Tesla ~ TSLAZooming out here on TSLA we know that this stock is an absolute beast and with any dips given we should be investing for the upside potential it has.
TSLA on ER has potential to drop massively and can be loading up in the 700-800's possibly, this is pure speculation but if this drop comes it would be quite okay for it in the longer term.
Elon is on the call though, but lets see if he doesn't have enough magic to entice stockholders. If prices goes up higher, I'm just as happy.
Crash
DON'T IGNORE THIS ETHEREUM CHART!Hi everyone,
I figured it would be a good idea to share this find with the community. I'll explain below what I'm seeing:
RSI - Matches the same pattern as Ethereum during "consolidation" in 2016 before the euphoric 2017 bull cycle
MACD - Oversold levels not seen in years
Duration of Consolidation - As you can see, the duration of the phases circled in white both span about 90 (270 days)
Retracement - Both ranges circled in white had similar pullbacks of about +50%
Bull Market Support Band - Right before the start of a new bull phase in 2016, the PA trended below the BMSB before breaking out (we are currently at this point when comparing the two)
Obviously this isn't to be taken as FA, but it could be a very unique and rare opportunity to enter the market/add to your position as a bull/long term holder.
Let me know your thoughts!
Twitter @illusivetrades
The long waiting Correction. SP500The markets have clearly now taken a good downfall. I wont say the time has come or act like a guru , but this is the ugly truth, we are entering in a bear market , yet cant say for sure that it will continue to fall like a rocketball, but if we have a correction and again it continues downfall, we can say we are in a bear market. The truth is that if this happens we should see a 30-35% downfall , for a good correction for the overall market, beacause we all know that the market continued to new highs after the Covid-19 outbreak, even though economy was not booming , feds printing more and more money and inflation rate at 7% . Also history repeats its self ,that happens to the financial markets too..!!! . In 2008 crash markets fell 50% and that happend in a period of a year , so dont be surprised if wee se the same thing here too. To sum up , the one who loses money and afraid of the current situation is the one WHO IS NOT PREPARED FOR IT, TRADE WITH MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE!!!.
Sol's downfallSOL has always been a blockchain with lots of criticism.. and now it's confirmed to be based on objective facts. With the network going down intermittently the past 6 months, it's clear that there are growing pains and other issues that Solana has yet to have addressed properly. I have been, and always will be bearish on Solana long term.
Btc to 18-24k.Scenario 1 is btc makes a higher low above 29k and we go on forwards and onwards.
Scenario 2 which is run the lows and test for more liquidity downwards. Expect a slow car crash till 30k breaks and then a flash crash with a lower target of 18k.
Currents market enviroment is risk off, and things are going to get worse before they get better, expect a further liquidity crunch to ensue.
The reason crypto is falling isn't crypto related per se but a strong dollar index, coupled with the stock market imminent crash and further aggravated with the fed incoming anti-inflation policies.
Notably if we get the crash scenario eth will also more likely than not tap 1100-1400, ftm 60 cents.
Expect a bounce at 31600 but bounces are to be shorted at the .382 fib until we see a reversal pattern or 18-24k gets hit.
By the way if 36k breaks today without a bounce to ~37k that's extremely bearish, and given how NDAQ and SPY is on the verge of breakdown that's a 50/50%.
I wouldn't want to baghold the drop, you get in near the bottom and get a much better r/r, it's like holding through the 2020 health event crash instead of buying near 4-5k.
If you are in the market and haven't capitulated when 40600 broke, it's not too late to sell and rebuy but if youare leveraged or too afraid to take the loss you might as well buy more down there and hedge short current holding.
CryptoMarket Update (#4) : Hidden Bullish Divergences ?Here's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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The ideal Bitcoin price scenarioHello, everyone!
The market is in extreme fear for a long time, even I started to feel this fear. The fear & greed index = 13. If re my previous articles, you remember that I think the bottom is next to current prices according to some indicators. Today I want to tell you how I see the ideal reverse scenario. On the 4h chart we have to see the new lower low which coincides with the true MACD bullish divergence. After that we will see the growth to $39-40k. Such move is going to lead to divergence on the daily timeframe which is much stronger trend reverse signal. But this is only assumption, we should see the confirmation of this scenario which I tell you when it will be the time.
Moreover, I conducted a survey, the most people think that the price will break down $30k first than break through the $40k.
DISCLAMER: Information is provided only for educational purposes. Do your own study before taking any actions or decisions at the real market.
The Four way stop in front of the crypto market. BTC is driving.Most other established crypto charts reflect the same point of epic decision. Even the neutral path will be groundbreaking. As it will add a new component to the bitcoin pattern development. Outside of the March 2020 reactive crash this would be the most unusual path. For me, it would show the line between those who want to free and those who want to control the currency of the world. Beautiful moment. you can see the power and the calm.
Possible SPY Outcomes - Jan/Feb 2022To create these prices and their respective labels, the following indicators were used:
Volume Price Profile
Fibonacci Retracement
Consolidation Channels
Potential MACD lengths
Outcome #1 in RED, Outcome #2 in YELLOW
Overall, I have the sentiment that it will continue lower, at some point. There are an infinite number of factors that could affect when, and how fast it does fall (-10% next week, -30% over next two months etc.) This is just to help map my personal game plan.
#1: Bull Market Reversal Price: This is the price I have decided that I personally will use as an indicator that a correction is over, and there should not be any huge crash in the near future (excluding news, events). Approaching this point, I would chart something that is more bullish to prepare for that.
#2: Support Ranges: Of course as SPY dumps (if it does) it will not be a linear path. There will be locations in every price where there is some support met. The ranges marked are locations where the support may be its strongest, and likely good areas to exit short positions.
#3: Gap to Fill: There was a 7% increase in 2.5 weeks in this area, with 2% of this happening over the weekend. Other traders/ investors could expect this gap to be filled before any major consolidation or reversal. Just something to keep in mind.
#4: The red line is where most volume by price is since Nov. 2020. If it goes this low, I'd expect some good support in this area because of it, and the simple fact that it is 400 (a big psychological support.)
Some other possible outcomes are: consolidation from SPY Support #1 and Spy Resistance #1 for as long as needed, tech earnings are crazy good and the market goes full blown bullish, or very long term consolidation in a much larger range until their is confidence in the market again or it loses steam.
Crash this year or later?Eventually spy will collapse on to that long term growth line in white. For sure it will happen, not sure when, it could be by the end of this year or even next year.
We may have a bounce here and there, with high volatility. Fed meeting in March could accelerate or decelerate the eventual collapse.
Growth stocks have already collapsed more than 50% and may not recover, could see more drops. There could be immediate dead cat bounce in the coming days.
Be cautious moving forward.
The Monkey and the Wise OwlOne night, the monkey was monkeying as usual, jumping up and down, left and right, holding his fingers straight out of his head as if they were horns of a fearless bull. The Owl watched carefully, one eye skeptical, the other sarcastic.
"What do you think you are doing?" said the wise owl.
"I am hedging with BTC against a market crash," said the monkey, who didn't need an adjective to have his character described.
"You are doing what?!" said the wise owl with half a chuckle, while still holding to its skeptical/sarcastic look. "Look deeper into my eyes and you shall see."
"Shall see what?" asked the monkey monkey eagerly.
"You shall see experience, you fool," replied the wise owl, "If you hedge volatility with more risk, especially if the correlation coefficient is almost 1 more than 80% of the time, and, even more, when the coefficient was low, it was because BTC was falling while the market didn't, then you must be insane."
"The past doesn't necessarily predict the future," echoed the monkey with one of those packaged sentences that he knows by heart.
"I will give you that," said the wise owl. "But then, why do you expect BTC to go up?"
"Because it always did in the past," replied the monkey confidently. "And even the market rises eventually after any crash," it felt the urge to add.
"Indeed," replied the wise owl so calmly, that kind of calmness which signals the lack of interest in further conversation. They waved goodbye.
Back to its precious solitude, the owl switched to is smartphone, navigated to the investment app, and opened a massive short position on the monkey's future, while using BTC as a hedge.
Why Your Shorts Are Not Winning - Part 2The trend continues to be your friend until the very end.
This is 2 day chart that I posted in the beginning of the year that continues to be in play since the COVID meltdown in early 2020.
Price has been in a strong uptrend with very few pullbacks. Even the pullbacks result in dramatic reversals and pumps to the upside.
Here is where it gets interesting. We are approaching the top of the channel and the last time we touched the top of the channel, we had a strong pullback.
Is the market melting up, only to reach the top of the channel and turn back? Is price going to breakout of this huge channel? I think we're going to find the answers to these questions very soon.
Good luck. Never play the breakouts, wait for the retests. When it feels really right, it's probably wrong, and when it feels very wrong it's probably right.
The U.S Bubble Pop Of 2022 - And Japan? TLDR: The market is about to likely crash, in a much needed and healthy correction of capital placement in various industries and businesses. Why? Look no further than the Japanese Stock Crash of 1989, and see its similarities.
In 1988, Japan was on the verge of becoming one of the worlds greatest economic super powers. Its monetary policy had allowed for historically low interest rates and investors had created a housing bubble caused by liquidity. Japan's economy was a prosperous tank, and nothing seemed to be slowing it down any time soon (despite cries from numerous, increasingly impatient market gurus that the opposite was true.) Companies grew, exponentially, without the innovation or competition to match such growth. Inflation was at an all time high, and the housing market was completely inaccessible to young people (sound familiar?) In fact, the economy was so well, that Japans index, Nikkei, saw gains of ~ 30% year after year -- 5 years in a row (A total of 900% in the previous 15 years!) At this point in history, Japan was the leading manufacturer for new innovations in the tech world (Walkman, VHS, CD's, DVD's, INSTANT NOODLES, all from Japan). This boom in emerging new tech was clearly reflected in the markets. In fact, at its peak in 1989, Sony casted one of the largest acquisitions ever! The company paid $3.4 Billion for Colombia Pictures, despite have little earnings. This was move was out fear and speculation, as Sony wanted an edge on its competitors in the film tech world (Comparable to the historic Microsoft/ Activision acquisition perhaps?)
History shows that inflation is great for equities, until the government is cornered and has to take it seriously!
That is exactly what happened. This story was short lived, as it all came crashing down in 1989 and 1990. In 1989, Japan had elections and switched its form of power. A new political and economic policy entered, and when this new administration began tightening its policy to a more conservative standard (to fight ever rising inflation), the markets felt it. In just two short years, Japans speculative Nikkei market came crashing down 60% (it still hasn't fully recovered at 40% from its all time high, 30 years later.) Investment firms and corporations who used their capital to speculate in investments (which the public assumed would not lose their value) were forced to exit their equity exposure and risk at much lower prices.
Simply put, shareholders and venture capitalists had too much faith in these emerging markets and newer systems. Who could blame them? The past several years, the market was outperforming any investment in recent times. However, they were so comfortable and prideful, they had forgotten the risk of high rising equities and investments (this risk was compounded by greed, causing excessive and easy margin borrowing. We'll get more into this later, in another post.)
So, what is the lesson and how can we learn from this to prepare?
Just ask the Japanese. In 1998, Japanese technology was booming so much, it caused a surge of euphoria that investors did not want to miss out on. This euphoria compounds until it can no longer be maintained, confidence dwindles, and the market is hit. They've learned the lesson that in times of high deviation from the mean, it's important to exercise a healthy level of caution. This can be done by investing in real cash-flowing investments that have stood the test of time (commodities, land, gold, to name a few) and by sitting on a nice stash of cash (although, be careful, INFLATION!) This way, you can deploy your cash when the market is at a discount and become a gazillionaire. (I'll touch base on other ways you can make outstanding profit in a potentially bearish economy, in another post.)
As always, this is just a historical example. History never repeats itself, but it often rhymes like a rapper. The conditions we are in today are different in many ways, but by finding the similarities and drawing parallels, maybe we can prevent ourselves from being turkeys. (More on turkeys in a future post)
DJI (2H): That mini crash - what does next week hold?Well, there is trouble in the markets for sure. Last week saw a meltdown of about 8% from one peak, on the DJI.
My crystal ball broke a long time ago, and I'm not getting a new one from Ebay. 😂
The video outlines how vigilance on the 2H timeframe paid off for anyone who wanted to short this market.
So - what about next week (beginning Mon 24th Jan)? No predictions, all you get is probability and some of my experience. (Note the disclaimer below)
There is a massive gap between the 2H ATR line and the lowest price point. That in conjunction with the deep dive (much of it being panic), suggests that dip-buyers (unless they've wised up) are gonna plough in.
What those folk are largely unaware of is that Wall Street traders can not only sell but short sell.
What if price gets above the 2H ATR line next week or the following week? It doesn't mean a lot because there is the mother of 4H and 6H trends in the bigger picture. In fact there has already been a major shift in market sentiment on the 1D time frame. That's something to do with the FED, and interest rates etc. But in technical analysis causal factors are not so important.
A grind down further from the current price point is also possible.
My overall estimate is for rebellions. It could be very wild out there next week. That's good for scalping if you know what you're doing.
Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FTM Short after it's next rallyFTM is a fantastic project and I made a mistake not holding this short and entering long on TOMB Finance.
It will bounce as BTC will over the next week or 2 and most likely regain over the 2.1-2.2 area, here I will be exiting positions with whatever cash is left and entering short for the weeks afterwards. I will accumulate more FTM on the way down but it is never good to catch a falling knife. This chart looks to be a few weeks behind BTC's, which means it could fall 50% from here still.