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COT

AUJ/JPY 1/25/2021 19:30 (DEMO)AUJ/JPY 1/25/2021 19:30 Fundamental/Sentimental Cot: Correlation with hedge funds seems to be there but very inconsistent. The Japanese Yen is the only one that moves price sometimes preceding, the Australians are a joke and they always lag behind, sometimes far too late. These banks change their positions so frequently, it’s hard to say but some likeliness more longs will enter the market, although previous longs form last week have not affected price. News and Events: CPI report may encourage MM to dump some orders on the 26th and 27th. Technical Time Frame Analysis: Monthly Exhaustion on impulse to the upside Touching a supporting trend line Entering a very strong structural level very weak Monthly promises near shorts Weekly Sellers have not come into the market for quite some time Seems unlikely that buyers could possibly push this any further Consolidation is the most optimistic scenario for buyers Structural level at the top of the 1st impulse is attractive Daily Too much exhaustion Very much oversold, but sellers don't have too much control over price action 4H More exhaustion, buyers can't fight off sellers rn Indicated by H&S as well This is suspiciously easy Indicators: RSI supports shorts 100% Entry Order: Market Sell Position: 0.02, 5000USD RR: 3.46
Short
by Mike_McCarthy
1
GBP/JPY 1/22/2021 2:05 (DEMO)GBP/JPY 1/22/2021 2:05 NO TRADE Fundamental/Sentimental Cot: Price action is mostly influenced by funds coming from the Japanese Yen but price action reacts loosely, delays and such. Maybe a few longs are still entering the market but funds could have easily changed directions. Longs followed by shorts possible News and Events: No upcoming events for the expected life span of the trade that should affect anything. Technical Time Frame Analysis: Monthly: Have a squeeze, conflict between buyers and sellers, could be mistaken for an uptrend for sure. Candles indicate dying buyers market. Weekly: At a critical zone, pressured by the nearing trend line, buyers struggling to push up. Daily: Buyers have power moves, impulses but they’re being stretched thin. 4H: A lot of rejections, but buyers are trying to push. Indicators: RSI is not helping very much, very neutral Entry Order: None Position: None RR: None NOTE: Very little to go off of today, will wait for price to reach that critical zone and react accordingly. I don't like to force trades
by Mike_McCarthy
2
EURNZD - 11-15 Jan Week trade Plan FX:EURNZD This is my 11-15 Jan 21 Week trade Plan for EURNZD . Previous Month : Bearish Previous Week : Bearish Daily : Bearish 4H : Bearish With EURNZD ended last week with bearish close below 1.6980 confirming the bearish momentum, I'm expecting further continuation to the down side with cautious as currently we are at HTF support zone that may hold a bit EURNZD from the down move. Also COT Report and Seasonality are showing that NZD is currently strong, so expectation for the bearish momentum continuation is viable. I'd highlighted 2 scenarios for Shorts and Longs with No Trade Zone.
by Amr_Sadek
EURNZD - 4 - 8 Jan Week trade opportunities for referenceThis is a summary of the trade opportunities during this week according to my Trade Rules: 1- Momentum 2- HTF close with momentum direction 3- 1H close above / below previous candle in momentum direction 4- Targets for TP points from Week Trade Plan FX:EURNZD Jan Week 4 - 8 Previous momentum: Bearish Week Close: Bearish Range: 284 pip - With last week failure to sustain the bullish momentum above the 1.7180 and rejection confirmation at 1.7220, EURNZD ended last week bearish at Support zone at 1.6950/80. - EURNZD started this week with retracement to the next resistance zone 1.7080/1.7100 (Expected as per the weekly trade plan posted) and rejection confirmed at the zone for bearish continuation and retest of the support zone at 1.6950/80 TP1 and break to test 1.6880 TP2 and 1.6780 TP3. - The COT report and Seasonality of NZD currency supported the bearish momentum to reach TP2 and treated any rise as opportunity for Shorts. - Highlighted 3 opportunities for Short according to my rule of having Momentum and 1H close in my direction and as per my Weekly Plan. - Check 4H TF you will find that 4H candle close is Bearish and closing below previous candle. Weekly plan: Jan 5 Update: Jan 6 Update: Jan 8 Update:
by Amr_Sadek
EURUSD ABCD Sell Daily Hello All, it has been quite sometime since I posted, in part to my employer putting a proxy block on TradingView. I'm not a full time trader yet as I am still working on my Risk Management skills. But as far as strategy my harmonic stance is pretty evident from my previous posts. Anyway, I have been saying "BUY" the Euro since June or July of 2020 even though my technicals have been saying sell, but the COT has been saying buy. Now we are seeing something every interesting happening on the COT. Back in June or July we had a massive 20,000 order sell by the Commercials, which opens a lot of liquidity in the market even on the most traded pair in the world. COT traders know to fade the Commercials as they open trades expecting to lose them, so they can hedge their profits. Either way taking it slow, trading wise, after the holidays is a wise idea, as the markets were dry (as always around the holidays). The Open Interest was around 24XX orders and the majority were Large Speculators attempting to drive prices higher. Now, on the chart we have a simple ABCD pattern. The ABCD Pattern is the very essence of Buy Low and Sell High which is what Scott Carney says in one of his books. So, the ABCD pattern completes in a resistance area that has not been touched since March of 2018. Which happens to be the 1.24XXX area. PA is now entering the Resistance area, so on the lower time frames I would expect to see some crazy charts. I believe PA will complete the ABCD pattern and then we could see some drop in price. I would only expect to book a .382 profit before PA heads to the upside again. I think the move down will be profit taking and not a true shift in direction.
Short
by ARegularGuy
Eur/Usd Bearish 80 Pips towards 1.17300 LevelSelf Explanatory ------> Weekly and Daily Price in a consolidation and price is above the upper range at resistance level. also a point of control based on previous months ------> H4 and H1 market Structure has confirmed a shift to downside and price is testing the weekly resistance level Overall in h1 timeframe we are forming a nice bearish flag pattern. price in now testing the broken flag as resistance for a continuation to downside. Risk Management PLan 1. The setup give nice risk to reward of 1;2 2. Our entry is based on multiple confluence ( pattern, market structure,fib level and SNR level) 3. Be patience and wait for london session to open and see how this roll towards the new york session 4. Trades become invalid if the price crosses 1.18600 level. we could expect a fakeout based fundamental of European Central Bank so have an eye on that today Overall everything looks solid Follow me for more highly anticipated setup!!!
Short
by ShinForex1
2
Corn Short, Based on COT data and TAZC1! Commercial accounts are currently net short on corn futures contracts (-355k contracts), while as noncommercial accounts aka, Retail traders, are net long (+411k contracts). These two positions are at extreme polarized ends of the play. Usually commercials tend to be net short on any asset but its the extremes one should keep an eye on. Corn is currently at a basing pattern, with a previous impulsive move to the downside. Entering at a base is relatively risky, since the pattern can either turn into a drop base drop or a drop base rally pattern. So one can play this two ways, enter short at the base with a tight SL so if an impulsive move to the upside were to occur, you will stop out with minimal damage. Or, wait for the pattern to play out and if the pattern is a drop base rally, then short a potential double top. The play I am making is short at the base of this pattern with a SL at 407'5. Targets for the short are - 0.5 retracement - 0.618 retracement - 0.786 retracement - 305'4 I will be taking profits at each target, with the last target being a runner position.
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by UnknownUnicorn1946597
DXY (Dollar) Strength or continuation of fade?TVC:DXY Straight to the point, Dealers are accumulating DXY, going long, extreme long 90%+, while as speculators (large spec/small spec aka RETAIL traders) are extreme short. Clearly we are within a downtrend for DXY, with a potential bear flag in the making. Yet, with the knowledge of dealers being extremely long on the dollar, this could be a pattern of accumulation. Which would set off a chain of short squeezes to make retail lose money (as always). Right now, it looks like DXY has found a base and has created 2 higher lows from the previous low, which is a bullish sign. The red dotted lines indicate an area of supply where there are sellers waiting with positions. I am NEUTRAL currently because I want to see either a breakout of the current downtrend line or a breakdown at the downtrend line. If its a short, short to the lowest white line. If its a breakout, wait for a retest of the downtrend line and long to the supply zone. Since it is near the election and end of Q3 going into Q4, most market participants want to go risk off and go full cash. TLDR: Dealers extreme long on the dollar = DOWNY EQUITIES
TVC:DXY
by UnknownUnicorn1946597
AUD/USDAUD Last week AUD made gains with a rising volume, but the price range is still in a neutral zone. For the time being, no trade is recommended. If the price breaks the channel upward, it has two resistance zones. - Sell zone 1, as it is the start of the sell-off 21st September - Strong resistance - Sell zone 2, a two-year peak - Stronger resistance - Sell zone 3, every price above the top - Strongest resistance On these zones, we need to see a lot of supply as sell orders should be allocated based on them. Remember, supply and demand appear on the opening hours of London and New York, so don't trade on any sign of weakness. COT - Noncommercial positions have decreased both, long (-2,7%) and short (-5,6%), as long contracts remain more than short with 7K more. - Long commercial positions have decreased by 1,8% to 44K, as the short have increased by 1,6% to 60K
CME:6A1!
by The_Rich_Bull
EURCHF - NEXT MOVE - COT REPORT - SEASONAL Hello, Traders! We are currently looking for a nice push to the downside from EURCHF. As risk leaves the market once again we can see an Increase in Long orders for CHF as investors move their money into safe bonds and low-interest currencies such as the CHF/JPY. We can also see short orders being added for the EUR over the last two weeks showing a possible change in the overall direction and strength for this currency. Seasonal data shows a decrease in value during the month of October which is expected from the EUR. However, we have yet to see this!
Short
by CQRFX
USDCAD - Buy BiasI am extremely interested in buys on most XXXCAD pairs but USDCAD in particular. After analyzing the DXY I have a strong feeling that bullish pressure is imminent. I would like to see a pullback into the key area marked followed by significant rejection before I consider my buy position. We need to ensure we see signs of rejection because if we don't we could simply be witnessing a liquidity grab from sellers before the bearish trend continues. COT Data - 79% Long IG Client Sentiment Data - 79% Long
Long
by AlkalineFX
1
GBPJPY - Get that Wick EntryWe managed to pull off an amazing stunt last week with that lovely wick entry on GJ, we are now looking for more potential buying opportunities. I have marked out a zone in which I think price will tap into before continuing to the upside, you may want to consider setting some orders at that region if it fits your analysis. GBP is proving to be very tough to trade recently giving us a yo-yo of price action movement so make sure you tread carefully when trading it. COT Data - 53% Short IG Client Sentiment - 53% Long
Long
by AlkalineFX