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Cocoa

EW Analysis: COCOA May Remain SidewaysCOCOA is sideways for the last 10 years and seems like it will stay like that. Hello traders! Today we will talk about Cocoa and its price action from Elliott Wave perspective. Well, looking at the longer-term weekly chart, we can see Cocoa moving sideways for the last 10 years in the 3700 – 1700 range, ideally within a bigger bearish triangle pattern in wave »B« before we may see even more weakness into a wave C towards 1000 level. But, it is not ready yet, because sub-wave (E) is still missing, so we will probably see a recovery at the end of the year or in 2021 before a bigger sell-off. As you can see, in the shorter-term daily chart, we are currently tracking a three-wave A-B-C decline within wave (D) that can send the price down to the lower triangle line and 2000 – 1800 area. The only question is, either is sub-wave B already finished or will we see a retest of 2500 – 2700 resistance area before a decline into wave C to complete a higher degree wave (D). All being said, be aware of more weakness for Cocoa this year, but downside can be limited, so at the end of 2020 or at the beginning of 2021 we may see another, bigger recovery for the final wave (E). Trade well!
ICEUS:CC1!
by ew-forecast
‘Tis the season to be Chocolatey!While you’re enjoying the summer sun and clear skies back in SA paradise… I’m afraid I’m not. I’m trying to keep warm sitting inside a local restaurant in Greece with a cup of hot chocolate while I search for my next trade. And surprise, surprise, cocoa popped up on my radar… Here are three reasons why I’m buying cocoa and where I expect it to head next. Reason #1: We are all buying We are literally one month away from celebrating yet another Christmas. And this is the top time of year where you, me and countless consumers will be buying chocolates. This increase in demand, will have a positive impact on the price of cocoa… Here’s a statement that Jack Scoville, analyst at Chicago’s Price Futures Group for “soft” commodities, has to say that coincides perfectly with the season: “The weekly charts for cocoa imply that a significant rally is possible over the next few weeks,” Reason #2: Thank the weather Did you know two-thirds or 60% of the world’s supply of cocoa beans come from West Africa each year. This includes the Ivory Coast and Ghana. You see, as cocoa is an agricultural commodity – the demand, supply and prices all have an impact based on the weather conditions and crop diseases that prevail. Jack Scoville mentioned, for the incoming produce, that the harvest was active this week in the world’s largest growing region of West Africa, with good volume and quality. It was also confirmed that the weather was also great for produce, due to the rain levels that West Africa received. Jack then added, “The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers.” “The precipitation is a little less now so there are no real concerns about disease. Ideas are that the next crop will be very good. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are doing what they can do boost cocoa prices.” Reason #3: A new surcharge to boost the cocoa prices This surcharge will have more of an impact than you think. Take the leading cocoa manufacturers including Hershey, Mars, Ferrero Group, Nestle etc… Them and other companies depend on supplies from the Ivory Coast and Ghana for the beans. This new premium will not only lead to a rise in price but also a further increase in cash flow, production, create sustainability and will allow farmers to boost wages for their workers. And so the chocolate manufacturers have supported the two nations decision to add the $400 per ton surcharge. Now let’s get into the charts… Looking at the above daily chart of the spot Cocoa Futures price, we can see that since March 2019 the price has been moving in a sideways range between $1,640 and $1,940 (Shaded area). Each time the price touched the $1,940 high, it then retraced back ended up making an even higher low. This has formed what’s known as an Ascending Triangle. This positive formation shows prices touching the same high while making higher, low prices, until there is a upside breakout. This took place last week (red shaded area), which confirmed there was a lot more upside to come. In fact, we can now expect the upside momentum to continue which will take the cocoa futures price to the next high - See the analysis above...
ICEUS:CC1!Long
by Timonrosso
COCOA: On a multi month Higher High. How to trade it.Cocoa has been trading on a multi-year Channel Up since May 2017 with the 1D chart trading near the overbought territory (RSI = 70.555, MACD = 51.220, Highs/Lows = 144.4643). If the Channel stays intact then the price should pull back towards the 1D MA200 for a Higher Low near 2,365. If however it breaks as it did in March 2018 then it can easily reach 2,940 which is the 2 year high. We have identified 2,700 as this break out point. You may trade accordingly with a tight SL. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
ICEUS:CC1!
by InvestingScope
COCOA TO GO 'LONG' for the futureQuick chart for my followers, cocoa to go long, if you have been following my other publishes then you would understand my chart without yellow full details, there may be further downtrend on the bottom yellow line but overall cocoa is on the uptrend as it has hit top yellow line. Top yellow line at 2051 Bottom yellow line at 1800 Please study your indicators understand some, as they would help you determine a suitable entry point. use lower timeframe views such, Weekly and Daily view for a suitable entry point to go uptrend. Also, do set stop losses but be generous with how much room you allow for this due to candle wicks and there is also the possibility to hedge yourself, for more confident traders. All comments and questions welcome, if curious about indicators I use then feel free to inquire.
NYMEX:CJ1!Long
by Dani0