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COT

Gold: Strong bullish sentiment in the hobby trader communityLots of big bulls now in the retail community. Bad sign. Here are the areas with buyers: Notice the small fish were net short at the bottom. Pathetic. First they think the "bull market is back" inside of a drawn out distribution pattern. Second they "have strong hands" and "DCA average down" catching falling knives. Third they get wiped out. Fourth they "learn their lesson" and angrilly short the bottom. Fifth they attempt to slit their wrists. And swear they'll never trade again. I am not making this up man. You can see the volumes for yourself. 🤣 The market really has this ability to find anyone breaking point and make them go "I am done. I can't take anymore." Regardless of the price, regarless of any rational consideration. They'll sell at the good support they dreamt of buying 1 year ago and they'll say "I know but I don't care". Alot of people are thinking "the pullbacks will be smaller than you expect you will keep chasing it and not be able to buy" and will chase the price and so same as 2008. It will last forever and go back and forth. Maybe the USD could get strong in the meantime. How many weeks of months it will take I do not know. But the area I am interest in is around 1700. There are virtually no buyers before 1800! And as we have seen both large speculators and hedgers have shown no interest for these prices. Let all the struggling gambling small retail traders that think they are the new George Soros go try and be heros that think they can outsmart the whole market. There probably are noobs getting all excited that think this 1 buy will turn them into Soros or Jim Rogers and they have to rush and cannot afford to miss. Sure, some hedge funds might start finally showing interest from now one, but it will be like a snowball, and they won't start putting their feet in the water just because Berkshire bought a few gold stocks. Not like "don't worry the cavalry is here" and just solo charge head first all alone and save the day. I am not interested in doing business if I do not have numerical superiority on my side. That simple. I choose the day of the battle (well within what the market decides for me). I choose who I fight with. I choose how much I risk. It's all me. We will fight on my terms, where I want, and when I want. And if I say retreat we retreat. Hard to lose that way xd Almost feels like cheating. Absolute strategic superiority. Use all information available and pick your battles. And one last point, just because I think gold will take a big plunge does not mean I am getting all excited and want to short it. Corrections are often noise. I do not conduct business into noise.
TVC:GOLDShort
by MrRenev
12
EUR/ USD Here on the Euro we have a 222 pattern that fits due to the 3% tolerance outlined in the Harmonic Trading Volume 3 book Scott Carney published in 2016 (I THINK). The white line is the HOP Level for the Pattern! We have a classic Bullish Flag Pattern that has formed on the Daily chart and there is about 300 pips from PA now to the HOP Level. If PA closes above the trend line i will be entering the trade to take the trade to the HOP Level. **Reasoning Later** The HOP Level is the make or break for any pattern and i do expect this pattern to give us atleast a T1 setup. Reasoning for the entry... The Euro has been a strong buy for the past couple of weeks with the Commercials selling decent amount of shares and the Non-Commercials buying the shaes up driving the Euro Higher. I do see the euro driving this pair higher as more and more traders are shorting the pair thinking we have hit the ceiling and yet the paradox continues because we think it cant go higher and it does. and the COT suggests it is. And in combination with that the DXY is finally bearish on the COT and the dollar is about to fall some more with the Commercials and Non-Commercials finally switching sides. The Commercials are buying shares off the non-Commercials and the Non-Commercials are selling which is causing the dollar to sink. which will cause this pair to easily go higher. I suspect this pair to make it to the HOP level by the end of the week and reverse to a Type One set up off the HOP making the move the correction in the trend and continue higher. it is very possible for this pair to exceed the HOP and just keep moving higher. only time will tell!
Long
by ARegularGuy
1
▲ VIDEO: BTC • Bitcoin • Chart, COT, Futures, OptionsCheck video for my latest thoughts ———————————————— ▲ DELTA7™ Trend Score ▲ D aily • possible full retrace to get those stops and degen over-leveraged traders. retrace possible back to 9.1 (possible invalidation closing bellow 9.0) ▲ W weekly • weekly seem to regain direction targets around 9.5-10k next ▲ M onthly • uptrend perhaps heading towards 13k ————————————————
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by D7R
1
Gold - significant divergenceThe price of gold has reached the highest levels since 2011. However, the large speculators seem to be trimming their net long positions creating a significant divergence. Divergence in which the price has been reaching new highs while the net long positions have been falling. This may suggest that the market important market participants do not believe in such a strong upward trend. The nearest resistance which could be tested is set by the line drawn through the tops. The nearest potential support may be located at 1691 USD. ________ Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd. Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. 79% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
COMEX:GC1!
by Daniel_Kostecki
COT INDEX - POSSIBLE BOTTOMThe timing of commercials players trading Gasoline RBOB can be described as superb, with just one wrong signal since 2007. The COT Index possible bottom signal triggered this week, but before we jump in the trade there are some considerations of the actual scenario that need to be taken into account during our decision to take or not the trade. I just read two articles one from the eternal bear ZeroHedge and another one from WSJ, and while 99.99% of traders and analysts would believe this is super bearish Oil. Such interpretation in the vacuum can lead to inaccurate conclusions. OPEC made a huge move with a record production cut to offset the demand destruction, and this can happen again. The ease in oil cuts is because they are anticipating demand recovery. This is the point where the confusion is made. There is a HUGE difference between demand and consumption. The former refers to the amount of a good that will be used at any given price level, and with supply determines the price, while the latter is the amount of a good used and its determined by the price. An increase in demand means that more will be consumed at any given price level. Factors that might affect demand include disposable income, consumer tastes, and the price of substitute goods but, by definition not price. (Schwager & Etzkorn, 2017) So the increase in production does not mean more of the product will flood the markets and pressure price down. The expectation is more consumption is ahead of us. Another mistake that I see when taking this event of the increase in the output in production as bearish is the lack of perspective. What we saw months ago as a RECORD production cut, this increase is a drop in a bucket and has all elements to get unnoticed by the markets, in fact, it can have the opposite effect because it’s adding positive expectations of world economies recovery. I am holding a BULLISH view on Gasoline RBOB. Assets with BIG correlation with GASOLINE Apache Corp NASDAQ:APA Platinum NYMEX-PL1! Avnet, Inc. NASDAQ:AVT Precision Drilling Corp NYSE:PDS Read the Full Report
NYMEX:RB1!Long
by leoohermoso
The Euro Index (EXY) Here on the Euro Index we have a 222 pattern that formed. what i like to see is that this pattern lines up with the COT report that was released Monday due to July 4th (United States Birthday :D 'merica) being observed on July 3rd. in the circles we have three potential bearish star patterns printing on the PRZ which is a resistance level. depending on how today closes! The COT shows the same thing. this is the first time we have seen some profit taking and contract deliveries by both the commercials and non-commercials. The Commercials delivered about 14k contracts while the non-commercials took profit on about 10k orders. the net data is as follows: Commercials: Current = (147,128)// Previous= (162,540) Non-Coms: Current= 98, 955// Previous= 118,448
TVC:EXYShort
by ARegularGuy
EURUSD ShortFrom the latest EURFX COT report we can see that there is an increase in the short contracts since last week. Till last week we were at record numbers for long contract positions, so a change in the direction is very likely to happen soon. Now: The price tried to break above the monthly critical area. There are 2 scenarios: 1. The most likely one to happen is to see a downside move towards the 1.12232 mark. Critical zones to watch out for are the 1.12863 where we can see a sup/res zone + the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement and the second trendline as well. A good entry may be the neckline at the 1.13050 mark. It will also confirm the final stage of the current 1h “M” formation. 2. If the price goes above the highs from yesterday a move towards the upper highs of the monthly critical is a possibility. Happy Trading!
Short
by SigmaTrading
GBP/ JPY (Pound/ Yen) Here on the Pound Yen we have a Nice Gartley Pattern that is formed. The PRZ has been tested and now we are waiting for entry. *** Insert Personal aside here>>> Now, Harmonics gets a lot of slack from the trading community for various reasons, but i still think @ScottCarney is one of the greatest Market Technicians still alive. He was able to study previous writings from W.D. Gann (still one of the greatest ever with one of the greatest track records ever with a year of 490 something trades taken and 490 something trades won like a 2% loss ratio) Elliot, and other great technicians, and create a trading methodology that is pretty accurate if done correctly and has also created much controversy too. I do recognize other systems work as well but Harmonics is what works for ME just makes sense to me.*** Now with every methodology a trade can go in one of three ways up, down, sideways. This pattern has shown us that the PRZ is valid due to the consolidation so we know that the level is valid. The red box is a large candle and our current resistance zone with the Green Zone as our support. I am waiting for the right candle pattern or formation for entry and wil check the oscillators for confirmation. Based on the COT the pound is expected to weaken so if this pattern does present an oppritunity for entry at the first sign of weakness get your pips and run!
Long
by ARegularGuy
GBP/ CAD (Cable/ Loonie) Here on the Pound Cad we have a gorgeous Bat pattern. Right now we See PA respecting the PRZ by throwing Indecesion Candles. Now, whether the pattern works in our favor is a different story but what we do know is the level is valid as PA raced into the PRZ and is now tangled up. im honestly looking for this Current Candle to close as a Bullish Spinning Top or Doji to justify an enterance. Based on the oscillators at the bottom of the screen im waiting for those too. but more emphasis on PA! Will Update as time draws closer to entry!
Long
by ARegularGuy
1
EUR/GBPhere on the Euro/ Pound (EUR/ GBP) we have a nice crab pattern i drew out the other day (Sunday I think) and i have been waiting to enter the trade and missed my opportunity for the type 1 move so now im waiting for the T2 move. the trade is currently 20-ish pips in profit for the T1 setup! the yellow line is the HOP for this pattern. based on the COT report once this trade looks like its reversing take your pips and get out. the COT suggest that the Euro is to move up and the pound is to move down. So, this is a contrarian trade and to be managed automatically due to the large orders for both pairs based on the COT.
Short
by ARegularGuy
1
$YM_S (E-Mini DJI) inspirated by bottomcatcher$YM1 COT on E-MIni DJI shows recent Commercials(Prod/User) traders massive long indexes. I could only get the COT data back to 2010, since then it was only 5 times when Prod/User traders went long $YM_F. 2010 June, 2011 Sep, 2015 Sep, 2016 Feb, and now. You can see that when DJI is below 200 weekly MA, Prod/User traders long indexes and, above that they short indexes. Very simple. The only difference this time is, DJI is above 200 weekly MA but they still hold long massively. Fed QE infinity let them buy equities at least in the MT timeframe.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by KaibaraYuzan
EXY (Euro Index) Technical and COT Analysis Here on the EXY The Euro Index we have the daily and weekly outlook. Now, the euro is playing off a 222 pattern off the Daily chart and the price level is quite significant. Now, for those who have been looking at my charts for quite sometime you will know i hate oscilitaors but until i get candlestick charting down a bit better i use them as a form of confirmation. So, with all being said on both the weekly and daily we have bearish signals. So, on the weekly ***insert personal aside here>>> I have been doing a lot of reading based on Steve Nison's work on Candlestick charting. I own his first book and found his second and his Candle Stick Chart Course book with the help from a friend on here TradingView. I am re-reading all his books to refresh my memory or learing something new*** we have a large resistance area that was made up by two weeks of strong selling. Once PA made it near the top of the resistance area PA started to break down. We know have a few weeks now of indecesion candles with this past week trowing a doji candle. From a techinical standpoint I am expecting price to dip down to the red line which is an 88 candle swing point. So, if this coming week is a bearish one then expect more bearish sentiment until we hit the pending orders of the Big Players having their buy orders near or in a support area indicated on the COT Report (which i will discuss in a bit) Next, on the Daily chart we have a 222 Pattern that has completed and is still in play. it has completed its T1 setup so we can either see more downward movement to the target 2 or a retrace to the PRZ and then a push to the lowside for Target 2 to be hit. Seeing the indication of the weekly Candles i am epecting more downside rather than up! For the COT Data... This is reason i think we havent hit the pending orders of the Big Players, we have for the past few weeks seen the Commercials Increase their shorts but pice is still moving down. Now, for my COT fans Commercials go aganst the trend to lock in a particular rate or price to protect their physical profit made from day to day business. The commercial Shorts have increased their positions by 10k orders and the net data will be displayed later. The non-commercials are still buying from the Commercials but were not seeing any movement to support these numbers. Now, Unless we are seeing some major COT Manipulation by opening orders and quicly closing them before they get filled is one way, or the side im willing to say is more likely is that we havent filled the orders yet and price is still drifting aimlessly. I assume once we start filling these orders we will see some major volatility and start moving in the right direction which would support more downward movement for a cheaper price before we go up COT Net Data Commercials: Current (162,540) // Previous (155,035) Non-Commercials: Current = 118,448 // Previous = 117,132 Again, i think we will see some downturn based on the techincals then we will hit the pendings of the Non-Commercials in a support zone and then off to the races! So at the moment short then a major support level hit Pendings filled and then we move up for a... w h i l e!
TVC:EXYShort
by ARegularGuy
GBP/ AUD (Cable Aussie) Here on the Cable Aussie we have two patterns one i drew and another one from the Software. What im looking for is this current 4 hour candle to close as an engulfing candle at the very minimum a piercing pattern. I will also be looking for the oscillator confirmation. the pattern is a butterfly pattern i have drawn and i think the software picked up either a bat or 222 pattern. Now, on the COT the Pound is still controlled by the commercials buying it but they are stepping closer and closer to the Zero Line every week which a big ship like the Pound takes a long time to turn around. the Non-Commercials are almost to the Zero Line and are eager to finally drive the Cable Up. The Euro is a strong buy and i have been suspecting the Pound to follow. Since the Switch has yet to occur proper R2R should be used. but since both sides are stepping closer to the Zero Line the pound should start to rise early as the Non-Commercials start buying it up. The Aussie is still a sell but this week both commercials and non-commercials have taken profit or delivered on contracts. I do feel this pair will be subjective to strong swings this coming week as which ever side decides to open a position will cause the pair to move that way if filled. other than that i do think the AUD will be a slow moving pair this week and future weeks to come until there is a definitive move in one direction or the other.
Long
by ARegularGuy
EXY (Euro Index) Euro Here on the Euro Index we have a Gartley Pattern that has completed and completed a T1 set up! I think we are going to see PA retrace into the PRZ. From a techinical standpoint. Now on to the COT Data. The COT indicates that the Euro is still a strong buy! The big players are still increasing their positions fueling the trend up on the Euro. Selling the Euro long term right no is probably not the most adviseable. This does not surprise me as the DXY just flipped to a bearish market and the Euro is driving higher. the Euro makes up 50-ish% of the DXY. the follwong is the COT net Data: Commercials: Current== (155k) // previous== (133k) Non-Coms: Current== 117k // previous== 95, 649 I have been slow posting recently becasue as some might have seen i have been saying i have wanted to add fundamentals to my trading and i had a friend of mine here on trading view provide some good reading material on fundamentals. Once i finally finish up some of my readings i will be more active!
TVC:EXYLong
by ARegularGuy
1