Expect Costco to open on a good noteThe Megalodon Indicators are signifying a strong buy come market open for Costco! This indicator is incredibly accurate! If you'd like to know how to try it out for yourself, just send me a message!
Costco
COSTCO... another Amazon's victim? Last reporting data was ok, net sales for the quarter increased 10.8 percent, to $32.28 billion from $29.13 billion last year. Net sales for the first 24 weeks of fiscal 2018 increased 12.0 percent, to $63.40 billion from $56.60 billion last year.
The Company gained an incremental sales day in the quarter due to the shift of Thanksgiving, however pre-Thanksgiving and Black Friday holiday weekend sales fell in the first quarter this year, versus the second quarter last year. This negatively impacted this year’s second quarter sales by approximately 1.4% in the U.S., and slightly less worldwide and negatively impacted E-commerce sales by approximately 7-8%.
However, my expectation for COST is around $220.00, even after rose $170 per share at the end of 2018.
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COST Inverted H&SNot real bullish on Costco, but charts don't lie. Inverted H&S like the rest of retail (see XRT).
Long on calls for a day.
COST: Sell Short Potential but Strong Support at 200The Daily Chart of COSTCO Stock shows that there is some sell short potential on the short-term trend IF the stock breaks to the downside below the low of around 216. At this time, it appears that is more likely given the lack of large lot buyers in the chart patterns. Support levels show the point gain potential moving down from the current range-bound pattern.
However, COST is less likely to collapse all the way down to 50% from its all-time high. Why? Because it was never speculated to extreme highs, far from a strong support level. The furthest it can go before reaching strong support is around 200 for a bounce and 190 for serious support and risk of rebound price action.
Costco long when stochastic confirmsLooking at stochastic, Costco is out of overbought area. When stoch will turn up, then it is moment to buy
COST: High Risk for Long Term BuyConsidering your risk is something that all investors and traders should do before trading or investing in any stock. Often when a stock displays this much risk on the long- and intermediate-term time frames, it also warns of risk for short-term trading as well. The Weekly Chart provides better perspective of the risk of buying the stock at this new all-time high price. There is no support nearby. See how many points are at risk if a correction occurs?
Trade Wisely,
Martha Stokes, CMT
Costco ascending wedge bearishLooks like a blow off top here! I give it from here to $250 as the tap out point for longers.
Costco ascending wedge is bearish
Price is on resistance of ascending wedge
Price candle body far outside daily upper bollinger band
Stalking for a crash. Good traders stalk 90% of the time and trade only 10% of time. Quote me. :) :)
In this screencast I run through several superhot equities on the monthly time frame.
The higher time frames are often the cause of surprises for people' on 15min - 1H time frames.
Then the end of the screencast I look at the VIX on the 2 hour time frame for signs of nervousness.
I suspect - not predict that something big is coming.
Looks like a run maybe coming soonI like this little stock because my dog loves the dog bed he just got from Costco made by CENT
$COST Head and shoulders setting up?$COST on the intra day charts is setting up what appears to be a head and shoulders pattern. The measured move would take price back to short term support. My stop loss for the short will be the 190 breakout level. Will be watching for nasdaq weakness in the days to come to initiate the trade. Thanks for viewing and enjoy!
October 5 Earnings: Costco- Will eCommerce Ware Off Competition?Costco reports on Thursday, October 5th after the closing bell.
Heading into earnings, the company has a fairly straight forward R/R portfolio:
- Costco enjoys being a major retailer in the US with a wide array of products in multiple markets.
- The company's eCommerce capabilities are picking up steam and contributing meaningfully to revenue. eCommerce global expansion is aiding sales growth.
- Costco's membership club is expanding and drawing in customers in the US and globally.
- The overall market is a fierce competitive one, with giants like Wal-Mart $WMT and Target $TGT, among others, fighting for every consumer.
- Consumer spending, although picking up from highs, remains at a sluggish growth rate, hurting industry prospects.
I believe the pros will outweigh the cons for the expected quarter and Costco will beat expectations.
Starting Costco with a $178.00 Price Target for the post-earnings price action.
86% probability trade on Costco (Ratio Spread)
After last earnings Costco had a 14% down move. If we take into consideration last year, we have a CVPOC at around $150 Price, and in the shorter term the VPOC is around $167 (2017). That means that those prices are the ones that have traded the most and considered fair for the stock.
With an IV Rank at 67 we can sell some premium, so given the down move I sold a 3:1 Ratio spread for $1.66.
This gives us a max profit of $665 at the $150 level and if it stays above $155 price we would be making $166 at expiration.
Our probabilities of profit are very high at 86%
The trade:
Sell (3) AUG18 155 PUT
Buy (1) AUG18 150 PUT
Buy This Costco (COST) Dip Before It Shoots UpCostco has been in an overexuberant decline since news of the Amazon and Whole Foods merger. Fortunately, this decline in the stock has brought it in-line with recent support levels and should begin to move upward once again. The stock has been in a consistent bullish trend since 2010. The recent decline seems to be part of the natural cycle for Costco. This cycle points upward next and also has other factors correlating to this move. On multiple occasions through the long bull trend, three of the technical indicators discussed below have been at similar levels in which they are now. These instances have resulted in gains for the stock. I have also conducted further analysis based on other historical information and readings that confirm a pending gain for Costco which are laid out below.
When we look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 30.7171. RSI tends to determine trends, momentum, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is moving upward from recent oversold levels.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.7644 and the negative is at 1.1780. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The positive and negative levels have been moving in a manner consistent with upward movement for the stock The stock and indicators had been bearish for the past three weeks, but that trend is starting to end.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 5.0897 and D value is 6.4898. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic well oversold and the stock should begin to move upward soon.
I have created an algorithm (called the SAG gauge) which signals when stocks are truly overbought and oversold. The algorithm indicates when a particular stock meets multiple criteria culminating in an oversold or overbought signal. That signal will occur within a few trading days after the stock has begun to move upward. Recognizing this movement and pending signal can increase gains by entering early.
Upon back-testing this indicator, it has signaled oversold status 25 times dating back to 1986. The stock always gains at least 0.75% over the following 35 trading days after the indicator date. Eighty percent of the time the stock gains at least 8.75% and seventy percent of the time gains 9%.
Since 1998, this stock always gains a minimum of 1.76% when the RSI, positive and negative VI are simultaneously at their current level and moving in their current direction. This additional study requires the stochastic at the bottom of the chart above to be oversold as it is today too. Ten similar instances were found. The median move is 15.20% over 20 trading days. The last two times the stock bounced off its support line (which it did on July 11), the stock has achieved a minimum gain of 8.30% over the following 22 trading days.
Three of the ten instances we just covered occurred at the same time or within days of an oversold signal on the SAG gauge. These instances resulted in a minimal gain of 6.10% and median of 16.25%.
Considering the RSI, VI, stochastic levels, SAG gauge and historical similarities, the stock should see upward movement over the short to intermediate time period. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the SAG gauge, the stock could gain at least 6% over the next 35 trading days if not sooner.
COSTCO WEEKLY REVIEWLarge knee-jerk selloff + July 4th weekend coming up + historical precedence = good entry opportunity
Bullish On Costco, But Earnings FirstOn May 17, Costco bounced off of its reoccurring support level. This has been solid support since August 2015. Costco also has earnings in focus this week. The estimated EPS is nearly where it was during the previous quarter's EPS which was a massive miss. A similar massive miss this time around will yield the analysis contained herein almost worthless. However, positive earnings and forecasts should easily meet the projection in this article.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 47.4805. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is relatively neutral and it could go any direction.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 11.2060. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock has been moving down for the past two weeks.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.9097 and the negative is at 0.9696. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. Currently the negative and positive indicators are moving closer together, with the positive moving up. With continued upward movement of this indicator the stock will go with it.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 16.3099 and D value is 9.6028. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is currently oversold and should move up soon.
Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the upside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could gain at least 3.33% over the next 19 trading days if not sooner. The major hurdle for this movement will be from the earnings released this week.
COST: Buy out of the money calls for a monthWe have a pretty low risk trade here. You can look to buy way out of the money calls for dirt cheap after the earnings report for $COST. Upside is crystal clear. Even though this stock isn't such a good value pick, as say, $KSS (which has been nothing short of amazing so far), it's still a good contender to catch up to the retail rally it's been lagging.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
WAL-MART plungin nextWMT Wal-Mart made their high in 2015 and ever since it's going down. More problems will surface with this company as more days pass by. But there are only 3 Green support lines @ work 1997, 1987, 1982. Probably the next good support is area of $50-$45. Then when it breaks it is possible to re-visit $5 area for ultimate buy zone. With the time line analysis it may take some time to plunge around 2024 or before.
Retail markets all around the US are doing almost the same though.
Costco COST update6 days ago I posted on a short trade on COST - Here is the update Target 1 hit. As we are in the blue zone now I will watch the price action carefully but would like to think the next target of 144.72 is achievable also. We'll see :)
Costco ( COST ) Timing & level very close. Another leg down?I like it when price recognises my predictive trend lines, drawn when the high was put in on August 15th. Even better when it has been acting as a resistance angle. The black dashed vertical line here represents time. It's not telling me direction but suggests that's when another bout of momentum should kick in when price reaches it. The blue box is where I would expect price to reach before COST can take a breather and then think about a move up from there. As price has not dipped to the blue box yet, I'd prefer a short stock or long PUT from this level with targets at the red horizontal lines.
Happy Mother's Day - A Look At Retail StocksHappy Mothers Day!! To all of you who give birth to our children, you deserve so much more than just one day a year...
Now don't take this wrong but when I think of the women in my life they all have one thing in common - Shopping! In the best way possible, they all love to shop or have accepted the shopping "chore" as I refer to it. Shopping is a HUGE chore in my opinion. Not one that I would like to take on as many women have.
Many teach the "invest in what you know & understand" lesson. Even if you are not the one out there shopping, you know where the important women in your life shop. Places like Costco, Macy's, Target, TJ Max, Ross, Kohls, Lulu Lemon, etc. Can I just say I LOVE yoga pants! Oops. Sorry. That was off topic... If women really like going there to shop, you may be looking at a good investment.
Pull up the charts for the stores I have listed above and any other store that you know is a frequent destination for the women in your life. My guess is you will find some good investing opportunities.
You are looking at a WEEKLY chart of Costco (Cost). Back in 2008 & 2009 the stock was in a downtrend. But once there was a weekly close above the downtrend line back in early 2009, the stock never looked back. You could have entered a long position at around $45 per share six years ago. On average you could have made about 41% per year since then.
In August of 2010 the buying picked up. You can see the beginning of UT 2. And that uptrend line lasted until the middle of 2014. At that point is where UT 3 began. The stock is currently way above UT 3 and coming down. It may stop at the first of second horizontal lines. It may drop to UT 3. Or it could drop to UT 2. No one really knows.
The one thing I will tell you is when there is a weekly close above the red DT line, you should look at buying again. I would say you have a high probability, at that point, of doing just fine. Why not buy now? Well mostly because the stock is following a downtrend line at the moment.
There is one other thing I would like to point out. If you plot the 8, 21, 50, 100, 150, and 200 exponential moving averages you will see that they are stacked in the proper order. Just like they should be for a long investment.
If you have a company you want me to chart for you just ask me in the comments section of this idea. Have a great day!
