29/07/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $69,404.60
Last weeks low: $63,458.72
Midpoint: $66,431.66
As July comes to an end a lot has happened in the last month, from starting the month @ $53,000 to now just above '21 ATH.
Last week we saw a lot of volatility caused by some news events, namely the ETH ETF & Bitcoin Conference. The structure of the price range differs to the previous two weeks were price started low and finished high. In this instance we have a midweek low after ETHEREUM ETF went live and then price ramped back up in anticipation for the BTC conference with Donald Trump making a speech as well as Michael Saylor and RFK jr, all of which were extremely bullish on the crypto space and pledged to improve Americas relationship with the industry and increase holdings of BTC.
Now price is currently positioned above the $69,000 '21 ATH which has been one of the most important S/R levels over the last year, acting as the catalyst for major moves off both upside and down. I would like to see the daily close out above this level with conviction, general sentiment is to get nervous at this level as in the past it has failed to hold. CT is silent even though we're within touching distance of ATH and that purely comes from repetitive failure to hold this line.
This week I'm keeping an eye on the inflows and outflows of both BTC & ETH ETFs, the $69,000 S/R level and strength returning to the altcoin market which has continued to take a back seat in recent weeks/ months. Blackrock have expressed their want to increase exposure to RWAs and so real world assets on the Ethereum chain could be a good place to start.
Bullrun
BITCOIN CONFERENCE 2024In the chart I've highlighted some key areas of interest going into the BITCOIN CONFERENCE in Nashville. With Trump scheduled to speak and his recent track record of being bullish on BTC and crypto in general, my natural instinct is this will be a bullish event for the space.
Trump recently started taking campaign donations in BTC and selected JD Vance as his VP should he be elected. Vance is known to have over $100,000 in BTC so they are both pro crypto and should this be expressed at the conference it is bullish for the space.
Is this a sell the news event? With BTC's recent rally from the lows of ~$63,500 to now ~$68,000 you could argue that the conference is priced in as the 7% gain since midweek would suggest. I do predict volatility that may look like a sell the news event initially but ultimately I cannot see that being the case. For me, if we lose the "MINI RANGE MIDPOINT" with a clean break below then I would start to rethink that stance.
Personally I think we whipsaw between " MINI RANGE MIDPOINT" & "'21 ATH". Historically since the start of the year the '21 ATH is the most important level as all major moves both bullish and bearish are triggered from that level.
New Support Levels and Target Prices
Recently, there have been news of new partnerships and investments in the long-standing project Zilliqa, leading to noticeable new and positive movements in this cryptocurrency. Zilliqa, after losing the 0.015 level and forming a new bottom, has faced support. Given that the market is continuously forming new bottoms, there is a possibility that any bullish analysis on altcoins may become invalid.
▶️ Entry Point: 0.017
⏸ Stop Loss: 0.015
1️⃣ First Target: 0.024
2️⃣ Second Target: 0.030
Considering that the market is continuously forming new bottoms, there is a possibility that any bullish analysis on altcoins may become invalid.
I will consider Solana around 80$Blue Line - All time high ( 260 )
Green Line - Interest zone ( 116, 90, 80 )
As you can see triangle pattern spotted in a daily timeframe, and successfully break the upper resistance channel with wickless Bull candle in a weekly timeframe. It is a huge confirmation to hit All-Time high in near future. If BINANCE:SOLUSDT able to close candle above 260 in either a weekly or monthly timeframe I would consider short trade until 90-116 range. 80-95 range is crucial support zone to hold in a monthly timeframe, which means BINANCE:SOLUSDT must close a candle above 80 in a monthly timeframe. But remember we can reach 50-70 range in a weekly timeframe.
COTI - March 2024COTI Projections Unleashed!
For those who've been with me since the beginning, you know the story of COTI - one of my first charts posted here, and a token I proudly hold significant positions in. We've ridden the COTI wave several times, banking huge profits along the way.
While I continue to be a proud HODLer for this bull run, trading COTI has also proven to be a lucrative venture. We've notched up triple-digit percentage profits multiple times, and here's the latest update – a potential buying opportunity in the projected zone!
The approach remains simple: stay disciplined. Whether you're a holder or a trader, discipline is key.
As always, ensure your stop-loss orders are in place, and let's execute our best money management practices. It's time to ride the COTI wave once again!
NEAR protocol on the WEEKLY NEAR is a project that covers all the bases. A Web3 Layer 1 with the capability for unlimited transactions per second (TPS) that's transparent and accessible to everyone. NEAR protocol has begun venturing into the AI space pushed by Co-Founder Illia Polosukhin who is an AI researcher himself, with an AI marketplace as he believes AI is one of the core verticals for the NEAR ecosystem going into the future.
The near chart is a promising one for the future. Having already experienced the 2022 altseason, we can gauge where NEAR will meet resistance, and sellside pressure areas and of course previous ATH. Using Fibonacci levels combined with range quarters we can split up an otherwise daunting chart into sections of a large range. Since the rally began in the beginning of 2024 price has broken above the 0.75 line and has been retested for support, of which it held and is now key support. With BTC's rally on the recent CPI numbers, the stronger altcoins followed suit and now NEAR is targeting the MIDPOINT of the range at $10.72 (0.5 level). From then on there is a clear FVG resistance before hitting the highs.
I have used the Fib levels as long term Take Profit areas, who knows how long it may take to get there or even if we get there at all. However the fundamentals of the Project are very strong, with a great team and expanding into high interest narratives like AI all add up to a very promising project. The one downside is that circulating supply is not capped and will grow at 5% each year. Therefor the tokenomics are not as favourable to investors as for example Injective INJ which has a capped at 100,000,000 coins and currently has 94% of that circulating and that limits dilution of token value.
I'm very bullish on NEAR in the long run, the current LTF bearish pullback has been punishing for the majority of alts however NEAR has held up very well. The AI narrative backing it as well will surely help it progress and the accessibility of being available on all the major exchanges.
BTC: HASH RIBBON GIVES BUY SIGNAL!!Hey everyone!
If you enjoy this analysis, a thumbs up and follow would be greatly appreciated!
WHAT IS HASH RIBBON?
The Hash Ribbon is a technical analysis tool used in Bitcoin trading. It's based on the idea that Bitcoin's price often bottoms out when miners capitulate, meaning they can no longer profitably mine Bitcoin due to increased difficulty and decreased price.
How Does it Work?
Hash Rate: This measures the total computing power used by miners on the Bitcoin network.
Moving Averages: The Hash Ribbon uses two simple moving averages (SMAs) of the hash rate: a 30-day SMA and a 60-day SMA.
Signal Generation: When the 30-day SMA crosses below the 60-day SMA, it suggests miners are struggling. This is often interpreted as a potential bottom for Bitcoin's price.
Conversely, when the 30-day SMA crosses above the 60-day SMA, it could indicate the end of miner capitulation and a potential start of a bullish trend.
Hash RIbbon is one of the most reliable indicators out there of Bitcoin and it's available free on @TradingView.
Works best whenever it gives a 'BUY' signal. Never disappoint. Check Yourself.
Now it again gives a BUY signal so there is a high chance that we will see a new bullish rally from here.
What are your thoughts on BTC's current price action and on Hash Ribbon? Share your analysis in the comments below!
DOT - A Risky Opportunity for HoldingBINANCE:DOTUSDT (1W CHART) Technical Analysis Update
DOT is currently trading at $5.9 and the price is in a consolidation state. As we expect a bull market in crypto, it's likely that the price will bounce back from this consolidation zone. This is a good opportunity to buy some and hold in the spot market.
Entry level: $ 5.9
Stop Loss Level: $ 4.7
TakeProfit 1: $ 8.811
TakeProfit 2: $ 10.667
TakeProfit 3: $ 16.852
TakeProfit 4: $ 23.526
Max Leverage: 2x / Sport
Position Size: 0.5% of capital
Remember to set your stop loss.
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Cheers
GreenCrypto
ETHEREUM ETF With the Ethereum ETF decision just days away, ETH has made a massive breakout play in an effort to front run a positive ETF outcome, the approval of VanEck and ArkInvest/ 21Shares ETH ETFs on the 23rd & 24th May respectively.
In terms of price action and charting this is how I see it. Now that price has broken out from the downtrend and hit the Bearish OB as shown, I think many were caught of guard and expected any sort of volatility to come on the day of the decisions. Instead it seems many have decided to front run the decision and go long which opens up more challenges. I think ETH had priced in a rejection of the ETF at ~£3K , with how the SEC has viewed ETH and it's stance on insisting it's a security, Coinbase estimated a 30-40% chance of an approval last weekend. Now that price has risen almost as if we already have news of approval I think that should the ETF be denied we could fall straight back down to $3K area with support areas shown as targets on the chart. This would print a Bart Simpson style pattern and many Longs will be devastated.
On the other hand, Bloomberg have said that the chances of approval has gone from 25% to 75% and the chart shows this new level of optimism. If the ETF is approved I could see ETH using this current level as a base to target new local highs and close the gap on BTC dominance.
Bitcoin Bull Run Starts Now! - $500K Target?The Bitcoin bull run has officially started. Here is a fractal showing the last bull run and in my opinion, it lines up very well when coupled with Fibonacci retracement. This is macro timeframe, so these moves could take as long as 2026 to finish coming to fruition. Enjoy.
$BTC is about to do a 12% to 27% correction (high probability)Check the chart. We are still in this descending wedge channel, and to go higher, we need to break through the top resistance.
We may succeed and reach 100k, and the bull run could finish next week. Or we may continue to consolidate. This idea focuses on the second possibility.
- Moon boys are all chanting 81k, 100k again. That is a sign that the market is ripe to wreck them.
- Whales have accumulated a lot of CRYPTOCAP:BTC at the bottom and all the way up from the last correction. They will take profit at some point now that many buyers have stepped in, ready to be wrecked.
- The market sentiment is at 75, which is euphoria. A perfect time to wreck the herd.
About the chart:
- The MACD is overheated on 4h and 1D timeframes. A reset lower is unavoidable.
- The RSI is overheated too after this huge pump from 55k to 70k.
The similar conjunction of both MACD and RSI being extremely overbought has resulted in corrections in the past. The question is not if there will be a correction but when.
Ideally, it should happen when we get rejected by the top resistance at the last cycle ATH or a little higher. There are a lot of shorts to be liquidated at this level, so it might push CRYPTOCAP:BTC higher technically.
The correction can be moderate. In that case, it will be a return to the middle of the channel where there is a support line. That would be the green scenario with a -12% correction.
The worst scenario would be to bounce on the middle of the channel by the support and be rejected a second time at the resistance, forming a double top. This would result in a harsher correction to the bottom of the wedge with a 27% drop.
Remember that all of this is scripted. Whales have enough CRYPTOCAP:BTC and enough liquidity to manipulate the value of CRYPTOCAP:BTC as they wish, especially the big exchanges. So the German selling or Mt. Gox stories are just distractions; the exchanges are doing what they want to make money.
The fact that no one would sell their CRYPTOCAP:BTC at this stage of the market is irrelevant. They will sell to get your money because you will sell in panic. Then they will buy again lower and push the price up like they did before. That is how they are making billions.
DYOR always.
BTCUSDT - Weekly The Bitcoin weekly chart exhibits a pattern of three significant upswings, each nearing a 90% increase, followed by roughly 20% corrections after the first and second legs.
As we approach the halving event, a pullback of at least 20% seems plausible, suggesting a potential target around $58K.
Given this historical pattern and the cyclic nature of Bitcoin's price action, such a retracement would not be out of the ordinary.
IS $DOGE ABOUT TO DO THE UNTHINKABLE?Last bull run CRYPTOCAP:DOGE did a 280x from the start of the 5 wave move to the upside to its ATH of $0.73. This move took about 182 days. At its previous ATH, the MC did a 44x from the 2018 peak of GETTEX:2BN to ~$88bn. Based on this upward sloping trendline, CRYPTOCAP:DOGE is primed to hit $7.5, and if history repeats itself, this should happen by end of this year. This would also bring CRYPTOCAP:DOGE MC to almost $1.1trillion, which is about a 12.5x from previous ATH, which is not even up to 1/3 of what it did last bull run. This looks crazy but it's just what the chart shows.
Can CRV make 10x move?BINANCE:CRVUSDT kept making lower lows but doesn't mean it is not gonna go down more. In my opinion BINANCE:CRVUSDT trading in bullflag pattern which is a sign of reversal and checked bottom line 3 times which we can consider as triple bottom. 0.48-0.52 area is crucial which can decide either go up or make another low, but most importantly BINANCE:CRVUSDT must break upper trend line in order to make 10x move. Also MACD making huge Divergence in 1W TF and great amount of Volume coming in lately. I will be taking profits at those green lines.
Is the bull market over? Ultimate Bitcoin (BTC) analysisHello, Skyrexians!
Last month was bloody for the crypto market. BINANCE:BTCUSDT dumped from $70k to $63k, altcoins have completely dead and broke the belief for the altseason. We suppose that now nobody wants to hear anything about altseason and crypto. Most of traders has -50-60% portfolio loss and even cryptocurrency trading platforms which are using the automated trading bot faced with the huge losses. Will this dump continue or now is the reversal point and the forbidden word "altseason" can be said again in the nearest future? Let's try to understand!
Bitcoin weekly time frame analysis
First of all let's take a look at the 1W BTC time frame using our cryptocurrency trading strategy. This timeframe is good to describe current bull run with the Elliott waves. The first we shall do is to find the highest high on the Awesome oscillator. This top corresponds to the recent top at $73k. Therefore, there is a high probability that now price is printing the wave 4.
We have the minimal requirement to finish this wave is the cross of the zero line by Awesome oscillator. We need to see much more candles for this crossover. It means that wave 4 will be finished at least in September. The good news that target price has been already reached or almost reached, that's why we don't expect the significant drop from here. 0.38-0.5 Fibonacci retracement from wave 3 is enough to finish this correction. It means that max drop is possible to $49k. When the reversal bar will be printed there correction is gonna be over.
After that the major wave 5 is expected which can reach 85-107k depends on if it's gonna be extended or not. We will have more precise target when this wave be in progress. Then the bull run is gonna be finished and the next bear market can potentially be huge, but now it's too early to talk about it.
BTC Bitcoin 2024/2025 Bull Run updated Chart timeline Because of the accumulation and the retesting of the .618 Fibonacci line, we have transitioned to following a similar path up to the 2017 Bull Run, which now pushes out some of the price points about a month or so later. Let's see how things play out..............
Amazon opportunity to buy SUI | +300% Target#SUI/USDT #Analysis
Description
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+ Price has reached the bottom and the support held strong
+ Price is now bouncing back from the support zone and this is a good time to accumulate
+ i'm expecting easy profit target of 300%
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VectorAlgo Trade Details
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Entry Price: 0.8534
Stop Loss: 0.4472
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Target 1: 1.0546
Target 2: 1.5460
Target 3: 2.3261
Target 4: 3.9707
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Timeframe: 1W
Capital Risk: 1-2% of trading amount
Leverage: 5-10x
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Enhance, Trade, Grow
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Feel free to share your thoughts and insights.
Don't forget to like and follow us for more trading ideas and discussions.
Best Regards,
VectorAlgo
15/07/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $61,431.5
Last weeks low: $54,288.74
Midpoint: $57,860.12
Last week BTC had a strong rally from the beginning of the week by printing the low in the first hour, and then closing at the weekly high at the very last hours on Sunday, a +13% climb over the 7 days.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) results came in very positive with a better than forecast result.
CPI (YoY):
FORECAST: 3.1%
ACTUAL: 3.0%
The Producer Price Index (PPI) results came in higher than forecast.
PPI (MoM):
FORECAST: 0.1%
ACTUAL:0.2%
Despite a positive CPI and negative PPI the chart reacted in an opposite direction to how we would expect. Eventually after Friday's PPI results the MIDPOINT of the range got flipped and has been rallying ever since.
Usually a weekend pump is not something to be trusted alone, the lower volume can often paint a false picture and because of this the Monday close is very important. Should Mondays close be above the last weeks high I think this could be a catalyst for flipping the Bearish trend back to Bullish.
Another indicator of a trend change is the 4H 200 EMA which has now been broken and awaits confirmation of acceptance above, again this leads into the Mondays close being key.
Close above $61,500 = BULLISH
Bounce and reclaim of both 1D & 4H 200EMAs, set up nicely for HTF continuation of Bullrun.
Close below $61,500 = BEARISH
A swing fail of last weeks high could also imply a rejection off 4H 200EMA and continuation of the chop/ LTF downtrend.
BITCOIN LINE IN THE SAND BTC has lost the 1D 200 EMA for the first time this year which is a major TA trend Indicator.
On the daily timeframe we can see a clean breakthrough below on the first touch since October of last year, which initially is surprising as this level is seen as key support for keeping a bullmarket going. Now that BTC has fallen under the moving average we've seen attempts at breaking back above for the last 3 days in a row, and with FED chair Powell set to testify today and tomorrow along with CPI &PPI on Thursday and Friday respectively. It's quite a FED heavy week with can bring volatility to the market.
The ETH ETF is rumoured to begin trading next Monday (15th July) which could be the catalyst to get both BTC & ETH back above their 1D 200 EMA's. For now the general worry is that the selling pressure caused by the German Government and Mt. Gox is what is dragging price down. However, yesterday recorded a net inflow of $295m for the Bitcoin spot ETFs, the most in 21 days which suggest there are buyers looking to absorb those Bitcoins that are being offloaded.
I am still a little confused as to why the German Government have decided to market sell through an exchange instead of any OTC transactions, perhaps it's a play to shake out weak hands and make retail panic?
The FA is always complicated but I still believe that the bearish factors are more short term when compared to all the bullish more long term factors. Short term market selling vs long term supply shock caused by the halving, institutional investors and ETFs buying, US election and rate cuts.
CPI & PPI can be volatile news events for the market, I think it could be one of these events that could be a catalyst to reclaim the 1D 200 EMA, we've seen a full reset of the RSI since the rally of earlier this year. Historically these are all good long term entry criteria.
XAU/USD Longs from 2,380 back up (ATH Soon)My gold bias for this week is bullish. After observing a reaction off the 22-hour supply zone, I expect a further drop to complete a retracement to a nearby demand zone, likely the 16-hour or smaller zones below it.
Given my bullish outlook, I will be looking for buy opportunities. Once price reaches my demand level, I will wait for lower time frame confirmation to take it back up, potentially to the old all-time highs (ATH) or even higher.
Confluences for GOLD Buys are as follows:
- Price has broken structure to the upside and left a 16-hour demand zone.
- Price is near the old ATHs, which is a major liquidity point.
- The overall and current trend for gold is very bullish.
- The DXY is looking bearish, supporting the gold buy ideas.
P.S. If the price continues to rise without a retracement, I will wait for further price action to determine if I can sell down to a demand zone.
BITCOIN VS ALTCOINS Since the beginning of 2023 BITCOIN has been on a relentless upward trajectory. As the highest market cap cryptocurrency it often sets the tone for the entire market. When Bitcoin goes up it tends to drag the rest of the market up with it and the same when Bitcoin falls is the general rule of thumb.
This post is to showcase the difference between Bitcoins market cap (TOTAL) Vs the Altcoin market cap which excludes Bitcoin and Ethereum (TOTAL3) . As the market leader Bitcoin is often the first mover and that can be seen in the chart on the left, we have at first glass a mirror image on the TOTAL3 chart on the right but with a few key differences:
- When Bitcoin fell from its ATH in November, price found it's bottom at the previous cycles ATH as seen by the blue horizontal ray. Whereas the altcoin market continued to drop below its previous ATH by another 19.67% . It's an important difference because it shows that altcoins are worse off in a bear market when compared to Bitcoin, and they start from further back once the Bullrun arrives.
- We can see that both charts are very similar, the next biggest difference is clearly the progression made in this Bullrun so far. Bitcoin has already moved past its "right shoulder" of the head and shoulders price pattern, TOTAL3 however is still some ways off that mark, the chart shows altcoins have a 38% gap between current level and the top of that "right shoulder" .
The reason for the gap in the race can be explained the same way each cycle because they're exactly the same patterns each cycle. Bitcoin is the first mover as it is the biggest by market cap, the same cycle of capital injection happens each and every time:
BITCOIN ----> LARGE CAPS ----> MID CAPS ----> SMALL CAPS
Profits get rotated into the next more risky investment over and over until the blow off top and retail are left holding their positions all the way down. This will most likely still be the case this cycle however there is a new player on the field...
BTC ETF's...
This is new and exclusive to this cycle and I believe this will partly change the dynamic of the cycle when compared to years gone by. With over $10 BILLION DOLLARS of net inflows into BTC the institutional buyers are now here in a much bigger way than ever before, how will this disrupt the money flow? It could prevent profits from rotating somewhat into the large caps, but not completely. Naturally the ETF providers will have a large stake in the holding of BITCOIN and are going to be less inclined to sell when the cycle looks to near its end as they are still providing the service to their customers. Having less sellside pressure will help BTC hold its value.
The altcoins may get the negative side of this as less profits in theory will rotate into smaller cap coins and result in a smaller 'Altseason" . This is the cost of institutional adoption. There is always the possibility of altcoin ETF's but that is another discussion. For now I can see altcoins playing catch up later this year and going into 2025.