
See you in 2024 and 2025.
Cheers
Bitcoin Outlook 2024It's been a while since I posted something on TradingView, mostly because there has been nothing going on for months now. However, I believe we are coming into a major pivot point for Bitcoin.
In the past, when Bitcoin consolidates at previous all-time highs, it's a strong sign that we are entering a Bitcoin bull market. But this time, it seems, at least for now, that the tide has turned to the downside.
The main chart above shows the most important macro trendline to follow right now, with multi-year support and two major cycle lows put in on this trendline.
If we take a look at my lay lines and Fib time zones, you can see why I think the 2024 outlook is going to be more downside. A new time cycle will start sometime around December 2024, which matches with the lay lines also.
A very important Time Fib, which I have been using for years, starts this month.
As you can see, it is powerful at predicting pivot points. Unfortunately, last year it failed for the first time in predicting anything, so let's see what happens this month.
As you can see from the model, Bitcoin has failed to close above the last band. This last band shows the last phases of Bitcoin cycles.
MACD BEARISH CROSS 2W
The MACD has crossed bearish on the 2W timeframe five times. One out of the five times it was a false signal, and that was the crash in May 2021 down to 30k. The rest of the time, when this signal fires off, Bitcoin from that candle close on average moves down 63%.
It is important to note that even though we have crossed bearish on the MACD, we need to wait for it to confirm in 10 days as of this post, which would be the close of this current 2W candle.
STOCHASTIC RSI
We have officially gotten a sell signal on the monthly. Two moving averages have closed under the 80 level. In 2021, this again was a false signal; we rallied for months while moving averages kept moving down.
Mayer Multiple Band
Completely broken down from the yellow band. The next band is at 43k.
My indicators
This shot is showing Heikin Candles. As you can see, it's pretty good at calling tops , its not perfect , but considering this is a real-time signal, it is very powerful. This signal will confirm in 27 days, though.
Same shot but using Japanese candles. As you can see, we have two sell signals up here on a monthly timeframe. As soon as I saw the second one, I knew already that the outcome was most likely down.
CME GAP STILL OPEN
Let's not forget that the CME GAP at 20k is still open. That is a 60% drawdown from where we are now, which would take us down to 20k where the CME GAP is, which is in line with the 2W candle MACD bearish cross average drop.
Conclusion
There are so many sell signals right now, and these sell signals are on monthly and 2-week timeframes. We are talking about huge momentum here.
My view is we go down for the rest of the year until December 2024, when rate cuts come in and the bull market starts until September 2025. After that, blood.
Anything is possible. A black swan event would take it down to close the CME GAP most likely. Remember, anyone who was here in March 2020, we dropped 63% in about 20 days.
