XAUUSD forming the first 4H Death Cross in 5 months!Gold (XAUUSD) broke below the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) and is forming today the first 4H Death Cross since January 12. As we mentioned on our previous analysis, we expect the yellow metal to trade sideways on the medium-term and that involves the price testing the May 03 Low on a potential contact with the 1D MA100 (green trend-line).
This will be a mirror trade of the previous Accumulation Phase (late 2023 - early 2024), when Gold made contact with the 1D MA100 on February 13 2024 and then immediately started the new Bullish Leg.
Our Target remains 2280.
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Commoditysignals
COPPER Going well according to our long-term plan.Last time we looked at Copper (HG1!), we established our long-term strategy (April 19, see chart below), which involves a new Bull Cycle, through a Channel Up pattern similar to 2020 - 2021:
So far the plan goes flawlessly, as the price hit the top of the (green) Channel Up and is now pulling back. The 1W MA50 is about to complete a Golden Cross with the 1W MA200, the first one since January 11 2021!
On the shorter term (current chart on 1D) the price is approaching the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the short-term Support but as with last time, we expect it to marginally break before Copper bottoms and makes a new Higher Low on the long-term Channel Up.
To those who missed an early buy, we recommend entering once the 1D RSI hits its Support Zone. Our medium-term Target is 5.200 (Resistance 1).
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NATURAL GAS Rejection at the top of the Falling WedgeNatural Gas (NG!) hit last week the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the long-term Falling Wedge pattern that started on the April 10 2023 Low and was immediately rejected back to the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
As long as it holds, this rejection indicates that technically, the new Bearish Leg should start. Our Target is 1.550 (just above Support 1). If however the trend reverses and gives a candle closing above the Lower Highs, we will take the sell's loss and buy instead, targeting 3.300 (projected 1W MA100 extension).
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XAGUSD continues to give excellent set-ups to trade.Silver (XAGUSD) couldn't have gone better on our last signal we gave (April 17, see chart below) as it did give us the pull-back inside Resistance Zone 1 that we wanted in order to buy and immediately rallied to the top of the Channel Up to hit our 32.00 Target:
Since the break-out, the metal entered a more aggressive Diverging Channel Up (blue), which after a Higher High, it pulls back to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and then rallies to the -0.5 Fib.
As a result, we will wait until the price approached the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again as it did on May 02 and then buy, targeting 35.000 (just below the -0.5 Fib and at the Top of the Channel Up).
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WTI OIL Bullish Divergence aiming higher.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been consolidating within the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) for a full month. We have previously seen the same king of consolidation in mid-2023 and then November 2023 - January 2024. On both occasions, the price then entered a medium-term Channel Up.
Also on all occasions, the 1D RSI was on Higher Lows, while the price has been on Lower Lows, which is an indication of a Bullish Divergence. It is the exact same formation that Oil is currently on. As a result, we turn bullish on Crude for the medium-term, targeting $84.00 (just above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and on the Lower Highs trend-line).
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XAUUSD Possible consolidation for the whole Summer.Gold (XAUUSD) is seeing strong selling this week following Monday's High, which was also an All Time High (ATH). The rejection took place very close to the Higher Highs trend-line that started back in early 2023.
So far this is just a technical pull-back to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since February 29, and not a stronger correction. Both the price action though and the 1D MACD patterns, resemble the trading sequences of April - May 2023 and November - December 2023. After the Higher High top, they both turned sideways for 3 months and both hit the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). The April - May 2023 even dropped lower but the September 2023 correction was done on fundamentals and not technical reasons.
As a result, we expect the next three months, i.e. the whole Summer to be at least a sideways price action/ consolidation, which by mid July may make contact with the 1D MA100. What this tells us is there will be opportunities to buy low and sell high in order to make profit on the medium-term.
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XAUUSD Short-term Channel Up.Gold (XAUUSD) is trading within a short-term Channel Up pattern since the May 03 Low, essentially throughout the whole month, and currently the price is consolidating below the 1H MA50 (blue trend-line).
Such consolidation within the 1H MA50 and the 1H MA100 (green trend-line) took place on every single Higher Low formation at the bottom of the Channel Up. At the same time, the 4H RSI hits its Higher Lows trend-line.
The minimum Bullish Leg % within this Channel Up has been +2.44% and the maximum +3.35%. As a result, we turn bullish now on Gold with a 2465 - 2485 Target Zone.
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WTI OIL Channel Down in full motion. WTI Oil (USOIL) eventually did give us the bearish break-out trade as per our last outlook (April 29, see chart below) following the first 4H Death Cross in 7 months and easily hit our 78.00 Target:
As you can see, the expected Channel Down was formed and the price has been consolidating on the Higher Lows trend-line and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) for 8 straight sessions. Once broken (1D candle closing below it), we expect the next Support to be tested, the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which is a long-term one as multiple bottoms have been priced just below it both in 2023 and 2024.
Each Bearish Leg of the current Channel Down has been around -7.95% so that is our next Target, $74.00, as a new Lower Low.
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XAUUSD Ideal level to start selling.Gold (XAUUSD) is being rejected since Friday right at the top of the emerging Channel Down and that is a Lower High. Even though Gold has officially started a new long-term Bull Cycle, it doesn't mean that the market won't deliver medium-term corrections that are technically much needed in order to get the trend going.
Quite the contrary, the current Bullish Megaphone resembles the pattern of November 2022 - May 2023, which after holding the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) half-way through, it eventually topped and broke below it, testing after that even the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
We will not speculate on such a long horizon but on the medium-term we do see this Channel Down or better yet Bearish Leg of the Bullish Megaphone eventually breaking below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and testing the 0.382 Fibonacci as part of a natural and healthy correction that will attract long-term buyers again and resume the bullish trend.
As a result, we turn bearih again today, targeting 2200 (Fib 0.382).
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WTI OIL Will it continue to drop?WTI Oil (USOIL) gave us an excellent sell signal last week (April 29, see chart below) following the first 4H Death Cross since October 10 2023, which easily hit our Target:
We now need to look at the longer-term time-frames for clues on the direction as short-term it turned bearish. Looking at the 1D time-frame though, we can clearly see that WTI is on a strong Support Cluster consisting of the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and 1D MA100 (green trend-line). The Higher Lows trend-line that started on the December 13 2023 bottom, is just below.
With the 1D RSI hitting its 30.00 oversold level and rebounded, we are bullish short-term, targeting 84.00 (the Lower Highs trend-line). If however we close a 1D candle below the Higher Lows, we will take the loss and turn bearish instead, targeting 71.00 (the 0.236 Fibonacci and just above the 3-year Higher Lows Zone. The risk is low on this strategy.
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XAUUSD This correction is far from over. What the US10Y shows.Gold (XAUUSD) completed on Friday the 2nd straight red 1W (weekly) candle for the first time since mid February. That was when the enormous 9 week rally started that only had to show 1 red week. Even though the long-term pattern is a Bullish Megaphone, the bad news for Gold is that this correction may be far from over and the US10Y (orange trend-line) makes a good case out of it.
The last time Gold was trading within a Megaphone and started to decline while the US10Y was rising (negatively correlated) was after the May 01 2023 High. As you can see, that was when the yellow metal started a slow and steady decline first to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (where it had its first rebound) and then just above the 0.618 Fib (where it bottomed and started the new Megaphone). Notice how despite the aggressive rise on the US10Y at the time, Gold had a steady decline.
Due to having entered a new long-term Bull Cycle, we don't expect it reaching prices this low but technically a pull-back to the 0.382 Fib would be a very healthy correction of the early 2024 rally. As a result our medium-term Target is 2200.
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XAUUSD Failed to reclaim the 4H MA50. Strong decline ahead.We expand on our April 15 idea (see chart below) on Gold (XAUUSD), where we discussed the 'necessity' for a medium-term technical pull-back based on its 5-year Cycles:
As you can see that correction happened and the new Bearish Leg of the long-term Bullish Megaphone is well underway. The price got rejected both yesterday and on Friday on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), while forming the first 4H MA50/100 Bearish Cross since February 13 2024.
We expect the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) to be tested shortly but the correction shouldn't stop there. It will either take the long way within the dashed Channel Down towards 2200 or hit that level earlier within the more aggressive blue Channel Down that will seek the dashed bold Higher Lows trend-line. Either way, our medium-term Target is 2200.
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WTI OIL 1st 4H Death Cross in 7 months. Will it turn bearish?WTI Oil (USOIL) made a solid (Higher) Low at the bottom of the Channel Up pattern and started rising as we discussed on our previous idea (April 22, see chart below):
We now need to take it a time-frame lower to 4H as on Friday the market formed the first 4H Death Cross (4H MA50 crossing below the 4H MA200) in almost 7 months (since October 10 2023). This has the capacity to invalidate the current 4-month bullish trend but only if Oil closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA50 (red trend-line).
As long as it doesn't, we remain bullish on WTI, targeting 94.00, which is at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up and marginally below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which is where the previous Higher High peaked.
At the same time, this is where the the previous Channel Up of July - September 2023 made the symmetrical Higher High, relative to the current proportion. As you can see, there is a strong degree of symmetry between the two fractals, even in terms of RSI, with the only notable difference (which as mentioned can be critical), being the 4H Death Cross.
If the price does close that 1D candle below the 1D MA50, we will take the loss on the buy and go short instead, targeting 78.00 (just above Support 1).
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XAUUSDGold time frame 4 hours
According to our analysis, we expect the price to reach our range and wait for the price reaction from there. In the 4-hour time frame, the trend has changed, so short trades have a higher percentage of profit than long trades. It is better to enter short trades to reach a strong demand range.
GASOLINE Short-term buy. Sell at the right time.Gasoline (RB1!) is on a 3-day bullish 1D candle run after testing and holding the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) this week for the first time since February 05. On the wider scale, this is the Bullish Leg of the 18-month Channel Down and it is approaching its top (Lower Highs trend-line).
As you can see, the Bullish Legs of this pattern share a certain degree of symmetry, so as it happened on April 12 2023, we expect the new Lower High to be priced near the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. That will also touch the internal Higher Highs trend-line. The symmetrical 1D MACD Bullish Cross of March 27 2023, was a signal that the Bullish Leg will soon come to an end.
As a result, on the 1.236 Fib we will turn bearish and target the bottom of the (dotted) Channel Up at 2.6000.
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XPDUSD Monumental buy at the bottom of the 6-year Cycle.Palladium (XPDUSD) is in the process of forming an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern as it approaches its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been unbroken as a Resistance since the week of October 10 2022. Once the 1W MA50 breaks, we will have a confirmed buy signal, whose first emergence was when the 1W RSI formed Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows, which is a Bullish Divergence.
We can see that this bottom is on a 6-year Cycle as the previous ones (January 11 2026 and December 01 2008) also took place on a 1W RSI Bullish Divergence forming an IH&S pattern. We expect Palladium to reach at least the 'Russia-Ukraine war peak' at 3450 by late 2025 the earliest or late 2027 the latest.
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Rising into 50% Fibonacci retracement resistance?XAG/USD is rising towards a resistance level which has been identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 27.861
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 28.872
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level
Take profit: 26.399
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
XPTUSD Strong Higher Low buy opportunity. 1D Golden Cross formedPlatinum (XPTUSD) gave us an excellent bottom buy signal last time (March 13, see chart below), as the metal entered a Channel Up pattern following the bottom just below 880.00:
Currently we are on the 2nd Bearish Leg of the Bullish Megaphone pattern that emerged and will complete a Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame today. As per the December 02 2023 Golden Cross, which was formed after a similar rebound, but on a more aggressive Channel Up instead of a Megaphone, we should be expecting another Higher High near the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. Our Target is 1060.
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XAG/USD rising towards 50% Fibo resistance, could it reverse?Price is rising towards a resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 27.861
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 28.872
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level
Take profit: 26.399
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
XAUUSD Technical profit taking started.Last week (April 15, see chart below), we discussed the 'necessity' of Gold (XAUUSD) for a medium-term technical pull-back based on its 5-year Cycles:
As you can see, we did get indeed the expected rejection at the top on Friday and this week we have started with almost a -5% already. The 1D RSI Double Topped on overbought territory and now is on a Lower Low. This RSI pattern since the October 06 2023 Low is very similar to the sequence that started on November 03 2022. As you can see on both occasions, Gold traded on Bullish Megaphones.
The 2022/23 Megaphone hit the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) once its RSI started printing the correction sequence it has now. In fact the 1D MA100 provided the last bounce on both Megaphones (February 14 2024 and March 09 2023).
As a result, we remain bearish on Gold, targeting 2200 (0.382 Fib and potential contact with the 1D MA200) on the medium-term. Ideally, the best level to buy again for the long-term would be when the 1D RSI hits the oversold barrier (30.00) again, but until then we will follow up with many updates.
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WTI OIL On the 1D MA50 & bottom of the Channel Up.WTI Oil (USOIL) hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) today for the first time since February 07 and touched the bottom of the long-term Channel Up, forming a Higher Low. This is only 2 weeks after the formation of a 1D Golden Cross, the first since August 22 2023.
That Golden Cross was also formed during a correction, which eventually kept the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) intact and initiated a new Bullish Leg towards the 2.0 and 2.382 Fibonacci extensions.
As a result, we remain bullish as long as Oil closes 1D candles above the 1D MA200, and target $94.00 (Fib 2.0 ext). If it closes even a single candle below it, we expect a new long-term Channel Down, similar to the one that was initiated after the September 28 2023 High, and we will take the small loss, open a short and target 71.50 (Support 1).
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COPPER New Bull Cycle confirmed. 6.7600 possible.Copper (HG1!) has emphatically broken above the last Resistance of the 2-year Bear Cycle as it smashed through the top of the long-term Triangle pattern. The same pattern kept Copper on a Bear Cycle up until June 2020 when it started the remarkable rally to the 5.000 High (1.786 Fibonacci extension).
As you can see on both fractals, the formation of a Death Cross on the 1W time-frame signaled the bottom (Feb-March 2020 is the COVID crash exception, if that hadn't happened, the Triangle could have even broken upwards earlier).
Our minimum Target on the emerging (green) Channel Up is 6.7600 (Fibonacci 1.618 extension).
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NATURAL GAS Can turn bullish on the short-term.Natural Gas (NG1!) has been posting Higher Lows, three so far since the February 20 Low, despite the fact that it remains within a Channel Down since the October 27 2023 High. This might be a short-term trend change similar to the Channel Up that started on the April 14 2023 Low following a sharp and long-term selling sequence. Notice also the Higher Lows Bullish Divergence on the 1D RSI patterns.
As long as the bottom of the (dotted) Channel Up holds, we will be bullish short-term, targeting the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) at 2.050. If the bottom of the Channel Down breaks, we will turn bearish, targeting the Lower Lows trend-line at 1.400. The risk is low on both sides.
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