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GBP/USD - Monthly Analysis - Sep Q3I'm back from vacation which means I'm back on the charts. Today I'll be sharing my monthly chart on the GBPUSD along with focusing on the interest rate differential and the 30 year US treasury bond supporting my directional market profile. Clearly, GBPUSD is bearish and now trading below the previous 2020 low. Currently I can see price having the tendency to trade into the regions of <1.124, a monthly bullish order block before potentially turning bullish for the next seasonal period. This is an important week, as we have interest rate decisions for both the FED (USD) and BoE (GBP). The current consensus is a 75bps hike for the Dollar and a 50bps hike for the Sterling, which again increases the interest rate differential between these two economies with the Dollar being stronger which supports my bias of this pair trading lower in the 1985 bullish order block. Regarding the 30 year US treasury bond, without going too much into detail, I can see the treasury note creeping up higher (yields coming down) which generally means we could be seeing a weaker US Index in the horizon. Finally, I just want to make a few points on this 1985 low and why price aggressively started trading higher for the Cable. Ronald Reagan was in office in the 80's who had undertook major tax cuts boosting the American economy where in turn the FED decided to raise interest rates which prompts foreign investors to put their money into the US, thus sending the value of the Dollar higher against other foreign currencies. The strength of the dollar meant overseas buyers got less bang for their buck when trying to import goods from the US. American manufacturers were therefore hard-hit by the exchange rate, which was harming its ability to export. There were also concerns over protectionism, as other countries slapped tariffs on their own exports to take advantage of the dollar's value. Eventually the US got together with France, West Germany, Japan and the UK and signed the Plaza Accord, which agreed to depreciate the value of the dollar. Central bankers sold more dollars in exchange for other currencies, bringing its value down 40% in just two years, which is the sharp increase in the price of GBPUSD that you see on the charts in 1985. I hope this post has been useful. Aman | SMC Wolf FX
Long
by SMCWolfFX
GBPUSD: Cable woes continue?!GBPUSD Intraday - We look to Sell at 1.1820 (stop at 1.1900) Buying pressure from 1.1621 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. Bullish divergence can be seen on the 4 hour chart (the chart makes a lower low while the oscillator makes a higher low), often a signal of exhausted bearish momentum, or at least a correction higher. A higher correction is expected. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. The trend of lower highs is located at 1.1901. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Our profit targets will be 1.1600 and 1.1500 Resistance: 1.1840 / 1.2015 / 1.2155 Support: 1.1500 / 1.1330 / 1.1000 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Short
by VantageMarkets
1
£ $GBP - Slippery slope!£ $GBP - Slippery slope! Now to be aware fundamentally GBP is at a very weak position just like EUR. UK recession and plenty of more other various factors that are listed in previous post based on GBP. However, we could decline further leading us towards low of 2020 areas and perhaps Brexit areas IF we go below 1.17 handle. Just to be aware we do have new Prime Minister coming in early sept and even if its Rishi we could get GBP yields head a little higher but overall we are fundamentally in a difficult situation even cap on energy isn't enough, globally housing is struggling we are at a time where cash is king for now. Tread carefully, TJ
by Trade_Journal