GOLD Channel Up intact aiming at 1950Pattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price rebounded exactly on the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel following the 1D MA50/MA100 Bullish Cross and on top of that a 1D Golden Cross is emerging.
Target: 1950 (just below the 10 month Resistance Cluster of September 2020).
Previous Gold signal:
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Commoditysignals
GOLD Emerding Golden Cross on 1D. First since January 2019!Gold has broken above its 9 month Channel Down two weeks ago and last week printed a 1D MA50/ MA100 Bullish Cross. Now it is ahead of an even more interesting development. Projected courses of the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) show that within a 2 week time-frame, Gold may form a 1D Golden Cross. This is technically the strongest bullish MA pattern.
Last time the price formed a Golden Cross on the 1D chart, was back in January 16, 2019! At that time, Gold had already broken above its Channel Down and the RSI was already above 70.000. It is similar to the patterns we have today. Following the Golden Cross and a short consolidation, Gold almost reached the top of the Channel Down. Do you think the same pattern will be repeated?
Previous Gold signal:
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NATURAL GAS Action PlanPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1W MA50 (yellow trend-line).
Target: 3.350 (just below the -0.236 Fibonacci extension).
Most recent Natural Gas signal:
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WTI OIL Resistance Zone being tested. Action plan.Pattern: Descending Triangle on 4H.
Signal: As long as the Resistance Zone stays intact, sell (A). If broken buy (B).
Target: (A) 62.50 (the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level), (B) 68.30 (the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level).
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GOLD close to the first 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross since 2020!Gold (XAUUSD) is not secret that it has turned very bullish on the long-term. I've been mentioning since late March/ early April on a series of ideas that after the Double Bottom on the 1675 Support and the emergence of a 4H Golden Cross (MA50 crossing above the MA200), a Channel Up would develop:
A new development though is emerging on the 1D chart this time, as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is about to make a Bullish Cross above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). Last time Gold formed this pattern was almost 1.5 years ago on January 22, 2020!
As you see from the main chart, the sequences are similar and they are accompanied by an equally similar RSI pattern. In early 2020 after the 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross, Gold made an initial top just below the 1.5 Fibonacci extension and after some consolidation it made a Higher High just above the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (before the COVID meltdown took the global markets by storm).
What do you think, will this fractal be repeated? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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GOLD Buy signalsGold is getting outside of the Channel Up that started on the March 31 bottom (blue channel) and may be forming an even more aggressive Channel Up (dashed lines). The next Resistance Zone is the January 06 - 07 Volatility Cluster (1910 - 1925). The 4H MA50 and 4H MA100 continue to form a zone for pull-back buying. The natural target is 1900 (just below the Volatility Cluster) and the Jan 06 High of 1960 in extension.
Most recent Gold signal:
Similarities with 2020:
March buy signal on the bottom:
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PALLADIUM Trade based on the 4H MA200 and the 1D MA200Pattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: As long as the 4H MA200 (yellow trend-line) supports, buy the dips. If it breaks potential prolonged sideways action until the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) approaches.
Target: Trade within the patterns that will be formed.
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GOLD Buy signals short-termPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price successfully tested the former 1816.50 Resistance as Support. Stronger buy zone within the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and 4H MA100 (green trend-line).
Target: 1855 and 1875 in extension (i.e. slightly below the next Resistance levels (and former Lower Highs during the February downtrend)).
Former Gold signal:
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GOLD Cup and Handle showing $2300 and $3050 long-termThis doesn't need any complicated description. Long-term Gold holders can feel very secure as the giant Cup & Handle that has been formed on the 1M chart, is almost complete and is close to breaking above the Handle.
The next natural technical targets are the 1.786 Fibonacci extension ($2300) and the 2.0 Fib extension ($3050).
Thoughts?
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WTI OIL Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price entered the 4H MA50 (blue) - 4H MA100 (green) range, which has been a Buy Zone before.
Target: 67.50 (just below the 2 month Resistance). With a little more risk you may pursue the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, depending on where the price bottoms now.
Most recent WTI signals:
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GOLD broke above the 1D MA100. Major bullish break-out signal.As mentioned on a series of posts, Gold has been trading within a Channel Up since April:
This Channel had one major barrier before the short-term bullish sentiment made the leap to the long-term as well, and that was the 1D MA100 (yellow trend-line). The current chart is on the 4H time-frame for better illustration, so be advised that the blue line is the 4H MA50 while the green line is the 4H MA100.
So as you see XAUUSD closed its first 4H candle above the 1D MA100. The trend-line has also been hit both on May 04 and 03 but never had a 4H candle closing above it. So today marked the first time this happens since January 08!
So what happens now? Well if the Channel Up is sustained, then every dip within the 4H MA50 - 4H MA100 Zone is a buy opportunity targeting the Lower Highs of the January - February downtrend: Feb 23 = 1816.50, Feb 10 = 1855.50 and Jan 29 - 1876.00.
Pay attention to the 4H RSI which has a Resistance Zone that marks price tops within the Channel Up fairly accurately.
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GOLD 2021 vs 2020This is a comparison of XAUUSD (Gold) during March/ April / May 2021 and May/ June/ July 2020. As you see there are a few strong similarities:
* Both formed a Double Bottom on their start.
* A Golden Cross was then formed on the 4H time-frame.
* This gave way to a Channel Up (blue).
* The 4H MACD at the start of the Channel Up until now is virtually identical.
Do you think history will repeat itself and push Gold higher inside the Channel Up and then even aggressively outside it on a Parabolic Rise?
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GOLD Successful test of 1760 as Support. Bullish.Pattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price successfully tested the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) and the 1760 level (was formerly the Resistance for 1.5 month) as Support. The 4H MACD made a Bullish Cross.
Target: 1795 short-term (right below the 1D MA100 (yellow trend-line), which is holding as Resistance since January 08) and 1830 medium-term (right below the projection of the 1W MA50 (red trend-line).
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WTI OIL Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price rebounded on the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel and is supported by the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), which has been the Support on the November 2020 - February 2021 uptrend.
Target: 66.00 (just below the 66.40 Resistance).
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WTI OIL First 4H Golden Cross since November!WTI Crude Oil has just formed a Golden Cross on the 4H chart (MA50 (blue trend-line) crossing above the MA200 (orange trend-line)), the first since November 12, 2020. The price action since March 12 is quite similar to late October - early November. After the Death Cross on October 27, 2020, a bottom was formed a few days later. Once the Golden Cross was formed on November 12, 2020, the very aggressive rally of December - March was initiated. We are on a similar situation right now. The March 26 Death Cross may have priced the Bottom and if so, then today's Golden Cross may kick-start a new rally. I expect a value above $70.00 before June.
Most recent WTI signal:
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NATURAL GAS 1st Higher High since mid February. Buy.Pattern: Triangle on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price has rebounded on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and formed the 1st Higher High since February 17. After a Higher High, a rally was always followed since July 2020.
Target: 3.140 (the 1.618 Fibonacci extension ).
Most recent signal on NG:
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COPPER Buy SignalPattern: Fibonacci Channel on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price rebounded on the 1D MA50.
Target: The 1.5 Fibonacci extension level (low-risk) or the 2.0 Fibonacci level (high-risk).
Previous COPPER signal:
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SILVER (XAGUSD) Buy signal towards the August HighPattern: Ascending Triangle on 1W.
Signal: Buy as the price rebounded right before testing the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) with the RSI trading sideways supporting trading within the Triangle.
Target: 27.700 short-term (the 1.382 Fib extension) and 29.700 (August High).
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PLATINUM (XPTUSD) starting a long-term rallyPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price has been consolidating near the Channel's Higher Lows trend-line in a manner similar to November 2020. Identical MACD sequences also.
Target: 1330 (current Resistance on 1D) medium-term and 1550 (Higher Highs trend-line of the Channel Up) long-term.
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GOLD broke the 1760 and 1D MA50 for the 1st time since February!Finally the precious metal has broken above the 1760 Resistance which has been holding since February 26. The reason behind it wasn't the DXY or the rise on stocks but the strong daily sell-off on the US10Y, which broke below its own 4H MA200 for the first time since November! Whether that is enough to kickstart a correction, thus a sustainable uptrend on Gold on the long-term (month-to-month basis) it remains to be seen.
On my latest XAUUSD (see chart below), I focused on how the (at the time) emerging Golden Cross on the 4H time-frame was the key in an uptrend to 1800/ 1825 as it had many similarities with the December 2020 price action.
On the current study I take this on the 1D time-frame, which also shows many similarities both on the RSI and MACD. Another break-through is that today the price not only broke the 1760 Resistance but also the 1D MA50 for the first time since February 02.
Based on the December 2020 fractal, 1800 is a reasonable level to target as it is on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which was the first stop on the December (21st) uptrend. 1825 is eyed too as it is where the 1W MA50 is projected to be (and as mentioned on the previous idea is the pivot on the long-term).
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WTI OIL turned bullish againPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy (A) after a pull-back on the 4H MA50/ Higher Lows trend-line, or (B) if Resistance 2 breaks first.
Target: (A) 66.45 (Resistance 2), (B) 69.00.
Most recent WTI idea projecting that rally:
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URANIUM Time to go on a big buy?The Uranium ETF has sustained an uptrend since March 2020, with is rise resembling other bullish stock markets. Perhaps the most important development is the formation of the Golden Cross (MA50 crossing above the MA200) on the 1W time-frame. The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) has been the Resistance throughout its multi-year downtrend. Can it now provide Support for a multi-year uptrend?
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GOLD First 4H Golden Cross since December! Bullish or not?Gold reached yesterday the 1760 Resistance which is a very critical level as it may currently be the Resistance (since March 01) but is a Pivot as it was formerly a Support (two contacts: November 30, 2020 and February 18, 2021).
It is no surprise that the price got rejected there as besides the 1760 Resistance, it also touched the 1D MA50 (light blue trend-line), so short-term buyers naturally booked profits. What happens on the medium/ long-term though?
Well the most important development is the emerging (will have formed by Monday) Golden Cross on the 4H chart. Last time we had the MA50 (dark blue trend-line) crossing above the MA200 (orange trend-line) was in December 22, 2020). What followed then was an aggressive rally to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. Assuming the same pattern is replicated, then medium/ long-term traders may target 1800 (just below the 1.618 Fib ext) and 1825 (roughly where the 1W MA50 (yellow trend-line) will be at the time). Why the 1W MA50 is important? Because it is a Pivot as well, signaling trend changes on the long-term. As long as Gold trades below it, the trend remains bearish, above it we have a trend shift. Notice how the price found Support there twice (November 30, 2020 and January 18, 2021) and now has turned into the long-term Resistance that may reject the price.
BONUS MATERIAL:
Most recent Gold idea:
Long-term outlook:
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