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Euro Crash. ( Updated ) O.o We update the analysis of the Euro that we have already done on other occasions. I think it's very easy to see what happens here. - Bearish Channel, bouncing off institutional support or resistance zones, but with a dark future. Where the highest probability will be to see the Euro again at $0.85 very soon in 2023 (as we discussed in previous analyses) but also after a break of perhaps 1 and a half years of setback and relief. We will be able to live a new strong Fall until the year 2026 where we could see a Euro in values ​​of $0.75 and finally for the year 2030 a fall of up to $0.64 to $0.56. As we can see, it is NOT safe to maintain any currency other than the USD, since this is the dominant one, but the dollar does not protect us. The dollar is very damaged with a loss of more than 98% of the purchasing power of citizens over the years, but within all currencies it is the STRONGEST. - On the other hand we will be able to see that the projections for the rest of the currencies are also horrendous, with which it will not be an isolated case only for the euro. We may see a Pound (GBP) at $0.85 by 2026 and up to $0.50 by 2030 if the trend DOES NOT CHANGE. And if he hasn't done it in all these years... why should he now? - At the same time we can observe the currency of Japan (Japanese Yen) This currency seemed to be quite respected against the dollar, but that is over. We are facing a macro figure of change in trend. (A pattern known as the Inverted Headshoulder, + Bottom Round + Past Trend Break + Trend Reversal Confirmation by Breaking Previous Relative Highs) It is time to worry and go. We are about to witness a loss of Value with respect to the dollar of at least 50%, 60%, 70% and the Japanese Yen up to values ​​of 150% (in case of breaking the levels of 160) from June of the year 2021 until the year 2030
Short
by javieralcazarono
Catalysts for The Global Financial Crisis 2.0The current level of euphoria and speculation on Wall Street is likely to go down in history in the same way that the misplaced optimism of speculators in 1929 was immortalized by the tremendous crash and ensuing depression. The current dynamics at play are more similar to that period than most realize. Many potential catalysts for the Global Financial Crisis 2.0 are beginning to rear their heads, including things such as: -The auto loan bubble -The residential & commercial real estate bubble -The private equity and venture capital bubble -The largest losses in the total bond market in generations -Highest level of Federal Debt to GDP in US history and extremely high level of consumer & corporate debt in US history -The most overvalued market based on forward earnings in history (Based on my expectations of S&P 2023 earnings will fall below 140). Peak margins above -13% coming back under 10% will also help to drive this. -The fastest pace of interest rate hikes since Paul Volcker and $90 billion of quantitative tightening per month. -The crypto bubble implosion where many exchanges are likely to fail due to their ponzi-like staking dynamics and unprofitable nature of exchanges like Coinbase. We are starting to see the beginnings of the financial contagion from FTX into other exchanges and coins. This is happening in an industry valued at over $3 trillion at its peak. -The Chinese real estate crisis and recession -The energy crisis which has curtailed over 20% of EU industrial capacity and is sending Europe into a recession. This is leading to increased energy costs around the world. -Looming sovereign debt crises & currency crises for many emerging and certain developed economies. The $1.6 trillion auto loan bubble is reminiscent of the subprime lending bubble. There were incredibly loose lending standards in this auto loan bubble, where people that received federal stimulus checks were able to claim these as income. This entitled them to larger sized loans than they would have otherwise had access too. Many of these loans were made at over 130% loan to value ratio. These loans have been packaged up as bonds and sold off to investors hungry in search for yield in a world of artificially low interest rates, suppressed by the Fed for the better part of 14 years since the Global Financial Crisis. The amount of delinquent auto loans has continued to increase, and the looming crisis represents a huge threat to financial stability. As real wages and employment continue to fall, the amount of delinquent loans will continue to rise. Earnings for the S&P 500 in Q3 have already started to contract more than 5% year over year (excluding energy) and yet many analysts still expect some, to no growth of earnings in 2023. Earnings are likely to collapse over 40% in 2023, pressured by falling consumer demand and falling operating margins. Consumer sentiment registered the worst sentiment among US consumers since the great depression. All of the Fed manufacturing and service data components show comparable data now to data being released in mid 2008 to the spring of 2009, all with continuously negative trends. Capital expenditures have begun decreasing and mass layoffs are just beginning. 37% of US small businesses could not pay their rent in full in October. Many companies will be forced to close their doors permanently and layoff their entire staff. Consumption began to fall rapidly after the Fed began quantitative tightening and ended quantitative easing. The effects finally began hitting company earnings largely in Q3, with much more pain to follow. Meanwhile, many companies continued to hire large amounts of people unaware that consumption would continue to collapse. As asset prices fall further and inflation stays elevated, real wages will continue falling. Student loan payments begin again at the start of 2023, further harming consumer sentiment. Money supply growth began stagnating early in the year in 1929 and the federal government began to tighten spending with the New Deal programs in 1936 before the crash happened in 1937. Bank balance sheets have been flat for 2022 while the central bank balance sheet has been contracting leading to a slight contraction in the money supply. The contracting growth of monetary supply and fast paced increases in interest rates will lead to a large-scale downturn in GDP. On a technical basis, the current market setup looks very similar to 1929, 1937, 1973-1974, 1987, and 2008. All of which had major rallies that topped in late summer / fall before crashing over 30%. All of these crashes took place over the span of less than 3 months, with the majority of the percentage decline occurring over a period of 2-3 weeks. There are dozens of companies that are virtually guaranteed to go bust in this downturn based on an overview of their financials. There have never been so many listed companies that reached valuations in the billions at their peak with no earnings. Many companies at the time of this writing still have valuations of over 6 times sales and many companies such as Coinbase, Uber, and Rivian are still valued at over $10 billion market caps whilst losing hundreds of millions of dollars per quarter. The dozens of zombie companies in the S&P 500 are being forced into rolling their debts at higher interest rates while their earnings fall. This will be the largest debt deleveraging cycle in the US economy since the great depression, because this is the largest accumulation of bad debts since the roaring twenties. It is not long until the credit risk is truly realized by market participants, and interest rates spike throughout the economy. This would include the inter-bank lending rate and junk rated bonds which would lead to a financial crisis. The longer the Fed’s quantitative tightening runs, the more inevitable the financial crisis becomes. The Fed ran the balance sheet down around $600 billion over the course of 2018 into late summer of 2019 before inter-bank lending rates started to spike. This time, the Fed has run the balance sheet down close to $300 billion so far with a plan of reaching over a $600 billion runoff in Q1 of 2023. The hopes for a Fed pivot are misplaced. A Fed pivot on interest rate hikes and even a reversal of the rate hikes cannot re-incentivize people to borrow. When you’re in a contracting credit cycle and business cycle downturn, debt begins to be paid off and defaulted on rather than excessively accumulated. The demand to borrow collapses even if interest rates were lowered by the Fed. Therefore, bear markets and recessions usually don’t end until many months after the Fed has already begun cutting interest rates. This was seen in the Great Recession and the dot com bubble of 2000; where the market didn’t bottom until over 18 months after the Fed began cutting rates.
SP:SPXShort
by Alexander_C_Lambert
2
DefiLlama: Total Value Locked by Protocols"Exchange is not your wallet". "Not your keys, not your coins" Despite the strong turmoil due to the FTX crash, DeFi dApps (Decentralized Finance applications that run on blockchains) remain intact, at least for the most part. And given this bad context of the crypto market, it is worth noting that Dexes (decentralized exchanges) and Landing Protocols have proven to be much more resilient and secure than centralized exchanges, since the former have a more open administration and a source code that can be accessed and audited. On the other hand, centralized exchanges are a black box, and at this delicate moment, there are doubts if they really have enough balance to honor all withdrawals. DefiLlama TVL (Total Value Locked) The graph presented here shows the monetary values ​​locked in the main dApps, also called protocols. What the graph indicates is that the DeFi ecosystem remains intact, and so far the application that has suffered the most withdrawals and losses has been Mango Markets, which runs on the Solana blockchain. Due to the Alameda/FTX contamination, some Solana dApps may suffer more. The worst case scenario in case of eviction According to DefiLlama, the total amount locked in DeFi is $76.13b. Doing a very quick baker's account with approximate values: + Total TVL: $76,000,000,000.00 - FTX Leak: $10,000,000,000.00 - Investments by Alameda/FTX in Solana and some dApps: $6,031,139,675.00 ------------------------------- = $59,968,860,325,000 (-21%) So, if the market drops more, we could have a drop of another 21%, distributed among these protocols. But, again, this is just a quick calculation and could be wrong, and it is not investment advice. Final word This will be a time of consolidation, in which ecosystems with solid governance will prove their worth and emerge from this crisis even stronger.
DEFILLAMA:AAVE_TVL
by andre_007
DXY setting up for huge bounce to coincide with crypto crash pt2Interesting chart here on the DXY daily we can see the sharp pull back to strong support line so that’s one more clue that things are about to get uglier in the crypto space. This past week‘s events have cast the block shadow on the entire industry and likely will put increased pressure on institutions and big investors to further limit exposure. In the life cycle of investor emotions, were seeing capitulation but I haven’t quite seen the final stage of despondency that ear marks the true bottom. So I think we have further to drop, likely to $14,000, or $12,500 which would be the 100 month moving average. There is also still the unfilled CME gap between 9750 and 9780 so a $10,000 bitcoin could still be in the cards for this is all over.
TVC:DXYShort
by BrettFogle
3
FTX and the end of an eraThe fall of FTX will go down in history as something similar to the crash of 2008. On Friday, 11/11/2022, a court-supervised reorganization was requested, the first step towards filing for bankruptcy. In this chart, we can see the balance of assets belonging to the hodlers of the FTT token, used on the FTX exchange. Surreptitiously, on September 26, someone with inside information already knew the boat was going to sink. And these managed to get a lifeboat before everyone else... This can be proven by comparing the same type of chart in other cryptocurrencies, where nothing absurdly out of the ordinary is noticed: BTC ETH AAVE ADA BUSD (Binance) COINEX Curve dYDX GUSD (Gemini) HT (Huobi) HUSD (Huobi) KCS (Kucooin) CRO Polygon Magic Internet Money OKB (OKX) QuickSwap (Polygon) USDC USDT ------------------------- Another indicator that demonstrates the problem to come is the Volume of transactions with a value of $100,000 or greater in USD . On FTX’s FTT token, there was a strangely unusual volume, ahead of other cryptocurrencies: FTT BTC ETH USDC (note that high volume happened just days later, in the desperation of multiple withdrawals and moves) ------------------------- The Amount of asset held by Whales is another indicator that I bring here to compare some exchanges, but not all of them are available. FTT (FTX) BUSD (Binance) (this information does not exist for BNB) Coinex CRO dYDX GUSD (Gemini) HT (Huobi) (⁉️) HUSD (Huobi) KCS (Kucoin) OKB (OKX) USDK (OKX) Uniswap Better times will come.
INTOTHEBLOCK:FTT_HODLERSBALANCE
by andre_007
Pre-Pandemic Level Untapped!!All markets are targeting the levels they were trading at right before the PANDEMIC CRASH! Keep in mind these were the natural levels that were unaffected by the massive supply of funds that were injected into the economy. It only makes sense that we reach those levels again for an official reset. BLUE LINE! Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below! Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT. Don't trade with what you're not willing to lose. Safe Trading, Calculate Your Risk/Reward & Collect! This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
SP:SPXShort
by rnaofs
1
BTCUSDT: A1000x True reversal pointHello traders! Welcome back to another episode with analyst Aadil1000x. The market crashed hard and I already warned you about this. Traders made huge in this crash but it is not a day to be happy as many traders lost a lot. I was not in a hurry to update the chart but an update of the market was high in demand so I cracked the bottom of this dump. BTC crashed exactly from my 21429 True Reversal point and it will stop at the 10700 true reversal point, it's nearly 34% away from 16200, and by looking at the speed of drop it might not take time to hit it. But if the market needed the strength to touch 10700 then it will find a good place to accumulate and after that BTC will give a tricky move which will end at 10700. For those who are new here, I must tell you the true reversal point is one of a kind strategy that detects perfect reversals with pinpoint accuracy. I must be clear to you that 10700 is not the bottom of this mega fall. It's the bottom of this dump. I also know the exact bottom of this mega fall and I will reveal it soon. Don't forget to hit the like button and follow to stay connected
Short
by Aadil1000x
8
Control of congress is very UNCLEARY’all this is huge … during midterm elections the democrats are hoping for no republicans blowout but suddenly it will happen or too close to call. In congress it’s very unclear and too close to call what it’s going to happen. But will the republicans blowout will cause an economic crash ? Or how the Feds reserve will react to it because the next interest rate hike decision while the inflation still over 40 year high. This seems like the crash in USA is coming along with Significant Recession in 2023, the worst is coming
FX:NAS100
by JoyBoyVegae
bitcoin flash crash is on the wayBTC has formed massive descending triangle and we are about to see a massive flash crash. CPI report is also coming on 13 oct, so we need to wait for that report in order to take action. we also need to wait for breakout and retest. a simple breakout could cause a quick flash crash. i am expecting $10k $btc by the end of this year although anything could happen i will be updating this idea on regular basis whether we are going to break upside or downside. bearish scenario is most probable at this point.
Short
by Bitsleader
4
Binance got bankrupted and bought FTXBig trouble for binance, they had gotten bankrupted it then bought FTX, wait there’s more. Binance the largest crypto trading in a world has a problem of sell off liquidity.. even so remember the big crash from LUNA.. that what happened. But the takeover is a big red flag for them and cause FTX to collapse as well wiped out over $2billion in value. For bitcoin it briefly touches the new lows for the year, should expect more collapse and downfall, the bear market isn’t over and the crash already begun. 12K,10K should be a Best Buy opportunity so please don’t miss those buy zone.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by JoyBoyVegae
1
why 50% plus 1 day crash in FTT matters for all marketsfinancialized markets all move together in times of liquidity panics. Thats why we must pay attention when we hear of certain market going wild in large percentage moves. FTT token may not matter to everyone, but it matters if it gives us an insight to market mechanics that affect everyone. Crypto liquidity panics will harm investor trust and sentiment. Losses in any market can also force investors to sell liqduid and perfectly good assets in order to fund other illiquid areas. Not in anyway advice. But worth watching and observing. SPY QQQ DIA VT FTTUSD TOTAL HYG AAPL
FTX:FTTUSD
by optionfarmers
3
20K support has been broken|Crash has startedAn update of my last post I had been expecting for 20K support area to break and now it has been broken. Now the buy going to be very short and then will drop a lot more, not that far to hit back to mid 17K area, then break and go further down. Bad News for bitcoin.. about a decade ago the Feds had announced that bitcoin $3.36billion has been stolen from illegal Silk Road marketplace, it from the Dark web if anyone is familiar with it. Bearish target: Mid 17K Break the support then drop to 15K zone 3rd target 13K; relief rally buy and sell around 16K Final target 10K even lower is possible
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by JoyBoyVegae
The Depression of 2022-2024In a severe economic contraction with unemployment above 10% and interest rates above 5% ( mortgage rates above 8%) puts the S&P's probable trough multiple below 10. My projections based off of: the contractions of 1920-1921 & 1929-1933, the current data on manufacturing and services in the USA and around the world, and the money supply. 100-125 earnings per share at a multiple of 10 would put the S&P below 1250 at its potential trough. Current S&P Earnings projections expect some to no growth, but I expect Q3 2023 S&P EPS to have contracted by at least 50% from levels it reached at its peak.
SP:SPXShort
by Alexander_C_Lambert