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Bitcoin: Comparison with 2015.. Are the bulls being trapped?Yesterday I made the case that presuming the end of the bear may be a bit premature. Comparing the weekly chart to the weekly chart of 2015 shows this as well. I'm comparing this weeks candle to the candle of the 29th of June. Now here is where I'm being a bit premature, as this weeks candle is still young and bitcoin being bitcoin could close anywhere between 0 and infinity. But for arguments sake, let's assume that this candle will close above 4600. Keep in mind that if this is not the case, everything I say from won't really be true anymore. The reason for comparing this weeks candle to that 2015 candle is that they are both the first candles to print a bullish level 2 signal (blue L2 on the chart). Comparing the candles, the current candle definitely looks more bullish, but also prints an exhaustion signal (red dot). This give me more reason to be cautious to the bullish side. The bullish L2 signal in 2015 resulted in a minor pullback to just below the ribbon. The ribbon then remained neutral (grey), and turned bullish (blue) after the indicator printed a second bullish L2 signal. That was the start of the next bull market (to me at least..) in 2015. I'm looking for something similar to happen this time: for the first bullish L2 signal to fail to turn the ribbon bullish and the market to pullback. To where? Well, I don't know. And nobody really does.. Will that pullback take us to new lows? Perhaps, and there are a number of cases to be made in its favour. The first and foremost is the amount of hope that the space still has. The catharsis this upmove caused is evident I think.. This does not mean we won't go higher, just that this hope (unfortunately) needs to be crushed before the bear is over. And this sets up for nasty bull traps.. Looking at 2015 you can see that trap laid out clearly, with a drop of about 33% after the first L2 signal printed. If it goes lower, how low will it go? Again, I don't know. I won't bore you with the obvious levels, truth is, it can spike anywhere between 3000 and 500, perhaps even lower. It may be the final axe coming down, and how much force that axe needs to break the hope is unclear. The only clear thing, I do not fancy being on the receiving side of that blade. Waiting it out here seems to be the wisest option.. Will this time be different? How many reasons can you think of why it will be different? How bad do you want it to be different? "Check yo'self, before you rek yo'self" a wise man once said...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DariusZen
Bitcoin vs. Silver -$5800 incoming- about to surprise everyone!If you like my work make sure to hit that like & follow button as it really motivates me! Comments are always appreciated. Let's dive into it. I'm sure you have seen many Bitcoin/Gold comparisons before. But did you already see a comparison between Bitcoin and Silver? If not, here it is. BTC/USD is a 4D chart & XAG/USD (Silver) a 4hr chart. We can clearly see that the market structure is quite similar, even RSI levels match. A never ending clean supprt broken, followed by an expansion down & consolidation afterwards, making a Higher-High and a Lower-High. Both trendlines are here to visualize a Low-HigherLow structure. Seems quite similar, huh? Guess what, BTC/USD is right at the exact RSI level as when XAG/USD (Silver) pumped towards it's clean support that turned into resistance after expanding down. As highlighted, we have an inverted hammer on both charts. I'm not going to dive into the fundamental details too much but there are a few things that could influence this: - CBOE-VanEck ETF countdown for a decision whether the physically-backed Bitcoin ETF get's approved, delayed or even denied restarted on 19th of February. A decision has to be made within 45-days. - Bakkt platform confirms other partnerships beside Starbucks & Microsoft. - NASDAQ BTC-Futures come out of nothing (the initial plan was to launch them in Q1 19') Overall we still have a huge liquidity void between $4400 - $5800 that I expect us to clear out. No TA for that needed. This comparison should show that the odds for a BTC pump towards 5800-6200 are very good. Not too technical today, just a pure market-structure comparison! Stay tuned and don't forget to leave a like & follow if you like my work!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CleanTrades
1
Bitcoin v GoldI've been fascinated that the price of Bitcoin was recently hovering at about 3 times the price of Gold (before the recent set back). And now that Bitcoin seems at risk of dying, I'm wondering about its value in relation to its characteristics. So I decided to compare Bitcoin against Gold. I generated the above based only on my knowledge. I can't say that everything on this is 100% correct, or that my choice of words is lends to perfect accuracy. Most of the parameters and qualities of each are broadly correct, and for sure there will be pockets of exceptions. I'd be delighted to hear what others think about all this. Add any parameters I may have missed, in comments section. For the avoidance of doubt, I have not drawn any conclusions on which one is better. No conclusions are implied. This is not an encouragement to buy or sell cryptocurrencies of any kind.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Captain_Walker
12
2014 crash comparison (final stage) : the compression & entryFollowing on from the almighty 2014 crash comparison I made months ago and that went pretty crazy buzzy.. I think that after the patience, the possible entry point described back then is now potentially reached. Regarding this, I just made a first BTC call today. I putted 5% of my capital here on a Buy&Hold trade which means there is no stop loss on this trade. Some ppl may have thought I was just riding the crypto wave to scam ppl and gather subscribers back then... well... here I am today proving you wrong. I just sold according to the plan until today where I make exactly what I told you months ago... making the actual bullish speculative entry ! Hope this idea will inspire some of you ! Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;) That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users. Kindly, Phil
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by PRO_Indicators
230
Top 30 coins comparison per usd and predictions based on Eth/BtcTop 30 coins comparing coin per usd and predictions based on Eth/Btc trend. It appears for the past 2 times when Eth/Btc ratio trend change to positive that the majority of the top 30 altcoins increase in value for about 4 weeks. Btc/Usd graph is a light blue area representing water. So if you bought and held Btc during the whole time you would be at the surface of the water. So you could compare whether or not you would have been better holding Btc or an altcoin depending if you were above or underwater.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Davidbike
1
Where we are now in the 2014/15 comparison So far, this bearmarket is remarkably similar to the 2014/15 one. So much so, that I often think: This can't be, this is too predictable. Ok, sure, the exact behavior is different, spikes and dumps occur not exactly at the same times and the fractal looks a bit different. But the general behaviour is the same: 1. Slow grind down along an exponential falling resistance line (linear falling in log chart, the red line) 2. Unable to push through daily MA200 => dumps when failing to push through 3. Short pump spikes followed by long grinds down This makes me think that we'll continue to see new lows like in 2014/15 until mid 2019, when the people will start talking about the good old halving again, which will take place in mid 2020. Surely this will again generate hype, leading to a slow rise, leading to the start of the next bull cycle when the halving really kicks in, and good news will start taking effect, like potential ETF, lightning network, positive regulations etc. Short term short, longterm always long on BTC :)
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by SebastianofMoon
4
A Comparison of Crash Patterns, BTC Price Prediction! Bitcoin's price distribution is still compressing. It will take roughly a week for bullish (or bearish ) moves to truly be supported by price mass on the shorter timeframes. This is actually the tightest we've seen the distribution all year on the four hour chart, once it starts expanding again we'll see a brief return of price volatility . Do note that the 50 MA subset distribution is heavily weighted to the negative on the daily chart and any break below the relevant mean period volatility could cause significant, medium term net negative selling. If the price mass is still decreasing, why would upward moves be supported without the people who are capable of covering the shorts being on board for long term sustainable growth? (And they're not, due to the continued, long term compression of the distribution.) Show me net positive short term volume , and then I can jump on the meme reverse head and shoulders patterns we see on tradingview right now. The left side is Bitcoin. The right side is the dot com bubble. Really the fact that they're different asset classes doesn't matter, charts are just visual representations of market expectations and both charts reflect the fear and uncertainty that comes from a crash. Yes, these are different time frames but we should all know bitcoin is extraordinarily volatile. Bitcoin was a bubble, the bubble popped. As you can imagine, the Nasdaq composite has shot up in value far above the highs set during the dot com bubble. Just wait for the distribution to compress before taking any bullish positions. My expected trading range for bitcoin over the next year is 4,000 to 9,500.
TVC:IXIC
by DadShark
6
Growth rate comparison FDEV, PDX, TTWOJust a basic comparison of growth rates between gaming developers Frontier Developments (green and red line), Paradox Interactive (light orange), and Take Two (darker orange). Frontier has by far out performed both other companies since 2013 in terms of growth. Interesting to notice the similarities between growth patterns of FDEV and PDX for the current year. Both had a rapid up turn after the quarterly reports, Paradox increased slightly more than FDEV during this period due to their profits growing by 120%. A good factor to bear in mind when speculating where the SP of FDEV might go after revenue from Jurassic World Evolution is announced. Even considering FDEV's staggering growth to date, they are currently experiencing their most transformative year to date. Jurassic World Evolution is set to double units sales of previous games, Elite Dangerous has been released on PS4 growing sales to 2.5 million at the last update, with Planet Coaster cruising past the 1.5 million mark. Updates to all games are still incoming so expect future growth to continue. With very few UK based tech companies on the market FDEV is increasingly looking like one of the best investment opportunities.
LSE:FDEVLong
by Endion
NASDAQ suggests BTC at 50K by 2020Have for some time found it likely that bitcoin would bottom out (flat) like in 2014-16 however possibly faster. The problem I have with this though is that with all the attention bitcoin has now (compared to 2014-2016) it feels a bit wrong in a way to have a long flat price period (however still possible of course). Many people has compared the Dotcom bubble with bitcoins run up to 20k so maybe a NASDAQ style bottom is actually more likely than a flat 2014-16 style bottom? The graphs tries to illustrate some rough possible similarities between NASDAQ Y2K crash and BTC’s latest crash from 20k. BTC’s crash up until today has lasted about halt a year. In the comparison I am making NASDAQ used about 2.5 year to reach the point I am suggesting bitcoin might be at. NASDAQ graph is 5M EMA and BTC graph (below) is 25D EMA. Apart from the exponential rally of both assets there are also some similarity in rallies on the way down illustrated with the three white arrows. Furthermore a long term support line (green trend line) can be drawn for both assets. The point in time I am suggesting we might be at is where this support line has been broken to the downside. I have moved the potential next bull run of BTC a bit forward compared to the NASDAQ as I have taken a way the 2008 crisis. Please share your opinions below. Would really like hear your comments on this comparison.
NASDAQ:IXICLong
by pragmaticbestfit
1