Sterling finished on high against US dollarSterling finished the European session on a high note against the US dollar on Monday, despite UK PM Boris Johnson announcing new restrictions in order to help curb the surge in coronavirus cases.
Technically, the H4 timeframe tested an interesting area of resistance between 1.31/1.3064 , composed of the 1.31 handle, resistance from 1.3064, August’s opening value at 1.3078 and channel resistance, drawn from the high 1.2929.In terms of resistance, price has room to advance as far north as the 2020 yearly opening value at 1.3250. What’s more, the daily timeframe is seen making headway north of resistance at 1.3017, with eyes on resistance at 1.3200.Clearance of 1.31 on the H4, as a result of the above, might have breakout buyers make an appearance, targeting the 1.32 handle, which also represents daily resistance.
Suggestion: BUY GBPUSD AT CMP 1.3045 ADD TILL 3030 FOR TGT 1.3095/3130 SL BELOW 1.2970
ELSE
SELL BELOW 1.2970 TGT 1.2940/2920 SL 1.3030
Covid-2019
1,173,975 CONFIRMED FR COVID19 cases by 19th November 20201,173,975 CONFIRMED FR COVID19 cases by 19th November 2020 before going up faster.
SPHealth 2 Week Comparisons (Oct 7-20 2020)SPHealth - Growth Analysis & Comparison - Cindicator Poll Submission (October 7th - 20th 2020)
I've been looking through my Cindicator questions, making forecasts and watching markets as new polls pop up. Here's a comparison chart for 5 major S&P health companies and my rankings forecast.
(Descending order from most growth to least)
United Health Group Inc (UNH)
Abbott Labs (ABT)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Merck & Co. (MRK)
This forecast will be explicitly graded by total growth % comparisons of opening prices on October 7th to closing prices on October 20th across the 5 aforementioned companies.
As of right now before 10-9-20 daily market open, the percentage growth is as follows:
UNH +1.9%
PFE +1.87%
JNJ +1.56%
ABT +1.1%
MRK +0.54%
When looking at a specific metric within the already completed duration since I submitted my forecast, overall recent growth is:
UNH +2.82%
PFE +2.66%
JNJ +2.24%
MRK +2.22%
ABT +1.62%
10-9-20 Forecast Adjustments:
Now that I have seen the last 2 days play out, I'm starting to notice a couple things about my forecast and actual live value.
I'm confident that United Health will still outperform, but this outlook could change if any major market sell off occurs before the 20th. Pfizer looks like it could be a strong runner up, and I may have flubbed my original forecast by ranking it 4th in growth. Johnson & Johnson is performing approximately as expected. Merck and Abbott Labs could be tricky to pinpoint exactly without some further research and analysis but, I'm guessing that Abbott may come in 4th place if everything settles after any quick rallies that should happen. If a light pump in Merck occurs over the 19th-20th, then there could be a small chance it outperforms Abbott for 4th but it feels like an unlikely scenario.
After these deliberations, I've decided my forecast doesn't need much adjusting other than to swap the placement of Pfizer and Abbott. My updated forecast is as follows:
United Health Group Inc (UNH)
Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Abbott Labs (ABT)
Merck & Co. (MRK)
One thing to note is that I believe TradingView is not calculating its percentage scale correctly, its placing the 0% Y axis at the close value of the first candle used to calculate growth. So this graph is really just more for me to check my own work by hand, as the percentages on the left will not accurately portray what is actually being graded by Cindicator.
I'll check back in after the 20th to see how this turned out!
Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, I am not responsible for any losses incurred while attempting to use my data, I hope this can prove to be some sort of learning tool for some and give insight as to how I personally come up with my own numbers. Take into full consideration this could be a completely bad forecast. Cheers
WTI rose on support from output shutdowns ahead of storm in USCrude prices edged higher, touching levels of $43 on support from output shutdowns ahead of a storm in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and prospect of supply losses in Norway along with hopes for some U.S. COVID relief aid supported prices. Prices got supported after reports of Saudi Arabia considering reversing course over OPEC’s planned production increase early next year which is definitely a positive for the markets.
Optimism over additional fiscal support in U.S. resurfaced, but the back and forth between policymakers could see volatility linger for a while yet. For Norway, Oil firms and labor officials might meet with a state-appointed mediator today in an attempt both sides hope will bring an end to a
strike that threatens to cut Norway’s output by some 25%. On Hurricane front, Oil workers have withdrawn from U.S. Gulf production facilities as Hurricane Delta was forecast to intensify into a powerful, Category 3 storm. Nearly 1.5 Mbpd of daily output was halted and forecast indicates that
markets can lose almost 5MB in this storm, supporting prices. The crude oil supply events along with positive talks for Stimulus will keep prices supported for coming session.
Suggestion: BUY WTI OIL FROM 40.55-60 SL BELOW 40 TGT 42 ELSE SELL BELOW 39.50 TGT 38.70 SL ABV 40.60
Will EURO fly again post muted session on Thursdayt was a relatively muted session for EUR/USD Thursday, capped under August’s opening value at 1.1771 on the H4 timeframe. An attempt to draw in fresh bids off October’s opening value at 1.1730 was seen, though price fell short at lows from 1.1732. Overhead, trend line resistance, taken from the high 1.1917, and the 1.18 handle is visible. Beyond here, we do not see much on offer until Quasimodo resistance at 1.1888. Below 1.1730, nevertheless, 1.17 is likely to call for attention.
Suggestion: BUY EURUSD FROM 1.1755-60 SL BELOW 1.1710 TGT 1.1800 ELSE SELL BELOW 1.1700 TGT 1.1640/1600
Sterling ahead of 1.3015, level which should mindful again::Thursday, as can be seen from the H4 chart, retested the 1.29/channel support (1.2805) combination and held firm, printing a close back above October’s opening value at 1.2925. This has potentially transferred energy back towards the key figure 1.30 ( surrounded by H4 resistance at 1.3009 and daily resistance at 1.3017).017/1.30 resistance (red area on the H4) remains a zone to be mindful of. The break back above October’s opening value at 1.2925 is likely to spark intraday bullish scenarios to 1.30. Violating 1.29 and channel support (H4), extended from the low 1.2805, would help confirm bearish strength south of daily resistance at 1.3017 and may see H4 hone in on 1.28, which happens to merge closely with daily trend line support coming in from the low 1.2075.
Gold bottomed out post Trump asked Nancy to review stimulus billGold prices edged higher in the early morning session, supported by a weaker dollar and optimism over a new U.S. coronavirus relief aid after resident Donald Trump said talks with Congress have restarted. Giving a contrary statement as compared to few days back, President Trump said there was a good chance a deal over COVID-19 relief could be reached, but gave no other details about a possible agreement. Market participants today will focus on the policy meet scheduled on the domestic front and expectation is that the central bank could maintain rates unchanged but importantly investors will be keeping an eye on the stance that RBI adopts for inflation. Gold-backed exchange traded funds added more than 1,000 tonnes of bullion worth $60 billion at current prices to their stockpile in the first nine months of 2020, driving a sizzling price rally, according to World Gold Council (WGC).
Technical: Gold trading at 1910 in asian session rose about 0.85% from the recent low 1872. H4 perceptive, we observed head and shoulders pattern where the break is needed above 1916 for the same to rise till 2000 as per pattern calculation, with a hurdle at 1922 or 200ma. Trading above 1900 is the one where one can make every dip as a buy on every dip till it holds above. Downside a break below recent low 1871 can test the 1845 which is daily support. For the day perceptive one can wait for the drop till 1900-04 zone for fresh buys witha 1902 as day support and 1893 as a pivot which tested already. Overall buy on dips is advised for the day.
Suggestion: BUY GOLD FROM 1902-04 L BELOW 1885 TGT 1922 ELSE SELL BELOW 1885 TGT 1871/1865 SL ABV 1905
Crude firm as EIA showed that fuel demand improvedWTI Crude prices dipped over 1.7 percent to close at $40.2 per barrel as surge in U.S. Crude inventory levels clouded the demand outlook for Crude; however, lingering supply worries limited the fall. As per reports from the Energy Information Administration, U.S. Crude inventory levels rose marginally by 501,000 barrels in the week ending on 2 nd October’20. However, the losses were limited as Hurricane delta rapidly approached
the U.S. Gulf coast forcing the energy companies to shut around 17% of total U.S. crude output in an attempt to avoid any damage. Failed wage talks between the union and the Norwegian Oil and Gas Association (NOG) triggered a strike leading to the closure of Six Norwegian offshore oil and gas fields. More number of workers going on strike over the wage issue risked an output of 330,000 barrels of oil per day alos supported Oil prices.
Suggestion: BUY USOIL FROM 40 SL BELOW 39.40 TGT 40.50/40.90 ELSE SELL BELOW 39.40 TGT 38.80/60 SL ABV 40.20
Sterling could dive down again on Brexit, new lockdown measuresBank of England policy maker Jonathan Haskel said he’s prepared to back more monetary support for the U.K. if necessary as he warned that the near-term risks to the economy lie to the downside. He also signaled he’s supportive of negative interest rates as a policy tool, noting research that suggests it may have had a positive effect elsewhere. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is reportedly considering new restrictions to cope with rising COVID-19 infections. More and more cities in England and Scotland are slapping new measures on their residents.
Technically GBPUSD correlating positively to dollar, as dollar sideways to strong so far this pair facing resistance at every high. For now , 1hr chart suggesting a pair will test the fib 61.8% level at 1.2950-55 which is the day resistance 1 too. Earlier it was faced resistance many times at same zone which could resist today also. One can wait for that level and initiate the sells from there to the downside 1.2895 or 50ma followed be 1.2845 oct 7th low. Overall sell on rise is advised.
Gold on mixed note as mixed statements reg stimulus bill ::Gold prices were steady as mixed statements regarding the new Coronavirus relief bill, kept the bullion afloat. Top White House officials
downplayed the possibility of more coronavirus relief, while House Speaker Nancy Pelosi disparaged U.S. President Trump for backing away from talks on a comprehensive deal. U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers split over how to apply a new strategy for monetary policy at their September meeting, and, amid growing doubts about the path of the economy, offered no clear sense of their next steps to offset the coronavirus recession, minutes from their September meeting showed. Apart from BOE and ECB meeting minutes scheduled later in the day wherein comments from their respective Governors will be important to watch for, market participants will also focus on the US weekly jobless claims data; if recorded better than expectations it could support the metal prices.
Technical: we like to monitor H4 support at $1,871 today. A H4 close below $1,871 could trigger bearish scenarios to H4 support at $1,835, which sits just under daily support at $1,841 (the next downside target on the daily timeframe). A decisive rebound from $1,871, nevertheless, suggests the pendulum may swing in favor of weekly bulls off support at $1,882.
COVID19 AND THE VIX -- daily Ichimoku cloud breaksin the recent past, when we see a Ichimoku Cloud break in the VIX ( Volatility S&P 500 Index ) we see a strong acceleration upwards. The most recent example of this was on 13 Feb 2020
Inversely proportional to the VIX , the S&P 500 Index had a significant breakdown, represented on 21 Feb 2020
Since COVID19 outbreak, governments around the world have been scrambling to control their domestic economies by stimulus and monetisation of debt stoking Global Hyperinflation, and now real people are starting to feel the economic effects of Lockdowns and COVID19 travel and border restrictions.
Currently TVC:SPX is entering the cloud, and the VIX is coiling to break through the cloud.
This is true for other Major Indices around the world.
Northern Hemisphere is entering their "winter flu season" and USA has their contentious Presidential Election looming in NOV. This could be shaping up for a BIG BOUT of VOLATILITY....
Trump abandoned stimulus talks, Gold fell to one week lowGold prices on Wednesday hovered near a one-week low hit in the previous session, after U.S. President Donald Trump halted new stimulus talks, bolstering the dollar. Prospects for more aid for Americans struggling through the COVID-19 pandemic and U.S. airlines seeking to avert a wave of layoffs crumbled on Tuesday when Trump ended negotiations until after the November election. U.S. and European central bankers called for renewed government spending to support families and businesses as the battle against the coronavirus triggered recession enters a newly critical phase, giving some support to gold on lower levels. Economic calendar is fairly light today on data front, although market participants will keep an eye on the FOMC minutes scheduled later in the day, wherein comments from the fed governor will be in focus. Holdings in SPDR gold Trust, the world’s largest gold backed exchange traded fund, fell 0.32% to 1271.52 tonnes on Tuesday.
Technical: H4 resistance at $1,916 held back buyers, with the candles settling the session just north of H4 support coming in at $1,871. Daily price also receded lower from resistance at $1,911, aided by trend line resistance, extended from the high $2,075. Shaped in the form of a bearish outside day reversal, the daily chart reveals scope to approach support at $1,841. While both the daily and H4 timeframes eye lower levels, traders might want to take into account that weekly price remains circling a support level at $1,882. In addition to this, the trend in this market has faced decisively north since 2016.
Sellers are likely monitoring H4 support at $1,871 today, as a push through here shines the spotlight on H4 support at $1,835, which sits just under daily support at $1,841 (the next downside target on the daily timeframe). Consequently, a H4 close below $1,871 could trigger bearish scenarios, while a decisive rejection from $1,871 suggests the pendulum may swing in favour of weekly bulls off support at $1,882.
Gold jumped 1% optimism around a stimulus bill and weak dollarGold jumped 1% hitting almost a two week high, on optimism around a U.S. stimulus bill and a weakened dollar, despite gains in the stock markets after reports that U.S. President Donald Trump could soon e discharged from the hospital. Optimism over fiscal stimulus came into play after upbeat weekend comments from U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who said progress was being made on relief legislation. On the data front, even though service PMI data from US was in line with the forecast but was recorded better in other major economies hence giving some jerk to the metal prices. Market participants will keep an eye on the speech by ECB and Fed Governor later in the day. Updates regarding the health of POTUS and US Presidential election will also be important to watch for. Also investors are awaiting the release of minutes from U.S. Federal Reserve's September meeting tomorrow which could keep the volatility high.
Technically, Gold in tight range at 1885-1925, upside seems limited with immediate hurdle at 1918 and day h4 ma200 stands at 1930.Downside h4 ma50 stands at 1885 giving solid support. Any break either side could give fresh move for downside 1848 which is the trend deciding level, and upside a break 1930 can test 1955/1980 levels. Overall range bound to weak bias can be seen for the day in morning session and can pick up from the low for evening session. Buy on dips is advised overall.
Suggestion: BUY GOLD FROM 1900-1895 SL BELOW 1885 TGT 1917/20 ELSE SELL BELOW 1885 TGT 1875/1868 SL ABV 1905
Gold trading lower on Trump health uncertainityBullion is seen attempting to regain some status above support at $1,882, despite leaving behind channel resistance-turned support, etched from the high $1,703. If buyers maintain a dominant position north of $1,882 this week, are traders likely to seek all-time peaks at $2,075? Upside momentum subsided heading into Wednesday’s session, and continued to establish deep retracements before finally testing resistance at $1,916 on Friday. Note price sold off from here into the close, underlining the possibility of reaching for support at $1,871 sometime this week.Given H4 demand to the left of price appears mostly consumed and daily price recently tested resistance at $1,911, cruising back to H4 support at $1,871 this week is possible. On the flip side, a H4 close above $1,916 may call for H4 resistance at $1,941, in line with weekly price holding above support at $1,882.
Suggestion: BUY GOLD FROM 1888-85 SL BELOW 1874 TGT 1900-1905 ELSE SELL BELOW 1875 SL ABV 1905 TGT 1845
Pound facing stiff resistance, sideways persistsGDP data from UK came in at -19.8 percent against market expectations of -20.4 percent. The latest round of discussions began on Tuesday and reports indicate that negotiators will begin the process to finalize a deal as soon as possible. Prime Minister Boris johnson is considering slapping additional restrictions to curb COVID-19, especially in northern England. The rising number of cases and economic hardship are now joined by political issues.
Technically, 1.29 handle on the H4 timeframe ended the week battered and bruised, encountering a number of whipsaws. Technicians will also observe an ascending channel in play between 1.2806/1.2927. Friday, as you can see, retested the round number as support and held a few pips north of October’s opening value at 1.2925 into the close. Resistance can be seen around the key figure 1.30, closely shadowed by H4 resistance at 1.3009 and daily resistance at 1.3017.
Suggestion: SELL GBPUSD AT CMP 1.2905-10 SL ABV 1.2980 TGT 1.2820/2800 ELSE BUY ABOVE 1.2980 TGT 1.3020/3090 SL BELOW 1.2880
I KNOW WE POSTED A LONG BUT!!!I know we posted a long. On here. Free channel milked the long then took a short. Closed for Friday NFP.
Looking now we have potentially a short position coming up.
Trump got covid, but shared he is doing well, so reduces the chance of uncertainty which then some fundamentals point towards gold going down just like the charts.
Remember just because we post something here. Does not mean we are taking the trade. The market can change very quickly. So we can be long 1 min then short the next. x
$VIX to point #TRUMPThe #VIX is on the verge of renewed volatility.
Following the spike at the end of February, volatility then calmed from mid-March onwards.
Immediately afterwards, we observe the formation of 5 bearish waves ending around mid-August with an exhaustion point S13
A new bullish wave (1) was then triggered and peaked with a SU9. Wave 2 came back to test a solid support (purple line) and is now triggered.
Wave 3 (the most powerful) can now be seen with targets drawn in green. (Corresponds to Fibonacci projection)
Today's recent news of Donald TRUMP's positive test for COVID19 seems to be the trigger signal for wave 3.
The premarket data also seems to be pointing in that direction.
A closure below 21 would invalidate this scenario.
OPEC+ Boosts output put Oil prices downCrude oil plunged below 40$ on opec output news, Daily chart suggesting more weakness ahead till 35.50 levels with a mild support at 36.55 (sept 8th low) Upside resistance lies at 38.80 or 136ma. Almost all timeframes RSI trading at over sold regions giving some caution for fresh sells. Who ever sold at highs can take profit here and wait for the slight rebound till 38 level and take fresh sell for downside said level. Overall sell on rise is advised.
GBPJPY faded positive signs below 135.90A per yesterday outlook it fell to the channel support and gave a breakout at 135.90 and currently trading below that which becomes resistance now. Curently h4 trading with mild bearish bias with upside restricting channel resistance at 135.90 for the downside target 134.20-30 level wit a support at ma50 or 134.98. One can wait for the rise till 135.90 and can sell from there for the said target. Bearish bias will invalidates when prices breaks upside above 137.60 or 200ma. Overall sell on rise is advised for the day.
Gold up, Trump and his wife Melania tests COVID PositiveGold shot up after plunge in Asian session with a low 1889 just below previous resistance 1890 now turned to support. H4 currently trading inside ichimoku suggesting sideways trading going on with a support at ma50 1882.41 with resistance at 1913.05 or 136ma. Stochsastic, RSI and momentum picked up slowly and turned positive which shows upside target 1920 in coming sessions. Bullish view invalidates once it breaks h4 ma50 and close with one full candle. Till then one can be on buy side with every dip for upside said targets.