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COST

USDCAD, Cypher+inside dayThis page is all about inside bars and harmonic patterns, and I got 1 potential trade that is in line with 2 of the strategy! USDCAD completed a huge Cypher pattern, while like what I said on COST (another harmonic + inside day breakout combination yesterday), I believe harmonic pattern needs to go with reversal/retracement sign rather than just put an anti-trend limit order. here I got the inside day and if it's able to break to the upside, I am turning a little bit bullish on USDCAD and will find some smaller time frame trades.
Long
by Trader_Joe_Lee
2
Buy This Costco (COST) Dip Before It Shoots UpCostco has been in an overexuberant decline since news of the Amazon and Whole Foods merger. Fortunately, this decline in the stock has brought it in-line with recent support levels and should begin to move upward once again. The stock has been in a consistent bullish trend since 2010. The recent decline seems to be part of the natural cycle for Costco. This cycle points upward next and also has other factors correlating to this move. On multiple occasions through the long bull trend, three of the technical indicators discussed below have been at similar levels in which they are now. These instances have resulted in gains for the stock. I have also conducted further analysis based on other historical information and readings that confirm a pending gain for Costco which are laid out below. When we look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 30.7171. RSI tends to determine trends, momentum, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is moving upward from recent oversold levels. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.7644 and the negative is at 1.1780. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The positive and negative levels have been moving in a manner consistent with upward movement for the stock The stock and indicators had been bearish for the past three weeks, but that trend is starting to end. The stochastic oscillator K value is 5.0897 and D value is 6.4898. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic well oversold and the stock should begin to move upward soon. I have created an algorithm (called the SAG gauge) which signals when stocks are truly overbought and oversold. The algorithm indicates when a particular stock meets multiple criteria culminating in an oversold or overbought signal. That signal will occur within a few trading days after the stock has begun to move upward. Recognizing this movement and pending signal can increase gains by entering early. Upon back-testing this indicator, it has signaled oversold status 25 times dating back to 1986. The stock always gains at least 0.75% over the following 35 trading days after the indicator date. Eighty percent of the time the stock gains at least 8.75% and seventy percent of the time gains 9%. Since 1998, this stock always gains a minimum of 1.76% when the RSI, positive and negative VI are simultaneously at their current level and moving in their current direction. This additional study requires the stochastic at the bottom of the chart above to be oversold as it is today too. Ten similar instances were found. The median move is 15.20% over 20 trading days. The last two times the stock bounced off its support line (which it did on July 11), the stock has achieved a minimum gain of 8.30% over the following 22 trading days. Three of the ten instances we just covered occurred at the same time or within days of an oversold signal on the SAG gauge. These instances resulted in a minimal gain of 6.10% and median of 16.25%. Considering the RSI, VI, stochastic levels, SAG gauge and historical similarities, the stock should see upward movement over the short to intermediate time period. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the SAG gauge, the stock could gain at least 6% over the next 35 trading days if not sooner.
NASDAQ:COSTLong
by StockSignaler
1
Here you are, COST cypherCOST is still under huge selling pressure after another downgrade by BMO on Monday, and as I wrote last week, I've waited quite a while for a good entry for the company. Although I didn't really trade it,last week the BAT pattern failed as it gave such a small room for the stock to run. While when the X @ 156.59 broke, it did give good short continuation to make it a great stop loss point. And all of a sudden, here comes the cypher, a much better X point than the BAT last time. This Cypher pattern suggest a 150.90 entry and a 141.99 out, about 6% risk. As it's being slumped so hard, I still won't just put my buy limit @ 150.90 to fight with the recent downtrend; while if there is any potential reversal or retracement sign like hammer or inside day breakout formed here, I'm willing to give it a shot! I do think that will be a very risky trade according to how the market slumped COST stock, while at least I think it worth the risk.
NASDAQ:COSTLong
by Trader_Joe_Lee
Bat Pattern on COST, and I'm always a big fan of this company.According to the chart, there is a Bat pattern on COST and it suggests a 159.63 (0.886XA); while the trade may already fail if you traded it perfectly right to give the out to 1cent below X(156.59). I've waited for a while for an actionable set-up to long COST, and I believe it's coming soon. In my opinion, COST is a kind of company that is both great for trading and investing. In terms of mid-term to long-term investment, it's nonsense to put stop loss only 2% away, so if I were in the trade I prefer using at least 149.99 of even all the way back to 141.99. While as the Bat trade actually failed, I may wait for another bullish set-up to get involved with the stock. Most important of all, this downside move since the AMZN-WFM deal had nothing to do with COST's fundamental, which is kind of a systematic risk event on all the retailers and wholesalers. COST remain strong despite on-line shopping being a huge trend all these years; I don't really think when the on-line shopping giant acquire a huge physical retailer will hurt the business too much more, or at least not that fast yet. On-line shopping is no doubt the future, while the expression is true for all these years. I don't think AMZN-WFM deal will do much harm to COST's business, at least not that fast, so the pullback is a huge overreaction and it creates recent buying opportunity for COST.
NASDAQ:COSTLong
by Trader_Joe_Lee
ANOTHER BUYER FOR $WFM ???FOR THE LAST WEEK WFM HAS BEEN TRADING ABOVE THE $42 ALL CASH OFFER FOR WHOLE FOODS. I AM TAKING THE VIEW THAT WHEN A STOCK IS CONSISTENTLY ABOVE THE OFFER PRICE (ESPECIALLY IN AN ALL CASH BID) THAT THERE ARE OTHERS INTERESTED IN THE COMPANY. THE STORY HAS GOTTEN A LOT OF ATTENTION AND THERE ARE SEVERAL OTHER COMPANIES WHO COULD USE THIS (NOW THAT IT HAS RECEIVED ALL THIS ATTENTION) COMPANY AS A STEPPING STONE OR EVEN JUST TO GAIN A FOOTHOLD IN THE GROCERY MARKET. THOSE RUN FROM WMT, TGT, OR ANY OF THE "REAL GROCERY CHAINS" LIKE KR. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THIS IS A LOW RISK TRADE WITH THIS ONE SELLING FOR ONLY $ .50 OVER THE CASH BID. LAST, BUT NOT LEAST, THIS IS A PRETTY LOW BID BASED ON WHERE THE STOCK HAS BEEN ($57 IN EARLY 2015) AND IT MAKES THIS LOOK LIKE A VERY LOW-COST SPECULATION OF A HIGHER BID. I'M BUYING BOTH THE STOCK AND THE WFM 8/43 CALLS ($ .41)...OZ
WLong
by GreatWizeOz
1
THE WEEK AHEAD: XOP/OIH/XLE, COSTPremium Selling For the umpteenth week in a row, there is little in the market for high quality premium selling plays. Screening for 52-week >70 implied volatility rank, you'll basically get one quality hit at the moment, and that is COST, which has dipped significantly on AMZN/WFM merger news. A few names are approaching that 70 mark, but they have earnings three to four weeks out; you might as well wait to put on volatility contraction plays around earnings announcements in those cases. I previously set out a nondirectional play in COST (see Post below) that I didn't enter, having been distracted by something or other; I may reconsider that play now that the market's had an opportunity to digest the AMZN news. Other names, such as NBR (petro, part of whose operations are deep water),* RAD (pharmacy in merger and acquisition with WBA), and BBRY (a kind of WTF, why are they still around) are too small in dollar value to be worth playing unless you dive in and go straight-on covered call or near-to-the-money short put. Directionals I've been waiting for several weeks to put on a bullish XOP, OIH, and XLE play. Each time I look at them, it appears that oil has trundled lower on rising rig count, total stock build, lackluster inventory draw, or a combination thereof. I've been primarily watching oil prices around the supposed average shale production break even at $40 to go long in one of these underlyings. We may be close enough for me to make a play, but I'll probably continue watching. Lower is better for either a net credit put diagonal or a Poor Man's Covered Call in these guys. Low Volatility Plays With VIX continuing on its sub-12 bender, there probably isn't a better time to go put-side low volatility strategy in broad index underlyings (SPY, IWM, QQQ, DIA) using either calendars, net credit put diagonals, or debit diagonals. These capitalize on volatility expansion and movement of the underlying toward the put side, ideally allowing you to exit the short put aspect of the setup at worthless and recapture any value left in the long at the expiry of the front-month short. Heck, the dam has to break at some point ... . * -- I regard most companies that rely substantially on deep water operations as largely doomed here. Most deep water operations require high per barrel prices that we haven't seen for a substantial period of time and aren't going to see in the short- to medium-term.
AMEX:XLE
by NaughtyPines
TRADE IDEA: COST JULY 21ST 155/158/175/178 IRON CONDORAfter news of AMZN's acquisition of WFM, COST's implied volatility has popped here, with its implied volatility rank ramping up to the 67th percentile over the preceding 52-week period, and with background implied volatility at 21%, making a premium selling play potentially worthwhile. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 64% Max Profit: $93/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $207/contract Break Evens: 157.07/175.93 Theta: 1.96 Delta: -2.47 As an undefined risk alternative, the July 21st 150/175 short strangle is going for 2.35 at the mid with a probability of profit of 71%, BE's at 155.65/177.35, theta 8.85, delta -3.91. Notes: Because I could potentially see this snapping back to the upside, you may want to skew the setup to the call side, narrow the call side spread to reduce call side risk, or otherwise put on a limited upside risk play (e.g., July 21st 160/173/175 Jade Lizard, 1.95 credit at the mid, BE's at 158.05/174.95). With the Jade Lizard, upside risk is limited to .05 (the width of the call side spread (2.00) minus the credit received (1.95) ... .
NASDAQ:COST
by NaughtyPines
Bullish On Costco, But Earnings FirstOn May 17, Costco bounced off of its reoccurring support level. This has been solid support since August 2015. Costco also has earnings in focus this week. The estimated EPS is nearly where it was during the previous quarter's EPS which was a massive miss. A similar massive miss this time around will yield the analysis contained herein almost worthless. However, positive earnings and forecasts should easily meet the projection in this article. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 47.4805. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is relatively neutral and it could go any direction. The true strength index (TSI) is currently 11.2060. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock has been moving down for the past two weeks. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.9097 and the negative is at 0.9696. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. Currently the negative and positive indicators are moving closer together, with the positive moving up. With continued upward movement of this indicator the stock will go with it. The stochastic oscillator K value is 16.3099 and D value is 9.6028. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is currently oversold and should move up soon. Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the upside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could gain at least 3.33% over the next 19 trading days if not sooner. The major hurdle for this movement will be from the earnings released this week.
NASDAQ:COSTLong
by StockSignaler
$COST Preps For Triple Top Breakout...Shares of Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST) and hammering on a triple top breakout. The level is $169 and if Costco can blow through that level, it has significant upside, maybe as high as $200. Don't jump the gun and buy Costco before it breaches the level as it may not breakout, instead collapsing lower. This is a possible breakout, not a breakout that has taken place. Check out the stock chart below. View my documented and VERIFIED performance right here: verifiedinvesting.com
NASDAQ:COSTShort
by jenny_rebekka
Has this endless downtrend found its bottom?SIMPLE REBOUND STORY? Inexpensive stock (P/BV=0.75) bullish consensus (BUY) and 25% target upside. Has found a gently up-sloping channel since Feb 2016. Currently trading at the bottom of channel. Shows technical signs of turnaround. Has rebounded less than the market. Seems to have found a floor at $28. PLAIN VANILLA LONG STRATEGY Buy at the market. Target $34.50/share. Stop-loss $28.00/share. Reward/Risk = 2x CREDIT OPTIONS STRATEGY Buy Dec 16 2016 $31 call = $0.55/share Sell Dec 16 2016 $27 put = $0.60/share Credit = $0.05/share Worst-case: Go long at the low of the up-channel and 8% above the 52w low (indicative prices, ref. last close)
LLong
by HAL9000
0-Cost Options Strategy ahead of earningsSOUND BUT UNEXCITING FUNDAMENTALS Consensus is favorable on aggregate: Buy recommendation, +12.75% target upside. Numbers are compelling (5-yr rev growth +6.63% and ROE +20.35%) but growth has been slipping, esp. in TV. Valuation is un-demanding at a P/E of 17x (now less expensive than the market?) TECHNICALLY ON A DOWNTREND BUT COULD BE REBOUNDING DIS has been on a downtrend since the double-top of Aug/Nov 2015. The long-term (M chart) is still clearly negative. The medium-term (W) shows a series of negative cross-overs and a H&S formation. But lately the stock has been rebounding with the market and the short-term picture (D) is turning positive. A close above the 97.00 (MA200) would confirm the positive turnaround. A close below 90.00 would confirm the negative trend and potentially take us towards the H&S target of 84.00. EARNINGS AND GUIDANCE WILL BE A KEY CATALYST What could propel the stock higher are the earnings and guidance from DIS. STRATEGY: 0-COST EXPOSURE TO UPSIDE IN CASE OF BREAKOUT Buy Nov 18 2016 $98 call to play the breakout = $0.34/share Sell Nov 18 2016 $90 put to finance the synthetic long = $0.33/share Best-case scenario: Stock breaks out ==> Make $ on the call or convert Worst-case scenario: Stock tanks ==> Go long a quality long term holding close to the 52w low.
NYSE:DIS
by HAL9000
Costco ( COST ) Timing & level very close. Another leg down?I like it when price recognises my predictive trend lines, drawn when the high was put in on August 15th. Even better when it has been acting as a resistance angle. The black dashed vertical line here represents time. It's not telling me direction but suggests that's when another bout of momentum should kick in when price reaches it. The blue box is where I would expect price to reach before COST can take a breather and then think about a move up from there. As price has not dipped to the blue box yet, I'd prefer a short stock or long PUT from this level with targets at the red horizontal lines.
NASDAQ:COSTShort
by crando
Overall industry breakdown makes COST a potential candidate for Overall industry breakdown makes COST a potential candidate for short. In the technical side it is rolling over from a double top and broke Upward trend. Money-flow is heading down. We think it can decline to 140 area. You can check our detailed analysis on COST in the trading room/ Executive summery link here- www.screencast.com Time Span: 18:00” Trade Suggestion Date: Aug 26th Trade Status: Pending/Watchlist
NASDAQ:COSTShort
by AcornWealthCorp
THIS WEEK'S OPTIONS EARNINGS PLAYS -- COSTFor all practical purposes, this quarter's earnings season is all but over. However, there is one last play I might do and that is in COST, which announces earnings on Tuesday after market close. Currently, it's implied volatility rank is 58 and its implied volatility is 26. Generally speaking, I like to see the rank in the 70% percentile, and this isn't quite there, but this is one of those underlyings that just never gets that volatile -- its IV has been between 20 and 30 or so for the past 90 days. I'll look to put on a play before NY market close on Tuesday, and I'll post a play (most likely an iron condor given the price of the underlying) some time during Tuesday's NY session. Preliminarily, this looks like the approximate setup I'll use, although tweaking may be required as price moves on Monday and Tuesday: March 11th 137/142/157.5/162.5 Probability of Profit: 66% Max Profit: $99/contract Buying Power Effect: $401/contract
NASDAQ:COST
by NaughtyPines
DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): US DEBT COST IS AT HISTORIC LOWSDue to continuous demand for US Treasury securities over the last 30 years and due to global deflationary pressures, triggered by globalization (cost optimization of global businesses) - the yields of 10 and 30 year Notes continue to decline along their long term descending trend line The result of such a development - is the current cost of US debt is lower than ever, which in turn allows larger external debt to be held by the States. As one can see in Monthly Treasury Statement - Net interest is the lowest type of Outlays in the US Budget higgs.rghost.ru (scource: www.fiscal.treasury.gov)
TShort
by Killy_Mel