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GOLD (XAU/USD): detailed multi-timeframe chart breakdown Let's take a look at the chart of GOLD on different timeframes and make a detailed chart analysis of it! As it can be noticed from the WEEKLY timeframe perspective, the price has nicely rejected the zone of previous resistance later turned support that lines up with the ascending trend-line illustrated on the chart. This means that the price has successfully retested the area of the previous Higher High and is now on its way to form a new Higher Low. Zooming into the DAILY timeframe chart, we can see that the area of $1918 serves as a crucial zone of resistance, which means the price is most likely to visit that particular zone in the short-run. Lastly, the H8 chart show us that the price is currently at the doors of the Previous Lower Low and it has printed some nice bullish reversal candlestick patterns. Thus, if the price manages to break above the local zone of resistance and re-test it, we can expect for the price to keep rising till the area illustrated on the graph.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Investroy
11
Sugar and FCOJ Take the Bullish BatonThe soft commodities sector of the commodity market can be highly volatile. Historically, sugar, coffee, cotton, cocoa, and frozen concentrated orange juice futures that trade on the Intercontinental Exchange have doubled, tripled, and halved in value over short periods. While clothing and other consumer goods depend on the cotton market, the other sector members are foods. The soft commodity sector rose in 2021, and Q1 2022 Coffee and cotton rose to multi-year highs in 2022 FCOJ takes off on the upside in April and makes a new multi-year high Sugar could be next for three reasons Trading softs from the long side- Buy those dips Brazil is the world’s leading producer and exporter of three of the soft commodities; sugar, coffee, and oranges. Sugar comes from two sources, sugar beets and sugarcane. Brazil’s tropical climate makes it the leading sugarcane producer. Arabica coffee beans are popular in the US and other areas, while Robusta beans produce espresso coffees. Brazil leads the world in Arabica production. While many people associate orange production with Florida and California, Brazil is the world’s top orange producer. Cocoa, the primary ingredient in chocolate confectionery products, comes mainly from West Africa, as the Ivory Coast and Ghana produce over 60% of the world’s annual supplies. Soft commodities are agricultural products, so the weather in growing areas typically determines the prices each year. Since the 2020 pandemic, the price action has been anything but ordinary. The two latest soft commodities to lead the sector on the upside have been sugar and FCOJ futures. The soft commodity sector rose in 2021, and Q1 2022 In 2021, the composite of the five soft commodities that trade in the futures markets on the Intercontinental Exchange rose 31.57%. In Q1 2022, the softs added to gains, rising 6.58%, with all five members posting gains. Cotton futures led the softs higher with a 20.51% gain. Cocoa futures moved 5.16% to the upside, with FCOJ posting a 3.86% gain. Sugar rallied 3.23%, and Arabica coffee futures eked out a 0.13% gain. Meanwhile, coffee and cotton rose to new multi-year highs during the first three months of 2022. Coffee and cotton rose to multi-year highs in 2022 In June 2020, coffee futures made a higher low under the $1 per pound level before taking off on the upside. The weekly chart shows the bullish trend of higher lows and higher highs that took coffee futures to $2.6045 per pound in early February 2022. Coffee futures rose to the highest price since 2011. Cotton futures also rose to the highest level since 2011, peaking at the $1.4614 per pound level in April 2022. Coffee futures were over the $2.20 level, with cotton above $1.40 on April 14. FCOJ takes off on the upside in April and makes a new multi-year high Frozen concentrated orange juice futures are the least liquid of the five soft commodities, based on daily volume and open interest metrics. While the FCOJ futures arena rose to a new multi-year high in Q1 2022, the bullish price action continued in April with higher highs. The chart shows that nearby FCOJ futures rose to $1.8660 per pound last week, the highest level since March 2017. The all-time high in the orange juice market came in 2016 at $2.35 per pound. Brazil is the leading producer and exporter of oranges and Arabica coffee beans. The South American country also is the leader in free-market sugarcane production and exports. Sugar could be next for three reasons Sugar futures rose to 20.69 cents per pound in November 2021, the highest price since February 2017. The weekly chart shows that sugar futures were above the 20 cents per pound level last week. Sugar is approaching the first technical resistance level at the November 2021 20.69 cents high. Above there, the next target is at the October 2016 23.90 high, which is a technical gateway to the 2011 36.08 cents per pound peak. Three factors support sugar prices in April 2022: Rising inflation is lifting all commodity prices, and the trend is always your best friend in markets across all asset classes. Rising crude oil and natural gas prices support sugar. Crude oil is over the $100 per barrel level, and natural gas stopped just short of $7 per MMBtu last week. Multi-year highs in the energy market support sugar as it is the primary input in Brazilian ethanol production. As more sugarcane goes into ethanol production, less is available for exports. Sugarcane production costs are increasing as they are labor-intensive. The rising Brazilian real makes sugar more expensive to produce. The chart illustrates the technical breakout to the upside in the Brazilian currency against the US dollar. A higher real increases the cost of production, putting upside pressure on sugar’s price. Trading softs from the long side- Buy those dips Stocks and bonds have been shaky in 2022, and cryptocurrencies have not yet of the slump that took prices lower since the November 2021 highs. Commodities have been the place to be for investors and traders over the first four months of 2022. The latest inflation report will likely keep the bullish party in raw material markets going. I remain bullish on soft commodities as they are highly volatile and can offer explosive returns. Sugar is my top choice as of April 15, as the sweet commodity loosed poised to eclipse the 2021 high on its way to higher ground. Meanwhile, I favor all soft commodities in the current environment. The optimal approach to the sector has been buying on price weakness, and I expect that to continue. Bull markets rarely move in straight lines, and corrections can be the best route to optimizing returns over the coming weeks and months. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
ICEUS:OJ1!Long
by Andy_Hecht
12
Crude Oil Idea Nr_one (WTI)Hello Traders This is my opinion on Crude Oil. The price is at strong resistance: - Trendline --> Dec./ Jan. Highs & Jan.- Mar. Lows - 78.6 Fib --> Mar. Rally - Resistance --> 1 & 4 April Lows - 50 Day EMA @ 99.29 - Descending Triangle on Price and TDI (RSI) The price will probably push back from strong resistance I mentioned, between ~98 & ~99 and move lower till the 50% Fib. support at 95.90 and the triangle support + the March low at 93.50. A break through will give the price more downside Momentum till the support levels below: - Oct. / Nov. highs @ ~85 - 161.8 Fib. Retracement --> March Rally - Very Strong Support between ~ 75 & ~77 --> 78.6 Fib. Retracement from March highs + Oct. '18 & Jul. '21 highs + 2022 Open Long-term I think the price will go higher again up to the 2008 high @ ~150 maybe more.
TVC:USOIL
by FiXTUX
2
GOLD (XAU/USD): detailed market outlook and MTF analysisAfter tapping into the zone of all-time high last week, the price of gold has been rapidly dropping ever since. From the DAILY timeframe chart, it can be witnessed that the previous DAILY candlestick has left a huge wick to the downside and closed in the favour of buyers. Yet, the current DAILY candle looks super bearish. It had been forecasted that the price is probably making a correctional move and visiting the area of $2000 before continuing its bullish movements. However, the price closed below that level of previous support and formed some sort of a Head&Shoulders pattern. At the moment, the price is sitting on the $1960 zone of support, and it can be inferred that quite a few nice bearish candles have been printed, which indicates a possible continuation to the downside. If the price manages to break below this area of demand, we can observe a further drop till the next zone of crucial support, which is $1915.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Investroy
12
GOLD (XAU/USD): the beast will most likely keep growingAs it can be noticed from the chart, the price has been on a bullish run for quite some time. A nice uptrending curve illustrated on the graph serves as a powerful line of support. Moreover, the price is currently sitting on a zone of previous resistance now turned support. Therefore, we are waiting for a nice bottom to be formed before we can open long positions and aim for the zone of ATH. If the price manages to break below the zone of local support, the idea will become invalid. Happy trading, family!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Investroy
7
GOLD (XAU/USD): detailed outlook. Where are we headed next?Taking a look at the Weekly timeframe chart, it can be noticed that the price has been heavily rejecting the local crucial zone of resistance. The previous weekly candle has left a 700-pip wick and closed below the local structure. Zooming into the H8 timeframe chart, it can be seen that the price has formed some sort of a Head&Shoulders pattern. We are patiently waiting for the price to break and retest the $1888 level of support, before further downside movements can take place. The $1845 zone of support will be eyed as the next possible target. Happy trading, everyone!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Investroy
6
UKOIL short position selling from the 80sAs the new year begins, the markets are a little quiet but in the oil , markets seem a little confusing, Based on OPEC-JMMC Meetings we made our view on the oil market. "That's one way of looking at it OPEC plus seems confident that despite omicron spreading rapidly around the world and with cases rising it's not going to have that much of an impact on oil demand the group is expecting the oil market to be in a supply surplus in the first and second quarters" While the U.S airlines have canceled and delayed thousands of flights since 23 December 2021, The energy sector will depend on storage more than consumption in the coming period. OPEC plus is probably not almost certainly not going to actually add 400 000 barrels a day to the market because of supply problems incertain members in the oil club. I see OPEC crude oil production increasing since Jul 2020 : 24.82M bbl /d on Jul 2020 to be 28.87M bbl /d in Aug 2021 Making the oil production increase +16.31% in one year. The technical view you will see 83.00 -82.00 area as a supply area on the chart, also, 86.50 - 85.00 area is a strong historical supply area. The Market tend to sell from these areas, we may see some increase in the price shortly but in the volume indicator the average volume is in decline For the position I recommend a sell order from 83.00 -81.50 area Sell limit on 84.5- 86.5 in case the market still growing before retrograding Targets 1st target 77. 40 - 77.00 demand area 2nd target 68.40- 69.10 demand area The period of the Positon is more than 1 month up to 5 months (estimated ) This is a swing trade so be patient we estimate +16% to +20% profit for 5 months The news and numbers source coming from theoilsellers.com/ news.cn/ ycharts.com/
TVC:UKOILShort
by youssefallax
2
GOLD (XAU/USD): detailed breakdown and explanation In the previous analysis for GOLD, we had mentioned that the price is most likely to visit the area of the ascending trendline that aligns with 50% Fibonacci level once again, before continuing its moves to the upside. As it can be seen from the graphical illustration, a nice bullish hammer candlestick pattern was formed earlier, as the price nicely rejected the area of 0.5 Fibonacci retracement. We are now expecting for the price to keep rising all the way up and reach the zone of $1877. Happy trading, everyone!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Investroy
37