BTC BREAK OUT DONE! READY FOR $100K!!Hey everyone! If you find this content valuable, please consider giving it a thumbs up and following for more analysis.
Welcome to this BTC update!
BTC looks good here. BTC recently broke out of a bull flag pattern on the daily timeframe and has held above it so far. This could be a sign of continued bullish momentum. After this successful retest, expecting another leg up.
Target:- $130k
Invalidation: A daily close below SWB:69K will invalidate this bull flag.
What do you think about this setup? Share your views in the comment section.
Bullrun
20/05/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $67701.33
Last weeks low: $64227.62
Midpoint: $60753.92
We have lift off... maybe? Bitcoin has spent the last 2 months chopping between the low $70K's and high $50K's after a strong rally. However, it looks like strength has returned at least for now in BTC after the CPI print of Wednesday last week. This volatility influx moved BTC back above the 4H 200EMA which has been the all important level in determining the Mid - Low time frame trend. Now that price is back above I think the general sentiment would be to be more risk on, especially in terms of leverage than we've seen in the last few weeks. Not necessarily saying this is an ideal entry, just I think more confidence is returning to Bitcoin.
The altcoin market on the other hand with exception to a few top performers is lagging behind BTC, and that can be seen by the Bitcoin dominance at 56% currently and targeting local highs. For altcoins to begin reclaiming some of their loses we'd need BTC to get back above the '21 high of $69K.
Also, we have the ETH ETF approval deadline for VanEck and ArkInvest/ 21Shares on the 23rd &24th May respectively. Coinbase believes the odds of approval are closer to 30-40% so it would be a shock if these ETF's were approved by the SEC, however, if they were to be approved this could help kickstart the altcoin market again.
For this week it's about seeing if BTC can capitalise on last weeks progress and target the '21 ATH. The purple trendline needs to be respected on the way up otherwise I think we'll retest the MIDPOINT or even the 0.25 area.
Spotting the REAL Bitcoin ATHLet's talk about an ambiguously overlooked elephant in the crypto room, THE MINERS .
Bitcoin miners hold the most influence over the crypto market, despite the humble spotlight casted on them compared to other players like the exchanges and the ETF distributors.
What people really miss is the fact that miners HAVE to make the most raw profit , there is no ATH, no bull-run, no real surge unless Bitcoin miners make more profit than us!
So let's get right into how Bitcoin miners and the costs involved in the mining process could and has affected the price of Bitcoin during previous cycles.
Based on my research, Bitcoin surprisingly NEVER has dipped below the average mining cost during a bull-run.
During mid April 2021 , Bitcoin printed a new ~65000 ATH before starting a correction period that terrified investors. And if you were there back then, you'd remember how this correction was brutal to new traders.
However, after two weeks of shaking the hands, Bitcoin started forming a descending channel week after week, until the price touched the golden FIBONACCI level (61.8%) at ~28600 , which happened to be only ~2000 Dollars away from the average mining cost at that time, which was ~26500.
Briefly after, Bitcoin broke out of the descending channel and started surging towards its REAL ATH, ~69000 .
Now, you might ask what does that have to do with the current cycle?
Well, you're absolutely right!
This cycle is completely different , because the average cost of mining Bitcoin is at RIDICULOUSLY crazy ~57000 level !
And such extremely high production cost begs for a serious consideration of the validity of ~73000 as a REAL cycle ATH.
Do we really think that the current ATH is making miners enough profit?
I personally don't think so, especially after the price retested the ~57000 level (which happens to be the current average production cost of Bitcoin) days ago and rebounded from it.
It only makes sense to expect Bitcoin to print at least 70% profit for miners who produce Bitcoin at this point in time, especially after the halving event.
And predicting a deeper correction where miners would print LOSSES instead of profit during the BULL MARKET wouldn't be a sensible preposition.
It's extremely important to also mention that during the last cycle, Bitcoin NEVER dropped below its average production cost level until the bear market started .
In fact, dropping below that level might have been one of the most significant causes of the bear market to begin with.
Conclusion:
The bull market is exactly when Bitcoin NEEDS to make miners profit, it's why mining is functional, especially for small mining businesses that can't afford to keep their gear running without cyclic profit.
Bitcoin is currently rebounding from a price matching its current average mining cost after its post-halving correction. And based on the info in this brief research, this level should be where Bitcoin starts surging towards a new ATH.
During previous cycles, miners printed at least 100% profit after the halving events.
Will history repeat itself?
Will the ~57000 price level be the final rebounding level before making a new ATH of at least 100000?
Let's see!
Note: This was an exploration of a potential scenario based on the current context and state of the market, not financial advice.
13/05/24 Weekly outlookAre you getting bored yet? Another week of chop has elapsed, and in short there is not much else to say on the surface. BTC took out it's previous weeks high and then retraced roughly half of the progress made, filling the FVG left behind by the local move up and creating our range low for this week. As it so often does, the range perfectly shows the levels of which price action moves throughout the week. We had $1.1B worth of options expire on May 10th last week which gave BTC it's volatility on Friday creating the weeks low and creating an FVG. I believe it makers sense for price to work towards filling that FVG and retesting the MIDPOINT resistance. If price rejects then next stop is range low, if price accepts higher then range high is the target, simple as that on LTF.
In terms of the broader market, the ETF battle is still being won by the bearish GBTC Greyscale as their continued outflow of BTC with a outflow of $43M vs the net inflow of the 11 other US BTC spot ETFs totalling $32M . Resulting in a net outflow pf $11M
The altcoin market continues to weaken as BTC continues to chop, risk off on leverage continues until BTC can confidently regain the 4H 200EMA , until then spot and hold .
RNDR Long Set-UpA long here with the sessions vwap being the first TP and aiming for the daily level above (purple line) which was the last level relevant untested level before the recent sell off, seems like the best move.
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Render (RNDR) & NVIDIA AI Conference With the rise of Artificial Intelligence , many projects are looking to capitalise on the massive potential that AI promises.
One of those projects is RENDER , the first decentralized GPU rendering platform launched in 2017, the Render network is built to provide a platform for a wide array of computation tasks - from basic rendering to artificial intelligence - which are facilitated swiftly and efficiently in a blockchain-based peer-to-peer network, free from error or delay, while ensuring secure property rights.
Nvidia is a Tech company that focuses on production of high end graphics cards and is a world leader in Artificial Intelligence computing with a Market cap of 2.25 Trillion Dollars. Nvidia are holding an AI conference 17-21 March, one of those talks is a talk on "production rendering on GPU" on the 20th March. I would predict that Render could get a mention as the RNDR network is integrated into Nvidia Omniverse, the VP of Nvidia Omniverse is also an advisor to RNDR, so could we see any further ties between the two companies? If so I think this would propel an already well performing coin that has recently entered into price discovery.
Fib targets after the breakout are shown o the chart and these are the areas to be interested in. I am not ruling out a retest of the break above the previous ATH however with the momentum that we are seeing I think this retest could come a much later stage.
With RNDR's MCap of $3.6B there is no reason why this project shouldn't break into the top 10 at some point this cycle, currently this would mean a 4.85x to displace SHIB at 10th place double that again if you compare to SHIB ATH MCap. This project is just getting started.
All eyes on the Conference, I could see this potentially being a sell the news event as these things often are, however that would just open up a buying opportunity for DCA or long term holding.
XRP price are SET !!! XRP should hit $18 during May
As XRP has now reached the 700- day trendline.. holders today lawsuit against SEC is very important and here’s why I seek and see XRP will be victory in the court against SEC.
These prices keep them in your charts ! And I fully guarantee these price hit will surely will happen.
Btw if you bought XRP and owned about 1,000 XRP .. you will hit about $3.5 million if you hold. ( HINT HINT )
1- $18.57 ( Announcement of settlement)
2- $257.18 (Bank partnership & Integration )
3- $3,748.34 ( Ripple IPO )
4- $59,873 ( Global CBDC Integration)
DELYSIUM (AGI)One of my favourite altcoins for a number of reasons is DELYSIUM. An AI-powered open world framework project, the first web3 operating system that has seen incredible gains in the last year, up 467% YTD.
The AI narrative is a very strong one, perhaps the most likely to succeed in this Bullrun and so choosing the right projects to back over the next 12-18 months is so important.
Since the start of the year AGI has rapidly climbed to new heights, with a previous ATH of $0.45 Delysium moved into price discovery before losing momentum and falling back under. A big reason for this is not only because the rally ran out of steam but because BTC made a similar move, and once BTC pulls back the rest of the market is usually subject to the same move, however altcoins usually hold value much worse than BTC. The chart shows price has retraced back to the origin point of the last leg of the rally, the Bullish OB+ area and reacted well off this zone. After this strong reaction price meets the trendline resistance and fails to break it after 4 attempts. Another pullback into the Bullish OB+ give AGI another chance to escape the bearish trendline which it does and begins to make new Higher highs and Higher lows, a bullish trend has begun on the LTF. The last thing AGI now needs is to break market structure to confirm a new bullish trend which it does by sweeping the supply zone on the nearest local high. Using the Fibonacci zones we can find the best place for entry between the 0.62 & 0.79 areas of the pullback just after a "change of character" (CHoCH).
With strong fundamentals as well as bullish technical analysis it is clear that AGI is a great project to consider. With a strong probability trade like this and Take Profit (TP) targets as price continues its rally. Obviously as with all Altcoins they are subject to BTC price movements, this trade idea will really be determined by BTC regaining the 4h 200ema. If Bitcoin can do that we'll have more confidence and confluence in the trade idea, if BTC continues it's LTF downtrend then the trade idea could be postponed and look for a better entry. The Stop Loss (SL) will be the invalidation area.
06/04/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $64,741.58
Last weeks low: $56,573.01
Midpoint: $60,657.29
As April comes to a close, BTC post it's first red candle on the monthly for the first time since August of last year, that's exactly 7 months of green candles until now.
From a TA standpoint it comes as no surprise, BTC hit and surpassed the previous ATH, it was clear we would meet resistance at this level as is often the case whenever a coin reaches it's previous ATH. Now that the monthly close back under the 69K level that confirms a Swing Fail Pattern (SFP) which is HTF bearish, the first bearish confirmation we've seen on the HTF for quite some time, the first signs of exhaustion in the rally.
We are now in the "post halving" section of the Bullrun which we know has huge bullish potential, however in the short term Bitcoin is looking more bearish than it has done this year. Altcoins have already taken a huge hit, probably worse off than was expected if BTC pulled back and a lot of alts are in oversold territory . For any strength to return to the altcoin market BTC needs to return to strength and for that to happen all eyes are on the ETF inflows/outflows.
For this week I would be surprised if we saw anything other than further chop. The 4H 200EMA is still resisitance for now, a reclaim and acceptance above that level would be a bullish signal for continuation higher, until then building long term SPOT positions/DCA'ing on alts may be a good idea as prices are down 15-25% from their local highs. Leverage trading would require being very nimble to dip in and out of trading both sides.
BTC - 60k Support Confirmed 👌Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
📦 This week, BTC confirmed the rejecting of the $60,000 support.
📈As long as the $60,000 support holds, I am expecting a continuation towards the next resistance at $70,000.
🏹 Then for the bulls to remain in control, and test the $82,000 and upper bound of the red channel, a break above the $72,000 resistance is needed.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
Bitcoin Step-like bullish curve pattern This bounce off is perfect
Parabolic bullish rise and just closed green.
This is rare and mild to see what just witnessed; it can expanded from the sell point into the 90K range
During that should expect the drop and sideways before going into the 6 Figures price.
Expecting 90K .. a small decent drop into consolidation before we go even high to break that trend.
Also to avoid the cross down so the bulls can keep maintaining
$BTC tops correlates to $DXY bottoms?Dollar strength bottoms historically marked the tops of the Bitcoin bullrun.
If the dollar is used to buy Bitcoin, then if the dollar loses strength, more dollars are needed to buy Bitcoin, right?
Then if, in the future the dollar crashes hard, can Bitcoin make a super bullish rally?
Repeating Candle Formation Indicates Possible Start of Bull Run This unique candle formation on the weekly TF appears to have occurred the previous 2 bull runs and this formation has just occurred again. Previous pattern overlay looks very promising for a run up to $100k based on the overlay of the previous bullrun.
BTC Long term predictions On the weekly timeframe these are my potential price paths leading up to and beyond the all important halving.
Using the volume profile indicator, it's possible to see where the highest volume areas are during the way down from the 69k all time high. These areas are where price will usually reach congestion where large orders are being defend and or added to in order to try and push price back in the original direction.
As shown BTC is currently inside a Bearish Orderblock and waiting for price to react off of it, and how Bitcoin reacts leads me to the 3 paths I have predicted:
Bullish Path - If btc flips this bearish OB and retests it with a confirmation as new support, next stop is 38k where the volume profile shows an area of high volume, and therefor resistance as the last time we were at this level the imbalance on the orderbook sent price lower. As price continues to retake previous bearish OB's and turning them into bullish ones by the time the next halving comes around we should be poised to look forward to retaking the ATH.
Neutral Path - I think the middle and most balanced of the 3 outcomes would make the most sense to me given the economic macro environment with the threat of recession looming over the crypto industry, but also the majority of the downtrend is over from the bear market, Btc dropped 77% from its high and although its possible to drop further it's inline with bear markets in the past.
Bearish Path - The bearish outcome leading up to and beyond is the current OB rejects price and sends it back to the POC (point of control) which would really hurt the market but isn't out of the question given the lack of available disposable income and free credit to invest going into the later months of 2023. Unfortunately this is quite likely in my opinion. However, the halving event that takes place this time next year has always started rally's in price, and last Bullrun began just before a halving event. So in conclusion HTF chop and then rally into the halving and beyond.
Bitcoin :what is next?Btc is still in a range of 50k-70k.
We might see a push to the downside at 55k level maybe a wickfish into 50k zone but i think it will reverse immediately from that dump.
In the other side alts are still suffering , and this will continue until dominance reaches 60-69% it depends on the PA of Btc .
Some alts might bleed a little bit more but overall things are looking spicy in the cryptocurrency market . IF we are lucky enough to witness a bigger dump ,that would be a gift for us .
Lets PaaaaamP it.....
ORDI: buy📊Analysis by AhmadArz:
🔍Entry: 41.51
🛑Stop Loss: 37.84
🎯Take Profit: 45.28 - 50.80
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22/04/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $66857.53
Last weeks low: $63230.46
Midpoint: $59603.38
The 4th Bitcoin Halving is now complete , the block reward has been cut from 6.25BTC to 3.125BTC . The reduction in reward creates a supply shock that changes the the tokenomics drastically. We now have a situation were miners revenue effectively halves overnight , despite this miners would have had ample time to plan for this as the halving is every 4 years consistently and would have been able to plan accordingly.
Last week we saw Bitcoins price drop back to sub 60k after losing the 4H 200EMA support level . After a double bottom price rose back towards the underside of the 4H 200EMA and now retesting as resistance. This week will be key for the direction of BTC in the short term. We know post-halving we see new highs within a year, often very quickly after the event, but the short term price direction is very difficult to predict at this time.
Institutional buyers are here, we have big players like BlackRock and MicroStrategy buying up large amounts of BTC to hold long term, the Hong Kong ETF begins on 30th April and could potentially bring Billions of dollars in additional in-flows. Grayscale has been the lead seller in the last few months as they sell large amounts of their GBTC, currently $16.4B in total . A large reason for the sell off is the high fees on Grayscales ETF compared to the newer low fee options presented by BlackRock, WisdomTree, Valkyrie etf all at 0.25%. Grayscale have now tackled this problem by creating a "Mini-GBTC" with 0.15% fees making it the lowest on the market . It will be interesting to see if this stops the consistent outflows. If it does and yet more demand enters the market in Asia coupled with a stunted supply of new Bitcoins we are looking at a good environment for price growth.
This week I will be keeping a close eye on how BTC reacts around the 4H 200EMA, If we hover at this area with now real emphasis on direction then this is a traders environment where money can be made both ways before resuming the overall HTF uptrend.
Alts took a huge hit last week and have given some good entry opportunities, naturally a strong BTC is needed to see progress in the alt market, with a strong reclaim of the 4H 200EMA alts can return to being risk on with a tight stop loss in my opinion.
$KAVA may skip the 2024 Bull RunBINANCE:KAVAUSDT , 1d
After reaching failing to break it’s 2024 high around the $1.15 area, price created a lower high and broke below the 200SMA forming a lower low. This creates a bearish sentiment for KAVA.
The downward trendline aligns with the stiff resistance created by 200SMA and previous support turned resistance. This is a key level where bears will look for shorting opportunities. Keep an eye on the charts and wait for price reaction to initiate a trade.
The only indicator making a bullish case for KAVA is the bullish MACD crossover but price has to ultimately breakout of the downward trendline and 200SMA and remain above it to bring back the bullish sentiment.
As always, “anything can happen” so let the market unfold and react accordingly. #DYOR
BTC - Boring Month⁉️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
BTC has been hovering within a big range between $60,000 support and $70,000 resistance.
Scenarios:
1️⃣ Bullish
For the bulls to take full control again, a break above the $72,000 mark is needed.
In this case, a movement towards the $80,000 resistance would be expected.
2️⃣ Bearish
In parallel, if the $60,000 support is broken downward, we expect a bearish movement towards the $50,000 demand zone.
Which scenario is more likely to happen first? and why?
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr