XAUUSD High chances for a short-term pull-back.Gold (XAUUSD) is having an remarkable 3 week rally after a technically flawless hit-and-rebound on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) on the week of October 02. Obviously, this rally has been stretched by the geopolitical unrest in Middle East and isn't purely technical on its full range, but besides the small fundamental correction we should see once peace is restored, there are a few important conclusions we can make from similar technical situations in the recent past.
For the past +3 years (since the August 2020 High), Gold has seen another 6 similar rallies (+10.53% to +14.12%). Of those 6 only 2 formed a 1W MACD Bullish Cross, such as the rally we are currently at. Even the 3 rallies after the September 26 2022 bottom that were on an uptrend, delivered short-term corrections to at lest the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. This time the 0.382 Fibonacci level is marginally below 1940 and can be your target.
If the current rally is indeed the start of a new multi-month bullish sequence to new All Time Highs (ATH), then a hit-and-rebound at 1940 would be ideal technically, as it will test successfully the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the standard Support level during long-term uptrends.
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Commoditysignals
XAGUSD Giant Inverse Head & Shoulders makes it long-term bullishSilver (XAGUSD) is one of our favorite assets to analyze on the 1W time-frame, as a result of its high reliability of following long-term patterns. You can see a few examples of such successful trades we made using this time-frame below:
This time we have another major pattern forming on the 1W time-frame, an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S), a formation typically found on market bottoms that initiates trend reversals. Interestingly enough, the last two weeks have been ranged within the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). This high volatility action can be an indication that a major move is approaching. Technically the IH&S patterns can target as high as the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. On such a large time-frame, this target is of course on the long-term.
On the shorter-term, we may be seeing the emergence of a Channel Up that aims inevitably at the 3 year Resistance Zone. We are technically at the start of the bullish leg towards that Zone, but a 1W MACD Bullish Cross can only confirm it. Once it does, Target 1 will be 28.750 (bottom of Resistance Zone) and when the Channel Up breaks, Target 2 will be 34.500 (just under the 2.0 Fibonacci extension).
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GASOLINE Excellent short-term buy opportunity.Gasoline (RB1!) is on a minor pull-back on the 1D chart, below both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The 1D RSI has been rebounding since the October 05 oversold bottom, something that has done the exact same way the previous two times on May 04 2023 and December 08 2022. Both of those fractals have (so far) similar structure with the current sequence since the September 13 High, and both reached at least their 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level on those rebounds.
As a result, we are taking advantage of the current pull-back to get a more comfortable low risk buy and target 2.500 (marginally below the 0.618 Fibonacci level).
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XPDUSD Price rebounding at the bottom of the Channel Down.Palladium (XPDUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since late June and on Monday the price hit its bottom (Lower Lows trend-line). As the 1D RSI touched the 30.00 oversold barrier on a Lower Lows formation that has previously formed short-term bottoms for Palladium, we expect a rebound towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The lowest rebound sequence within this period has been +9.00% so a 1185 target perfectly fit those criteria as well as a potential contact with the 1D MA50.
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XPTUSD bottomed and has almost +30% upside potential.Platinum (XPTUSD) is testing (and so far failing to break) the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) after a rebound on the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up structure. A break above the 1D MA50 but mostly the Lower Highs trend-line, would confirm the bullish bias on such a low price action, with considerable upside potential.
As you can see the current bottom formation is very similar to the one that led to the September 01 2022 Low. The 1D RSI fractals are identical and will be confirmed if it continues on Higher Lows.
As a result we do have a low risk buy signal on the current level but it is not confirmed yet and needs to break above the Lower Highs to do so. Our long-term target is the 1100, which represents a +28.55% rise from the bottom, similar to the November 11 2022 peak.
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COPPER Channel Down bottom buy opportunityCopper (HG1!) is trading within a Channel Down pattern since the June 29 low and since 5 days, it entered the 11 month Support Zone. The 1D MACD just formed a Bullish Cross, which has been a buy signal the previous 2 times within the Channel Down.
Every bearish sequence in 2023 has seen a rebound that hit at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. This is good enough for us to buy and target 3.7600 (0.618 Fib).
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NATURAL GAS Ready to buy at the bottom of the Channel Up?Natural Gas (NG1!) is trading within a logarithmic Channel Up pattern since the April 14 Low. The current bearish leg is one step before testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but the bottom is located just below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). That trend-line has priced the last three Higher Lows (September 26, September 06, August 24), so we are ready to buy there and target the 0.786 Fibonacci at 3.250, which has been a standard rebound target since July. The most optimal buy signal though since April 13 is when the 1D RSI enters its Support Zone.
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XAGUSD Critical Resistance test. Trade the break-outs.Silver (XAGUSD) gave a solid rejection at the top of the long-term Channel Down (see chart below) when we looked into it on July 21 2023:
This rejection gave way to the creation of the current Bearish Megaphone pattern whose low got priced on October 04. This initiated the current bullish leg which tested the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and almost reached Resistance 1 (23.775). As long as this holds, the selling pressure will pile up to see if the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) will hold.
If it closes a 1D candle below it, we will sell and target 22.350 (top of Support 1 and above the 0.5 Fibonacci level). If on the other hand we close above Resistance 1 (23.775), we will buy and target the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Bearish Megaphone at 24.300.
Note that the 1D RSI is testing its own Lower Highs trend-line. As long as it remains below it, the selling pressure will keep piling up.
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XAUUSD Is this rally coming to an end?Two weeks ago (October 07) we called for a new Bullish move (see chart below) on Gold (XAUUSD) as the price hit the 1W MA200 and held it
The sheer force behind this bullish move has surpassed all technical expectations as it is also fundamentally driven by the Middle East tension. Gold acts as a safe haven in times of market uncertainty. In any case, the rally broke today above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (from the ATH) and entered the 5-month Resistance Zone that is in place since May 18 and has 10 rejections under its belt.
The 1D RSI broken yesterday into the +70.00 overbought territory so a technical pull-back isn't at all unrealistic now. It all depends on the 1D candle closing (which will also be the weekly closing). If the candle closes below 1979 (0.618 Fibonacci), it will be an early bearish signal. The target of the first correction of the previous similar bullish leg in March was the 4H MA50 (red trend-line). As a result, if the candle makes that closing, we are willing to take the risk and target the 4H MA50/ 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) Support cluster at 1935.
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WTI OIL Channel Up. Short-term sell opportunity.WTI Oil (USOIL) got heavily rejected following our sell signal (see chart below) earlier this month (October 02) after failing to close above the 12-month Double Top:
This long-term bearish trade is still valid but on the short-term (4H time-frame) we see another sell opportunity in the making. The Channel Up that is emerging after the price got rejected on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) calls for a sell back to the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the pattern. Our target is 83.50 (-5.66 bearish leg as the one before it).
The 4H MACD is about to form a Bearish Cross so if the price breaks below the (dashed) Higher Lows trend-line, we will sell the break-out and target the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) at 78.50 (just above Support 1).
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XAUUSD Channel Down turning into Inverse H&S?Gold (XAUUSD) emphatically smashed the bullish target we set 2 weeks ago (see chart below) and made a standard Lower High at the top of the 5-month Channel Up:
The price also hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) in the process and that is a technical sell, with which we will target 1890 (just above Symmetrical Support 2). Since however the October 06 rebound was initiated on the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), it may not just be a Channel Down Lower Low but a long-term market bottom and the Head of an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern. A Bullish Cross completion on the 1W MACD, will largely confirm that.
Being a technical bullish reversal pattern, the IH&S typically targets the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, so 2095 is our long-term target. But on the shorter term, if the price breaks above 1953.50 (Resistance 1), we will target 1987 (just below Resistance 2).
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Daily XAUUSD Breakdown, in Deep AnalyseHello traders, this the OANDA:XAUUSD breakdown from HTF prespective, overall trend is Bearish and Daily we may see a pullback to 1922 then a drop to 1754 That where we heading toward if we don't pullback now we may reach the area of 1735 - 1744 Sonner, but after this drop, we may get a pullback
XAUUSD Channel-to-Channel Cycles. New Bull or 1700 next?This is not the first time we chart these Cycles on Gold (XAUUSD), as we did our latest study on September 27 (see chart below) and we were quick to catch the break-out sell on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) towards the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line):
This time though, we add the Channel element as well as the unique US10Y/DXY ratio and the mix proves to be quite accurate. As you see every Channel Down (red) is formed on a rising US10Y/DXY ratio, which is naturally expected as both the US10Y and DXY are negatively (inversely) correlated to Gold. Similarly every Channel Up (green) is formed while the US10Y/DXY ratio gets neutralized.
Right now the ratio is on the rise, hence the Channel Down on Gold, and the price hit the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 11 months (since November 07 2022) and immediately reacted with a bounce.
At the same time, the 1W RSI hit the top of the 2-year Support Zone. Every time the RSI hit this Zone, while the US10Y/DXY ratio was rising, Gold started to form its market bottom. The only time this RSI Support Zone got hit and Gold didn't rise was when the ratio was declining (July 11 2022). Right now we have the conditions for a market bottom as the ratio is rising.
Next week will be critical as if it closes the candle in green and the RSI reverses, then we can see a 1-month bottom formation that will lead to the new Channel Up. If not, we can't rule a price as low as 1700.
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XAUUSD Time to see the first short-term rebound.On last week's Gold (XAUUSD) analysis we called it was time to finally break below the 1W MA50 (chart below) and it did in spectacular fashion, already hitting the 1850 target:
The price now almost hit the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) and being near the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the 5-month Channel Down, the conditions for a short-term (at least) rebound emerge. The 1D RSI hit 20.00, the lowest it has been in almost 7 years (since December 14 2016) and that enhances the probabilities of a rebound. The current Channel Down resembles that of 2022 and as you see all rebounds to Lower Highs hit at least either the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level or the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). We are therefore targeting the new 0.5 Fib at 1885 for the moment, unless the price hits the 1D MA50 first.
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WTI OIL Huge Cup and Handle?WTI Oil (USOIL) hit and broke last week the 93.75 Resistance (which was the October 10 & November 07 2022 Highs) but failed to stay above it and got aggressively rejected back below it. This emphatic rejection indicates that as long as the price doesn't close a 1W candle above the Resistance, the short-term trend has more probabilities of being bearish.
** Cup and Handle **
We often like to view our financial assets on a more long-term scale using larger time-frames. We can claim that the recent Channel Up since June has completed a Cup formation. What technically follows within this pattern is the formation of the Handle. If Oil is indeed trading on the Cup and Handle (C&H) pattern, then once the bottom of the Channel Up breaks (assuming we keep closing below the 93.75 level), it can start the formation of the Handle part.
** The importance of the MA levels **
This 1W chart shows also the important that the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), 1W MA100 (green trend-line) and 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) have been having in the past year or so. They act as Supports until broken and move to the next one and similarly as Resistances. As you can see the current bull run since June started after the 1W MA200 held repeatedly (closed above it 7 candles despite hitting and breaking it), then broke above the 1W MA50 that was holding since August 2022 and 1W MA100 that was holding since November 2022.
** So what's the target? Fibs in play? **
So as long as the conditions mentioned above are met and Oil starts forming the Handle, you can use the 1W MA100 (closing below it) as the break-out sell signal and target the 1W MA50 at $80.00. This is marginally above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, which has its own fair share of importance. Notice that the 1W RSI is just below the 70.00 overbought barrier.
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XAUUSD Time to finally break below the 1W MA50? How bad is it?Gold (XAUUSD) is about to test the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the week of December 26 2022. Last time it was nearly hit (February 20 - 27 2023) it supported the pull-back emphatically, and initiated a strong rebound.
Almost 5 months ago (May 4), when everyone in the market was jubilant about Gold's new All Time High, we warned the community (see chart below) of the high probability of a 1W MA50 correction if the the 1W candle failed to close above the 2075 Resistance, which is holding since the August 2020 High:
This is what happened as the price closed below the ATH Resistance, the 1W RSI got rejected exactly on the Lower Highs trend-line (additional sell signal), hit the initial 1975 target and broke below the 1D MA50. In the proccess, it turned the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) into Resistance and formed the Lower Highs trend-line that dictate the course of the downtrend.
This development (Lower Highs on top of a 1D MA100 Resistance) has been the characteristic of both previous corrections after fails to close above the 2075 level (August 2020, March 2022). On both sequences, Gold found the first Zone of Support within the 0.5 - 0.382 Fibonacci range. Our targets, always in the event of a close below the 1W MA50, are firmly placed (1850 and 1800) based on that Zone (we call it the High Volatility Zone) but this time is slightly different as we have to acknowledge the presence of the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which is currently at 1812.50 and rising continuously.
However the 1W MA200 was breached and the price even stayed below it for almost 2 months, last September (2022). This more than justifies a 1800 projection but best to pursue it with less risk after a 1W candle closing below the 1W MA200.
During this 3-year pattern, the bottom is already priced when the 1W MACD forms a Bullish Cross below the 0.00 mark. Right now it is marginally on it but with no signs of reversing. On both previous corrections the week that followed the 1W MACD Bullish Cross, the price also broke above the 1D MA100. If it breaks before that, it could be a sign of an early bearish invalidation.
Additional relevant material:
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XAUUSD Ichimoku supported within the Triangle.Gold (XAUUSD) is trading around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) after a Lower Highs trend-line at the top of 2-month Triangle. The MACD on the 1D time-frame has formed a Bullish Cross and as the green Ichimoku Cloud turned green, it waves a buy signal. Every time the Ichimoku turned green since July, Gold flashed a buy signal. As a result we expect one more rise towards at least the Lower Highs trend-line. Our target is 1943.
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WTI OIL Channel Up rejection at the top. More selling ahead?WTI Oil (USOIL) almost hit our $93 target on our last idea two weeks ago (see chart below) and yesterday reached the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 3-month Channel Up:
The first reaction is so far a rejection that has already taken the price to the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). This is the first contact with it in 3 weeks but it's not a confirmed sell yet as during the previous Higher Highs run it got breached several times and still rebounded. The confirmation came when it broke below the 4H MA100 (green trend-line).
As a result, we are only willing to take a confirmed break-out sell below the 4H MA100 and target $85.00 which is the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up (-8.68% from the top).
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COPPER Two year Triangle is about to break out!Copper (HG1!) has been trading within a Triangle pattern for more than 2 years and recently the price action has gotten so narrow that it prompts to a break-out soon. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been acting as the Pivot level while the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) had the last rejection on record on September 01.
The 1D RSI since the May 24 Low has been printing a similar price pattern to July - October 2022 (so far). That fractal was also using the 1D MA50 as the Pivotand after it broke its Resistance, it rose aggressively almost as high as the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. We will purse a more modest target, below the 1.5 Fib at 4.2000. The R/R is worth it as a break below the Higher Lows (bottom) of the Triangle will make us close the trade on minimum loss and open a sell instead targeting 3.5500 (Support 1).
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XAUUSD Golden Cross and the 1H MA50 are supporting this uptrend.Last time we looked at Gold (XAUUSD), it gave us two sell opportunities both of which hit their targets (see chart below):
The price has been rising since, supported by the 1H MA50 (blue trend-line) and on top of that, the 1H Golden Cross has been formed. Last time we saw that pattern was on August 23. On that fractal, once the 1H MA50 broke, the price pulled-back to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and then resumed the uptrend.
As a result, we are bullish already since the 1H MA50 is supporting. If it holds, we will simply add one more buy position when the pull-back hits the 0.5 Fib. In either case, the target is 1953 (Resistance 3).
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NATURAL GAS Short-term buy but expect long-term reversal soon.Natural Gas (NG!) is struggling to get past the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the short-term Resistance and at the same time is supported by the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). The long-term pattern is a Bullish Megaphone and besides the 1D MA100, the price action is supported by the pattern's bottom (Higher Lows trend-line).
Recently however the pattern that has emerged is a Head and Shoulders (H&S) and it remains to be seen if it establishes itself on the immediate price action, which technically means a sharp decline, as in theory it is a bearish pattern.
On the short-term, you can buy up to the Lower Highs trend-line and target 2.750. On the long-term we believe the upside is limited by the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is now on Resistance 2 (3.025) and most likely will reject any spike on Resistance 1 (2.865).
So on the long-term, if the price breaks and closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA100 and Higher Lows trend-line, we will open a long-term sell and target 1.950 (Support 3).
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