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BTCUSD: Buy The Supports, Not The Hype.BTCUSD update: Inside bar is established just after the 8500 peak. This points to the beginning of a retrace but how far? The most common mistake is to attempt to short this market because of the perceived bearish potential. It is a mistake because the momentum is clearly bullish. Probability favors shallow retraces and supportive levels. This is a time to be patient and wait for longs, not take high risk shorts. At S.C., we locked in an 11% profit on some inventory that we were accumulating while the "experts" were shouting BTC 3K. We were simply following best practices which say buy weakness and sell strength. We also employ strategies across multiple time frames and don't depend on one like swing trading alone. Like Andrew tells our followers, its about base hits, not the home run mentality. Many more aggressive and impatient traders figure they will make money on the short side. Especially now that this market has so much room to pull back. This perspective may be appropriate for day trade strategies but any larger time frame and you are asking for trouble. Why work against the momentum when all you have to do is wait for price to offer an opportunity that is packed with potential. Like a retrace to a support. The 7500 area is the nearest relevant support (.382 of bullish structure). You are looking at 500 point potential on a short vs. about 1000+ points potential on a long if a reversal appears somewhere between 8K and 7500. Trying to play both sides often leads to confusion, forced trades and unnecessary fees. Not to mention the slippage you must pay when your stop orders don't fill at a fair price. This is typical when caught in a short squeeze. Patience on the other hand costs nothing, requires very little energy and if you are wrong and the market leaves you behind, your account is still intact. Patience pays off when the market eventually presents that infrequent high probability setup. In summary, at S.C. we constantly push for best practices. We are still bullish on this market just like we were 3 months ago. We believe in the merit of these technologies and follow probabilities as revealed by our charts, not nonsensical hype that this space is polluted with. When momentum shifts like it has in BTC, the probabilities of the coming support and resistance levels also change. Instead of fighting the market, we simply wait for it to align with our criteria. You do not have to be an expert to utilize the skill of patience. You do need to have a decision making process in place, no matter how simple or complex. This process is what leads to the criteria that needs to be matched by the market. No match, no trade. That makes patience much easier than trying to compete with the fear of missing out. Our plan is to buy the pull back when price presents an attractive level, formation and setup. At the moment we are anticipating the mid 7500s. Any lower and we will be looking for more accumulation opportunities as well.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
56
BTCUSD: Bullish Confirmation Means Wait For Better Buy.BTCUSD update: Short squeeze straight to the 7381 resistance level. Impressive move and the kind that has not been seen in some time. The move serves as the confirmation that a broader recovery is in progress, but the high is no place to buy. The objective now is to identify where the next buying opportunity is likely to materialize. As I wrote in my previous BTC report, a break above 6850 activates the inverted head and shoulders and that is now in the realm of Captain Obvious. All of the "experts" who were all shouting BTC 3K are now all shouting BTC 10K. Where were they in June? The confirmed inverted head and shoulders signifies a broader bullish movement is now in progress. This means support levels are more likely to hold and resistances break. 7381 is the .382 resistance of the bearish structure relative to 9990 high. This is a key level that needs to be cleared in order to pave the way for a recovery back to 10K. There will be minor resistances along the way, and they will serve as potential targets, not levels to short. As of now, this is a location to lock in profit if you have some. Do not be distracted by the noise emanating from the talking heads or your own urge to buy. Patience pays, not forced trades. At S.C., we are waiting for the next swing trade setup. Based on current structure, the first attractive location is the 6823 support (.382 of the recent bullish structure relative to the 5750 low). In summary, no one can predict when these types of moves are going to unfold. It is all about the probability of the location. At the lows I specifically pointed out that sentiment was completely inverse to where we were at the December highs. Now that price has established clear bullish structure, we can form new expectations about behavior in the near future. It is reasonable to expect higher lows and supports to hold. We know where the most attractive prices are, but we don't know if the market will test them. No market rallies in a straight line. Over the next week or so, a retrace of an unknown magnitude is likely. At S.C. patience is our guide as we follow best practices and wait for a favorable setup. Also there is a rumor that I am leaving TV. I am flattered that the community would notice something like that, but it is NOT true. This community has been very warm and supportive and I am grateful for the ability and experience to be able to help others on here. I was new to this game once and understand the struggles all too well. There is no better reward than people reaching out to thank me for providing a better learning experience. All I wrote in my previous report was at S.C. we are making some changes in regard to the availability of our content.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
53
BTCUSD: Playing Noise On The Way To 6850.BTCUSD update: The 6320 inside bar high has been taken out which equates to a long trigger. Since then price has been slow to rally which is not surprising in this environment. Even though the inverted head and shoulders is still in progress, there is a lot of indecision. And this indecision offers opportunities if you know what they look like. Earlier today I published a trade article on S.C. for Litecoin. The article highlighted another swing trade idea which is in the form of a limit order. We have been fishing for better prices with limit orders because we are not in an aggressive freight train market. Instead we are in an order flow environment that is unsure of itself. This means buying breakouts is going to be a tough game. Why take pain when you can take advantage of it instead? That is the premise behind placing limit orders under the market in this environment. As long as our bigger picture scenario is still in play, we are willing to take the risks associated with these types of orders. We have an order sitting at 6120 which almost triggered a couple of days ago. This is within the 6167 to 5999 minor support zone (.618 of recent bullish swing). Any retest of this area will present a new buying opportunity as long as a reversal sign appears such as a pin bar. Reasonable potential for this market is 6850 which is the recent swing high. If this market can get through that, the 7120 reversal zone boundary serves as the next target. In summary, the next week should be an interesting one. All BTC needs is an unexpected catalyst to spark the squeeze. And this is not something an oscillator will help you with. Only the probability of the location along with best practices can at least guide you along the right path. If our limit order never gets filled, that is okay because at S.C. we simply wait for the next opportunity to present itself. Missing trade setups will not wipe out your trading account, but forcing trades will. The only penalty you get for being patient is the one you put on yourself. We are going to restrict our analysis and reports on S.C. to members only. Make sure to learn and observe what you can before we changeover.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
10
ETHUSD: 442 Inside Bar Trigger Setting Up For Low 500s Target.ETHUSD update: Price has tested the 423 reversal zone boundary for a second time. Following BTC, it appears this market is also gearing up to establish a higher low formation. There is now a new inside bar in place. If the next candle takes out the 442 high, it will activate a buy trigger and The next leg higher can run into the resistance zone around the low 500's. Earlier today I published an article on S.C. that touched on the inverted head and shoulders pattern that is in progress in the BTC market. Price is currently establishing the right shoulder and missed my limit buy order by 5 points. If BTC manages to maintain the higher low, it will signal a new wave of bullish momentum in general. An inverted head and shoulders pattern in BTC is a significant sign of broader strength. This is the type of pattern that can be anticipated in a high probability reversal location like BTC has been in for some time. And if BTC chooses to test 6850, that would coincide with this market testing the 494 to 518 minor resistance (.618 of recent bearish swing relative to 548 high). That would also result in the break of the more recent bearish trend line in the 470s which further adds to the bullish argument. What makes this market even more compelling is the attractiveness of the reward/risk. Risk can be measured from the 417 low or 392 low, which ever one is more in line with your tolerance. From current levels that is anywhere from 14 to 40 points of risk while the reward potential is at least 60 points. At S.C., this certainly fits within the parameters of our swing trade criteria. In summary, like I have been writing in my S.C. articles, a market that is going through the bottoming process will be noisy. Understanding how to use technical analysis to measure probabilities is key to navigating an environment like this. Keep in mind, the inside bar low can also be taken out which would generate a sell trigger. This is when you must consider the probability of the broader location and is part of the reason why we place more weight on the buy trigger. Consider focusing on tools that help you anticipate rather than react. Support and resistance and candle sticks are two elements that offer a better read compared to your standard oscillator. Often the best opportunities start out as the ugliest prices.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
4
ETHUSD: Triangle Points To Strength. Noise Offers Better Entry.ETHUSD update: As price consolidates, the formation that is unfolding signals further strength. A break above 476 and this market will be facing the 494 to 518 minor resistance zone. Obviously a break out in BTC is key. We are more interested in any retest of lower prices for either a failed breakout or higher low scenario. Triangles are typically trend continuation patterns. The standard buying of breakouts during these formations is not a bad idea if you are feeling aggressive. At S.C., we have been long term bullish for months but it is not in our plan to be aggressively bullish on the short term. We anticipate high probability opportunities IF this market, along with BTC, offers any retest of lower prices. This can unfold in the form of a failed range breakout on the bearish side, or a higher low structure around the 423 reversal zone boundary. We choose this more conservative stance because the 571 resistance level is still intact. This is the .382 resistance of the recent bearish structure relative to the 838 high. It helps us determine if a broader bullish movement is in progress or not. Since it is not, yet, the short term is more likely to be in a larger range bound environment. Like I have written numerous times, bottoms are a process and that process offers plenty of entry opportunities if you know what they look like. In summary, there is nothing wrong with taking a bullish break out if the next leg higher unfolds. We will not call it as a trade because it is better managed as a day trade in light of the risk and speed of change in this market. We navigate these markets according to the criteria set forth by our plan and so should you with yours. We also have to consider risk in light of the fact that our choices can also affect the actions of our followers which is why we lean more to the conservative side. As the short term price action transitions back to bullish, there will be a lot of noise. The most attractive opportunities will be the lows of this noisy range as long as a decisive new low is not established. Plan ahead for the possibilities and be prepared for those scenarios if they appear. If any swing trade opportunities present themselves, they will be shared with our followers.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
4
BTCUSD: Break Of Bearish Trend Line Means Bulls Taking Control.BTCUSD update: Inside bar formation leads to price spike into the 6431 to 6614 resistance zone. This should not be that surprising if you have been following my recent articles on S.C. and on here. The bearish trend line which was compromised in this move is the first confirmation that a broader bullish move is in progress. It all started with the pin bar 8 days ago. I wrote about the significance of it's size and location. The 6431 to 6614 resistance happens to be a minor .618 zone relative to the recent 6850 high. The simultaneous break of this zone and bearish trend line are significant signs of strength. As I wrote in my S.C. article earlier today, the shallow higher low which has been established by the inside bar, is a riskier location for a swing trade. Our plan is to wait for the next retrace in order to enter a swing trade long. An attractive location for a setup would be the 6126 to 5977 support zone (.618 of current bullish swing). In light of the probability of this broader area, we are anticipating a higher low formation rather than a retest of the lows on the next pull back. The mistake to avoid is to chase this market now. Even though it has potential on the bigger picture, the risk of retrace increases as it climbs. At S.C. we have been writing about accumulating inventory for weeks across all of these coins. As this market bottoms, we are in a general position to benefit, whether we catch the smaller individual trades or not. And that is the whole point of employing strategies across multiple time horizons. In summary, do not worry if you missed this squeeze. As I wrote on S.C., opportunities are infinite but at the same time infrequent. Patience is your best friend in these markets. One of the most valuable skills you can develop as a trader is the ability to wait. If a broader move higher is truely in progress, there will be more opportunities to get long that offer much better reward/risk. The next retrace will be a very important test for this market. Prepare for it now rather than fretting over the movement that has resulted from signs that appeared days ago.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
11
BTCUSD: Short Squeeze As USD Peaks. Is This The Beginning?BTCUSD update: After the 6170 long trigger, price tested the 6431 to 6614 minor resistance zone quickly. This also happens to be where the bearish trend line is located. This type of price action is not a surprise since we have been writing about the high probability location for at least two weeks now. The 6K psychological support, reversal zone boundaries at 5956 and 5669 along with the 8171 to 4938 broad support have been the focus. At S.C. we have been building inventory and continue to look for long trades in these markets. What appears to be the key driver behind this surge in momentum is the U.S. Dollar. If you take a look at a larger time frame Dollar Index chart, you will notice the same type of price action, but inverted. Instead of a failed low, you will observe a failed high. Interestingly enough, this reversal can been seen across forex pairs that counter the Dollar like EUR and GBP. Do not forget, the major coins trade against fiat, and the world reserve currency is still the USD. That means it carries the most weight. Any broad moves in the Dollar can have dramatic effects on these coins. If there is now a higher correlation to the USD, I want to be aware of it. For this reason I will be publishing a technical report on the USD on S.C. tomorrow so make sure to look for it. In summary, at S.C., we are waiting for the next swing trade entry long. Since bearish structures are still in play, a retrace is likely, but the probability of a subsequent higher low has increased. Any pull back into the 6K area, followed by a long trigger will prompt us to participate in another long trade idea. Stops and targets will continue to be conservative until broader bearish structures are taken out such as the 7381 resistance (.382 of current bearish structure). The probability of the broader location outweighs the smaller time frame noise. And it has been reiterating long over and over. Do not lose sight, especially if this market decides to retest the lows once more. The next pull back will either make or break the broader reversal that appears to be in progress.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
10
ETHUSD: Short Squeeze Setting Up. Can Lead To 490s.ETHUSD update: This market is poised to rally. The break of the 443 previous candle high was a long trigger. I am not calling any trade ideas on here because that is what S.C. is for, but I will highlight the potential. Price went as low as 405 which looked ugly, but the key is how the candle closes. This candle that established the low closed strong, and it this materialized off of the 423 reversal zone boundary. A bullish sign to say the least. I have been writing on S.C., that these markets are bottoming, but it takes time and a lot of patience. The structure and location have been weighing probability on the side of strength, even in the face of the recent bearish price action. The current low of 405 is not dramatically lower than the recent 450 swing low. Along with that, all of this price action is still occurring well above the 374 historical low. This sums up to a broad higher low formation and BTC is doing the same thing basically. If these markets rally, a short term expectation is at least the 490s for this market. That is a conservative view since the short term bearish structures are still intact and must be considered until they are taken out. In summary, broader structure and location are panting a picture of reward/risk that is skewed toward the bullish side across these markets. The bearish structures that are still in play suggest conservative expectations would be most appropriate for size, target and stop. Remember that market bottoms are a process and take time to develop. In that process lows can be tested and retested before any meaningful progress on the long side unfolds. Any new swing trade long ideas that we take on S.C., will be shared with our followers.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
9
ETHUSD: Bottoming Formation Materialzing Around 423 Level.ETHUSD update: Similar to the bottoming pattern in BTC, this market is now in a high probability area to retrace. What makes this market even more interesting is the fact that the current low is still no where near the 374 low. A rally here is not only a broader sign of strength, but offers greater potential compared to a counter trend retrace. Earlier today on S.C., I published a BTC article about bottoming patterns. They are usually made up of a series of structures, but what makes them most significant is where they are developing. The pattern is actually clearer in this market than it is in BTC. The 418 low is not that much lower than the 450 low, a pin bar is present off the 423 reversal zone boundary and now a spinning top is materializing off the same level. Together, these structures could be the beginning of an inverted head and shoulders formation which is bullish. If this pattern continues to unfold around the current price level, it would also be establishing a very broad higher low formation. I wrote about this in a previous report that looked at the Elliott Wave count. The potential target for a broader higher low formation is the 581 resistance (.382 of recent bearish structure). This will not happen over night, but certainly within reason over the next month. In summary, like I have been writing on S.C., we always consider the broad probability of the location when evaluating levels and trends. We do not rely on oscillators or moving averages for these situations because they are not the most effective tools for anticipating broad reversals. For that reason we manage inventory as well as short term swing trades when the risk makes sense. At the present, the reward/risk is favoring both position and swing trade strategies long. It is all a matter of having a process to quantify that risk and decide if it is within the scope of your tolerance. If the current spinning top closes and the next candle takes out the high, that is a technical trigger to go long. We are long BTC so we will not be officially calling this trade idea in order to keep risk within the scope of our overall plan.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
14
#BTCUSD - TIME TO GO LONG ! Medium Term - It is Free - Enjoy !Hi Followers and Friends, Finally=> Go Long for a Big Wave. PROs Surfers Can see a Big Wave formation far ahead and the best spot to stay to get on it, as regular surfers cannot see anything coming. Actually, beginners and intermediate surfers spot fake waves and waist energy and time, riding short and bad waves. To get on a good wave, that will last long and give you the best ride, is not something easy. You need to spot it very far ahead, because you need to paddle to the exact place to be able to ride it. Then you have to believe on it, and paddle hard to stay on it, until the the wave starts to break. It is the same thing here on crypto trading. Moving Water is working really hard for you to spot the market flow. As you all know, MOVING WATER does not grounds it's Technical Analysis on graphic trading patterns, or drawings, but on the market flow, just like the waves flow. The main mistake that traders repeat is to consider the same graphic patterns to different market moments. The ocean has many patterns, but they are different almost every time. So, before using a pattern is necessary to understand the market flow. Market is not rigid, and does not respect rigid forms, because, like the waves, it is Not Rigid. BTC / Bitcoin just hit a very strong support area and now has ground to search and test higher prices. Like the Moving Water predicted a long time ago, it was necessary for BTCUSD re-test 6K, that just happened. Target is on the chart. Could go a litter higher or lower, depending on the market flow and the broker you use. Let's see if the Moving Water can Spot a Big Wave. Hope the Best for you All. M.W. Good Luck and Good Profit ___________________________________________________________ ADVICE: __________ => DON'T LOSE: Remember This is Very Dangerous Market so try to not Lose All Your Money on This, and You can already call yourself a winner: Beginners: Don't Trade (Bullish/Bearish) Market - Don't Trade Bull Trap - Don't Borrow Money Intermediate : Trade Bullish Market Only (Low Risk) - Don't Short - Don't Borrow Money Advanced: Trade Bullish or Bearish Market ( Low Risk) - Don't Trade Bull Trap - Don't Borrow Money Experienced: Trade Bullish or Bearish Market ( Medium Risk) - Trade Bull Trap (Low Risk) - Borrow Some Money Top: Trade Bullish or Bearish Market (High Risk - Big Money) - Trade Bull Trap (High Risk) - Borrow Some Money Follow This and the Risk of Losing Everything Falls to 90%. ______________________________________ => MARKET FLOW: Market never happens at once, there will always be many moves inside the waves if you look close enough. When I spot a Trend and post it here, it does not mean it will go at once, or at that exact moment I post. These Charts I post are Medium/Long Term - so takes weeks/months to complete. => CHARTS = (MEDIUM/LONG) TERM - Please Don't Be Confused (Takes weeks/months to Complete) ___________________________________ => PLACING ORDERS: At this moment, I am NOT offering buy and sell signals, you need to Do Your Own Research when Placing Your Orders and Stop Loss. You must do your own due diligence. => STOP LOSS: That's a responsibility a person should have with their own money, I don't have the influence on that. I strongly advise you to use a stop loss. Try to catch the waves, but with a secure area, and limit your risks, considering a loss you can afford. _________________________________________ => MORE INFORMATION: check Related Ideas Below. => PLEASE: Comment, Suggest better ideas, Ask questions inbox, Help me improve, Give a Like and Follow.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
284
BTCUSD: Bullish Pin Bar Appears In Major Support Area.BTCUSD update: Bullish pin bar forming off of the 6K psychological support area. This should not be very surprising since the probability in this area favors such activity. Now is the time to prepare for the next leg higher. The first consideration is long potential. On S.C., we have been constantly writing about the opportunity at these lows for position trades. If you have the vision, capital and courage, these are great levels to add to inventory. I just published another article today about Litecoin. The great thing about these levels are they now offer attractive reward/risk for shorter term trades. We are eyeing such a level for a swing trade long, but are waiting for confirmation. If a trade triggers here, the target will most likely be in the low 6600's. Although a pin bar of this size implies greater strength, we will not have high expecations of a broader recovery until the trend line is taken out at 6750 for starters. From there, 7381 (.382 resistance relative to current bearish structure) is the next level that must be compromised in order to prove sustained strength. The question is did any of the herd members who depend on oscillators and moving averages see this coming? Probably not since they are relying on tools that look backward. We have been watching this area carefully for this type of price action because we anticipate. That is why you do not see any oscillators on my chart. Consider the probability of what is ahead. Price is fluctuating around the 6K major psychological support. Along with that, two reversal zone boundaries: 5956 and 5669. As I wrote in my previous BTC report, this area is attractive for buyers, especially the strong hands or smart money. Now that the market is beginning to confirm this scenario, we are waiting for a specific signal that is partially determined by the close of the current candle. If a trade idea goes into effect, the details will be available on S.C. only. In summary, in my Litecoin article that I published today I wrote about being a contrarian. During times of extreme sentiment, like we have been seeing in these markets, the real opportunity is for those who can see beyond technical analysis. A very common mistake most traders and investors make, especially less experienced ones, is they are looking for precision, exactness and safety. Real opportunity is messy, imprecise and is far from the obvious. This is especially true at extreme price locations like we are seeing. In order to see ahead clearly, you must not depend on tools that look backward. Trend following indicators have their place, but if you do not understand their limitations, you will continue to be blind to the probabilities that are more in line with the natural tendencies of the market.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
26
BTCUSD: 6850 Double Top Break Can Lead To Test Of 7Ks.BTCUSD update: Bearish pin bar low taken out by current candle, a sell signal, only for it to bounce right back. This is a bullish sign which makes sense in light of the general area price has been trading. Keep in mind, there is a great deal of conflict in this area with short term bearish structures going against a broader bullish location. People are going to see different things depending on the time frame being observed. At S.C., we are focused on the potential of the big picture. Even in the face of a sell signal, this market is in a broad support zone that I have been writing about for months. This would be the 8171 to 4983 area which is the .618 of the entire bullish structure relative to the 150 lows. Bearish signals in such an area are high risk, unless you are day trading and using small profit targets. Even then it is hard to justify the benefits considering the amount of attention and costs that go into such an activity. If the 6850 minor double top breaks, this market can squeeze to the low 7Ks which is where the bearish trend line is located. This is a reasonable expectation for a short term move. The question is, what happens at the trend line? If a lower high is established, this market can see another attempt at the 6K low. This scenario can present an attractive buying opportunity which we will be watching for. If the trend line breaks, the 7790 resistance (.382 of recent bearish structure) is the next bearish obstacle. When that level is taken out, the short term outlook will switch from bearish to bullish which changes how we determine stops, targets and expectations. In summary, I often have to repeat that this is not about predictions. It is all about IF. At S.C., we let the market make the choices and based on that information we make adjustments or take no action at all. Since we focus on the bigger picture, and follow best practices, we prefer to bet on the long side, even when it is counter to the short term price action. Market timing is an arena where in reality there are no rules. The only limitations we face are set by our capital and exchange regulations. There is nothing that says when the game begins, how it is played or when it concludes. In this space, you must define every aspect of the game, and that is what an investment or trading plan is all about. Without one, you will be part of what makes a market liquid, not a participator who capitalizes on liquidity. Just something to think about.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
18
ETHUSD: Slow But Still Poised To Test 544 Resistance Area.ETHUSD update: Lack of follow through makes this coin a tough one to hold for a swing trade long, but it is still in a good position to rally. While short term structure remains bearish, do not lose sight of the broad higher low formation that appears to be in progress. The structures that prompted us at S.C. to call for a swing trade long are still in place. The failed low off of the 458 reversal zone boundary, the break of the high of the bullish pin bar and the 544 to 464 support zone location. The tricky part has been the recent bearish inside bar formation, but if the 521 high is taken out, this market can push back up to the 625 resistance. At S.C., the swing trade that we are in is betting on the broad higher low formation relative to the 374 low. Higher lows often lead to higher highs. Even though at this magnitude, it will not happen in a straight line. Once the formation is in play, the short term probabilities will shift decisively to the bullish side. A close above the bearish trend line at the 544 area will be the first sign. And a decisive close above 625 will be the second. When will this market behave this way? I have no idea. All I know is that at current levels, the probability of a larger magnitude retrace is greater. Keep in mind, our current swing trade has a target lower than these levels. We will keep targets conservative until after the market proves that a broader recovery is in play. At that point, any new trades will feature targets that are more appropriate for that type of environment. In summary, all eyes are on BTC. The reason why I even write about this market and its levels is just to quantify the reward/risk of our specific swing trade. The fact that an inside bar has formed and there is price hesitation are bullish signs. As long as price does not break below 450, chances are better that this market retests the 544 bearish trend line. I gauge probabilities relative to the price action presented on a chart. I do not "predict" anything, instead I just listen and adjust as the market instructs me to. Standard oscillators are not the most effective tool to discover this perspective. Information based on raw price action is.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
1
BTCUSD: Momentum May Be Slow, But Mid 6K Support Is The Focus.BTCUSD update: The bullish momentum has slowed once again, but that does not mean the bears are back in control. Yet. The 6565 area support is still in play along with a newly established inside bar. In this report I will evaluate both sides in an attempt to offer some perspective in terms of reasonable expectations. On the bear side, the trend line is still clearly intact. Price needs to push 7K in order to prove a broader recovery is in effect. With the lower high made at 6736, a lower low into the 5956 reversal zone is within reason. A break of the 6300 low will signal that the next leg lower is in effect. Certainly something to be aware of. On the bull side, the previous candle is an inside bar which can act as a long trigger as well. If the mid 6600's get taken out, a push to the high 6Ks to low 7Ks is also within reason. What gives this market a bullish argument is the price location. Fluctuating between 6565 and 6005 which are two major support levels, in conjunction with the broad support zone overlap. 8171 to 4983 is a very wide zone, but it is the .618 support area relative to the entire bullish structure going back to the 150 lows. Knowing the relevance of this large area offers perspective in terms of inventory building, not short term swing trading. If you are going to invest, or accumulate inventory, this range of prices is the most attractive area compared to buying at 10K for example. At S.C., we have been accumulating other coins along with BTC and writing about it. We also have a swing trade in ETH, so we are still betting on the long side. A ton of patience and flexibility is required though. Our short term plan is to shave off profits IF this market can come close to testing the bearish trend line. Any push into the extreme lows, like the 5656 or 5669 reversal zones will also prompt additional inventory building. Check S.C. for updates. In summary, like I wrote in yesterday's BTC report (on S.C.), these are hated markets right now. Buying volume will be lower, and recoveries slower, but it does not mean the long term merit of these markets has changed. Only the sentiment and excitement of the crowd has. Perfect for the contrarian who buys when the crowd unloads, and then sells back to them when they get excited at extreme highs. Part of being able to hang on to ugly markets is believing in the long term, and also being able to lose. I can't emphasize how important the losing part is. I had to learn the hard way that if you can't lose, you can never win. If safety is a big concern, you are in the wrong markets. It is that mentality that separates the strong hands from the weak.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
16
LTCUSD: Playing Follow The Leader. What Is A Reasonable Target?LTCUSD update: Current price action appears to be signaling the beginning of a broader retrace across the board. This market is simply following along but offers some interesting observations as far as levels go. 90.58 is the reversal zone boundary relative to the 108 area low made back in April. The fact that price has taken out the high of the previous day's candle is a bullish sign. As I wrote in my earlier report on S.C., we do need to be aware of some of the major economic events. You don't need to know the details, you just need to know what time the economic event is going to occur. Events like NFP, FOMC and any other interest rate sensitive releases for major currencies. Do not forget that the digital coins are exchanged for local fiat and we take fiat stability for granted since it moves only fractions of a penny. Today the ECB hammered the forex market and this markets reacted. Again, it is just good practice to be aware of the major events. It can help shed more light on particular price action or levels. The big question now is can this bounce evolve further into a sustained price recovery? To offer some perspective in this area, I can say that at S.C., we issued a long idea in ETH. Basically, no matter what coin you bought, it is all the same trade. Since bearish structure is still intact, we have chosen a conservative target. The strategy behind the target? Since potential is still bearish in these markets, we would rather take profits sooner than not to mitigate risk. And since all these markets are just following BTC, the same philosophy should apply. In this market, the 112 area would be the nearest target since that is where the bearish trend line is located. Also the 125 resistance is the .382 of the recent bearish swing. If price makes it back there, that would be a convenient second target. Keep in mind as long as price stays below this level, it is a better idea to remain conservative with short term long positions. In summary, focus on price and structure and you will align yourself more with probability rather than randomness. The market dictates its intentions through its natural formations which are nothing more than patterns expressed through order flow. Like I wrote earlier, it is a good idea to be aware of events that can affect a market, but do not try to guess how the market will be affected. Let the emotions of the crowd bring the setup to you, not the other way around. Check S.C. for updates on our swing trade long.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
2
ETHUSD: When It's Hard To Argue With The Signs? Long.ETHUSD update: Beginning of retrace appears to be in progress with BTC making it back to 6500 after a significant low made earlier today. The swing trade criteria has lined up and a long has been triggered at 485 (sent to followers on S.C. earlier). Even though these markets have been very bearish recently, they do not decline in a straight line. Retraces happen, and when they offer greater potential reward than the cost in terms of risk, a trade can be justified. This is the situation with this market. In terms of structure, price is in the process of establishing a failed low formation. This is happening while bouncing off the reversal zone boundary of 458. A level that has been in place since May. On top of that, this retrace is occurring within the 544 to 464 support zone which is the .618 of the recent bullish structure. The trigger developed in the form of a bullish pin bar off the 458 level. When it becomes hard to argue with the signs, it is time to trade. The rest of the trade details like the stop and target are available on S.C. I chose a conservative target because bearish structure is still in place. The bearish trend line and the 625 resistance level (.382 of current bearish structure) have not been taken out. Until they are, it makes more sense to expect less from the long side. In summary, we have been writing adamantly about accumulating coins during this time of unjustified negativity. As Andrew wrote in an earlier article on BTC, if you believe in the merit of these technologies for the long run, meaning over years, then there is no reason not to buy extreme weakness. If this retrace turns out to be strong, that is when everyone who is hesitant to buy now will feel comfortable jumping in. And guess what we will be doing? Locking in profits. It may feel counter intuitive, to buy markets that have been so weak, but the comfort zone is not your friend. Especially in financial markets. Remember, it's about probability, not profitability. And if the trade stops out, it will still be considered a correct trade since it was within the criteria of our swing trade plan.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
12
BTCUSD: Randomness At Its Best Waiting For Better Setup.BTCUSD update: This market is trading around the middle of a consolidation. This is probably the most random price action you can possibly get and is best to avoid. The reason is simple: price is consolidating near multiple resistance levels. With the 7896 resistance zone boundary still in play, it is tough to justify swing trade longs at this level. As I wrote earlier on S.C., price is currently within the 7620 to 7687 minor resistance zone which is a .618 of the recent bearish swing. Overlapping this level is the bearish trend line that has been in play for some time. On top of that, 7896 is just over 200 points above, which is very possible for this market to test. This level is a reversal zone boundary which means if the break out of this consolidation is going to fail, that is the most likely area for it to happen. Remember, this does not mean it will fail. Price may very well break through and test the 8185 resistance which I have been writing about for some time. The idea is to be prepared in case price does present reversal patterns. At S.C., we have nothing to do but watch since there are no patterns worth justifying risk. We are keeping close eye on a number of alts and accumulating them for our portfolios, but that is beyond the scope of this article. In my earlier report, I talked about the levels that we are interested in. If the market is able to retest, then perhaps we get an opportunity. All we can do is follow our plan, not force on plan on the market.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
19
ETHUSD: Poised To Break Higher But 641 Points To Vulnerability.ETHUSD update: The slow grind is a pleasant market to watch if you are managing positions over the long term. If you are trying to open a new position, it can be very hard to watch because it can turn at any point, but slowly continues higher. What is not obvious is the risk of retrace which I will talk more about in this report. Price is about to retest the 625 resistance (.382 of recent bearish swing). This level has previously proven to attract selling activity. The question is do these bears return? The higher low established at 575 indicates that price is more likely to push higher, but this is where the risk of retrace comes into play. The 641 reversal zone boundary is relative to the 628 high and is the area to watch for bearish formations IF a fake out is in order for these markets. Keep in mind, this is not a prediction, it is a scenario to be prepared for. If the newly established bullish trend line stays intact, this market may be on its way to a new high and a decisive close above the 628 level. This will change the short term outlook from bearish to bullish. At S.C., we are not taking any new swing trade longs because price is too close to resistance levels. We would rather miss the low probability trade, even if it works out this time. We know that in the long run, the same trade would produce inconsistent results and that is not in line with our goal. Our plan is to wait for better prices which means a retest of 575 would have to happen. If price continues higher, then we will be evaluating for the next swing trade long opportunity.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
9
BTCUSD: Higher Low, But Climbing Back Into Reversal Zone.BTCUSD update: Dramatic run up back to 7600s after making a low of 7372. About 40 points above the support zone I wrote about previously. It does not matter why it happened. What is more important is what is likely to happen next and is there any opportunity here? In one sentence, the answer is there is nothing here. No level, no trade setup. Just random price action. Price is touching the bearish trend line and appears poised to break, but that is not enough information for us to justify a trade. At S.C., we are not interested in any new long positions at this level. We will especially be steering clear of any prices near the 7896 reversal zone boundary. Also we are not losing sight of the fact that 8185 is still intact. This is the .382 resistance of the recent bearish structure. As long as this level is not compromised, we will be leaning more to the bear side in the short term. Keep in mind this does not mean we go short. We are long term bullish and are interested in swing trade long setups, and extreme prices to add to long term inventory. If you do have the ability to go short, I would keep risk to a minimum by limiting exposure to day trade strategies. And that is beyond the scope of my article. In summary, yes it's dramatic but there is no reason to react. If this market is going to break out, there will be plenty of new opportunities along the way. Until then, be patient and look ahead to see where the next potential inflection points are. If the market reacts at one of these points, you should at least have a better idea of what to expect. The question you must ask yourself: is it within the range of your trading plan to participate? If you don't know how to answer that, then you probably need to work on developing a well defined plan. Watch S.C. for more updates.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
26
ETHUSD: Swing Trade Long And Facing The Bearish Trendline.ETHUSD update: A swing trade idea was triggered at the break of 543.50 which was published on S.C. earlier today. There is also a follow up article that explains the reasoning behind the trade. As you can see, the trade is in the green for now. This retrace should not come as a suprise though. We have been writing about the support zones and risk of short squeeze for at least a week. When price reaches a predetermined level like the 544 to 464 support (.618 of recent bullish structure), it helps us to lean more toward expecting a reversal. Even when there is no sign of one which has been the case for the previous few days. It begins with probability and then is followed by pattern recognition. As far as where this market can go, the next resistance is 625 (.382 of recent bearish structure). There is no guarantee that price will go there, but in terms of proportion, this level is within reason. On S.C., I wrote about a specific target and why we chose that level. Keep in mind, there is a bearish trend line that is still in play. This is why we choose to lean more toward the conservative side when determining where to begin exiting the position. Can price retest the high 600's? Anything can happen, but we focus on probability, not profit. If the market chooses to continue to run, there will be plenty of opportunity to lighten up on the position and let some ride. In summary, this is a swing trade. It differs greatly from a position trade because of it's shorter term nature and specifically defined risk. We have also been building inventory during the general pessimism across a portfolio of coins, not just this one. When markets are ugly, that is the time to accumulate. When they look the greatest, that is the time to unload. In order to operate in line with this concept, you must separate yourself from your own natural impulses. Natural impulses like buying a market at the high, or being bearish at the low is further amplified by all of the hype, drama and social noise. Price is the best piece of information we can get, it is just a matter of learning how to listen to it.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
11
S&P500 Futures: Lack Of Selling And 2751 Breakout This Week?S&P500 update: The June futures contract is extending its consolidation further. Taking into account the context of the bigger picture, this market is still poised to go higher. Even in the face of a retrace to the 2680s, structure points to a summer rally. In this report I will highlight the levels to watch for and touch on one particular strategy we like to employ at S.C. in this environment. It is important to understand where this market is, and how its current behavior tells a story behind the price action. The 2710 to 2751 resistance zone is the .618 area of the recent bearish swing. When price is in an area like this, it is usually better to sell, or avoid, not buy. Unless there is an absence of selling which is what is happening here. Usually, when price reaches a resistance area, it is rejected quickly. When price is not rejected, that means there is no real selling pressure. The shorts that are positioning themselves are going to provide the order flow and momentum as motivated buyers once an appropriate catalyst invites new buyers. This short squeeze is often what leads to a break out and 2740 is the number we are watching for that. Triangles or consolidations serve as trend continuation patterns. And as long as the 2685 level (.382 of current bullish structure) is not taken out, this market is likely to continue higher. This is why we believe the current price structure and formation is a recipe for a summer rally. As I wrote in detail in my article on S.C. earlier today, there are many ways to participate in a market environment like this. Since we manage a number of portfolios at S.C., one of the strategies that we employ is selling naked puts. Yes in general a short put is risky and ties up a lot of margin, but we do this with particular stocks that pay dividends, not speculative stocks. In a slow grind bullish environment, front month puts sold at the right time can provide a nice way to capitalize on the range bound environment. If the market falls apart and you choose to take delivery, you are essentially getting paid to own a good stock that you can then collect dividends and sell calls on. In summary, the S&P is a not only a broad index to measure fund managers against, but it provides a lot of useful information to base other decisions on. Knowing that the stock market is generally strong and still has more potential (2800 to 3K over next 6 months) provides a framework to manage your portfolio within. Whether you want to trade outright futures contracts, the ETF or timing portfolio decisions, there is plenty of opportunity. It all depends on your style and how you manage risk. At S.C. we employ multiple strategies, across a variety of instruments. Options are just one way to play. Make sure to check out today's article and performance page.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarcPMarkets
4
Good News ! Why Mistake ? Consensus Conference - 2018Hi, Trading View - Welcome Followers and Visitors, How nice is to be aware of a good news, before everybody else, and invest in it before goes moon with 100% accuracy? So, Good News ? How could it Go Wrong ? Well, that is not so easy as it seems. Example of Good News: The Initial public offering of Facebook, on May 18, opened on $38 and on August 20, it dropped to $20, even though banks and investment advisors told all around the opposite. www.washingtonpost.com en.wikipedia.org Market is never so easy, but always creative constantly coming up with new moves, and surprises for those who think it is easy. Don't Trust Good News or Bad News to trade, but the Market Flow. The Consensus Conference - 2018 is ongoing - What Now for BTCUSD / BTCUSDT / BTC ? www.forbes.com Good News or Bad News? Bitcoin is it still going Moon? What do you think? For MORE INFORMATION check Related Charts below. Feel free to: comment, suggest better ideas, ask questions inbox, help me improve, post a better chart on the comment, Give A Like and Follow. ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ADVICE: _______ STOP LOSS is something everybody should use, everything is possible in this market. But, that's a responsibility a person should have with their money, I don't have the influence on that. I strongly advise, you to use a stop loss. In this crazy world everything is possible, even a sudden going to 0. Ex: If there is a world war. So, try to catch the waves, but with a secure area, and limit your risks, considering what you can afford. __________________________________________ GOOD LUCK & GOOD PROFIT. Please Press -- LIKE -- , If so, Thank You. Thanks for following.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
12
Spotted:Big Fall & Bull Trap -6 days Before Bad News. Possible ?Hi, Followers and Visitors, Welcome. First of all, thank you for trusting: 3rd TARGET HIT ! Is it possible to spot a Bull Trap, then a Big Fall on BTCUSD , 6 days before Bad News comes and becomes Viral ? The Moving Water - A New Trading Perspective, actually, did spot it, because it does not wait for bad news to spot a fall. Doesn't trust on bad news or good news. Doesn't wait on them. Considers the chart, and all the informations that the market gives. As you can see, after bad news was viral, panic came up, and it was too late to get money, or not lose it. Also, before that, still there was a FOMO. ( Fear of Missing Out). Even though news was already out online, many people believed it was time to buy BTC, because it was time to go UP hard, so don't trade FOMOS. Again, I am sorry for those who are long and bought it at 19k, but when market says it is going down, or going up, no one holds it. So, it is not my fault if it is going down. I just can see it. Don't believe that my small analysis could influence the market. Not even whole Trading View are able to influence and stop a big wave. Posted the bull trap chart on May 3rd, for BTCUSDT , saying it would go to 10k, but just after that, it had an update saying: 10 k is out, because, The Moving Water could spot that BTC was not gonna hit 10k on top of the Bull Trap, and it did not get there but very close, as you can see on the chart. So far so good. 2 targets to go. For more information check related charts below. Feel free to: comment, suggest better ideas, ask questions inbox, help me improve, post a better chart on the comment, and GIVE A LIKE and FOLLOW. ADVICE: STOP LOSS is something everybody should use, everything is possible in this market. But, that's a responsibility a person should have with their money, I don't have the influence on that. GOOD LUCK & GOOD PROFIT. PLEASE: Press LIKE Thanks for following.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
31