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$BTC: are we at the peak of this bull run?The chart says yes, and here’s the breakdown of my analysis: - **MACD on Weekly**: Overheated. The last time this happened was in June, and it led to a six-month consolidation with a -30% dump. - **RSI**: Overbought. Same story—this signals consolidation, but since we’re on the weekly timeframe, it’s going to drag on for a while. - **Daily Indicators**: Also overheated! This is double trouble. It means we’re likely to see a significant dump until the daily indicators reset at the bottom. Now, here’s the kicker: **everything in this cycle is messed up by the ETF FOMO.** - We’ve already passed the previous ATH *before* the halving—something that’s never happened before. This suggests a short-lived bull market is highly probable. - **Alt season? Canceled.** Bitcoin is hogging all the attention, news, and institutional money. Altcoins are sitting in the corner, forgotten like last year’s Christmas sweater. To be clear, I’m not saying we’re headed into a four-year bear market. But the traditional halving cycle? It’s over. - The halving doesn’t have the same impact anymore because miners no longer contribute significant sell pressure. - Instead, we’re looking at **six-month cycles**: alternating between FOMO rallies and consolidations, driven by weekly timeframes and the MACD. If this idea holds true, we’ll see a reset of all indicators by June, followed by a six-month rally for BTC. Altcoins might tag along, but don’t expect a classic alt season. The ETFs aren’t here to rotate money—they’re here to park it in BTC and ETH. And the altcoins? They’ll starve. Buckle up; it’s going to be an ETF-dominated ride! 🚀
Short
by CryptoNikkoid
3
Technical Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) - 4 Hour Chart### Technical Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) - 4 Hour Chart Current Trend Overview: Bitcoin has been exhibiting a rising wedge pattern on the 4-hour chart, indicating a potential reversal in the prevailing bullish trend. A rising wedge often suggests exhaustion in the buying pressure, leading to a breakout to the downside. Pattern Analysis: - Rising Wedge Formation: The rising wedge is characterized by converging trendlines that slope upward. The upper trendline connects higher highs, while the lower trendline connects higher lows. This formation typically forecasts a bearish reversal once a breakout occurs beneath the lower trendline. - Breakout Confirmation: A recent breakdown below the lower trendline of the rising wedge confirms the bearish sentiment. Traders often look for increased volume on the breakout for confirmation, suggesting strong selling interest. Price Targets: With the breakout indicating a shift to bearish momentum, several potential target areas can be set based on prior support levels and Fibonacci retracement zones. Here are the target areas: 1. Target 1: 99,000 - This level acts as a psychological support, as it aligns with previous highs and may attract buyers attempting to step in. 2. Target 2: 97,500 - Slightly below Target 1, this level has been a notable area of price action in the past and may provide a bounce point. 3. Target 3: 95,000 - This area has potential as a strong support level, influenced by previous price consolidations and fib levels. 4. Target 4: 93,500 - As selling pressure continues, this target corresponds to previous swing lows, which can be pivotal for the price trend. 5. Target 5: 91,000 - If price action continues to decline, this further downside target can set the stage for deeper corrections. Additional Indicators: - Volume Analysis: Observing trading volume is crucial in confirming the breakout's validity. If there is substantial volume accompanying the downward movement, it reinforces the bearish outlook. - RSI and MACD: Monitoring overbought/oversold levels through indicators like RSI may provide insights into possible reversal points or confirmation of continuation in the downtrend. A bearish crossover in MACD could also signal downward momentum. Conclusion: Given the current technical setup with the rising wedge pattern and confirmed breakout, Bitcoin appears poised for a bearish phase in the immediate future. Traders should remain vigilant and consider risk management strategies, keeping an eye on the outlined target areas for potential buy opportunities or sell-stop adjustments. Always ensure to reassess the market sentiment and broader trends, as cryptocurrency markets can exhibit high volatility and rapid shifts in sentiment. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments!
Short
by SRFXGlobal
Forecasting gold priceForecasting gold prices is a complex task, as it's influenced by a multitude of factors. Here's a breakdown of the key elements and some current forecasts: Factors Influencing Gold Prices: US Dollar: Gold is often priced in US dollars, so its value tends to move inversely to the dollar's strength. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, potentially dampening demand. Interest Rates: Rising interest rates can make holding gold less attractive, as it doesn't offer a yield like bonds or other interest-bearing assets. Inflation: Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation. When inflation rises, investors may turn to gold to preserve their purchasing power. Geopolitical Uncertainty: Economic or political instability, such as wars or financial crises, can increase demand for gold as a safe haven asset. Supply and Demand: Physical demand for gold, including jewelry, industrial uses, and central bank purchases, also plays a role in price fluctuations. Current Forecasts: Trading Economics: Their global macro models and analysts expect gold to trade at $2,682.04 USD/t oz. by the end of the current quarter and $2,783.76 in 12 months. FXEmpire: They highlight that the US dollar's strength and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy are key factors currently limiting gold's upward momentum. They are closely watching the US PCE Price Index for inflation insights, which could significantly impact gold prices. Other Analysts: Some analysts suggest that geopolitical tensions and concerns over a potential US government shutdown could boost gold's safe-haven appeal. However, strong economic data could reinforce the Fed's policy stance and limit gold's upside. Important Considerations: Forecasts are not guarantees: These are just predictions based on current information and models. Unexpected events can significantly impact gold prices. Multiple factors at play: It's crucial to consider the interplay of various factors, rather than focusing on any single element. Stay updated: Keep an eye on economic data releases, central bank announcements, and geopolitical developments to stay informed about potential influences on gold prices. In conclusion, the outlook for gold is mixed, with both upward and downward pressures at play. The US dollar's strength and the Fed's monetary policy are key factors to watch, along with inflation data and geopolitical events. It's essential to stay informed and consider multiple perspectives when making any investment decisions related to gold.
TVC:GOLD
by ITManager_US
QQQ - Correction Underway After Recent HighsThe QQQ is currently undergoing a corrective move after reaching a recent high of around 540 USD. The price has retraced sharply from this level, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment as sellers begin to dominate. Key Levels Support Zones: Immediate support can be seen around 519 USD, with more significant zones near 500 and 480 USD, which aligns with previous price consolidation. Market Structure After a strong upward move, the price has entered a consolidation phase, with lower highs indicating the start of a pullback. Sellers have gained control, as evidenced by the recent price action. Volume The CVD is deeply negative, highlighting strong selling pressure in the current market phase. This suggests that while price holds near key support, bearish momentum remains high, and we may see further downside if these levels don't hold. Outlook Watch for price action around the current support. If this level breaks convincingly (what has to be expected, regarding the highly negative momentum), we could see a deeper retracement toward 500 USD. On the other hand, a strong bounce from current levels, might signal a resumption of the bullish trend. The two different pathways show the most likely outlooks: The green path shows the best bullish case, while the blue path seems to have a higher likelihood, but therefore offers a better RRR for future long positions.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by Ochlokrat
1
A well-thought-out analysis of WIF.Out of the ruins Out from the wreckage Can't make the same mistake this time We are the children The last generation (the last generation, generation) We are the ones the globalists left behind And, I wonder when we are ever gonna change, change Living under the fear, 'til nothing else remains We don't need another universal income (XLM) We don't need to know the way home All we want is WIF beyond Thunderdome Looking for something, we can rely on There's gotta be something better out there Ooh, love and compassion Their day is coming (coming) All else are castles built in the air And, I wonder when we are ever gonna change, change Living under the fear, 'til nothing else remains All the children say We don't need another world currency (XRP) We don't need to know the way home All we want is WIF beyond Thunderdome So, what do we do with our lives We leave only a mark Will our story shine like a light or end in the dark? Give it all or nothing We don't need another globalist stooge (biden, harris) We don't need to know the way home All we want is WIF beyond Thunderdome All the children say We don't need another war (we don't need another bush, clinton, bush again with cheney, obama/hillary, liz cheney and bush's grandaughter supporting globalist stooge harris) We don't need to know the way home, ooh All we want is WIF beyond Thunderdome _Tina Turner I hope the developers of WIF get a kick out of this. A lot going on WIF this one, I'm intrigued to beat the band. Hopefully, that was that! We don't need another WIF chart, this is it! ;)
Long
by Nobueno
Xauusd for a selling opportunity from the H1According to the lower timeframe, I'm personally looking for a selling opportunity from the H1 resistance area because it's a major zone for sellers. Now the price consolidating between the parallel channel, but we can expect, it will break the resistance and move towards the major resistance area. But if the price successfully breaks our channel downside, then we will start placing our stop orders. Target:- 2588.00 / 2558.53 Let's see how the price will move. CAPITALCOM:GOLD
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by TRADE_CENTER_1
XAU/USD - Sell Limit Opportunity After Liquidity GrabGold (XAU/USD) has reached a key liquidity zone above resistance, setting up a potential sell limit opportunity. This move reflects a classic liquidity grab, where smart money clears stop-losses before reversing the market. Key Observations: Liquidity Sweep: Price action spiked above a significant resistance level, triggering stop-losses and trapping buyers, suggesting a potential reversal. Market Structure: Bearish signals, including rejection candles and waning momentum, indicate a possible downside move. Optimal Entry: A sell limit at aligns with the liquidity grab and anticipated reversal zone. Trade Plan: Entry: Sell limit at , positioned for a move downward from the liquidity zone. Stop Loss: Above the liquidity sweep to account for market volatility. Take Profit: Targeting key support levels around for a favorable risk-reward ratio. Risk Management: This setup leverages the liquidity sweep for a high-probability trade, but disciplined risk management is crucial. Monitor for confirmation of bearish momentum before full execution.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Vusizwe_Capital
Fast profit idea update - determining the exit price for $GFIUSDLadies and gentlemen minutes ago, I alerted you to a potential fast profit opportunity in the goldfinch protocol, I put in an order to buy at $1.3365, which depending on how the price approaches that level I may adjust to $1.36-38, and I may not have time to update you on that, but currently this is where I am. In this short addendum video, I have determined my exit point to be roughly $1.83, and though I don't say it in the video, I have just now identified another potential exit point a little bit lower if necessary at $1.65. As always, ladies and gentlemen, this is not investment advice. Follow me at your own risk. I am a day trader not an investor. I do things very quickly..
COINBASE:GFIUSDLong
by Hollywood260AB
3
2024-12-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold - Bearish. I doubt we can close the week below 2560 but we now have a giant bear gap between 2615 - 2652. No interested in selling this tomorrow but if we close the week below 2600, the bull trend is gone for good. comment : No matter what you think China is doing with Gold, this market is going down. We are 200 points below the ath and the bull trend is most likely over. If we close this week below 2630, it would be the second close below the weekly 20ema since January. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2590 - 2640 bull case : Bulls are in pain. Every rip is sold hard and we have a clear bear channel. Hard to come up with arguments for the bulls right now. Best they can hope for is to stay above 2600 but this market is as weak as it gets since last week. Invalidation is below 2595. bear case: 2566 is their main target and I am not confident they can get it tomorrow. I expect more chop near 2600 over the next 2 weeks but for Q1 I have wet dreams about 2400. If you want to trade this, look for shorts near the 3h or 4h 20ema and longs only if 2600 continues to be bigger support. Invalidation is above 2642. short term: Neutral. I don’t expect this to go into the weekend far from 2600 but for next 2 weeks I have 2 measured move targets below 2570. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-19: No bigger opinion on this for the rest of 2024. Market is in balance until we see a new impulse. Likely close around 2600. current swing trade: None trade of the day: selling near the 4h 20ema or bear trend line.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds