GCL POLY ENERGY ready for breakout and all time high*** This is just for educational purpose. It is not an investment advice. I am just sharing my own analysis.
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Climatechange
Agricultural Commodities Ripping! Food Prices to Rise in 2021!Ending my posts of major themes to look for in 2021, I want to end with the agricultural commodities. Particularly Corn, Wheat and Soybeans. The agricultural commodities are some of my favorite assets to trade, and I do not think many people pay too much attention to them. I focus on the three mentioned above, but you can also trade sugar, coffee, cocoa, orange juice (yes seriously), cattle, hogs, and pork bellies to name a few more.
Let me give you a quick run down on the ag commodities.
Corn is the most traded agricultural commodity, and is an important food source for both humans and animals. What makes Corn important is that it can be grown in a variety of climates and conditions, unlike the other agricultural commodities. Other uses include starches, corn oil and fuel ethanol. According to my handy dandy commodity handbook, approximately 35 million hectares are used exclusively for corn production world wide.
Just as Oil has different qualities (Brent, West Texas, Canadian West etc), Corn does as well. There are different grades but the most important are high grade number 2 corn and number 3 yellow corn.
The futures ticker for corn contracts is ZC. The top 5 producers of Corn in the world are: The United States, China, Brazil, Mexico and India (Canada makes it in 9th place).
Corn has had an amazing run since June. We will get to the why when at the end of this post, but pay attention to the commodity charts. These are all going to be LONG term weekly charts. You can see that Corn is breaking out, and in fact, will confirm a breakout with this weeks close, which occurs today. Lot of room higher to go in 2021. The breakout zone will be our support, and as long as we remain above, Corn moves higher.
Wheat is the second most produced agricultural commodity. Rice comes in at third for those that are interested. No country necessarily dominates wheat production a la Saudi Arabia with Oil and Kazakhstan with Uranium.
China, India, Russia, the United States, and France produce the most wheat in the millions of tons. Canada, Australia, Germany, Pakistan, and Ukraine also boast significant production.
The future contract ticker for Wheat is ZW.
Wheat on the weekly is setting up to breakout. Just like Corn, we would confirm a breakout on the weekly chart by the end of today.
Finally, Soybeans. Perhaps the more ‘mainstream’ financial media agricultural commodity that has seen plenty of coverage due to the US-China trade deal. Part of the phase 1 deal was for China to increase their purchases of US Soybeans.
I am focusing on the the whole soybean, but most soybeans are used for soybean oil and soybean meal.
The United States dominates the Soybean market, composing 50% of the total global production. Brazil comes in second at around 20%. Many analysts predicted Brazil to be the big winner in a US-China trade war spat, as China could look to Brazil for more Soybean exports.
The futures contract for Soybeans is ZS. Let’s take a look at the other traded forms of soybeans which have their own futures ticker.
Soybean Oil is a vegetable oil and is one of the most used culinary oil in the world. Soybean Oil is also popular as a biodiesel. Believe it or not, but there are cars that have engines which can convert from regular diesel to Soybean Oil during production. They are known as ‘frybrids’. The futures ticker for Soybean Oil is ZL.
Soybean Meal is a quick one. Whatever is left from the extraction of Soybeans into Soybean Oil can be converted into Soybean Meal. This is used for high-protein, high-energy food for feedstock for cattle, hogs, and poultry. The futures contract for Soybean Meal is ZM.
Soybeans have been ripping in 2020. Again, China demand and the US-China Trade war headlines play a large part, but there was some other factors which we will discuss soon. Just like Corn and Wheat, Soybeans is set to confirm yet another breakout with a weekly candle close today.
The agricultural commodities do not get the attention they deserve, and as you can see, they have made huge moves. For traders, they present a great trade opportunity due to the volatility, but also add on some more risk. Consider at least watching them if you do not want to trade them.
M readers know I am extremely bullish on the agricultural commodities and agriculture in general. Jim Rogers is the one who got me excited about this sector. His argument is that most young people do not want to become farmers anymore, and that the average age of farmers is well above 60. Governments may need to create larger incentives to get young people to take up farming.
I see some issues and challenges for agriculture, but will be rectified by human ingenuity. The first issue is soil. A lot of soil sucks due to the pesticides and other chemicals we use. If the soil is not great, the crop will not have the full dose of nutrients and could lead to health issues down the road. As many of you are aware, the organic food movement is a huge trend, and will grow year by year. Soil replenishment will be big. I have head some things in the past about zinc being used to replenish soil, particularly in California. Phosphorus and Potash also come in mind. In fact, some foresee a phosphorus faming crisis.
A big issue for farming has been climate change. Obviously farming is cyclical. Winter has been lingering longer, especially on the East Coast. Farmers tend to await for certain birds to return to let them know Spring is here and it is time to plant crops. But Spring has been coming later while Winter lingers longer. Climate change will continue to disrupt agriculture and this could lead to a shortage of crops.
In fact, this is the primary reason for the spike in Corn and Soybeans this year. Iowa is where the majority of these crops are grown in the US. Millions of acres were destroyed due to the storm in Iowa in August. This has led to spikes in agricultural commodities, and some say, points to a food crisis in 2021.
Finally, something not many people consider are the ramifications of green energy. This info I learned from Peter Zeihan’s book, “Disunited Nations“. Highly recommended for anyone with an interest in geopolitics and where the world is going in the future.
Green energy is coming. We all know it. Governments will be spending a lot for green infrastructure. Due to the fiscal policy required to combat covid, taxes need to go up. The best way is through green taxes because they know the people will not complain. Government will say these taxes are going to be used for green infrastructure which will aid in an economic recovery and creating jobs.
The issue, as Mr. Zeihan states, is that solar panels and wind turbines need to be put in areas that are very sunny and/or windy. These areas tend to be where the best agricultural land is situated. So nations would have to sacrifice agriculture for energy. In his book, Zeihan states that there only a few nations which can come out as winners in this predicament. China is not one of them.
Do not panic, a lot of these issues can be remedied. In house and Greenhouse farming can be a way to cope with the effects of climate change and unpredictable weather patterns. Vertical integrated farming can be a solution to allow for green energy infrastructure to be built in the best agriculture lands, and can also be a solution for nations that do not have much agricultural lands. So yes there will be issues, but human ingenuity will get us through it. The question is how long will it take?
I want to end of with Covid. It seems we are setting up for a food crisis next year. Tons of articles about supply chain disruptions due to covid and worsening food insecurity for many nations. If this winter turns out to be a dark winter due to covid cases, the likelihood of empty shelves increases.
A lot of this could also have an impact on the prices of agricultural commodities. Canada is already preparing for this. In Canada’s Food Price Report 2021, bread, meat and vegetable prices are set to rise between 3-5% in 2021. The average Canadian family will pay up to $700 more for food in 2021.
The agricultural charts are pointing to higher food prices. Covid and Climate will have impacts, and hence why I am bullish on this sector going forward.
Major climate change alarmist defects, apologizes for the scareGetting proven right again, I like it. You know you keep hearing you "can't be right all the time". You can. What you cannot do is predict with 100% accuracy what idiots are going to do. Even taking into account famous & hyped company being overvalued, as well as latest technology ones. You can't tell if you're human when suckers will stop buying Tesla (hype company and "new" 200 years old company) at 100 times its valuation. But being always right about reality, about hard facts ye that's easy.
Climate fearmongers are defecting. What has gotten into them? Remorse? They believed the lies but those got so big they started questionning them? Maybe they saw the wind change direction and are following the new trend? Maybe they're afraid their extreme ridiculous fearmongering has started losing them support? Maybe the organisations saw Trump defund the WHO and as good scammers they want to make sure their primary goal is fulfilled: getting money? Or maybe they don't want to be laughed at in the future.
Let me present to you Mike Shellenberger, a major climate change promoter. Time magazine Hero of the Environment, winner of the 2008 Green Book Award, founder and president of Environmental Progress, an organisation behind several public campaigns. So one of their top guys. How satisfying it is to write this.
He recently released a book revealing the hoax, and a few days ago on Forbes he wrote an article where he apologized for the climate scare. Of course you know what happened, the article was immediately deleted and he is now a bad person. The article was reposted on the environmentalprogress.org and has not been cancelled since, you know, it's his site and all.
Talking of the media dirty lies, it's getting pretty cold again damn, was cold in June - not a word by the media - then it started getting a little hot and OH MY GOD GLOBAL WARMING GO GO GO 5000 ARTICLES ARE OUT aaaaand nope, cold again, so media silence again 🤣. It's just so ridiculous.
He is getting compared to Trump and braindead journalists that write about successful people and get envious whine that he is just trying to get people to argue rather than "look at the real issues" and he is just looking for attention. Haha.
The defector made a list of climate hoax false claims:
1- Humans are not causing a “sixth mass extinction”.
2- The Amazon is not “the lungs of the world”
3- Climate change is not making natural disasters worse
4- Fires have declined 25% around the world since 2003
5- The amount of land we use for meat — humankind’s biggest use of land — has declined by an area nearly as large as Alaska
6- The build-up of wood fuel and more houses near forests, not climate change, explain why there are more, and more dangerous, fires in Australia and California
7- Carbon emissions are declining in most rich nations and have been declining in Britain, Germany, and France since the mid-1970s
8- Netherlands became rich not poor while adapting to life below sea level
9- We produce 25% more food than we need and food surpluses will continue to rise as the world gets hotter
10- Habitat loss and the direct killing of wild animals are bigger threats to species than climate change
11- Wood fuel is far worse for people and wildlife than fossil fuels
12- Preventing future pandemics requires more not less “industrial” agriculture
Yup, yup, yup, yup, yup, yup, yup, yup, yup, yup, yup and yup.
Geee, I feel bad now, I did hours of research... All I had to do was wait to get it all for free, 0 mental effort.
Here you have it. Feel free to enjoy looking and laughing at dumb sheep shout "climate denier" at this guy.
The world will not stop using Oil. In particular west Africa (the gold coast) should develop faster as the westerners lose their grip on them, preventing them from using fossil fuels.
Of course this takes time, the reversal trend of climate alarmism has only started. People started having doubts and doing their own research (including me) when the fearmongering got to really absurd levels "we all gunna die we must sacrifice the babies to appease the sun god".
Oil will remain cheap during the depression, then as economies recover, price will go up. No agriculture countries (Zimbabwe) and in particular no agriculture and heavilly reliant on Oil countries (Algeria) will starve to death, but it will be followed by a big bright recovery.
Even the biblical black death in Europe was followed by a mighty recovery.
Edit: Brainwashed idiots love to come up with incredible arguments such as "Ooga booga gravity is just a theory so go jump off a tall building then"
Here is how to humiliate them: Let them know that Newton theory of gravity was WRONG. Einstein proved that it was wrong. They'll be in denial and still argue but if there are other people around they should point at the clown and laugh with you.
There is a cure. The real reason why it is ignored.Recently someone has digged to find the virus probably started in a lab in Wuhan, and the CCP has tried covering their tracks.
Now it is my turn! Almost every one by now must have heard of a cure. And we are told that this problem is very serious and dangerous.
So why are we not hearing much of this cure, and why are politicians and the media criticizing it? I found out why ;)
First of all I read in a science magazine that a vaccine was ready to be mass produced, but I didn't look into that much, I haven't heard about it in the media except maybe FOX news (wonder why they absolutely dominate ratings and have far more viewers than cnn & msnbc combined).
In France you got this genius doctor, Didier Raoult, director of a big infectious disease research & treatment unit. Decorated, renowned worldwide and everything.
His team and him have tried antivirals - very well known antivirals that have been used for over half a century on billions of people - and have had spectacular results.
And other people that tried this had similar results. On 100% of trial patients. So, what are the odds this is all a coincidence? Very very low.
The world is on lockdown and we are said to be facing an emergency, and there is a cure that very likely works wonders. The skeptics that want more tests could have had thousands of tests by now, but haven't done anything like this!
This is suspicious. Why would so many be pushing back against this? When the top experts are telling you to just go for it and they swear it works.
Well I did my research and I think I found why. You might be shocked.
1- Didier Raoult has been called a "Trumpian that downplayed the virus". Ye apparently he said that a worldwide lockdown was medieval and unecessary. I don't know where the Trumpian comes from. Probably just that he's not part of their TDS club, and Trump has shown alot of interest in the cure.
Now, "downplaying the virus" is a complete taboo that sends emotional people into shock. From 0 care to Full Tin Foil hats.
2- This is it. AHEM!
Ah, yet another genius world class top scientist past 60 (so has nothing to lose) that is an *drum roll* evil climate denier.
Funny how many people in his shoes are part of this "3% of nut deniers".
I wonder who I would rather listen to:
- Eminent decorated astophysicists, microbiologists, meteorlogists, with 200 IQ that made huge leaps forward, and are climate skeptics
- A high school dropout, out of touch politicians that keep screeching "12 years left", celibrities that cannot solve an addition, and Bill Nye the science guy
Ye I really wonder who I would rather trust with my life and the future of humanity.
3- He has warned Africans against the dangers of "goodwill charity vaccines". The charitable west wants to use them as guinea pigs.
Talking about guinea, here is an article from Ghana (so LITERALLY tested as guinea humans):
www.ghanaweb.com
Little remark on the side:
I think africans are starting to realize they got scammed when they chose socialism and in particular anti business laws.
Some european countries are qualified of socialist (france denmark sweden) idk if they are or not but what I know is they do not prevent business finance & markets operate well with no restriction.
In alot of african countries it is much harder to start and operate a business than it was in the soviet union.
Add to this competition from whites that want to feel better and send free goods "charity is good".
Add to this africans looking for jobs/money/a future climbing on boats to come to europe etc.
Some african countries have started to change and are more balanced now, some are going in the direction of the far right.
If Europe and NA have a depression they won't send charity there to clear their conscience, and africans won't migrate there as much, so without charity doing so much harm to africans, and with their most active youth still at home, the paradigm shift can only accelerate. There might be some far right (not much far left because I think they had it with the far left), there might be some genocides not much we can do about this unfortunatly, wars revolutions etc.
Rwanda already had their revolution & genocide (not saying it is a good thing) and started transitioning, and for the past years had close to 10% yearly GDP growth.
One of the highest in the world.
I've already talked about this. Might already be good investments there, idk if I can forgive rwanda myself.
When africa paradigm starts shifting, we will have there countries that are extremely undervalued.
In my eyes, the USA are already done. Things should deteriorate, and when there is blood in the street (either us indices down 75% or mega inflation), which should bring down foreign investments too, I expect some extremely cheap and solid companies abroad.
So anyway, now you know. A damn arrogant climate denier! And Trump has spoken positively of him! We can't have that!
I am glad and proud I have someone like this on my side, and the struggling low IQ prefrontal cortex deprived violently oppose us.
Would these TDS sufferers rather DIE than let a "climate denier woooooo" be the hero and get attention? We must make him look bad.
They say they care about lives. Doesn't look like it.
