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Countertrend

BTCUSDT HIGH RISK SHORT OPPORTUNITY ALMOST SAME AS THE SOL TRADELooking at the markets I understand it's an attempted short squeeze but I don't see it going much higher without retracement. You see the wicks are showing exhaustion and this is a very risky play with no confirmation for maximum gain. Potential reward is great but it is risky, especially going against the trend like this. I am monitoring the volume footprints to make a final decision. This is not my normal trade style but I see opportunity I like to take it. Remember your risk tolerance and don't use over 2x leverage if you have to use any at all. Could use an ABC reversal pattern for confirmation but not the best entry. Not necessarily a reversal either more a retracement or counter trend trade. Not financial Advice just a fun idea. A DeDen play basically but a looks promising. Let me know what you think. Is it too risky? Like any trade make it your own and modify it to fit your trade strategy and style and for heavens sake use a SL. Good Luck -NFA KUCOIN:BTCUSDT
Short
by Z3R0-G3N3S1S
EUR/USD – Stuck In A Descending ChannelHi Traders, As we are noticing a bounce in the forex market and as we are thinking the bulls might be coming back to start doing some damage control, we have to remember to zoom out to see what the real trend is. When in doubt, zoom out. On (EUR/USD), In the daily time frame, the price has been stuck in this descending channel since the end of January. Price has been making lower lows and lower highs since the beginning of 2022. Now, if you were a swing trader and managed to catch that double top at the end of January as a short entry and rode this pair down all this way, you would have made yourself 12% over a period of 100 days. That would be incredibly good and there are a lot of traders that have capitalized on these opportunities to go short that the Euro has given us this year. For those of us that have not had any short positions and have only missed every possible entry, well, never fear as the markets always have endless amounts of opportunity. If we jump into the 4-hour time frame, we can see that the bulls are showing their horns at the moment. However, back on the daily, it still looks like we are in bear territory. Now, I like to see a clear bounce off of the support and off of the resistance channel bottom and top to signify and validate a clear channel. Look how many taps we have had on the bottom and the top of the channel. Let's count them out. Four taps on the bottom. Six taps on the top. We can safely say that we are stuck in a channel. I also like to see the price respect the middle zones of the channel. Notice how the price has done so. Every time it touches the middle of the channel, it respects that area and treats it as Support and Resistance on the way down. So, it's all very well and good that we have identified a bearish trend and price stuck in this Daily descending channel. What good is it to us? Well, we have to look for opportunities right? Either to sell or to go long. Right now, there's no point in selling the channel bottom is there? Haha, on the 4-Hour we might see a pattern that we can use to go long. However, on the Daily, we are waiting for the price to close today above the line of resistance I have drawn. Perhaps upon a retracement to that line, we can carry this pair north to the channel top. Please remember that we need to see a reason to buy and by buying, please remember we will be going counter-trend. So our reason has to be solid. We can use the channel top as a target as we can see previously that when the price touched the bottom of the channel at the beginning of previous months, by the end of the month, the price had reached the top of the channel. This is by no means an accurate strategy that one should employ, I'm just pointing interesting things out. Please trade them at your own risk. However, I would just suggest rigorous amounts of back-testing first. One more interesting thing to notice – Volume. Look how it has been sloping downwards along with the channel. The lower price got, the less buying and selling there was and the less amount of power it took to push the price down. Should we be looking for a pop sometime soon? Things that make you go hmmm. On that note, I bid you all a great Tuesday and I will be seeing you all in the next one. The Vortex Trader
Long
by TheVortexTrader
EURUSD-Weekly Market Analysis-Jul22,Wk4The Bullish Deep Crab Pattern on the Daily Chart might not form up, and even if it did, it might not be ideal. However, if you have long based on the counter-trend trade on the Bearish Parallel Channel, congratulation is in place.(check out last week's chart at the bottom of the tradingview link). Alternatively, you can wait for the Bearish Shark Pattern on the 4-hourly timeframe to complete, hitting the first target and waiting for a buying opportunity on a 5-0 pattern setup. In trading, being patient is important.
Long
by RaynLim
TWE.ASX - FUNCHARTS - Does Corn Really Lead Treasury Wines?Note: Funcharts are interesting charts I have found that offer a potentially unique perspective on a stock. Sometimes I’ll throw something out there that you might find controversial or wrong headed. If that’s the case your 2 cents worth is most welcome. The blue line in the graph above is corn (futures) projected forward, now why on earth would corn lead the Treasury Wines share price? While I let you ponder the answer to that the correlation between a projected forward corn price and TWE has been relatively high through history at approximately 30%, simply scroll back through the chart and you can see for yourself that corn has a pretty good track record of leading TWE. Now that we have a projection of sorts the next step would be to conjure up a trade based on this intermarket relationship (if it truly does indeed exist). Let me draw your attention to the system on screen, it is a reverse of the Supertrend STRATEGY (Inputs: ATR Length, 3, Factor 1.5) where it buys the short term dips and sells the short term rallies. An analysis of performance shows that TWE is a very choppy stock. To see performance scroll down to the bottom of the chart and make sure Supertrend STRATEGY is showing. Now the next trick is to view the Performance Summary (not overview) where is breaks down the performance of long trades v short trades. An analysis of long trades shows buying dips was highly profitable with a profit factor above 2 and a high percentage of winning trades. With this evidence the way I would trade TWE is to use Corn, or seasonal analysis or similar to obtain a bullish bias and then look to buy into a pull back on TWE. Once set I would then look to sell the position once the stock reached an overbought level. Stop Losses are a little difficult to set on a mean reversion strategy as theoretically the bigger the pull back the better the opportunity but I would suggest a fairly wide stop level of around 10-15% of the stock price as an emergency stop in case the trades really goes wrong. The question you're obviously asking is should I get long now? In my opinion awaiting a pull back is probably the best strategy, you could use a stochastic or RSI indicator (or any oscillator) for that matter and look to enter during oversold zones and close out during an overbought period.
ASX:TWE
by andrew.gibbs777
AXP - FUNCHARTS - American Express MusingsNote: Funcharts are interesting charts I have found that offer a potentially unique perspective on a stock. Sometimes I’ll throw something out there that you might find controversial or wrong headed. If that’s the case your 2 cents worth is most welcome. So much for stock selection, American Express ( AXP ) was the first stock on my list, even above AAPL , and here I was thinking my list was in Alphabetical order, of which my offsider will be quick to point out that I should be using a Mac, not a PC... moving on, What is the best way to trade American Express based on the Technical numbers? There are two tests I run to determine the best way to trade. Firstly let's run the numbers on long term trends. I used the Supertrend Strategy for this. Adjust the inputs so we use a length of 50, thus smoothing out the ATR volatility and then use an ATR value of 6. In layman's terms this means we are running a 6 x ATR (chandelier) trailing stop. When price closes below the trailing the test generates results for entering short trades, and when price closes above the trailing stop the test generates results for long trades. Refer to the performance report below (and be aware there is a drop down menu on the strategy name to flick between the longer term trend following system and the shorter term mean reversion system). Also, make sure you view the Performance Summary, not Overview, we are specifically looking at the comparison between long and short trades. The first test - Taking Long Trades in line with the trend (when price is above the blue line) made money, 274% to be exact with profitable trades 38% of the time, meaning the win:loss ratio at 2.67 had to be favourable, which it was. But wait going short into a down trend (selling when price is below the red line) lost big! 322% to be exact, so historically you made (slightly) more money buying the big pull backs, as opposed to the breakouts but the drawdown was bigger as you get stuck in losing trades. However, what this is really saying is more money was made from Buy and Hold on AXP (historically), as opposed to breaking the market into an uptrend/downtrend regime. The second test - Let's now look at the short term. Again we will use the Supertrend Strategy, this time we will use 3 periods for the ATR length and 1.5 as the ATR factor, thus looking at very short term trends (sub 30 days). Further I have flipped the signals so it buys into a short term downtrend and sells into a short term uptrend. Use the Performance Summary below (not Overview) to take a look at Long Trades and Short trades, the strategy name is Supertrend STRATEGY (with STRATEGY in uppercase, not lowercase). Here buying the dips made money but not much winning 66% of trades with a profit factor of 1.18 (low) so buying short term dips was sub optimal. Looking at selling short term rallies however was very poor, you lost money. If you went short a rally (in the short term, when the close crossed above the supertrend trailing stop and exiting when it crossed below) the resulting loss was 147%. It therefore made more sense to enter long AXP in line with the short term trend, as opposed to entering early and buying the dip. Nonetheless, the result in the short term wasn't staggering either trading either long or short. Given the results were not great on a daily chart either way, I changed the chart to a weekly chart, after all, if you are following so far, you would have seen that AXP was (slightly) better as a countertrend strategy in the longer term. Running the same strategy as in the second test on a weekly graph the results improve significantly, going long on a dip made 172%, winning 82% of the time. That is a great setup, in fact pretty good as a stand along trade. But if you want to run stops and manage risk, rather than being stuck in losing trades for a long term, you could use the week chart as a setup, and then enter in line with the short term trend on a daily chart using the second tests strategy above... Overall the conclusion is you should use a mean reversion strategy (buy the dips) on American Express with a weekly chart, but use a shorter term trend following system to trade it on a daily chart . Where are we now? Well it just so happens that on a weekly time frame the stock is in buy territory according the the Supertrend STRATEGY and on a daily chart is pretty close to a short term uptrend... Did this make sense, let me know if you have any questions!
NYSE:AXPLong
by andrew.gibbs777
BHP - FUNCHARTS: Should we buy the dip?Note: Funcharts are interesting charts I have found that offer a potentially unique perspective on a stock. Sometimes I’ll throw something out there that you might find controversial or wrong headed. If that’s the case your 2 cents worth is most welcome. BHP has sure been belted, but should we catch a falling knife? - Let's take a basic look at BHP using a very short term strategy. It involves using a strategy called Supertrend Strategy with a 3 period ATR input and an ATR length of 1.5 times. - Firstly, I've flipped it upside down, so we get a buy signal when the trend changes to down and a sell signal when the trend changes to UP - Now, next step, Applying this strategy to BHP, take a look at the performance report for Long Trades and Short Trades using the Performance report TAB. Long Trades Buy the Dip , Short Trades Sell the Rally - Looking at Long Trades, 66% of the time it was profitable to Buy a short term dip on BHP and wait for the trend to change back to up, after which you exited the long position. The profit fact was 1.77. No stop was used in the analysis. - It was also marginally profitable to sell short term uptrends in BHP, meaning trend of less than 30 days didn't persist all that often. - What's the verdict? Buying short term weakness in BHP and selling short term strength has made money in the past. BHP is typically a very choppy stock. I hear what you're saying, you'd like to know if buying the current dip we are in will result in a profit? Based on this analysis BHP will usually stage some sort of rally in a downtrend and you would have make money 66% of the time historically. But looking at external analysis I'm not overly confident just yet. When I'd like to get in. Take a look at the blue histogram on the chart, if it goes below -10, I'd expect the odds to be pretty good for a rally of at least a few days, if not more. That means any further (significant) downside could be an opportunity for a countertrend mean reversion play. It'll be a day where there is blood on the streets for BHP.
ASX:BHPLong
by andrew.gibbs777
AMD Bounce play!?Hey all, If you look a little bit left on AMD's chart, you'd see that the mid-70s level is very strong support for AMD. Considering my bullish thesis on NVDA over the next month(though I think it will eventually go lower), I think playing a bounce through July is the right move to make. I just took a long position on AMD at $76/share, but it is very possible it goes a little lower before the said bounce. I WARN you guys though, that I'm only playing a bounce, and this is not an investment; I do think AMD will eventually go lower. I think a conservative estimate is that AMD will see the mid-high 80's again, though it is POSSIBLE AMD sees the high of the range it is trading in in the high 90s. Best of luck in your guys' trading!
NASDAQ:AMD
by MichaelEugen1
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