AUDCHF 1D Golden Cross signaling a decline. Best sell in market.The AUDCHF pair has just formed a Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame but even though it is theoretically a bullish structure, it hasn't historically behaved as such for this pair. We view its effect on the 1W time-frame in order to go as back in time as possible and get conclusions.
In the past 10 years (since the May 2014 1D Golden Cross, which was bullish) there have been 5 such formations, all of which made the pair peak either before or on the Cross and delivered a Lower Low, in some instances even with brutal sell-offs.
In the last 2 occurrences, the 1D Golden Cross started Channel Down declines that both hit at least the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) again before any trend change. As a result, we comfortably turn bearish now on AUDCHF, targeting the 1D MA200 by August.
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Chf
AUD/CHF Possible Bearish Scenario
Today, the RBA meeting spoke neutrally about AUD. Without any possible Hawkish scenarios, AUD is not bullish nor bearish either.
But since USD is wiping every minor currency in the market, AUD has been affected too.
Currently, We are bearish on AUD/CHF.
Our technical view has been shown in the chart.
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Thanks For Reading
Team Fortuna
-RC
(Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
EURCHF: Very Bullish Outlook 🇪🇺🇨🇭
EURCHF is trading in a strong bullish trend on a daily.
After the pair set a new higher high, it retraced to a solid rising trend line.
Analyzing the reaction of the price to that,
I spotted a double bottom pattern on a 4H time frame.
With the release of CHF/EU fundamentals this morning,
the pair successfully violated its neckline.
We can expect a bullish movement at least to 0.9773
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
USDCHF in 2023 with a rather erratic downtrendIn Q1, two central banks that have previously used negative interest rates made surprising decisions. The Bank of Japan exited negative rates, while the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly cut their benchmark interest rate. The SNB may continue to ease further due to low inflation forecasts and weak growth. In contrast, the Fed wants more confidence in consistent inflation towards the 2% target before taking action.
CONTRASTING FUNDAMENTALS PRESENT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR OANDA:USDCHF IN Q2
The SNB's rate cut may prompt other central banks to do the same. While the Swiss Franc may face currency depreciation, Switzerland's low inflation justifies the decision to cut rates.
The strong franc makes Swiss exports less competitive than goods from countries with a weaker exchange rate. Switzerland can handle any imported inflation resulting from the rate cut due to low inflation levels, but it is unlikely to be significant given the small 25 basis point cut.
CENTRAL BANK POLICY COULD EXTEND BULLISH OANDA:USDCHF SETUPS IN Q2
Market expectations foresee a strong chance (78%) of another 25-bps rate cut from the SNB in June and if the likelihood of that second cut gains momentum, perhaps on softer inflation or weaker GDP, the franc may depreciate further as markets price in such an outcome.
The Fed maintained their projection of three rate cuts for 2024. The Fed's dot plot, based on the median value of 19 estimates, suggests hesitation in easing financial conditions due to strong US data. If the data remains strong, the dollar may be supported in Q2.
THE TRADE: LONG OANDA:USDCHF UPON IMPROVED ENTRY POINT
USD/CHF spent most of 2023 trending lower in a rather choppy fashion, but at the turn of the new year fortunes reversed. The pair traded higher and eventually broke above trendline resistance on the back of the surprise cut by the SNB. The guidance to this trade suggests looking to enter the developing uptrend at a better level due to the sharp ascent at the end of Q1. Another sign to wait for a better entry level appears via the rejection of higher prices at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2023 decline. A move back down to 0.8829 would reveal a retest of trendline support (prior resistance), whereafter, a bullish continuation may provide a higher probability trade.
A level to consider includes 0.9085 which serves as a tripwire for continued bullish price action. Thereafter, upside targets comprise of 0.9245 and 0.9473. A retest of the late 2023 low would invalidate the bullish setup.
BUY TRADE SETUP ON USDCHFHey Traders,
Check out this technical analysis on USDCHF; it appears to be undergoing a small pullback, potentially indicating a bullish momentum continuation.
However, I would recommend waiting for a proper retest of the broken key level before considering a buy-trade entry.
Alternatively, there may be an opportunity for a sell trade if the market breaches the evident support area.
Keep a close eye on this.
HelenP. I Swiss Franc can rebound from support level to $0.9075Hi folks today I'm prepared for you Swiss Franc analytics. Some time ago price made little correction movement, after which turned around and in a short time rose to support 2, which coincided with the support zone and started to trades in this area. Later, CHF broke support 2 and made a retest, after which rebounded and tried to rise more but failed and declined back to support 2, which moment coincided with the trend line. Then the price rebounded from this line and made impulse up to support 1, which coincided with one more support zone and even entered to this area, but at once turned around and quickly declined below. But some time later, CHF finally broke support 1, made a retest, and continued to rise to 0.9070 points, after which and recently fell to the support zone, which coincided with the trend line. Now, the price continues to trades near this line and I expect that Swiss Franc will fall to the support level and then rebound up. For this reason, I set my target at the 0.9075 level. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Sell NZDCHF Rising WedgeThe NZD/CHF pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a rising wedge pattern. This pattern, despite an initial upward angle, is often seen as a bearish reversal signal.
Key Points:
Rising Wedge Breakout: The price has been trading within a rising wedge pattern characterized by converging upward trendlines. While the initial trend appears bullish due to the rising trendlines, this pattern can often be a bearish reversal signal. The recent break below the lower trendline signifies a potential confirmation of a downtrend continuation.
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 0.5425, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels: The initial bearish target lies at 0.5390, which represents the support level before the wedge formation. Further downside targets could be determined using other technical analysis methods like Fibonacci retracements or extensions.
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above the broken resistance line of the wedge, ideally around 0.5445. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you
USDCHF: Overbought and at the top of the Channel Down.USDCHF is overbought on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 74.650, MACD = 0.007, ADX = 47.655) as it hit the top of the yearly Channel Down. That is exactly on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, where the LH prior was always priced, also after an approximately +8.50% rise. The 1D RSI is making a reversal inside the overbought zone and we are about to form a 1D Golden Cross, which last time emerged after the LH was made. This is a strong bearish signal combination. First we are targeting the 0.618 Fibonacci (TP1 = 0.8600) and if by then the price remains under the 1D MA50, we will extend selling to the bottom of the Channel Down (TP2 = 0.82500) going the full -9.40% distance.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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CHFJPY Hit the 1D MA200 after 1 year!The CHFJPY pair almost hit the 172.500 Target that we set on our previous call (December 19 2023, see chart below):
Since then it has pulled back significantly, giving rise to a new Channel Up pattern. The major development is that it is about to touch the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since April 06 2023.
We are prepared to buy after it breaks, at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up, or if the 1D RSI hits the bottom of its Channel Down first, and target the Higher Highs at 173.500.
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EURCHF Wait for the perfect long-term Sell.The EURCHF pair is trading within a Channel Down pattern since the September 26 2023 Low. The current Bullish Leg is approaching the first 1D Golden Cross since February 06 2023, which was formed after the last Lower High on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension.
That (Fib 1.5 ext) is the ideal sell entry, which is currently at 0.9900 but the Risk/ Reward Ratio is good enough for a long-term sell even on the current levels. Our Target is the Channel's median at 0.95650, a little over the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
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NZDCHF Possible Sells ?I'm probably crazy, Yeah I know
What's up folks Brandon here. Today I have some possible sells on NZDCHF, I think sells just make overall sense as none of the data I have taken in builds my confidence in a buy.
Furthermore it feels like a buy seems to obvious. I am extremely cautious of when a set up feels obvious. I like to go against the grain, and No that doesn't mean I am simply interested in doing the exact opposite of what I think everyone is doing. It simply means trying to have my own opinion, one that isn't afraid of being judged because it is different.
I'm not here to be liked, I'm here to win trades, and even if this trade doesn't win, that's fine there will be others, at least I know I've tried to have a unique perspective on what it is I am seeing
Let's see what happens on NZDCHF in the next few hours or so
USDCHF - Price can little correct and then continue move upHi guys, this is my overview for USDCHF, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some days ago price entered a rising channel, where it declined to support line and then bounced up to $0.8580 level.
Then price broke this level and later made retest, after which CHF rose to $0.8880 level, but at once bounced below.
Price declined to support line of rising channel and then made upward impulse back to $0.8880 level and broke it.
After this movement, CHF fell to support area, but soon turned around and continued to move up.
Not long ago, Swiss Franc rose a little and started to fall, so I think that price can fall almost to support level.
Also then CHF can turn around and continue to move up to $0.9130 resistance line of rising channel.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Usdchf, might expect some pullback..ButHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
But in general for Usdchf i am looking to long
Do check out my stream video for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
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USDCHF - Following The Trend📉Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 USDCHF has been overall bearish, trading within the falling channel in blue.
Currently, USDCHF is approaching the upper bound of the channel acting as a non-horizontal resistance.
Moreover, it is retesting a resistance marked in green.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the blue trendline and green resistance.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #USDCHF approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
USDCHF:Potential Upsides as we approach the FOMCHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDCHF for a buying opportunity around 0.88400 zone, USDCHF is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 088400 support and resistane area
adding a fundamental layer, the last CPI and PPI both came hot and the labour market is solid, if Fed goes hawkish as anticipated we may see USDCHF breaking previous highs.
Trade safe, Joe.
USDCHF Short IdeaMARKET PHASE
OANDA:USDCHF is in a long term downtrend (daily) with a short term corrective structure that has been taking place (4 hour).
AREA OF VALUE
Price continued to break new highs within this corrective structure. Eventually, price reached an area where sellers stepped in, resulting in a buildup of liquidity (buy stops, longs, short stop losses) above the corrective structure swing highs. Price violently moved up to trigger the buy stops (liquidity) to pair against the sell orders needed to take price down. Price has started it's initial move down but due to the velocity of the downward move, it's gapped some orders around 0.88378. Price is likely to retrace to this level before continuing downwards.
TRADE
I will be entering short on OANDA:USDCHF with the following parameters:
Sell Limit: 0.88378
Stop Loss: 0.88543
Take Profit: 0.88048
CADCHF Short IdeaMARKET PHASE
OANDA:CADCHF is in a long term downtrend (daily) with a short term corrective structure that has been taking place (4 hour).
AREA OF VALUE
Price continued to break new highs within this corrective structure. Eventually, price reached an area where sellers stepped in, resulting in a buildup of liquidity (buy stops, longs, short stop losses) above the corrective structure swing highs. Price violently moved up to trigger the buy stops (liquidity) to pair against the sell orders needed to take price down. Price has started it's initial move down but due to the velocity of the downward move, it's gapped some orders around 0.65272. Price is likely to retrace to this level before continuing downwards.
TRADE
I will be entering short on OANDA:CADCHF with the following parameters:
Sell Limit: 0.65272
Stop Loss: 0.65397
Take Profit: 0.65022
Sell USDCHF Channel BreakoutThe USD/CHF pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined bearish channel pattern. This technical setup suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside and a higher likelihood of further declines in the coming minutes or hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 0.8830, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels: Initial bearish targets lie at the previous support levels within the channel, now acting as potential resistance zones: 0.8798 and 0.8770. Further downside targets could be determined using other technical analysis methods like Fibonacci retracements or extensions.
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above the broken support line of the channel, ideally around 0.8855. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you
USDCHF Struggling on the 1W MA50. Long-term bullish above it.The USDCHF pair is on very critical crossroads as for the past 5 weeks it has been testing the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) but has so far failed to close a 1W candle above it. Going back to late September 2023, we can see that the 1W MA50 has been again tested for successive weeks, but again failed to close a candle above it. In fact the last time it did was back on the week of October 31 2022, which was during the previous Top on the Lower Highs trend-line of the 8-year Bearish Megaphone pattern.
As a result, as long as the pair fails to close that weekly candle above the 1W MA50, we 'have' to stay bearish on the medium-term, targeting just above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at 0.8500.
If however we do get that 1W closing above the 1W MA50 delivered, we will turn bullish long-term, despite the presence of the Inner Lower Highs and the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), as in early 2021, and target the top of the Bearish Megaphone at 0.97000.
Notice that this scenario attracts stronger probabilities as the 1W RSI has been on a Bullish Divergence from oversold territory since the December 25 2023 Low. This Divergence is similar to the bottom formed on the January 04 2021 candle.
Observe also how efficiently the Sine Waves have grasped the Tops and Bottoms of this Bearish Megaphone. Right now they show we are on a bottom formation.
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USD CHFMy analysis on USD CHF, I use limit orders so I don't need to be in front of the chart all day.
To consider this a good entry there are certain criteria to follow:
1. Clean BoS with IMB.
2. * Look for areas where liquidity has been purged.
3. * Stochastic: in uptrend 0-15, in downtrend 85-100.
( * ) = Not optional but increases our probability.
I use Fibonacci to get these extreme points and my preferred one is 75% retracement, with a risk-reward of 1:3.
Set and forget.
Trade carefully,
This is not financial advice, DYOR.
Felt weakness in GbpChf..lets see..ello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Watching for this sideway on h4 to breakout...lets see...
Do check out my stream video for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
-- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! --
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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