Centered Oscillators
US Dollar Four Day OutlookIt's always important to look the US Dollar when determining the outlook for Bitcoin. Remember, when the US Dollar rises, Bitcoin does the opposite, which is why the price of BTC is experience in the red.
However, looking at the US Dollar Chart, the DXY is oversold on the Relative Strength Index. This is a bullish momentum for Bitcoin, as the US Dollar can experience a pullback for the next four days.
We need to wait confirmation on the MACD on the four hour timeframe.
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.
Advanced Micro: More Fatigue in the AI Space?Semiconductors showed signs of stalling last week, and Advanced Micro Devices might have confirmed a potentially bearish pattern.
Today’s chart highlights the big price swing on March 8, which featured a record high and then a close below the previous session's lows. The resulting candle was both a “shooting star” and a bearish engulfing bar.
AMD proceeded to remain below that candle all of yesterday. That may confirm the potentially bearish patterns.
Next, stochastics are dipping from an overbought condition.
Third, AMD was 66 percent above its 200-day simple moving average last week. (See our “ Distance from MA ” custom script in the lower study.) That was the highest reading since September 2020. Is a pause needed after such a move?
Finally, traders may watch two previous weekly lows for potential support: $172.49 from February 27 and $161.81 from February 21.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
BTC : 5Day MACD Fib WavesBitcoin Bitstamp 5Day moving average convergence/divergence
and fibonacci-based primary and secondary sine wave structures
established from historical MACD positive and negative momentum.
The MACD is displayed using the standard fast and slow lengths of 12 and 26, respectively.
Signal smoothing length is the standard value of 9.
For visual clarity, the signal line is not displayed...
but I have left in the colored fill between the MACD line and signal line,
so you can still see where the signal line would be.
Also included is the colored fill between the MACD and zero line.
The wave structure template used in this idea is roughly relative to a standard fibonacci channel,
using the following levels : 0, 0.214, 0.236, 0.50, 0.764, 0.786, and 1.00.
The primary fib wave template is displayed using solid lines.
The positions of the upper and lower bounds of the wave structure
are established using the March/April 2021 high, and the June/July 2022 low.
The horizontal positioning of the wave structure is established
using the March/April MACD high for the lowest wave value.
The highest value of the 1.00 wave (amplitude), as well as its' wavelength,
is established using the 0.50 midline level interactions...but more on that soon.
Note,
while the build and placement of the fib wave structures mimic a standard fib channel, it is not exact.
Looking closely, you'll notice that the midline isn't exactly in the middle of the 0 and 1.00 wavelines.
The structure compresses towards the bottom, thus it is not vertically symmetrical.
Either way, these fib wave levels surely line up with the MACD rather impressively.
Also of note,
by applying a horizontal fibonacci channel using the lowest values of the 0 and 1.00 wave levels,
and adding 0.35, 0.382, 0.618, and 0.65 to the existing levels,
one can see interesting interactions between the MACD and these horizontal levels.
Returning to the primary wave structure...
we can see some very interesting interactions between the MACD and the waves.
Here we look at the pink/blue wave levels :
And here, we look at the 0.50 green midline :
These midline interactions were used in creating the amplitude and wavelength of the entire wave structure.
By looking at all the interactions, I believe that it is fair to assume
that interactions similar to these could occur in the future
when the MACD reaches the various levels of this fibonacci wave structure.
Ok.
So what if, in the future, the MACD reaches beyond the upper and lower bounds of the fibonacci wave structure?
My first thought was to just extend the current wave structure
by adding more levels above and below the existing structure :
This could indeed be useful.
But, when I looked at the current structure, and then looked at historical MACD values before 2017,
I concluded that this structure doesn't necessarily apply to that data.
If I were to predict future MACD action beyond this structure,
especially a massive logarithmic rise/drop similar to what happened at the end of 2020/beginning of 2021,
I would need to think about this completely different, and find a another method...
one outside of simply adding more levels above and below the existing structure.
What did I find?
Let's return to the midline interactions that we looked at earlier.
We see the MACD hits the green midline and reverses 3 times before breaking through the it,
and then the MACD rises to the white 1.00 fib wave level.
I realize the following might be reaching a bit far,
but, what if this particular MACD behavior pattern occurs again in the future?
If the possibility of this occurring again exists,
is there any existing MACD data that I can use to form an entirely new fib wave structure?
A new structure that when placed properly, allows this behavior pattern to occur once again?
Here is what I found.
I can place a brand new wave on the chart, one with a larger wavelength, and a much larger amplitude.
I can modify its' wavelength, amplitude, and position,
so that it mimics the midline of the existing wave structure, but on a larger scale.
Take a look... here it is, displayed with a dashed line :
Now I ask, is it possible to estimate the other levels of this new structure using this waveline
and any existing MACD data?
Here is what I found :
Is this stretching a bit too far? Maybe.
But, I think that this way of thinking is what is necessary to imagine
what the MACD may look like in the future if there is a massive logarithmic swing in either direction.
And of course, because this new fib wave structure is built using less data than the previous structure,
and involves more estimation, it is likely to be less accurate as well.
So, if all of this possibly plays out, what would the MACD look like if it did reach these types of levels?
Well, using an unpublished pinescript indicator that I wrote,
I can give you an idea of what it would look like...
If you take all of the existing MACD data, offset it horizontally to the right by 500,
and then multiply the values by 4.20, you get this :
Awesome, right?!?!
Interestingly, this projection also fits the initial fib wave extensions
that I used in one of the previous images above. Take a look :
So, in conclusion, this is how I created the main chart of this idea.
I tried to include my logic and reasoning behind it.
Is this useful? I think so.
Naturally it depends on several factors such as whether you agree with the logic and conclusions of this idea,
whether you use the MACD to help you trade, the timeframes of your trades, as well as your trading style.
If anything, I think this chart is definitely worth looking at every now and then,
especially when the MACD gets close to the various levels.
Regarding sine waves, I have found some other waves that can be applied to the MACD that could prove useful.
I refer to them as sub-waves. These are not placed within a unifying fib structure...
they are individual waves, each with different amplitudes and wavelengths.
All sub-waves :
I think that these sub-waves can be useful at levels in between the fib wave levels of the two main structures,
and overall help add to the validity of the notion of using sine waves in conjunction with an MACD while trading.
Finally, here is a bonus 5Day MACD fib grid image...
Thank you for checking out my idea.
I hope it makes you look at sine waves, fibs, and the MACD differently.
Please give it a boost if you liked it, and feel free to comment.
//Durbtrade
Treasury Yields Stall at Potentially Key LevelTreasury yields have had a big impact on stocks since the Federal Reserve started hiking rates in 2022. Now one of the biggest charts in that market might have done something important.
Today we focus on the 10-year Treasury note’s yield, measured by the index TNX.
The first pattern is the 4.324 percent level. It was a peak in June 2008 and again last August. TNX pushed above it in September but then returned below it in late November. Yields rebounded this year and stalled at the same spot last month. Is it marking a top again?
Second, the recent high represents a 50 percent retracement of the drop from late October through late December. That may confirm its downward trend.
Finally, stochastics have been falling since mid-February.
These patterns could be important before news events this week. Jerome Powell testifies on Capitol Hill on Wednesday and Thursday. Nonfarm payrolls are on Friday.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. See our Overview for more.
Important Information
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures or cryptocurrencies); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association (“NFA”), and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services under federal and state money services business/money-transmitter and similar registrations and licenses.
TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
Price overextension: misconceptions and common mistakesPrice overextension remains a widely misunderstood concept in trading, causing both novice and seasoned traders to make errors in their decision-making. This misinterpretation often leads to placing trades in the wrong direction or, equally detrimental, overlooking profitable opportunities.
In essence, price overextension signifies that the market has undergone a rapid and excessive movement in one direction. Such movements are often perceived as unsustainable. Numerous indicators, such as Stochastic, RSI, Bollinger Bands and many other, attempt to identify such "abnormal" price movements so traders could capitalize on them. Despite variations in statistical methods and calculations, their common goal is to detect instances where price went or down too much and is likely to reverse.
In this discussion, I will use Relative-Strength-Index (RSI), a popular indicator, to convey my perspective on price overextension. While some traders argue for customization, the elusive question of "how" often remains unanswered. From my experience, there are no universally perfect settings that consistently yield optimal results.
I’ll draw my examples from the recent SPY bar chart (February 2024).
The first misconception
The first misconception is that if price is overextended it is time to immediately start looking for a trade in the opposite direction. The most important phrase here is “start looking”. Many beginners misinterpret this as an invitation to commence trading, leading to the premature initiation of short positions during perceived market "overextension" and vice versa.
So, the first and foremost important advice is to never try guessing top/bottom based on one indicator or gut feeling. Simple as it seems I remember many times breaking this rule myself because the temptation was too strong. It rarely ended up well.
On the graph, I've highlighted three recent instances where the RSI exceeded 70 (indicating overbought conditions). What stands out is that, following each occurrence, the price surged significantly before consolidation set in, inflicting losses upon short traders.
Even experienced traders, who look for confluence of signals, may fall into this trap. In the first two examples, bearish candlestick patterns failed to prevent subsequent price increases. Most likely, those candles were “created” by weak hands traders, who tried to short market, while it was actually controlled by strong buyers.
These instances could have been avoided by considering the daily graph, revealing a robust bullish context – price was in an uptrend, one-time-framing up on weekly. There were couple of moments when bears gained short term control (Tuesdays 13th and 20th) but they never could take the previous week low; bulls always confirmed their control.
The second advice is to avoid trading against higher level context. While sometimes those trades might work the result is usually mediocre and most of the times you’ll simply lose. If you really wish to trade against context you need to construct a solid dossier of evidence, supporting your trade.
The second misconception
What is the second misconception? It is that when price overextended it is not time to go with the market. In this scenario, traders refrain from initiating long trades after RSI indicates overbought conditions, potentially causing them to miss profitable opportunities. It might not hurt your account but who likes missing good opportunities?
Surprisingly, seizing these trades correctly is not much harder than any other trade. It simply requires prudence and discipline and getting rid-off cognitive biases. For example, in the second example on the graph a trader could win up to 1% if he played off gap-up open after seeing that the new price has found acceptance.
Conclusion
It is possible to build a profitable strategy that relies on “price overextension” concept. However, it demands more than a cursory examination of a single indicator and adherence to textbook candle patterns. Personally, I reached a point where I entirely abandoned the use of RSI and similar tools because, instead of providing clarity, they seemed to cloud my thinking.
Opting for a more effective approach involves keenly observing actual market behavior, which often defies conventional expectations. Study of high-level contexts, understanding key levels, and discerning confluence in price action signals on lower timeframes consistently prove invaluable. This method helps steer clear of common pitfalls and contributes to enhancing overall trading results.
ETH is showing weakness in its long term rallyETH recently has been losing momentum. The rally now showing one of two scenarios:
Consolidation where profit taking is occuring before another rally
Reversal in the trend
We can see this weakness by identifying two aspects in the price action.
Fails to make a higher high
Breaks long term upward trend
Affirm Holds Potential SupportAffirm ended 2023 with a sharp rally. Now, after two months of consolidation, some traders may look for further upside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the $36.12 level, a weekly low from early December. The buy-now-pay-later stock has tested and held that price, which may suggest that buyers are lurking.
Second is the falling trendline that began at of the February 9 high. Notice how AFRM has potentially broken that short-term resistance.
Third, stochastics are trying to rebound from an oversold condition.
Finally, the zone around $39-43 was roughly the peak in August 2022. If prices manage to climb from here, it could represent a more significant instance of longer-term resistance becoming new support.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. See our Overview for more.
Important Information
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures or cryptocurrencies); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association (“NFA”), and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services under federal and state money services business/money-transmitter and similar registrations and licenses.
TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
NVAX- a medical penny stock Buy Weakness LONGNVAX on a 120 minute chart demonstrates a trend down in the past month after a period of
consolidation producing the POC line on the volume profile. The MACD shows some bullish
divergence. The volume profile has high volume nodes at 4.0 and 5.0 separated by a relative
volume void. NVAX fell quickly through that void. It can just as easily rise through it. See the
linked article on NVA from TipRanks. Options volume and pricing analysis is that bets are looking
at5.0 diligently. Fundamentally, NVAX has been range limited by its focus on COVID but it does
have other projects in its pipeline admittedly on various timelines with varying probabilities
of capitalizing on them depending on clinical trials FDA approvals and so on. On the imbedded
relative strength table as compared with SPY and peers in the pharmaceutical, biotechnology,
medical device and healthcare spaces NVAX compares favorably with MRNA its closest peer
but is weak compared with most of the others I have selected especially with LLY, which is
high-flying from its anti-obesity drug breakout. Device companies Stryker and Intuitive Surgical
are quite strong as well. United Healthcare is dominant in the insurance subsector and strong
overall.
One often effective strategy is to buy when an instrument is oversold and undervalued at a
discount. I will buy NVAX here no matter that I have insider connections with one of those
medical device companies and a few not on the list. Sentiment only goes
so far. I found the article compelling and so Novavax long I go. On a trading site left unsaid
my screenname is "Bottom Feeding Grinder". I have an appetite for NVAX found at the bottom
right now. This is a reversal/reversion to the mean long trade. It is not without risk. As a
penny stock with high volumes, low cost of entry and perhaps low floats, volatility is
underscored and exaggerated if a volume inflow gets underway That said, a short squeeze
is within the spectrum of possibilities. Enough said for now.
Beating the S&P500 (SPX) Buy&Hold strategy by 16 timesS&P500 (SPX) strategy using Stochastic RSI Min-Max, normalized Volatility and Trailing Stop signals, beats the Buy&Hold strategy by 16 times
Embarking on the quest to time the market accurately, the 'Holy Grail' of strategies, led me to create a script to approach this goal. Unlike other strategies that I tested, this one not only surpasses the long-term S&P500 Buy&Hold approach but does so by a remarkable 16.38 times!
Initially, I employed an A.I. program based on an LSTM Neural Network using TensorFlow. Despite achieving a 55% next-day prediction accuracy for short/long positions, I sought improvement using a heuristic pine-scripting approach, incorporating stochastic RSI oscillators, moving averages, and volatility signals.
With default parameters, this strategy, freely available as "XPloRR S&P500 Stock Market Crash Detection Strategy v2" delivered a staggering 2,663,001% profit since February 1871. In the same period, the Buy&Hold strategy "only" generated 162,599% profit. Picture this: a $1,000 investment in 1871 would now be worth $26,630,014 by February 2024. Check it out for yourself loading this strategy.
The script operates as a Stochastic RSI Min-Max script, automatically generating buy and sell alerts on the S&P500 SPX. What sets it apart? The strategy detects "corrections," minimizes losses using Trailing Stop and Moving Average parameters, and strategically re-enters the market after detecting bottoms using tuned Stochastic RSI signals and normalized Volatility thresholds.
Tailor its parameters to your preference, use it for strategic exits and entries, or stick to the Buy&Hold strategy and start new buy trades at regular intervals using buy signals only. In the pursuit of minimizing losses, the script has learned the effectiveness of a 9% trailing stop on trades. As you can clearly see on the upper graph (revolving around 100), the average overall green surfaces (profits) of all trades are much bigger than the average red surfaces (losses). This follows Warren Buffets first rule of trading to "Never lose money" and thus minimizing losses.
Update: Advanced S&P500 Stochastic RSI Min-Max Buy/Sell Alert Generator
I have also created an Alerter script based on the same engine as this script, which auto-generates buy and sell alert signals (via e-mail, in-app push-notifications, pop-ups etc.).
The script is currently fine-tuned for the S&P500 SPX tracker, but parameters can be fine-tuned upon request for other trackers or stocks.
If you are interested in this alerter-version script or fine-tuning other trackers, please drop me a message or mail xplorr at live dot com.
How to use this Strategy?
Select the SPX (S&P500) graph and set the value to "Day" values (top) and set "Auto Fit Data To Screen" (bottom-right).
Select in the Indicators the "XPloRR S&P500 Stock Market Crash Detection Strategy v2" script and set "Auto Fit Data To Screen" (bottom-right)
Look in the strategy tester overview to optimize the values "Percent Profitable" and "Net Profit" (using the strategy settings icon, you can increase/decrease the parameters).
How to interpret the graphical information?
In the SPX graph, you will see the Buy(Blue) and Sell(Purple) labels created by the strategy.
The green/red graph below shows the accumulated profit/loss in % of to the initial buy value of the trade (it revolves around 100%, 110 means 10% profit, 95 means 5% loss)
The small purple blocks indicate out-of-trade periods
The green graph below the zero line is the stochastic RSI buy signal. You can set a threshold (green horizontal line). The vertical green lines show minima below that threshold and indicate possible buy signals.
The blue graph above the zero line is the normalized volatility signal. You can set a threshold (blue horizontal line) affecting buy signals.
The red graph above the zero line is the slower stochastic RSI sell signal. You can set a threshold (red horizontal line). The red areas indicate values above that threshold.
However real exits are triggered if close values are crossing below the trailing stop value or optionally when the fast moving average crosses under the slow one. The red areas above the threshold are rather indicative to show that the SPX is expensive and not ideal to enter. Please note that in bullish periods the red line and areas can stay at a permanent high value, so it is not ideal to use as a strict sell signal. However, when it drops below zero and the green vertical lines appear, these are strong buy signals together with a high volatility.
These Parameters can be changed
Buy Stochastic Lookback
Buy Stochastic Smoother
Buy Threshold
Buy Only After Fall
Minimum % Fall
Sell Stochastic Lookback
Sell Stochastic Smoother
Sell Threshold
Sell Only With Profit
Minimum % Profit
Use Sell MA
Fast MA Sell
Slow MA Sell
MA Sell Threshold
Use Buy Volatility
Volatility Smoother
Volatility Threshold
Use Trailing Stop
Use ATR (iso of a fixed percentage for the trailing stop)
ATR Lookback
Trailing Stop Factor(or fixed percentage if "use ATR" is false)
Trailing Stop Smoother
Important : optimizing and using these parameters is no guarantee for future winning trades!
TSI Market Timer V4.0TSI Market Timer Version 4.0
This indicator is probably one of the best, if not the best indicator out there on the market today. A bold claim. I say that because this indicator has been 10 years, at least, in the making.
I started using TradingView in 2015 when it was $5 to use. It was wonderful. And you could make your own indicators. I would copy and reuse many of the indicators I found.
This tinkering with indicators and theories would last until the present day. I find the market is interesting and there are many new things to learn and so you can make nearly endless indicators.
About This Indicator:
The TSI Market Timer Version 4.0. First, a little theory. I have found that, in practice, if you take any price or indicator (like Acc/Dist) or VIX or even ratio charts like (HIGN/LOWN , a new highs new lows ratio) and you apply the True Strength Indicator (TSI)... that you can plot everything on one charting window. I have extensively tested this out over the years.
There is a concept in math and statistics called standardization. One common way this is used in trading is the z-score. You may have heard of the Altman Z-score.
In this indicator, I have combined several useful signals into one indicator. These are plotted on an auto-scaled plot with a zero line.
Here is an explanation of the lines and their colors.
- White lines : These are TSI price lines using two variations in the calculations. One is done using a SMA or simple moving average, the other is done using an exponential moving average. I have even used the weighted moving average. However, I find the SMA/EMA to be the most "error free" version.
If the EMA white line (price) is above the SMA white line, then it is bullish because the most recent price changes are given more weighting with the EMA version. Thus, if EMA white line > SMA white line then it will fill green and if it is less than the SMA version, it will fill with red color.
- Lime Green fill : The lime green color on the EMA/SMA white line combo means a new high was touched. This is very useful if you are a William O'Neal Swing Trader as I am. Dr. Wish speaks of the Green Line Breaks which represent new highs and their importance. See www.wishingwealthblog.com
- Orange/Gold Line : The Orange Line is the TSI calculation of the DXY (or US Dollar Index). This is something that I noticed that no one else talks about.
The US Dollar Index used on the TSI chart is really useful since it moves in direct opposition to the price of many indices.
My theory on this is due to the fact that the US Dollar is the "other side of the trade". Thus, if you buy several billion dollars worth of a stock, the US Dollar Index goes down and when you sell the shares back, the US Dollar Index goes back up.
Thus, it is tied into borrowing, leverage, borrowing costs, interest rates and similar things.
It has a similar relationship to stocks as oil does to airlines. When USOIL is up, AAL or DAL stocks are often down.
The leveraging of stock purchases explains why the stock market and the US Dollar work in contrarian directions.
I don't know why others have not seen this. It is probably due to the fact that the DXY is a big number and the changes are small and thus it has scaling issues with other forms of analysis. In other words, if you try to evaluate it in other ways, it does not scale on the charting and thus, traders/analysts would dismiss it.
Purple Lines : Comparison Indexes
Dark Purple Line: TSI Comparison line. Default is VIX line. The Vix Index with the TSI calculation applied.
Light purple/ lavendar line: This is an index such as the QQQ, which is used as the default.
Both of the purple lines are customizable.
Centerline: Accumulation-Distribution (mini):
Lastly, we have the centerline which is a smaller version of the light blue line; the Accumulation/Distribution Line. In this case, I wanted to show it as a kind of "money flow". This is a mini-version of the AD line. You can adjust the size using the zoom % on the indicator settings tab. The default is zoomed out 10%.
In addition, you can toggle the red/green fills of the stock/DXY lines and the stock/index lines.
Cheers!
SOUN might be overbought and overvalued for a reversalSOUNDHound AI on the 15 minute on Wednesday 60 hours ago, broke out after a trend down to
begin the year. The tailwinds of the technology stock earnings and their tailwinds pushed hard.
SOUN broke out through the entire high volume area and then rose above it. Pretty much the
same from the lower aVWAP bands into the uppers after crossing over the mean line.
On the three indicators, RSI , MACD and the Chop index bearish diveragence is seen. This may
be an early reversal in progress but then again it might just be prudent traders liquidating to
take full or partial profits to close out the week. I am running full on this, I will watch the
price action early next week to determine a continuation vs a reversal. Relative volume
and relative volatility may show long traders closing with targets reached and shorts taking
their positions causing a pivot high of even a " long squeeze". Alerts and their notifications are
set on a 5-minute time frame to allow for some early warning. On the other hand it SOUN
can put out some higher decibels I may decide to look at the 2/16 options chain and chart
for an OTM call in the $2.5 or $3 range.
TSLA 120 minutes Chart Moving Average pullbacks for Short EntryTSLA has been trending down in a channel since it marked the first trading day of this new year.
The chart is set up on a 120-minute time frame with the Williams Alligator indicator of
SMA10 SMA20 and SMA50 ( offsets 10, 5, & 2). In a strong downtrend, the averages are parallel
with SMA50 higher then SMA20 and SMA 10. For a good short entry, the price should pullback (
and up) through the SMA10 but not through the SMA20. An entry is taken when price falls
back through the SMA10. The supertrend may be reversing if any of the lines cross in a
golden fashion or price crosses the SMA20 or SMA50. On the chart, red down arrows mark the
best six entries YTD. There have been no exits despite any shorting pullbacks such as the past
day or so more or less from some news catalyst delivered by a certain fund manager to protect
her glut max and maybe wallets of clients. This strategy is well suited for a low intensity low
effort & minimal screen time type trader of shares or options to strike a balance overall and
profitable one at that with more simplicity and less complexity with noise and indicator
overload tuned out.
SHOP solid growth and strength into earningsOn the 4H chart SHOP has been trending up since last fall when it fell through the high volume
area and then rebounded crossing through it and rebounding. Earnings have been solid beats
for over a year. Volume is persistent and steady while the relative strength rising from a bounce
down to the 50 level to begin this month. This is a solid earnings play but also could be
a long term investment but not until there is another dip or minor correction to set up for
a low risk entry. Last earnings gave SHOP about $10-12 in a quick price pop. I am looking
for something in the range of $6-8 higher as a conservative target
BITFARM a penny cryptominer LONG CONTINUATIONOn the 15 minute chart BITF did 25% this week as Bitcoin climbed over 45,000. It is running hard
with lots of its peers. IF BTCUSD trades up all weekend there will be continuation. The best
options which closed Friday afternoon did 5X overnight, some of the peer's had 5-13X.
The RSI indicator and ZL MACD are supportive. the Stochastic adjusted to a period of 14 x4=56
is getting overbought. All depends on BTCUSD ( and ETHUSD) as stablecoin high market caps
over the weekend. My options are open and rolled into the following Friday.
BETS- another crypto penny stock resting over the weekend at the 0.5 fib retracement of a 100% 1-2 day move while Bitcoin trends
higher in weekend price action. Can the price action reverse out of the pullback and
retracement with bullish continuation? Relative strength has retreated but held at the 50 level.
Consistent with consolidation, the volume fell off for the close of the trading week. I will take
a long trade in this suspecting it will do well as did HUT and other cryptocurrency penny stocks.
I will set a 5% stop loss and target 25% or the middle of the zone of the topping wicks
on the pivot high of the previous trading day. So, this is a R:r of 5 trade plan. Safe and
conservative especially since I will only use 0.01% of buying power for the trade.