Bitcoin's Wild Ride Amid ETF RumorsBitcoin's price surged by 10% in the early hours of New York trading after news broke that the U.S. SEC had approved the iShares Spot BTC ETF. However, this uptick was short-lived due to the confirmation that the news was false.
Long-time traders who had opened short positions faced significant losses, with nearly $80 million in short positions liquidated, alongside about $18 million in long positions. This reaction could signal a potential market crash if the U.S. SEC indeed approves the immediate BTC ETF, an outcome it's currently considering. The false rumors pushed Bitcoin's price down to the $28,000 range, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding above 50.
The unusually long daily candlestick resulting from these mistaken speculations resembles a true 'exhaustion candle' and might indicate an upcoming reversal in the short-term uptrend, hinting at vulnerabilities ahead. Bitcoin's price could lose its entire foundation by October 16, potentially dropping below the psychological support level at $26,000. Breaking below this trendline would confirm even deeper losses.
Only a daily candle closing above the resistance level at $29,747 could confirm the uptrend, paving the way for an extension towards the psychological level of $30,000. In a strong bullish scenario, Bitcoin might surpass July's peak, reaching the upper range of $31,804. Such a move would represent a 15% increase from the current level.
Stay tuned for more updates as Bitcoin navigates these volatile market conditions.
Btcusdsignals
BITCOIN Have you forgotten what LOGARITHMIC is all about??In the early days Bitcoin (BTCUSD) charts were very often about its parabolic rallies not just on a large Cycle scale but also shorter term. That's because its been having a Logarithmic Growth since its inception.
Lately though it appears that most have forgotten all about this. Let's refresh our memory on that logarithmic truly means for Bitcoin. On this 1W chart, we display BTC's heavy benchmarks on the logarithmic (log) scale. $1 gave way to $10 (leg a) in 17 weeks (119 days), then it took 96 weeks (679 days) to reach the (psychologically critical for the time) $100 benchmark (leg b). $1000 (leg c) was reached in 34 weeks (238 days), while $10000 (leg d) took 209 weeks (1463 days) after that to get hit.
Pure logarithmic growth, nothing more nothing less. An interesting observation here is that $100-to-$1000 (leg c) took double the time of leg a (c = a*2). In same fashion, leg d ($1000-to-$10000) was also almost twice as leg b (d = b*2). Could it be that the next leg (e), i.e. $10000 to $100000 (which is seen by the market as the new psychological level/ benchmark in Bitcoin's evolution) would be twice as lengthy as leg d, i.e. e d*2? This is translated to a time range of 418 weeks (2926 days), which gives us a rough projection of December 08 2025.
Could that be the correct timing for hitting Bitcoin's Holy Grail target or is it too late? Do you think its always good to keep an eye on the basics of Bitcoin's logarithmic growth? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD 13/10 MovePair : BTCUSD ( Bitcoin / U.S Dollar )
Description :
Bearish Channel in Long Time Frame and Rejection from the Lower Trend Line and making Consolidation Phase in Short Time Frame if it Breaks Upper Trend Line then it can Reach its Previous Support or Upper Trend Line of Channel
Entry Precautions :
Wait until it Breaks UTL or LTL
BITCOIN Haven't we seen this before??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) tends to repeat its historic patterns. Not always in the exact same way but some principles remain. Since March 2023 we see a consolidation/ accumulation pattern which in our opinion draws comparisons with April - June 2020.
A Falling Wedge gave way to an aggressive break-out that formed an arc top, which then declined again below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). At the moment we are in the phase where the price is again above the 1D MA50. As you can see the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) has been supporting this whole time, since it formed a Bullish Cross with the 1D MA50. The RSI patterns between the two fractals are also similar.
We are well aware that 2020 was a Halving year while 2023 is not, but at least on a micro level, do you think that if the 1D MA50 holds, it will give way to some type of short-term rise? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN & Chinese stocks. The Divergence that happens mid-Cycle.This is another very informative study that brings together Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and this time, the Chinese stock market (CN50 - blue trend-line). We are looking into the last two Cycles and how in particular the Chinese stocks often lead BTC moves before they happen.
Our focus is in the phase after the Bear Cycle bottom and before the Halvings. As you can see during both of the last market bottoms, the Chinese stocks started to rise first and a few weeks after BTC followed. This led us to the Divergence phases (then 2019 now 2023), which precede the Halving events. During those phases, we see the two assets diverge. In 2019 the Chinese stocks kept rising while BTC fell. In 2023 the Chinese stocks are declining but on a low pace, while BTC mostly rose.
Theoretically, the closer we will get to the Halving, the more the two should converge. But does this mean that a potential rise on Chinese stocks will first make BTC decline more? Or it will resume the norm that China will lead BTC moves again, i.e. BTC will follow with a rise of itself?
What do you think, which scenario will take place first? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Yuan & China bonds tell you everything you need to know!This is not the first time we emphasize the strong correlation of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) with Yuan (USDCNY) and the Chinese Bond Yields (CN02Y and CN20Y). We made an analysis right in the aftermath of the FTX crash, indicating why those indicators have all aligned, paving the way for BTC's new Bull Cycle. As you see that happened and this time we incorporate two mixed elements, the USDCNY/CNY20Y (red trend-line) and the CN02Y/CN20Y (blue trend-line).
** The CN02Y/CN20Y ratio **
Every time the CN02Y/CN20Y ratio's Lower Highs broke in the past, Bitcoin started the second phase of the Bull Cycle. Typically this was achieved while BTC was within a Channel Up (green). Right now the CN02Y/CN20Y ratio is testing its Lower Highs trend-line.
** The USDCNY/CN20Y ratio **
The CN02Y/CN20Y break-out has historically taken place a little after the USDCNY/CN20Y ratio peaked and started to decline. Not unexpected based on hard economics as a cheaper currency favors capital flowing to risky assets (such as Bitcoin). Right now the USDCNY/CN20Y ratio has started to decline but not emphatically yet, even though the 2023 rally is very similar to the ratio's peak rallies of January - March 2020 and June - October 2016.
** The harmony of the Sine Waves **
It is very interesting to point out the high degree of symmetry between those CN02Y/CN20Y break-outs and USDCNY/CN20Y rejections. We have applied the Sine Waves tool on them and the trend turns out so harmonic, almost like a Cycle itself. This shows that at the bottom of the Sine Waves, it has never been a bad idea to buy historically.
This mix is incredibly bullish for Bitcoin technically and it prompts to a new parabolic rally as we get closer to the next Halving, the likes of which we may have not seen in the past. But what do you think? Is this pattern good enough for you to buy when the ratio's Lower Highs break-out takes place? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTC 4HR Analysis - Short Opportunity Right Around the CornerBTC has failed three times in its attempt to ascend to the top of the bull channel with three-pin bar bear candles closing on or near their lows. It's been a slow bleed to the downside ever since last Friday. We are nearing the 200EMA on the 4HR and should expect some support here. A good short entry may be at the end of the next bull bar or two if you're not already in a short.
We should be looking for a breakout of the channel bottom with a bear bar closing on or near its low, followed by a retest of the channel resistance, and a confirmation bar to the downside. Such price action calls for a short back down to the bottom of this trading range we've been in since March of this year, which sets a target price of $25,000.
Trade wisely and let us know what you think in the comment section below!
$BTC's Key Resistance Trendline for This WeekBTC has been very bullish since late September and early October, but has reached strong resistance at $28k. The orange trendline is a key price target where BTC bulls and bears are struggling to gain control over this price level. The trendline acted as support for a few hours before ultimately breaking below, and is currently acting as short-term resistance. For now BTC is trading in a range between the white support zone and the $28k resistance level. In order for BTC to climb up higher this orange trendline needs to be flipped into support. The markets have been affected by the new Israel Palestine conflict. Other key events this week are September PPI inflation data and Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday October 11. I think the markets are likely to have some sideways price action on Tuesday in anticipation of the new inflation and fed data.
BITCOIN The Gaussian giving one of the rarest buys you can get.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within the (now green) Gaussian Channel since the mid-August decline. It is no surprise that it held that low and trade basically sideways as once the Gaussian turns green historically, it has signaled the phase of the bull market before the Halving. It shouldn't turn red again before the new Bear Cycle.
Last time BTC dipped inside a green Gaussian Channel after breaking into while red, was in October 2019. December - January 2020 followed with a strong rise before the non-technical and outside of any model's reach Black Swan event of COVID (which is an irregularity and doesn't count on our models).
As a result, such Gaussian green dip and trade is a rare buy opportunity during a Bull Cycle while prices are still relatively low. For reference, such an opportunity didn't emerge in the 2016 - 2017 Bull Cycle. Perhaps a 1W RSI at 40.00 would be the most ideal buy entry (lowest risk/ highest return).
But what do you think? Is this Gaussian pattern good enough for you to buy? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN May not face again a Resistance Zone as strong as this!!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is consolidating within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the last 10 days. This neutrality, this sideways price action may be directly attributed to the presence of the Lower Highs trend-line since the top of the previous Bull Cycle.
But it's not only that double hurdle level that BTC needs to overcome. Directly above it, we have the 31800 Resistance (July 13 2023 High), which is also the Mega Pivot Zone between the two Cycles, as it started as a Support Zone (closing all 1W candles from May - July 2021 above it with emphasis) and since May 2022 has been the Resistance to beat.
It becomes obvious that this is a quadruple Resistance level and quite frankly the strongest obstacle BTC has faced thus far during the 2023 recovery phase and quite possibly a Resistance Cluster the likes of which may not face again during this new Bull Cycle.
But what do you think? Is this the most critical Resistance Zone for Bitcoin and if so, will it break now? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD⚠️ Reaction From Hedger Premium Zone Out✔️BTCUSD is expected to rise
✔️Recommended to consider buying from the balance and premium level
🟢 Try to BUY🔼 all the Dips !!!
✔️Confirmation Buyer Limit Area
27.172 & 27.434 Zone
🔔 NEXT TARGET 29.225 & 29.660 Zone
Trade active:
Now try to go up with new buyers...
✔️Buy the dips!!!
BITCOIN Made a MACD Bullish Cross that opens the road to $40k!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has completed a Bullish Cross on the 3D time-frame and that helped the price last week to start the short term rise that broke above the 3D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since mid August. The previous 3 MACD Bullish Crosses have all delivered a Higher High within the 11 month Channel Up.
What's also interesting is how firmly the MA100 (green trend-line) held on the September 10 Low. Technically once BTC reclaims the MA50 (i.e. closes a full candle above it), the new bullish wave of the Channel Up will be confirmed. We expect it to test Resistance 2 at 40000, a critical psychological level.
Do you think this MACD Bullish Cross was what BTC needed to kickstart the new rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Cycle unlocked with Angle Theory! Can we reach 140-150k?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is having a strong break-out day on the 1D time-frames and below but this is only on the short-term. Still it is a step in the right direction on the long-term after trading sideways in the last 6 months within the 1W MA50 (Support) and 1W MA100 (Resistance).
** Cycle Peaks and angles **
Today's study brings you the a multi-cycle depiction on the 1W time-frame of BTC since the peak of its very first Cycle at $32. Those that followed ($1250, $19800, $69800) all made contact with the Logarithmic top Growth Curve, a historic pattern that is holding since BTC's inception.
It appears that every peak-to-peak measurement is roughly half of the previous peak. The automatic angle measurements on the (red) dotted lines may differ based on the screen's display and how the horizontal/ vertical axis move but on ours (and the screenshot of the idea) goes like this: 38°, 19°, 10°. We estimate a 6° angle for the new Cycle peak on the log Growth Curve.
** Next Cycle peak? **
If we take all previous Cycles and apply them to fit the new price action towards the top of the Log Growth Curve, that 6° line gives a projected Cycle peak within $140000 - 150000. It is also interesting to apply the same angle principle to the Cycle bottoms. We can see that those (green dotted lines) can also roughly be half of what the previous bottom was (though the variations are higher). The new bottom is estimated to be on a 7° angle.
Remarkably the angles of the tops and bottoms of each Cycle have approximately the same measurements, indicating that despite being logarithmic within a curve, they can be viewed separately in Channels.
So what do you think? Can Bitcoin reach $140-150k during this Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTC.D Predicts 38K BTC SoonI have been tracking the BTC.D Wyckoff Accumulation 3 Days Chart since last year and have posted its progress through all the Wyckoff Phases regularly.
It's time for another update on this.
So, in my last update we have seen BTC.D break up from the Accumulation zone and hit first resistance. Now it has come back down to test the Breakout zone.
As per the Wyckoff model, this is where the actual breakout happens.
Also, I have highlighted that BTC.D has been moving up in an upwards parallel channel and you can see what happens to BTC when BTC.D taps the lower edge of the parallel channel.
It has tapped the lower edge three times in the past since the 15K bottom which resulted in an average move of approx 45% in coming days and weeks. If this pattern continues, we should see 38K BTC very soon.
BTCUSD 29/09 MovePair : BTCUSD ( Bitcoin / U.S Dollar )
Description :
Consolidation Phase in Long Time Frame as an Corrective Pattern. It has completed " AB " Corrective Wave in a Corrective Pattern " Bullish Channel " if it Breaks Previous Resistance or Upper Trend Line then it will Complete its Impulsive Move
BITCOIN First close above the 1D MA50 in 2 months?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again today and is very close to registering the first 1D candle closing above it since August 01. At the same time it broke above the Lower Highs of the Falling Wedge pattern that started on the July 13 High.
If it succeeds today in closing above it, we hav e high probabilities of seeing the bullish extension of the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern (IH&S) we discussed last week materializing. The target extends as high as the 2.0 Fibonacci at 30000. The short-term target is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 28000. Interestingly enough Resistance 1 (28150) and Resistance 2 (30220) are near those two respective targets adding to their importance as supply levels.
Note that the 1D RSI has been on a strong Bullish Divergence since August 18 (candles on Lower Lows). That is why the IH&S has increased probabilities of breaking above the 2-month Falling Wedge pattern.
So what do you think? Is it time to break to the upside for good? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Don't expect any rebound as long as the USD is rising!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) failed again to break above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), closing instead the 1W candle in red and is pulling back. Today's study is on the 1W time-frame and compares BTC's price action through the whole year to the U.S. Dollar's (DXY).
You would expect a correlation between the two but as you can see on these charts, it has gotten increasingly tighter lately. BTC's last two medium-term declines are the direct consequence of DXY's price increases. When DXY bottomed and started to rise, BTC topped and started to decline (vice verse DXY topping, BTC bottoming). Obviously a far riskier asset like Bitcoin is trading in a more aggressive pattern like a Channel Up while the more stable by nature currency is trading/ consolidating within a Megaphone.
DXY the approaching the top of that Megaphone pattern, in fact it is very close to the 105.900 High of March. Having broken above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) this month, while BTC is still supported on its own, we can't be realistically expecting Bitcoin to rebound as long as the DXY continues to rise, unless an outside catalyst such as very favorable (adoption) news hit the market. Until then Bitcoin should seek a Support confirmation on its 1W MA50, while DXY should start forming a top in October.
But what do you think? Will Bitcoin rise irrelevant of what DXY will do, or we need to see a top on the latter first? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bull Run For BTC Traders. My Trade Lookout. {24/09/2023}Educational Analysis says BTCUSD may go Long according to my technical.
This is not an entry signal. I have no concerns with your profit and loss from this analysis.
Why long?
Broker Binance.
Because BTCfair value gaps are unfilled in a 4-hour time frame.
So one trade is already on with RR is 1: 17.43
I HAVE NO CONCERNS WITH YOUR PROFIT OR LOSS.
Happy Trading, Fxdollars.
BITCOIN Rejected on July's Resistance buy can this save the day?Last week we covered the Lower Highs trend-lines involved on Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) medium-term price action (see chart below) and how each break-out would be a Resistance break targeting the next in line:
The Lower Highs 1 trend-line broke and almost hit our 27550 Target but the rejection on Lower Highs 2 (started on the July 13 High) has been so far rather emphatic. This was also a near 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) rejection that pulled the price back below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As discussed previously, the Fibonacci retracement levels play an important role on this price action. It should be no surprise that the 0.236 Fibonacci is holding so far this pull-back, while the rejection took place on the 0.382 Fib.
On the bright side, the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) remains the long-term Support, while the 1D RSI is on a Bullish Divergence (Higher Lows as opposed to Lower Lows of the price). As a result, we may see Lower Highs 2 break especially if the pattern transitions into an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S). Technically such patterns target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension from their neckline. Surprisingly that is marginally below Resistance 2 (30220) and the 0.786 Fibonacci (30350). A straight 30000 target would be best for the medium-term.
We don't consider buying below Lower Highs 2 optimal, unless a new (last) pull-back towards the 1W MA50 occurs (excellent value entry). It would be more optimal to enter after a 1D candle closes above Lower Highs 2 or better yet a confirmed break of Resistance 1 (28150), which would be also a break above the 1D MA200.
So what do you think? Can this Inverse Head and Shoulders finally break above the Lower Highs and save the day for BTC? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Going for the Cycle's Lower Highs trendline and 1W MA100Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is about to test a major Resistance cluster, the Lower Highs trend-line from the Cycle's 2nd High and the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). The latter was the Resistance level that stopped the rally in July. The price has been essentially consolidating sideways within the 1W MA100 and 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) since. The former (Lower Highs) is the trend-line that was a key Resistance in the past two Cycles and its break-out coincided with the break above the 1W MA100 as well.
Today BTC is only 30 weeks (210 days) before Halving 4 (April 2024). Going back to the past two Cycles, we can see that in both cases the price was exactly on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level on that respective date/time range and at the same time above the 1W MA100 (though only marginally). Today the price is roughly $5000 below the 0.5 Fib and below the 1W MA100. Can this be an indication that this Cycle may not be as aggressive? We can't be sure but what we do know is that a break above the Lower Highs and 1W MA100 trend-lines would be a strong medium-term bullish signal, at least until next year's Halving.
But what do you think? Are you expecting Bitcoin to finally break above the Lower Highs trend-line and the 1W MA100 on the current rebound? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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