Continuation
Gold 4H Sell Continuation Idea 9/30/23At market close, price has closed below 50% of the 3/13/23 D B FVG, but price is in the top 50% of the 3/17/23 4H B FVG. PLUS price closed with a bearish engulfing on the 8H. Since price is in a downtrend I am looking for price to continue down another 300 pips to the 2023 yearly open. Depending on the type of trader you are I see 3 possible entries from where price currently is:
1. 4H S Fractal
If you trade fractals you should already be in this trade. You may see some pull back, but until I see some bullish pressure, I'm looking for price to continue a good 300 pips to the 2023 yearly open
2. 4H B FVG
If you are a counter trend trader, you can get a good 140+ pips out of a possible pullback to the 4H S FVG that has been created in the drop before market close Friday 9/29/23. If not stay out and wait for more sell confirmations to get back in the sell
3. 4H S FVG
If price does pull back, I'm not looking for more than a good 150 pips into the gap that was created at Friday market close. So from there you can catch the sell continuation down to the 2023 yearly open minimum. The next low is WAY below that.
As we know, price does what it wants to do, so be careful and wait on your confirmations. Happy Trading!!
XAUUSD Bearish ContinuationHello Traders there's 1H Timeframe Short Entry We may see a continuacion of Price To the downside why because, Weekly : Bearish Daily : Bearish Everything : Bearish so we still bearish till we reach a Huge Area of Interest Or a daily O.B in this case we found a Breaker block on 1936 That our Main Target on this Trade it a 1:10 RR still we have to be cautious
ORCL Textbook Bull Pennant Coincident With Index Support CatchORCL Upside break-out of a Descending Pennant.
Some things to note:
Hold of 50 EMA within the pattern
High volume entry into the pattern with descending volume throughout
Notable pickup in activity on the upside break
MACD Cross coinciding with break
Throwback following the upside break that tracks along the upper bound of the pattern and is halted at the 50 EMA
Measuring Implications for the pennant begin with a break out of a previous resistance to the top of the minor move that begins the pattern. The resulting move applies this distance to the beginning of the breakout of the pattern.
I have marked and color coded two potential areas to take into account when measuring for price targets, and marked volume POI's to justify those as start-points for their measuring.
PT1: 164
PT2: 143
SL: 50 EMA Break-down
Some other things going on that I observe:
SPX, DJIA, IXIC bouncing following minor (representing trend, not magnitude) decline
VIX 200 EMA rejection. Still cemented below 20 for now.
This analysis is for future price implications of ORCL.
I currently hold a position entered on AUG16.
Feel free to reach out for questions, including a review of a textbook pennant.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
I warrant that the information created and published by me on TradingView is not prohibited, doesn't constitute investment advice, and isn't created solely for qualified investors.
USDJPY I Impulse correction and continuationWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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UPL Weekly pattern breakdown.UPL has been consolidating in a range between 850 and 650 on the weekly chart. It has been in triangle type pattern and has broken down on a weekly basis. A close below the upward trendline shows increasing bearish pressure.
Bearish momentum should increase below the weekly low of 673. One could expect greater selling pressure if price closes below the support at 650 and the 200 Weekly EMA which is also around 654.
After the breach of these levels, the following levels could be expected..
Target 1: 621
Target 2: 569
The setup would be invalid if we get a close above 725. Keep watch.
NZDCHF - Continuation To The Downside!Analysis:
This setup to us is ideal. Firstly price is clearly in a downwards trend and there is no doubt about this. We've seen price create a series of lower lows and lower highs which confirms that we are in a downwards trend. Knowing this we are only looking for shorts on this pair. Where price is currently is a very interesting area to us. Why? This area has held as major support in the past and as support recently so we now expect that it will hold as resistance. If you've been trading long enough you'll know that very often support can turn to resistance and resistance can turn into support. For more confluence at this area we have the 50% fib retracement level which we expect sellers will be sat at waiting before pushing price down further. We've also got an downwards trendline which has been beautifully respected multiple time showing us the bullish pressure and momentum on this pair. Fundamentally as well we're pretty neutral. Both the NZD and the CHF have almost the same long to short ratio so there isn't any real bias here until we dig a little further and we can see that the NZD only really had an increase in short positions by institutions whereas the CHF has an increase in both long and short positions by institutions so we actually have a slight bias to the bullish side of the CHF which goes with our idea and wraps up why we are bearish on this pair.
Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all.
Stay Safe - JPI
Disclaimer:
This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does to. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
NZDUSD - Will The USD Rally Continue?Analysis:
From the charts we're clearly able to tell that price is in a downwards trend, showing us that we want to be shorting this pair only. Last week we saw a break of this key level and we're now seeing that same level get retested for resistance and there is a good chance that this area will hold. For added confluence we have a long term downwards trendline which has been respected multiple times, this gives us more confidence that price is in a downwards trend still. At our area we also have the 50% fib retracement level which we could expect sellers to be sat at wanting to push price down which again works in our favour. Fundamentally the USD is the 2nd strongest major currency pair making it very attractive to buy. The USD also has been on a rally recently showing that the bullish momentum is there. The NZD however is the 4th strongest major currency pair so when we compare the USD to the NZD we have more of a bias to be bullish on the USD then the NZD which goes in our favour for this setup.
Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all.
Stay Safe - JPI
Disclaimer:
This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does to. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
AAPL: Navigating the Push to $166-$167 and its Impact on SPXOn March 28, merely three days ago, I highlighted the inverted head and shoulders pattern observed in AAPL's stock price. In this particular case, the pattern indicated a bullish continuation. I discussed the support and resistance flip that transpired at the $156 mark. At that time, AAPL was trading just below $156.50, and I projected a bounce to $166, provided that the stock found support at $156. Currently, with AAPL at $164, I maintain my expectation of a push towards the $166-$167 range in the upcoming sessions.
AAPL's performance has contributed significantly to the upward movement of the SPX in recent days. While not the sole reason, AAPL's strong showing is indeed a critical factor, given its heavy weighting in the index. Other stocks, such as TSLA, have also performed well, further bolstering the SPX.
This week, the SPX has experienced multiple gap-ups, and as AAPL approaches the $166-$167 price target, I recommend using this opportunity to reduce risk exposure. It is plausible that we may see a short-term pullback from these levels, even for those with a bullish outlook.
EDUCATION - Head and Shoulders - Continuation
Technical analysis is a vital tool for traders looking to identify trends and make informed decisions in the financial markets. Among the many chart patterns that traders rely on, the head and shoulders pattern stands out as a widely-recognized and powerful indicator. However, the lesser-known inverted head and shoulders pattern can also serve as a continuation pattern in an uptrend rather than a reversal formation. I'd like to dive into this a little bit in case there are readers that did not understand how I came to the conclusion I came to with AAPL.
Understanding the Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern
The traditional head and shoulders pattern is characterized by three consecutive peaks resembling a head and two shoulders. Conversely, the inverted head and shoulders pattern consists of three troughs, with the middle trough being the deepest and the other two at roughly the same level. While the conventional head and shoulders pattern typically signifies a bearish reversal, the inverted version can signal either a bullish reversal or a continuation of an existing uptrend.
Identifying the Inverted Head and Shoulders Continuation Pattern
To effectively spot an inverted head and shoulders pattern in an uptrend, traders should look for the following characteristics:
1. Preceding Uptrend: The pattern must form within an existing uptrend to qualify as a continuation pattern.
2. Distinct Troughs: The pattern should have three clear troughs, with the middle one (head) being the lowest and the other two (shoulders) being roughly equal in depth.
3. Neckline: Connecting the highs of the two shoulders forms the neckline, a resistance level that the price must break through to confirm the pattern.
4. Volume: Ideally, volume should decrease as the pattern forms and increase upon breaking the neckline, signaling the continuation of the uptrend.
Trading the Inverted Head and Shoulders Continuation Pattern
When utilizing the inverted head and shoulders continuation pattern in trading, consider the following steps:
1. Confirmation: Wait for the price to break above the neckline with an increase in volume. This confirms the pattern and suggests the continuation of the uptrend.
2. Entry: Enter a long position when the price breaks above the neckline.
3. Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss order below the right shoulder to minimize potential losses.
4. Profit Target: Calculate the profit target by measuring the distance between the neckline and the head. Add this value to the neckline's breakout point to determine the target price.
AUDUSD I Brief correction and more potential downsideWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** AUDSD Analysis - Listen to video!
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IOC could burst into an upward move.IOC has formed a bullish structure on the weekly chart. A crucial aspect is a weekly RSI close above 60. It is also about to break out from a down trending line. A long position could be considered keeping the following levels in mind:
LONG ABOVE: 81.55
STOP LOSS: 77.95
TARGET 1: 85.15
TARGET 2: 88.75
Please do wait for at least a 15 min candle close above the "LONG ABOVE " level before initiating the trade.
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Infosys going back to 1200?INFY has been in a bearish structure on the daily chart since March 23. It had gapped down to 1190 levels in April after a bad surprise in results. It has pulled back to the 1280 area which is the base of the gap. If selling pressure continues, a short position could be considered keeping the following levels in mind:
SHORT BELOW: 1254.25
STOP LOSS: 1279
TARGET 1: 1229.50
TARGET 2: 1204.75
Please do wait for at least a 15 min candle close below the "SHORT BELOW" level before initiating the trade.
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Introducing the Bars Since EMA Touch IndicatorHey there traders, Stock Justice here! Are you ready to elevate your trading game? Today, we're going to delve into an exciting indicator I call 'Bars since EMA touch', or 'BSET' for short. Buckle up, because we're about to kick your technical analysis up a notch!
The BSET, at its heart, revolves around the Exponential Moving Average, or EMA. When setting up BSET, you'll be prompted for the length of the EMA, with the default being 9. This number represents the number of bars that will be averaged to create your EMA line. A higher value smooths out the line, reducing noise but potentially delaying important signals. A lower value makes the EMA more responsive, but at the risk of responding to market noise.
BSET calculates how many bars it's been since the price last touched the EMA. A positive number indicates the number of bars since the price was last above the EMA, and a negative number shows how long it's been since the price was below the EMA.
BSET also uses the MACD and signal line to color-code these bars. Blue and red bars indicate price is above the EMA, with blue signaling an upward trend and red signaling a possible downturn if the bar number is above 3. White and green bars indicate price is below the EMA, with white signaling a downward trend and green indicating a possible upturn if the bar number is above 3.
This color-coding can be a useful tool to quickly determine whether a potential reversal is in the making or if the current trend is likely to continue. But that's not all! BSET takes it a step further by keeping track of how often price trends extend beyond certain thresholds, updating these thresholds if necessary.
These thresholds, shown as red and green lines on the histogram, indicate the 15% percentile for bull and bear trends, respectively. If more than 20% of trends exceed the current threshold, it's adjusted upwards. This gives you a historical context for how long trends usually last and can help you spot when a trend is overextended and might be due for a reversal.
BSET is an innovative tool that combines trend tracking with volatility in a unique way, helping you better understand market dynamics and make informed trading decisions. Just remember, every indicator, BSET included, is just a tool. Always use them in conjunction with other analysis methods and never risk more than you're willing to lose.
That's it for now, traders. Keep your eyes on the charts and remember: Trade safe, trade smart! This is Stock Justice, signing off!