Is ~Bitcoin about to repeat the 2021 Double Top pattern ?If you have been following my posts, you will know that I am a firm believer that we are following the 2013 - 2017 ATH Fractal. Only problem is, The 2017 Top was NOT a Double Top.
But if we look at the fractal closely, we can see how this could happen and I will do this in another post shortly.
For now, there are other pointers to suggest we maybe about to repeat that sequence from 2021.
Lets start with this chart
I am using the 2nd ATH in 2021 as THE ATH for a number of reasons, as explained in other posts, But also because it simply WAS the highest ATH that year and was approx the same number of days between ATH as the 2013 - 2017 cycle.
That same day count takes us to September 2025, a projected ATH date range from a number of alternative charts.
If we assume we see a March 2025 High, the same number of days between the 2021 ATH's, applied to March 2025, also takes us to September 2025.
Some are saying we will see an ATH in December 2024 and that day count puts us in Mid summer and, to be honest, I do not see this now, given how overheated PA is. But anything can happen in Bitcoin.
This date range on the rising Trend line off ATH's, also takes us to the Expected price range of 100K - 130K ----for now........
** Note - Assumptions in trading are NOT recommended but we are just projecting here..NOT applying trades to that assumption.
Next we have the NUPL ( Net unrealised Profit Loss )
The Vertical dashed lines are the ATH dates.
And while the 2021 March ATH shows us a higher NUPL, this is where most profit taking was, as most assumed ( see above )
The real ATH was later and as most has already taken profit, people were trapped by Nov, but this is a different story..
What I want you to see is that we have not reached the upper line of Euphoria, that we are now in.
There could be more to come...
The TOP seems to be Signalled when PA Preaches this upper line, even if a ATH can be reached after, as in late 2021
Next, we have SOPR - (Spent Output Profit Ratio)
Simply put, when people SELL and take profit
Again, vertical dashed lines are previsou ATH in 2017 and 2021
First thing to notice here is how Profit taking happens BEFORE the ATH usually. See how the graph Drops to the ATH line.
Also not the Red Diamonds above..they are Warning of Bearish intent.
While we have seen a spike in selling recently, we are reciveing BULLISH intent warnings ( green diamond bottom of chart ). This appeared After that Red diamond above and so is a more recent signal.
The spike in selling in early 2023 was people taking quick profit after 2 years oif Bearish moves.
BUT it must be noted that the way this profit taking has constantly changed makes it VERY hard to read accurtaly as a method of judgement. There is no real pattern
Which brings us to the final indicator.
The ADX and DI - The Trend Strength and Price direction
I find this fascinating. VERY IMPORTANT to remember that ADX ( Yellow ) does NOT show Trend Direction
It only shows trend Strength and you can see that we have just begun turning around from a Drop in trend Strength. This Drop began in early 2024, around March, when we began months of ranging.
The recent push higher seems to be reflected in ADX rising also, showing an increasing Trend strength. BUT will it last ? You can see from the chart, we are on a line of resistance now...We need to break through that.
The Orange line is the DI + and the Red is DI - and not surprisingly show Price direction.
This, combined with the ADX gives us ideas of true trend strength and ability.
For now. DI+ has turned to Drop and reflects the action recently But the DI - has yet to turn higher to meet it, indicating a possibility that Real Negative orice action may not occur just yet.
But we need to watch this closely.
So, in summery, for me, We are Still getting ready to move higher, we may well range for a while before hand and a December ATH, while possible, is not the best thing to hope for.
The final ATH of the cycle could be in September or around there, after an early Sopring push to a new high
And it is important to understand, things can change very quickly in Bitcoin and we need to be ready ALWAYS so I am offering ideas only..
Stay safe and may your God, Gods, Godess or Godesses forever Keep your socks Dry
