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Gold Price Consolidates Near $2,620The gold price (XAU/USD) is in a consolidation phase around $2,620.00, showing a recovery session from previous declines, although trading volumes remain light due to the upcoming New Year holiday. On the support side, key levels are found at the exponential moving averages ($2,625 and $2,630), with a risk of further bearish pressure if these levels are breached, potentially driving the price toward the monthly low of $2,580. Uncertainties tied to the economic policies of the incoming Trump administration and the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on rate cuts for 2025 represent a mix of potential bullish and bearish catalysts. The precious metal could benefit from safe-haven demand in the context of escalating geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and ongoing unrest in the Middle East, which continue to fuel risk aversion sentiment. Gold closed 2024 with a 27% gain, driven by central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and accommodative monetary policies. However, the strengthening dollar and higher U.S. Treasury yields have capped further advances. The Dollar Index (DXY) remains near its highs, but the decline in 2- and 10-year Treasury yields could support the metal despite the outlook for more limited rate cuts in the coming year.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
session-specific trade setups for Tokyo, London, and NYC session-specific trade setups for Tokyo, London, and NYC sessions using a combination of VWAP deviations, Ichimoku signals, FVG entries, RVOL spikes, and Fibonacci/VWAP zones. 1. Tokyo Session: Scalping Opportunities Focus: Narrow-range scalping aligned with VWAP deviations and Ichimoku signals. Trade Setup: Entry Zone: Long: Near VWAP Lower Band ($2618-$2619) with untested FVG support. Short: Near VWAP Upper Band ($2623-$2624) with confirmed resistance. Validation: Look for Ichimoku Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen support at lower entries. Confirm with tight-range FVG overlap and delta absorption. Targets and Stops: Take Profit (TP): Scalping TP at VWAP Midline ($2622). Stop Loss (SL): Place SL below Ichimoku Kumo base for longs (e.g., $2616) or above resistance for shorts (e.g., $2626). 2. London Session: Breakout Opportunities Focus: High-volume breakout setups validated by RVOL spikes and Ichimoku TK crosses. Trade Setup: Entry Zone: Breakout Long: Above $2625 (VWAP Upper Band and Ichimoku Kumo top). Breakout Short: Below $2618 (VWAP Lower Band and FVG support break). Validation: RVOL Spike: Ensure breakout aligns with increased RVOL to confirm institutional activity. Ichimoku TK Cross: Confirm bullish (for longs) or bearish (for shorts) TK cross above/below the Kumo. Targets and Stops: Long Target: $2627-$2630 (Kumo extension and Fibonacci 161.8%). Short Target: $2615-$2612 (untested FVG and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement). Stop Loss: Place SL within 1 ATR above/below entry level (e.g., $2.50 from entry). 3. NYC Session: Volatility and Economic Event Setups Focus: Mean reversion setups aligned with economic events and VWAP/Fibonacci confluence. Trade Setup: Entry Zone: Mean Reversion Long: Near $2618 (VWAP Lower Band and Fibonacci 50% retracement). Mean Reversion Short: Near $2625-$2627 (VWAP Upper Band and Ichimoku resistance). Validation: Economic Event Overextension: Confirm sharp pre-event moves with overextension beyond VWAP deviations. Reversion Signal: Look for price reentry into Ichimoku Kumo or VWAP mean. Targets and Stops: Long Target: $2625 (VWAP Upper Band). Short Target: $2618 (VWAP Lower Band). Stop Loss: Place SL at $2616 for longs or $2628 for shorts. Summary of Session-Specific Trade Setups Session Strategy Entry Zone Validation TP SL Tokyo Scalping Long: $2618-$2619 VWAP Lower Band, Ichimoku Kumo support, narrow FVG alignment $2622 (VWAP Mid) $2616 Short: $2623-$2624 VWAP Upper Band, Ichimoku resistance $2622 $2626 London Breakout Opportunities Long: Above $2625 RVOL spikes, bullish TK cross above Kumo $2627-$2630 $2623 (ATR) Short: Below $2618 RVOL spikes, bearish TK cross below Kumo $2615-$2612 $2620 (ATR) NYC Mean Reversion Long: $2618 Economic event overextension, VWAP/Fibonacci confluence $2625 $2616 Short: $2625-$2627 Economic event overextension, Ichimoku resistance $2618 $2628
FX:XAUUSD
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
Bitcoin Head and Shoulders confirmed Bitcoin Head and Shoulders confirmed, with a slight adjustment, that it targets approximately 81k, including my prediction of potential developments. $88,770 will act as support since that was the RSI high using the 14 period and will receive a positive reaction, bouncing off the head and shoulders trend-line, then failing, and ultimately reaching the target of 81k. I believe we will test the November 5th election candle, which serves as a macro swing at the 68k range.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by RSI_Trading_Concepts
Advanced Multi-Timeframe Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis for XAU/USDThis analysis uses Ichimoku Kinko Hyo across daily, 4-hour, 1-hour, and 30-minute timeframes to assess trend direction, strength, reversals, and confluence with other tools such as Fibonacci levels, VWAP, and Moving Averages (MAs). Below are the results of the analysis. 1. Daily Chart: Long-Term Overview Observations: Kumo (Cloud): The Kumo is neutral with mild upward Senkou Span A slope, indicating consolidation but with bullish undertones. Price is hovering near the upper edge of the cloud ($2624-$2627), suggesting a potential breakout if momentum sustains. Kumo Thickness: Thin cloud ahead, implying reduced resistance for price to break higher but also vulnerability to reversals. Tenkan-sen (TK) and Kijun-sen (KS): TK is above KS with a weak bullish cross near the cloud edge. This setup indicates that bullish momentum is weak but present. Both lines are relatively flat, reflecting indecision and a lack of directional strength. Chikou Span: Positioned slightly above the price and aligned with past candles, signaling indecision and consolidation. Kinho Sushi Timing Cycles (9, 17, 26): The 26-period alignment suggests that the current setup is approaching a potential decision point. Expect possible momentum shifts or breakouts within the next 1–2 days. Confluence: VWAP aligns with Senkou Span A ($2624) and Fibonacci 50% retracement ($2618-$2622), forming a significant support zone. SMA-50 also supports this region, strengthening bullish arguments. 2. 4-Hour Chart: Medium-Term Momentum Observations: Kumo (Cloud): The Kumo is bullish, with Senkou Span A sloping upwards, while Senkou Span B remains flat. Kumo Thickness: Moderately thick, indicating strong support below $2620 and resistance above $2627. Tenkan-sen (TK) and Kijun-sen (KS): A bullish TK/KS cross occurred above the cloud, signaling strength. However, price has retraced toward the Kijun-sen, weakening momentum. Kijun-sen ($2621) acts as dynamic support, aligning with VWAP and Fibonacci levels. Chikou Span: Pointing upward, confirming mild bullish bias. However, it is approaching the price, signaling a potential slowdown in momentum. Kinho Sushi Timing Cycles (9, 17, 26): A 9-period timing cycle coincides with the price nearing Kijun-sen support ($2621-$2622), suggesting a potential short-term reversal. Confluence: VWAP Lower Band ($2618-$2620) and Fibonacci 50% retracement align with Kijun-sen, forming a high-probability support zone. 3. 1-Hour Chart: Intraday Trend Observations: Kumo (Cloud): The cloud is thin and flat, indicating low resistance and the potential for price to swing in either direction. Price is testing the upper Kumo boundary ($2623), signaling a potential breakout attempt. Tenkan-sen (TK) and Kijun-sen (KS): A bearish TK/KS cross below the cloud occurred recently, but the price has since retraced above the TK line ($2624), showing weak follow-through on the bearish signal. Chikou Span: Flat and positioned at the price, confirming intraday consolidation. Kinho Sushi Timing Cycles (9, 17, 26): A 17-period cycle is nearing completion, suggesting an imminent price decision. Confluence: SMA-15 and VWAP Upper Band ($2625) provide immediate resistance, while VWAP Lower Band and Kijun-sen ($2618-$2620) offer support. 4. 30-Minute Chart: Scalping Opportunities Observations: Kumo (Cloud): The Kumo is bearish with Senkou Span A sloping downward. Price is trading just below the cloud, confirming bearish momentum on this timeframe. Kumo Thickness: Thin cloud ahead, indicating weak resistance and increased volatility potential. Tenkan-sen (TK) and Kijun-sen (KS): Price recently broke below the Kijun-sen ($2623), signaling short-term bearish momentum. The gap between TK and KS is widening, confirming a bearish trend. Chikou Span: Steep downward slope below price, confirming bearish intraday momentum. Kinho Sushi Timing Cycles (9, 17, 26): A 9-period cycle aligns with price testing the Kijun-sen, suggesting a potential pullback or continuation depending on momentum strength. Confluence: VWAP and Fibonacci retracements align near $2618-$2620, offering a potential reentry zone for scalpers. Summary of Ichimoku Analysis: Trend Strength: Daily Chart: Consolidation with a mild bullish bias. Price must clear $2627 for strong momentum. 4-Hour Chart: Bullish but losing strength near resistance at $2627. 1-Hour Chart: Neutral, with price attempting to break above the cloud. 30-Minute Chart: Bearish with thin clouds signaling potential high volatility. Confluence: Strong support lies near $2618-$2620 across all timeframes (VWAP Lower Band, Kijun-sen, Fibonacci 50% retracement). Resistance lies near $2625-$2627 (SMA-15, VWAP Upper Band, and Senkou Span A). Actionable Signals: Buy Entry: Near $2618-$2620 with confirmation of bullish TK/KS cross or Kumo bounce on lower timeframes. Sell Entry: Below $2618 on 30-minute/1-hour chart breakdowns. Breakout Long: Above $2627, targeting $2635 (next major resistance). Conclusion: This Ichimoku analysis highlights consolidation with potential bullish breakouts. However, intraday charts show weakening momentum, and scalpers should focus on VWAP Lower Band ($2618-$2620) for precision entries.
FX:XAUUSD
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
24.12.30 GOLD WEEKLY OUTLOOKHello traders, This week is the New Year's week, defined as "the last quiet week," as the Non-Farm Payroll data release has been moved to the second Friday of January, so there won't be any significant data releases affecting the market this week. It's worth noting that after Yellen's speech, market attention has gradually shifted to the U.S. Treasury's debt ceiling issue. Yellen mentioned: "The Treasury expects to reach the new debt ceiling between January 14 and January 23, at which point the Treasury will need to begin taking extraordinary measures." The TGA (Treasury General Account) is the U.S. Treasury's main operating account at the Federal Reserve, used to manage government revenues and expenditures, including tax revenues, debt issuance proceeds, and federal government payments (such as Social Security and Medicare). TGA account management has significant implications for monetary policy as it directly affects market liquidity levels. Impact of TGA balance changes: Balance increase: Withdraws liquidity from the market Balance decrease: Releases liquidity to the market Yellen's speech implications and potential impacts can be understood as follows: 1. Yellen's speech suggests that liquidity in the first quarter of 2025 will become very "complicated." She is also leaving an "empty TGA account" for the incoming Treasury Secretary Bessette. 2. Current TGA Account Status According to the bill passed by Congress in June 2023, the debt ceiling has been suspended until early 2025. Starting January 2, the U.S. government will not be allowed to take on new debt. Currently, the TGA account balance is approximately $735 billion, close to the policy minimum requirement of $700-800 billion. This means the market realizes there is no "balance" left to flow out of the TGA account. 3. U.S. Government Temporary Spending Bill Recently, both parties in Congress reached a $340 billion temporary spending bill. Yellen indicated that funds from this temporary spending bill will be used to continue government operations. Note that this bill expires on March 24. 4. The U.S. individual tax filing season starts from mid-April to mid-June, when self-employed individuals, freelancers, and those with investment income need to pay taxes. This means TGA account liquidity replenishment won't occur until mid-April at the earliest. Yellen's operation is actually a rather clever "political legacy": - Reaching debt ceiling in mid-January - Temporary spending bill expires March 24 - Tax filing season starts mid-April This timing creates a "liquidity vacuum period" coinciding with the critical early period of the Trump administration. Therefore, 1. On the surface, it appears as normal fiscal operations 2. In reality, it presents a thorny "opening challenge" for Trump's new government. This arrangement can be seen as a form of "institutionalized political contest," using legal fiscal operations to pressure the next administration. Potential Impact of Tight Liquidity on Gold Commodities 1. Increased Safe-Haven Demand - Tight liquidity may trigger market volatility - Political uncertainty increases (new government and debt ceiling issues) - Investors may increase gold allocation demands 2. Dollar Trends - Tight liquidity may lead to rising USD liquidity premium - But if Fed forced to take countermeasures, could weaken dollar - Dollar weakness typically supports gold prices Therefore, the fundamentals for commodity price increases are appearing again in the opening season of 2025. Last Friday's internal reminder: During U.S. trading hours last Friday, gold experienced a pullback. However, during Monday's Asian early session opening, gold reversed and showed an upward trend, currently still operating within resistance zone 1's pressure area. The short-term bullish plan for gold remains unchanged, just requiring patience in waiting for new entry opportunities. Targets remain: TP1: 2672 fibo 618 retracement level TP2: 2696 fibo 786 retracement level TP3: 2710 fibo 886 retracement level GOOD LUCK! LESS IS MORE!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FUNTRADER-Vera
BUY NOWThis chart depicts an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, a bullish reversal signal, alongside a rising channel. Here’s a breakdown of the potential strategy based on the chart: Key Observations: 1. Inverse Head and Shoulders: Left Shoulder: Initial peak followed by a decline. Head: Deeper low at "TOP 2." Right Shoulder: Higher low compared to the head, signaling potential reversal. 2. Rising Channel: Price is currently trending upward within a parallel channel. 3. Entry Zone: Around $2,620.27 (highlighted area near the breakout of the neckline). 4. Targets: First target: $2,658.13 (as marked). Second target: Potential continuation above the rising channel if momentum holds. 5. Stop Loss: Below $2,600.30 to mitigate downside risk in case of pattern failure. Trading Idea: Buy Entry: On a successful breakout above the neckline ($2,620.27) or upon retesting the lower end of the channel. Take Profit: Scale out near $2,658.13 or higher. Risk Management: Use a tight stop loss below the rising channel or neckline. Would you like further refinements or detailed analysis on this?
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by SOPHIA_06