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Crisis

The Climax of the Crisis Era - Joe Biden is no ObamaEarlier this year, when Biden won the nomination. I was pretty sure he had a good shot at taking the win. Let's face it, we're living in the climax of a Crisis Generation*, and bizarre things always happen during times like these. According to the Strauss-Howe Theory, the eponymous name elaborated by the two in the 1997 book, The Fourth Turning , there are historical cycles we are apart of that generally last 80 years. 4 generations make up these cycles, they call saeculums, that last 20-ish years. Right now, we are in a crisis generation that normally brings about the end to a previous culture/way of life for a new one, or evolves into a new one. So when you look at points I've brought up in my previous ideas, you can see how America, and the rest of the world (but for my sake, America), are in a turning point era where what was previously considered zany and unlikely becomes the new flavor of the week/month/year. This is the main crux to the argument for Trump losing to Biden, much how in the last crisis generation 1930s/1940s, Herbert Hoover lost to the somewhat controversial and not-so popular Franklin Roosevelt, because of Hoover's placement in time. en.wikipedia.org Strauss-Howe Theory Hoover's presidency was marred by the development of a depression that has now been considered to be caused, or at least prolonged, by him. Really, he just used the same get-out-of-jail-free card that every president has used since in economic turmoil - bailouts, keeping wages high, and running the money printing presses. The same failure economic policies he implemented were copied by Franklin Roosevelt, but on steroids, and helped keep the US in a depression until the end of WWII. We might think the war prolonged the depression, which obviously had an effect, but when you look at the big picture, many Americans had already been long-suffering before we jumped in for the last 3 1/2 years to clean up the mess the world had started (not to underestimate the Europeans who fought hard, Africans who were thrown into a war they shouldn't have been apart of, and Chinese who were raped and pillaged by wannabe-Samurai Warriors) Many "journalists" have compared Trump to Hoover because of Hoover's whole conservative stance on immigration and his friendliness towards tariffs. That's all well and good, until you look at the fact Trump has developed such a strong base of supporters. The once-trusted media who brought us unrestrained, generally unbiased facts about these elections are now, and let's be real, very biased, and have all their financial interests pinned to a Biden presidency. If one can look at how manufactured, and divisive the media has been, then one can start to understand the importance of anecdotal evidence. Nowadays, with how our echo (masochistic self-torture) chambers, there's no way to get the real stiffy on where the public is at on issues, other than our genuine personal experience. For me, I have had the blessing to analyze one of the most important states in the Union, culturally and economically, a state that has both strong supporters for both sides, and it has helped me form a sturdy grasp on what the average joe six-pack thinks about the world we are in. Aside from Biden's terrible rally turnouts, how far and few between they are, how his platform, if he has one at all, has become about distancing himself from the only strong Democratic Party supporters, socialists, and not to mention his endless old fart gaffs, I have seen an interesting change in how American culture has changed in my relatively short lifespan. The same vim and love for Obama that was media-sponsored and publicly adorned - a seemingly strong, young man with a glimmer in his eyes and nothing but optimism for the future, that was made into a grey, blob of a 2-term presidency that has all-but been forgotten for how uneventful and corporatized it was, is not what we have for either Trump nor Biden. When I was a little kid and I had family friends and teachers who were once-Republican voters instead voting for Obama, it revealed at least some kind of unification among Americans for an idea. Albeit, a very general, unenlightened idea that at best was about free stuff for special interest groups. There was a media/public in-tandem love for Obama that couldn't be hindered by what was seen as a corporation-loving, out-of-touch evangelical sect of conservatives that ran the country, media, and public thought. Though, nowadays, the tables have turned for everyone. Young liberals are disenchanted with the Democratic Party and yearn for some socialist revolution. Nobody except democrat boomers and detached, high-falutin' progressives are blind enough to worship the TV and fake news that was once so potent in the American lifestyle. With Trump's sobering 2016 victory came a new experience to the American meta - The Shy Tory Factor, or what I'll call the Silent Majority Effect. en.wikipedia.org With important, working class states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Ohio all going for Trump in 2016, it brought a stark reminder of a huge amount of people in this country who have felt long-forgotten as their once-enriched states that saw the American Experience at its height in much of the 20th century, fall to job outsourcing, socialist embankment in their local governments, crime spikes, and loss of buying power. These people looked to Trump as their only way out. He brought that vim and vigor that Obama brought in 2008, but with a real message - a message that America still had strength, could still rise above its crumbling infrastructure, and could be the last bastion at odds with neoliberal Europeans, dangerous terrorist-supporting OPEC countries, and a communist Chinese empire. He wanted to Make America Great Again. And when you watch his speeches and his debates from that campaign trail, which is something I have done ritually every year since, you see how he spoke truth to power. He went after how the Fed manipulated currency, how China had to "pay up", and how the US had been cheated for decades. While you might disagree, and I definitely do disagree with how he blamed foreign nations for stealing our buying power, when really we've been doing it to ourselves by selling off our entire infrastructure for lives of relative luxury, the idea was still strong. He harkened back to a time the US had real strength and optimism for the future. The Silent Majority went for him. They were pissed off, and wanted a change, but unfortunately, I will say, Trump has been just as much of a spender and clamorer for MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) as much as any other president would have, but that is unimportant to what is still so effervescent about his message, and how he has continued to do everything right in his 2020 campaign. His first term hasn't left anyone who voted for him unconvinced of his power. They are even stronger in supporting him. When I travel across my state, all I see are vivacious supporters building beautiful messages of prayer and support for Trump, hundreds of miles of Trump flags, signs, and posters, big F250s with Trump and American flags on the back. www.youtube.com It has become very clear that Trump is a strong speaker and even at his ripe old age, can still battle with the same passion. Alternatively, the Biden campaign has had a lack of rallies, terrible turnout, a platform that is unclear what it really wants aside from being anti-Trump and rhetorically anti-Socialist. This clear disparity between the abilities of both candidates, and the strength of both groups of supporters, is a testament to why Trump will win this election. Biden could've won if he took a firm position, and had the same vim Trump did, and spoke to the socialist aura of his supporters, but instead, Biden will get the same treatment Hillary did - a shallow, "grr we hate racist, but I wanna stay home and watch True Blood so wtvr" support from most liberals, and a last-time at seeming like relevant heroes who totally didn't ruin the country for the past 60 years Boomers. But in Crisis eras, we just have to wait and see. But as I said, the anecdotes matter, not so much whatever the media is throwing out. Biden is no Hillary, and Hillary was certainly no Obama. The support has waned, and we haven't seen a strong Democratic candidate since Bill Clinton, who let's be real, was able to win the South a lot easier because of his southern drawl. Al Gore, John Kerry, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Hillary Clinton, and Joe Biden all have one thing in common - they are uninspiring, forgettable, platform-lacking candidates who have all-but become jokes. John McCain was probably the best out of all of the, but again, could not fight against the strong meme of the handsome, optimistic Obama. Biden will be remembered, along with the other losers, as a weirdo pedo who could barely talk for 20 minutes, couldn't garner any support, and only had the opportunity to fight Trump because Pocahontas and gang dropped out to let loser Biden take their delegates (I wonder what that meeting was like). Imagine if in 2016, the Republicans had forced everyone out to let Jeb Bush win - we woulda been living under a fascist Hillary dystopia right now. Trump will win, and while I'm no fan of either side, I have seen where the American consciousness is at. The Democrats have an inability to get a likeable, truth-speaking candidate out there, even if his/her truth is marred with inconsistencies and nonsense hopes and dreams. "As we must account for every idle word, so we must account for every idle silence ." - Benjamin Franklin
BShort
by MoneybagsMcGee
Presidential Elections, Crisis & Stock MarketsPresidential Election Crisis & Crisis of Confidence The next big macroeconomic event to happen is the US Presidential Election, and that got me thinking, "what happened in previous elections?" The last two major crashes, the DOTCOM Crash 2000-2004 and the Financial Crisis 2007-2009, both occurred during a presidential election. The DOTCOM crash was underway for eight weeks when George W. Bush took over the presidency. The ensuing carnage wiped out four years of gains . This equated to a 41.64% drop during George Ws' first three years. The Financial Crisis was already well underway when Obama took over in November 2008. The total crash wiped out 52% of the value of the S&P500, 24% of that loss occurred under Obama's reign . In total, the Financial Crisis wiped out 8 years of gains . The Corona Crash started during the last seven months of Trump's term and is ready to be inherited by Biden or continued to be managed by Trump, depending on the outcome of the election. Crisis of Confidence. Crashes and crises happen when confidence in a market is lost. Confidence is the difference between a functioning market and an economic disaster. Trump and the Federal Reserve have amazingly restored confidence in this market, despite the disastrous ongoing economic events. Presidents Crisis & Confidence The next election will be set in the middle of a crisis, a crisis that has not played out its full course. The questions you have to ask yourself when betting on the market coming up to November are: Which President, if any, will maintain the confidence in this current bubble market? Which President, if any, can maintain the confidence in this market long enough so that the Fed can gently deflate the bubble over time? The question is not what you think the answer is, the question is, "What do you think the market participants believe?" Confidence Tricks If the next President and the Fed cannot perpetuate these confidence tricks, we might expect 4 or 8 years of market gains to be wiped out. Summary This is not a political commentary or a prediction; it is observations based on the market's action during elections and crises. Outlook: While this rally has been great and profitable for many, the coincidence of All-time Market Highs, Economic Carnage, and the Current Market Euphoria, suggest to me a Bubble Waiting To Burst. Outlook at this time - Neutral, in November Short.
SP:SPX
by liberatedstocktrader
149
RidetheMacro| US-10 Year Treasury Yield | 40 years Outlook📌 Treasury yields move higher ahead of Fed speeches. U.S. government debt prices fell on Friday morning as investors monitored rising cases of coronavirus and polls ahead of the U.S. election. the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose above 📈 1% to trade at 0.6904%. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond increased 📈 by about 78 basis points to trade at 1.4375%. Yields move inversely to prices. US-10 Year Treasury Yield - 40 Years in Review 📍 Many of still remember the collapse of the U.S. housing market in 2006 and the ensuing financial crisis that wreaked havoc on the U.S. and around the world. Financial crises are, unfortunately, quite common in history and often cause economic tsunamis in affected economies. ⬇️ Below I explain some Major Financial Crisis. 📍 1981 Volcker Fund Rate Increase Paul Volcker was Chair of the Federal Reserve from 1979 to 1987. In 1980, the Volcker Shock raised the fed funds rate to its highest point in history to end double-digit inflation. That extreme and prolonged interest rate rise was called the Volcker Shock. It did end inflation 📍 The Credit Crisis of 1772 This crisis originated in London and quickly spread to the rest of Europe. In the mid-1760s the British 🇬🇧 Empire had accumulated an enormous amount of wealth through its colonial possessions and trade. This created an aura of over optimism and a period of rapid credit expansion by many British banks 🏦. The hype came to an abrupt end on June 8, 1772, when Alexander Fordyce—one of the partners of the British banking house Neal, James, Fordyce, and Down—fled to France to escape his debt repayments. The news quickly spread and triggered a banking panic in England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿, as creditors began to form long lines in front of British banks to demand instant cash withdrawals. The ensuing crisis rapidly spread to Scotland, the Netherlands, other parts of Europe, and the British 🇬🇧 American colonies. Historians have claimed that the economic repercussions of this crisis were one of the major contributing factors to the Boston Tea Party protests and the American Revolution. 📍 The Great Depression of 1929–39 This was the worst financial and economic disaster of the 20th century. Many believe that the Great Depression was triggered by the Wall Street crash of 1929 and later exacerbated by the poor policy decisions of the U.S. government 🇺🇸. The Depression lasted almost 10 years and resulted in massive loss of income, record unemployment rates, and output loss, especially in industrialized nations. In the United States the unemployment rate hit almost 25 percent at the peak of the crisis in 1933. 📍 The OPEC Oil Price Shock of 1973 This crisis began when OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) member countries—primarily consisting of Arab nations—decided to retaliate against the United States in response to its sending arms supplies to Israel during the Fourth Arab–Israeli War. OPEC countries declared an oil embargo, abruptly halting oil exports to the United States and its allies. This caused major oil shortages and a severe spike in oil prices and led to an economic crisis in the U.S 🇺🇸. and many other developed countries. What was unique about the ensuing crisis was the simultaneous occurrence of very high inflation (triggered by the spike in energy prices) and economic stagnation (due to the economic crisis). As a result, economists named the era a period of “stagflation” (stagnation plus inflation), and it took several years for output to recover and inflation to fall to its pre crisis levels. 📍 The Asian Crisis of 1997 This crisis originated in Thailand in 1997 and quickly spread to the rest of East Asia and its trading partners. Speculative capital flows from developed countries to the East Asian economies of Thailand 🇹🇭, Indonesia 🇮🇩, Malaysia 🇲🇾, Singapore 🇸🇬, Hong Kong 🇭🇰, and South Korea 🇰🇷 (known then as the “Asian tigers”) had triggered an era of optimism that resulted in an overextension of credit and too much debt accumulation in those economies. In July 1997 the Thai government had to abandon its fixed exchange rate against the U.S. dollar 💲 that it had maintained for so long, citing a lack of foreign currency resources. That started a wave of panic across Asian financial markets and quickly led to the widespread reversal of billions of dollars of foreign investment. As the panic unfurled in the markets and investors grew wary of possible bankruptcies of East Asian governments, fears of a worldwide financial meltdown began to spread. It took years for things to return to normal. The International Monetary Fund had to step in to create bailout packages for the most-affected economies to help those countries avoid default. 📍 The dotcom bubble The dotcom bubble, also known as the internet bubble, was a rapid rise in U.S. technology stock equity valuations fueled by investments in internet-based companies during the bull market in the late 1990s. During the dotcom bubble, the value of equity markets grew exponentially, with the technology-dominated Nasdaq index rising from under 1,000 to more than 5,000 between the years 1995 and 2000. In 2001 and through 2002 the bubble burst, with equities entering a bear market. The crash that followed saw the Nasdaq index, which had risen five-fold between 1995 and 2000, tumble from a peak of 5,048.62 on March 10, 2000, to 1,139.90 on Oct 4, 2002, a 76.81% fall. By the end of 2001, most dotcom stocks had gone bust. Even the share prices of blue-chip technology stocks like Cisco, Intel and Oracle lost more than 80% of their value. It would take 15 years for the Nasdaq to regain its dotcom peak, which it did on April 23, 2015. 📍 The Financial Crisis of 2007–08 This sparked the Great Recession, the most-severe financial crisis since the Great Depression, and it wreaked havoc in financial markets around the world. Triggered by the collapse of the housing bubble in the U.S., the crisis resulted in the collapse of Lehman Brothers (one of the biggest investment banks 🏦in the world), brought many key financial institutions and businesses to the brink of collapse, and required government bailouts of unprecedented proportions. It took almost a decade for things to return to normal, wiping away millions of jobs and billions of dollars of income along the way.
TVC:US10YLong
by Ridethemacro
2
POLITICAL HELP? VOLUME COULDN'T HELP! - NAS - DAILYDespite the huge volumes, we have observed forces pushing the market down. Here the technical analysis is just a confirmation of what obviously happen in the real world, no bias. The market has responded to the volumes multiple pushes with clear candle sticks announcing that the probability to see the price going down is very high and won't stop yet. The positive side, is that if there is any political action to save the company, then, we could see the market first trying to fill the past gape and run very quickly, thereafter, to the range that it has left at the beginning of the year, around the end of February. For the moment, it looks like a probable worse case scenario...wind up, bankruptcy...or other. September will be a very important month in Europe as all holidays end and political decisions might be taken in regard of the extension of restrictions or their ease.
OSL:NASShort
by Diallo_Charts_Ideas
4
100 YEARS OF GLOBAL CRISES, PANDEMIA, RECESSION and DEPRESSIONHere is the modern 100 years history of Human Being. Starting from WW1-Depression-WW2-ColdWar-DotComBubble-FinancialCrisis-COVID Will the history repeats again with Crash and Recovery? On chart I pointed with 1&2 phases of history is from 1915 to 2001 and from 2001 to current. Chart as image: 1. The Great Depression, World War II, Cold War, Dot Com Bubble The Great Depression began in the United States after a significant drop in stock prices, which began around September 4, 1929, and became world news after the stock market crash on October 29, 1929 (known as Black Tuesday). Between 1929 and 1932, global gross domestic product (GDP) declined by about 15%. In comparison, global GDP fell by less than 1% from 2008 to 2009 during the Financial Crisis. Some economies began to recover by the mid-30s. However, in many countries, the negative effects of the Great Depression continued until the outbreak of World War II. The Great Depression had devastating consequences in both rich and poor countries. Personal income, tax revenue, profits and prices fell, and international trade fell by more than 50%. Unemployment in the United States rose to 23%, and in some countries rose to 33%. Cities around the world have been hit hard, especially those that depend on heavy industry. Construction was virtually halted in many countries. Agricultural communities and rural areas suffered as crop prices fell by about 60%. Faced with a sharp drop in demand with several alternative sources of jobs, the most affected areas are those dependent on primary sector industries such as mining and logging. What stocks survived the Great Depression? Electric Boat Company gained +55,000% from 1932 to 1954, topping this interesting list of the top-10 performing Great Depression Stocks. Electric Boat (Defense; +55,000% Return) ... Truax Traer Coal (Coal; +30,503%) ... Spicer Manufacturing (Auto; +26,221%) ... Zenith Radio (Radios, Televisions; +24,146%) World War II , also called Second World War, conflict that involved virtually every part of the world during the years 1939–45. The principal belligerents were the Axis powers—Germany, Italy, and Japan—and the Allies—France, Great Britain, the United States, the Soviet Union, and, to a lesser extent, China. The war was in many respects a continuation, after an uneasy 20-year hiatus, of the disputes left unsettled by World War I. The 40,000,000–50,000,000 deaths incurred in World War II make it the bloodiest conflict, as well as the largest war, in history. Cold War , the open yet restricted rivalry that developed after World War II between the United States and the Soviet Union and their respective allies. The Cold War was waged on political, economic, and propaganda fronts and had only limited recourse to weapons. The result in 1989 was a wave of revolutions that (with the exception of Romania) peacefully overthrew all of the communist governments of Central and Eastern Europe. The Communist Party of the Soviet Union itself lost control in the Soviet Union and was banned following an abortive coup attempt in August 1991. The dot-com bubble (also known as the dot-com boom, the tech bubble, and the Internet bubble) was a stock market bubble caused by excessive speculation in Internet-related companies in the late 1990s, a period of massive growth in the use and adoption of the Internet. There are various ways to measure the amount of wealth that was annihilated when the bubble burst. As early as November 2000, CNNFN pegged the losses at $1.7 trillion What companies survived the dot com bubble? Here are some companies which survived the dot-com bubble. Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) +45000% Return since 2001 eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) +1700% return Apple (NASDAQ: APPL) +36000% return 2. The Financial Crisis of 2007–08, COVID-19 recession, the Great Shutdown Financial crisis of 2007–08 , also called subprime mortgage crisis, severe contraction of liquidity in global financial markets that originated in the United States as a result of the collapse of the U.S. housing market. It threatened to destroy the international financial system; caused the failure (or near-failure) of several major investment and commercial banks, mortgage lenders, insurance companies, and savings and loan associations; and precipitated the Great Recession (2007–09), the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression (1929–c. 1939). The U.S. government then came out with National Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, which created a corpus of $700 billion to purchase distressed assets, especially mortgage-backed securities. Different governments came out with their versions of bailout packages, government guarantees and outright nationalization. The financial crisis of 2007-08 has taught us that the confidence of the financial market, once shattered, can't be quickly restored. In an interconnected world, a seeming liquidity crisis can very quickly turn into a solvency crisis for financial institutions, a balance of payment crisis for sovereign countries and a full-blown crisis of confidence for the entire world. But the silver lining is that, after every crisis in the past, markets have come out strong to forge new beginnings with some kind of turnaround. A small selection of investors even profited from the crisis. The coronavirus recession, also known as the COVID-19 recession, the Great Shutdown, or the Great Lockdown , is a major global recession which arose as an economic consequence of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The first major sign of the coronavirus recession was the 2020 stock market crash on 20 February, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported on 14 April that all of the G7 nations had already entered or were entering into a "deep recession" and that there had already been a significant slowdown of growth in emerging economies. IMF projections suggest that the coronavirus recession will be the most severe global economic downturn since the Great Depression, and that it will be "far worse" than the Great Recession of 2009. The pandemic has led to more than a third of the world's population being placed on lockdown to stop the spread of COVID-19. It has caused severe repercussions for economies across the world, following soon after a global economic slowdown during 2019 that saw stagnation of stock markets and consumer activity worldwide. This recession has seen unusually high and rapid increases in unemployment in many countries, and the inability in the United States for state-funded unemployment insurance computer systems and processes to keep up with applications. The United Nations (UN) predicted in April 2020 that global unemployment will wipe out 6.7 per cent of working hours globally in the second quarter of 2020—equivalent to 195 million full-time workers. In western nations, unemployment is expected to be at around 10%, with more severely affected nations from the COVID-19 pandemic having higher unemployment rates. The developing world is also being affected by a drop in remittances. The recession saw a drop in the price of oil triggered by the 2020 Russia–Saudi Arabia oil price war, the collapse of tourism, the hospitality industry, the energy industry and a significant downturn in consumer activity in comparison to the previous decade. Global stock markets crashed around 20 to 30% during late February and March 2020, respectively. During the crash, global stock markets made unprecedented and volatile swings, mainly due to extreme uncertainty in the markets. 👉 So many people claiming for next crisis/recession and global shit to happen, but: 👉 General question, are you really want this to happen? Stay profitable this is Artem Crypto
TVC:DJI
by ArShevelev
15
LATE IMPACT OF CRISIS ON LUXURY GIANT - HERMES - RMS - 30MNThe large uptrend line can be duplicated to see all other parallel levels where the market have found support/resistance. The price have then been ranging horizontally, after having broken this large uptrend line. Now it is time to consider the probability of seeing the market price fall a bit. The break of the lower part of the rectangles will validate that probability. In the other side, two natural upper resistance formed by the top of the two squares. Probability of pullback down from those points. Any break of the square up or down will be a nice entry point. Time to take profits for investor to reduce exposition and come back stronger after the probable share price fall.
EURONEXT:RMSShort
by Diallo_Charts_Ideas
Is There Something Going On Here? And Some Deeper Thoughts The Dow First thing I'm noticing is the red line seems to be the support on three occasions, with three distinct periods from 2018 where the DOW dropped to the red line and recovered. 2020 Corona crash has had a somewhat perplexing recovery, which to me defies absolutely all and any logic! It's absurd the DOW has rallied like it has given the economic horror story that's unfolding and mass unemployment, none of it remotely makes any sense. The absurdity of the recent gains on the questionable unverified results from Gilead shows that unless you're worth at least 8 figures, have wealthy connected family or friends then you shouldn't put your money in the markets at this point. ----------------- Personal Thoughts & Musings Is it setting up for another far steeper drop ? The logical brain of mine thinks that nothing lasts forever and infinite unending economic growth is impossible. In history and in nature, nothing lasts forever! The question is how long does this go on for ? I think we are teetering on the edge of the end of the "20th century / American" era and truly the beginning of the 21st century era, much of the way things were will slowly come to an end in another 30-50 years memories of the 20th will be like the think of the 18-19th centuries today. The defining moment that people will say the 20th century truly died is when Queen Elizabeth II passes in the near future.
TVC:DJIShort
by th3gr3k0sLaV
Mortgage choice(MOC:ASX) LongMortage choice Entry - 0.735 Exit- 0.925 Government stimulus favouring the property market in Australia. Overall optimistic sentiment due to better crisis control. RSI in mid-range but relatively overbought Classic Dow theory: Trendline support Risks 1. Expecting sideways movement next week and a breakout either way--> Tight stop loss 2. Retesting Accumulation zone @0.675 and 50MA 3. Bad news over the weekend (Unlikely) 4. Retailer panic selling(unlikely)
M
by ashainp
FTSE 100 Shorts Incoming With everything taken into consideration : 1. Highly leveraged debt by UK companies - which seems unlikely to be repaid , with the minimal cashflows at the moment 2. COVID19 lockdown removal will not play as optimistically as MPs expected to play 3. the new 14day lockdown will also add to the stress that the UK Economy is dealing with 4. Protests which are happening at the moment , will result for sure in many new cases of Corona virus and additional damage to the economy and lockdown release 5. Growing Tensions with China , they might result in Tariffs which the UK cannot afford at this time So with all the above fundamental confirmation As well as a typical Eliott Wave correction move A-B-C - we are seeing wave B starting to lose it's steam and the potential Wave C to the downside forming - Expected Downturn by the end of October Also the Fibbonacci level of 0.618 Hit me up on instagram : nikolaypetrov__
TVC:UKXShort
by NikolayPetrov_
Time to buy Silver?This isn't another altcoin - it's a silver precious metal. Why have I decided to present this chart? I intend to buy physical metals in the run-up to the global financial crisis. In times of instability, investors seek refuge for their investments and precious metals are generally a safe haven. I think in the next crisis, investors will choose this asset as well. It's important to note that after the dot-com bubble, investors began to invest more and more actively in silver, and it's in the crisis of 2007-2008 that it's their protective asset that grew in price until 2011 and made + 800% and it lasted until it became clear that the stock markets had recovered and continued to grow. However, what do we see now? Silver looks like a standard altcoin, after the fall we form a triangle pattern and I think we'll reach the support, horizontal line after that we can touch the main support zone near $8 per ounce. The same chart as Bitcoin when it fell from $6000 to $3000. But there is an assumption that we've already broken the support line during the Covid-19 pandemic. During a critical stage of a crisis, when stock markets will fall, at this moment silver will also fall but recover faster than stock markets. We can see an example of a repetition of this assumption on the example of a coronavirus. We are moving towards digitalization, tokenization, and I won't be amazed if in the future some kind of currency 100% backed by gold or silver appears. Therefore, having a supplied asset, like silver, will be reasonable. Especially if we talk about financial markets where people trade derivative assets ( futures, derivatives, options, etc.) for metals, I can say it with 100% confidence that all these derivatives aren't backed by real metals, and when the time comes to boost the price of silver or gold, then these arguments will necessarily be used by metal holders, by publishing it in the media and causing demand for physical metals. For those who think they can buy silver at a 50% discount. As we see in our example, during the period of "Covid-19 Crisis" states prohibited the sale of physical gold to individuals. Most likely while this period, the price on the chart will be underestimated, but you won't be able to buy because there will be no supply. Wherefore, my advice is to diversify risks. Best regards EXCAVO
S
by EXCAVO
25
$ACC can fall in the next daysContextual immersion trading strategy idea. American Campus Communities, Inc. is the largest owner, manager and developer of high-quality student housing communities in the United States. The share price fell after California public universities announced they will maintain primarily online education in the Fall. It looks like it will continue falling. The demand for shares of the company still looks lower than the supply. So I opened a short position from $26,75; stop-loss — $29,38. Information about take-profits will be later. Do not view this idea as a recommendation for trading or investing. It is published only to introduce my own vision. Always do your own analysis before making deals. When you use any materials, do not rely on blind trust. You should remember that isolated deals do not give systematic profit, so trade/invest using a developed strategy. If you like my content, you can subscribe to the news and receive my fresh ideas. Thanks for being with me!
AShort
by KozakHlib
USOIL - Time for massive gainsHello everyone, as we can see on the chart, we have been moving inside a channel for a very long time and we are at the resistance. I do think we are going to break the channel and finally get out of the bear-trend because of the following reasons: - The economy is starting again, USA is opening states, China is opening, Europe is also opening it's economy, so all of this means that the demand will increase. - Trump said that they are working hard to safe the oil industry, so he will help companies. Currently there are loans for small oil businesses, which aim to help the oil companies from bankruptcy. - We have been in a bear trend from 2008 on the monthly chart, we have been making lower highs and lower lows. I am not saying we will make higher high than 2008, I am saying that we hit -30$ on the futures, we can't go any lower than that. I don't think there is any more room for us to the downside, only to the upside. - Saudi Arabia already have cut it's production, everyone else is following, because oil is really in danger, I don't think that Saudi, USA and Russia will let oil industry die right now, especially Saudi, they need oil money in the long-run. - USA is also not going to let oil companies dissapear in America, because otherwise Saudi Arabia will be a monopoly and they will sell oil on really high prices. This is why they need oil to go higher RIGHT NOW! - China bought oil, this means that they also believe that oil is going to be more expensive in the following months and years. - We are on the resistance of the channel and if we bounce right now to the downside, then we technically should hit negative numbers, which I don't think is going to happen in the near to mid future. These are all my reasons to believe, that oil will hit 30$ this summer. Trade safe and enjoy the volatility!
FX:USOILLong
by donaitelo
13
It might be over for Sweden but for occupied EU it just started"Back to normal" will be short lived. The economy already lies in ruins... Populations of dictatorship countries are at the moment extremely weak, and they are getting released in the wold. Adolf Merkel, Adolf Macron, Adolf Trump, Adolf Johnson, and so on, have destroyed people's lives to delay a couple thousand deaths. They are not going anywhere, they're happening, and soon. Sweden is going to be just chilling, while the rest of the world might even get more deaths than usual. Hospitals could be full. So usually the cold season ends in April, but here is a little list of common summer diseases, and you just know the media is going to jump on those to fearmonger: Wow quick media! They are already fearmongering! "There are many reports of the very rare Kawasaki disease" www.euronews.com english.kyodonews.net Ye it could be linked to covid-19. As I said many times for the past 2 months: covid-19 -> lockdown -> new diseases and problems. So that's the link. Basically they report that the number of cases is rising. Now they throw in the word coronavirus in just to attract clics typical bs. Ignore whole paragraphs that contain the word coronavirus or covid and just look at the rest. Or just the title, whole media articles contents are irrelevant anyway. Just wait and see 😉 People are going to keep criticizing speculators, even the good ones that keep being right because they're smart not because laws of big numbers, and politicians will keep saying no one could have predicted no one bla bla bla and "if only we knew in advance we could have done something". They can't even fathom that it's not just about predicting the exact future with certitude with every detail but rather good prevention and awareness of what might or probably will happen and weighting the pros and cons correctly. They just imagine cristal balls and fortune tellers. So dumb. Do you often see people bulldoze their way into military camps? I don't. Why? Maybe they won't get into trouble who knows. All those people that don't charge military camps with bulldozers are just speculators that think they know the future and that they will get into trouble. Who knows, maybe the soldiers there want to play and will happily welcome any trouble maker? How about spitting on an antisocial mafia boss in international waters? No one can predict the future, maybe he will respect your courage and you'll have a good laugh about it. It's really all a matter of intelligence. If people were smarter alot of this "crazy speculation" would be common sense and "crazy speculation" would be something more complex. Every one is "smart enough" to not charge a military camp. Guess what? Your dog is not. To him there is no way to predict what will happen... And most dogs see it as "obvious" not to charge crocodiles. But not all. Ever seen the video of the little dog barking and charing the alligator until...? So clearly, it's just a matter of intelligence, what some see as obvious others see as "crazy conspiracy weirdo fortune telling". History is very kind to those: "Globe earth? Hahaha idiot! How ridiculous. Everyone knows earth is flat 🤤" Brace yourselves for more panic, volatility, huge moves, big crashes. As Jesse Livermore used to do, trade with the trend, against the “suckers” who were trying to average down. If he knows or cares about earth today he's pissing himself at Robintrack. We are very fortunate to live in a day where we can see what they are doing. A bit about what JL has said in the past, I find reading this very enjoyable (confirmation bias emotional reaction) Some sources, you might want to take a look at some of the descriptions I wrote (can't link 1000 articles): Intrinsic Photosensitivity Enhances Motility of T Lymphocytes www.nature.com Motility not mobility: mobility means can be moved, motility means can move itself. Killer cells (virus & bacteria killing) need sunlight for energy to move. Deficiency in vitamin D is associated with increased autoimmunity and an increased susceptibility to infection www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov Vitamin D supplementation to fight influenza www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov The Pivotal Role of Vitamin D during an Episode of Common Colds www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov Psychological Stress and the Human Immune System: A Meta-Analytic Study of 30 Years of Inquiry www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov Diet and Immune Function ... this is a very wide subject ... www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov Data support a clear inverse relationship between moderate exercise training and illness risk. Exercise improves defense activity and metabolic health. In a study 5000 participants were injected a virus, and separated in 2 groups, we looked at how many people died in the group doing exercise compared to jk was testing you are you paying attention? www.sciencedirect.com Problem drinking soars in the UK (what else to do?) I didn't invent that one www.theguardian.com Alcohol destroys the immune system: "significantly weaken host defenses" www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov Drinking alcohol makes people more likely to catch respiratory infections, and makes them more severe. I think most studies have focussed on the flu since it is the most serious of the 3 common types of cold. No one cared about coronavirus until the recent extraordinary mass delusion and madness of crowds. (People might be getting more paranoid and nuts from spending too much time at home in front of the tv & PC...personal opinion) www.sciencedaily.com Obesity increases vulnerability to infection www.cell.com(19)30346-8.pdf Obesity, inflammation and the immune system www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov Obesity and respiratory diseases www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov Obesity induced T cell dysfunction and implications for cancer immunotherapy www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov 2 articles about astronauts www.sciencedaily.com www.telegraph.co.uk Since I have to end on a rant about stupid people, here we go, but I'll make it original and won't rant about the paranoia surrounding the scaaary common cold that killed hundreds of people! You also have all the anecdotal evidence of astronauts getting sick after returning to earth, but don't even bother searching for it on internet search engines, it's pages and pages of "pipi poopoo space zombie virus" and "can astronauts get sick in space" and "what happens if astronauts get sick in space it could be a huge problem". Typical story, 90% of users and 100% of journalists lack the mental abilities to even think of what can happen when they return to earth. 😉
D
by MrRenev
8
Dow Jones.Alright for all these people who have no idea what actually happens right now. We are at the beginning of the biggest recession we've ever seen. We have roughly lost 55% on the DJ after the housing bubble popped. So my estimation with about a 50% decline in DJ doesn't seem far stretched off right?! We even have a big support line there?! Coincidence? I don't think so. So my target for a healthy correction would be about 15k DJ If you draw a fiblevel from 2009 low to 2020 high. You can even see 0.618 around that target. Then again we have many factors to take in. Will covid-19 magical disappear or will it mutate and get even more dangerous. I'm no doctor, but if we need at least a year to finde a vaccine I could see us drop even more crazier. Perhaps to 2nd support level. Until then with best regards Health is more important than wealth (I prefer to make videos so I don't forget everything I have in my mind. I edited this text like 5 times after release. Gonna stick to videos for the future)
TVC:DJIShort
by Juba1337