USOIl short and only short1.There is no buyers.
2.Strong day down trend.
3. Volum on report hour is hige but price can't move hige.
Enter 66.05
SL 66.70
TP 63.00
Cl!
CL Futures approaching areas of support - possible shortPersonal thoughts on the possible direction of the Dec 18 CL contract.
Is oil trying to form a bottomDespite all the geopolitical noise and the big build in oil inventory in this week report, WTI has failed to print a new low.
It's true that WTI has broken the upward channel on the weekly time frame which started from sub 42$ back on Jun 2017 as in the picture below. ideally a retest of the channel should happen to confirm the long-term reversal but I believe bulls are trying to go against all odds.
In short, a 1H candle closing above 68 is the 1st warning, as it would violate the midterm down slop in my chart and suggest the bull trend continuation
On higher time frames
USOIL: Correction in a monthly trendI'd reccomend to stand aside, or, look to trade the extremes of the range if you are adept at chop trading. In my case, I'm more of a trend trader, but could look to trade $PBR on dips to support and exit when valuation is stretched again, after an overbought rally...Or stocks like $OXY, or refineries, like $MPC, $PBF, etc.
If you expect oil to make a big move, you will get disappointed and probably buy into fake breakouts multiple times, to then get tempted to sell or flip short on fake break downs...The green vertical line on chart is the estimated time required to start a big monthly trend again. Until then, expect a volatile sideways range.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Crude Oil For a long time I didn't look at oil, but I see that we are approaching a strong resistance line that begins in 2008. I also saw an rising wedge - a reversal patterns. We will see this fall until April 2019. I do not know with what it will be fundamentally connected, I do not much look at the fundamental factors. But the fact that we will fall I'm sure. We are also near a very strong resistance level of 61.8%
USOIL short opportunityShort term period began.
Strong day resistence 75,49
We have potential mirror level 72,89
Enter 71,37
Stop 72,37
TP 69,20
USOIL short oportunityStrong sells still on chart USOIL
Back test of 68,30, from this point we will see strong sell again
Entry 68,33
SL 69,33
TP 66,14
Clear Channel BacktestWorking with channels to look at things, you can see that sharp movement on friday afternoon backtested the mini bear channel we were in, still have a second bear channel to pass thru.
Long Nasdaq and long CrudeNasdaq strong channel support, needs to hold here.
Oil on strong support as well.
Note how both candle bodies are large and far outside lower bollinger band on the 4 hour.
This implies by consequence that DXY or USD is about to tank.
CL breakdown continues powerfully, big Daily levels in sight nowUpdate to a previous post I made about the CL level breakdown.
Bias remains short until proven otherwise. Flat, no clear entries for me until tomorrow morning when we look at premarket price action and range.
Yesterday's trade posted to twitter. 11.25R despite mismanaging the hell out of it.
It's imperative you learn to take wholesale entries, understand context, and know when to pull the trigger and when to HAPPILY stand aside.
D1 bias, H1 setup, short term executionI'll post my Ninjatrader charts for trade entries. This is the kind of setup I want to wait for vs fighting the grind on NQ today.
I'm a momentum trader, and momentum comes from traps and/or tipping points. I don't want price to ever come back to my entry and I don't believe in wide stops.
Before taking entries, ask yourself about the market state. Is it grinding? If so, you're going to get killed with constant retests of your entries, general noise etc. What's the point getting into a position you think is going to be retested (I'm speaking as a daytrader, not a swing trader...).
If you're getting stuck overtrading, ask yourself this:
Do I really expect this trade to move to my target?
If there's a preceding trap AND contraction AND empty space ahead of you...that's where the money's made.
Bullish CL Crude Oil Swing TradeIn January of this year, a clear and well-respected swing zone began to form. The bottom of this zone held very strong support yesterday and today, and broke clean through the top of the zone today. I see a good entry in a potentially very high upside trade. There is a resistance zone from ~$70.80-71.80, so my soft target is right below that zone. However, I am not setting a limit order and will wait a day or two as we approach and react to that zone. I want to allow this trade to run and hopefully see new yearly highs.
Reversal daily candle in the resistance zone will be a signal to sell. RSI entering overbought will be one signal to sell.
Entry: $67.59
Stop (break of strong support zone): $65.30
Target (before next zone): $70.49
Buy oil they said you will be rich!LIELooks like ocmpleted elliot wave with bear divergence
68.92
66 first target
50
Cl Crude Oil Unclear, Potentially Ready To Finish 5th Wave DownCrude might be on wave 4 ready to dump down to the fib extension that matches with a prior naked point of control region.
However, it's not clear that wave 5 has started yet. It really could do anything, however it if does dump down then I will not be looking for shorts below the target region until after a correction up.
Crude looks bearishClues
(1) ascending wedge in downtrend is bearish (but agreeably the next major trend is bullish)
(2) price where a large resistance line exists and a former support line is now acting as resistance
I think it would be wiser to wait and buy when price goes back down to the stronger trend support line (in black).
That said, any short position here should have a tight stop.
Bear
Here is how I envision the short trade to go if you were to take it right now.
Bull
Here is the bullish case - buying the breakout retest.
CRUDE OIL WAVE 3 SETUP Assalamualaikum & Hi Traders!
Key level = 75.27
We are tracking a recognizable setup of wave 3 on crude oil.
Bounce in price for wave (2) is already at 50% fibonacci level compare to wave (1) (declining impulsive movement from 75.27).
Breaking 67.80 will give us indication that wave (2) is already in place.
As for now, my personal view is bias to the downside and key level = 75.27 must hold for this wave 3 bearish idea.
Does the uptrend continue?If MPP (S1) functions as a support line, think long.
The first limit is 70.00
The second limit is under MPP (P) 70.77
The third limit is under YPP (R2) 72.62
I would be grateful if you like it idea,give me follow or agrees!
------------------------- --------------------------
Brown thick line: Yearly Pivot Points (YPP in the text)
Light blue thick line: Monthly Pivot Points (MPP in the text)
Green thin line: Weekly Pivot Points (WePP in the text)
Indigo thick line: Horizontal line or Trend line seen by weekly or monthly
Indigo thin line: Horizontal line or Trend line seen by 4hourly or daily
Indigo dotted line: outstanding round number.
Red thick line: Untrustworthy line for me
Red curve: EMA 20 close
Indigo curve: EMA 200 close
Green curve: EMA 800 close
Black curve: EMA 1600 close
x mark: Line which may not function
------------------------- --------------------------
Does the uptrend continue?If MPP (S1) functions as a support line, think long.
The first limit is 70.00
The second limit is under MPP (P) 70.77
The third limit is under YPP (R2) 72.62
I would be grateful if you like it idea,give me follow or agrees!
------------------------- --------------------------
Brown thick line: Yearly Pivot Points (YPP in the text)
Light blue thick line: Monthly Pivot Points (MPP in the text)
Green thin line: Weekly Pivot Points (WePP in the text)
Indigo thick line: Horizontal line or Trend line seen by weekly or monthly
Indigo thin line: Horizontal line or Trend line seen by 4hourly or daily
Indigo dotted line: outstanding round number.
Red thick line: Untrustworthy line for me
Red curve: EMA 20 close
Indigo curve: EMA 200 close
Green curve: EMA 800 close
Black curve: EMA 1600 close
x mark: Line which may not function
------------------------- --------------------------
