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BITCOIN What to look for on the emerging 1D Death CrossYesterday update was on the short-term, as the opportunity inside the Channel Down on the 1H time-frame was too good to ignore: Right now though my focus shifts again on the longer-term dynamics as the Death Cross, an important MA formation, enters the center stage. A Death Cross (when the MA50 crosses below the MA200) is approaching on the 1D time-frame. By definition it is technically a bearish formation as the short-term MA (50) crosses below the long-term MA (200) confirming a trend change from (previously) bullish to (currently) bearish. ** Death Cross on every Bear Cycle ** As you see on the charts above, this has been a distinct characteristic of all of the previous Bear Cycles (2018, 2014, 2011). Even the mini correction during 2019. The only time a 1D Death Cross didn't deliver a Lower Low was in March 2020 on a once in a 100 years event: BTC crashed along with global stock markets as countries declared emergency ahead of the COVID pandemic. However the trillion USD rescue packages managed to reverse the sentiment and lift BTC instantly. ** Death Cross misses ** There have been a few near misses where the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) reversed right before it touched the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). That was in October 2020, September 2016, August 2013 and April 2011. The peculiarity of those Death Cross misses, was that the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (from the lowest point before the pending cross) was recovered (exception 2016 where the 0.618 was failed to be recover by a very low margin $646 against a $633 high). ** In need of an unrealistic (?) rally ** Currently the 0.618 Fibonacci rectracement level is at $48000 and it appears that even that won't be enough to make BTC avoid the upcoming 1D Death Cross as it would need a monthly closing (June) above $54000 (and of course the same goes for July, August onwards) to marginally avoid it. There are 21 days left on June so that would require an average daily rise of more than $850. Under the current news set-up this seems unrealistic, even though Bitcoin did rise from $3200 to $58300 in 20 days (from February 01, 2021 to February 21, 2021). So since the current 1D Death Cross seems unavoidable, history suggests that a Lower Low is comming either in the greater framework of a Bear Cycle (2018, 2014, 2011) or the mini Bear of 2019. If not, then some really earth shattering postivie news should emerge in order to deliver a March 2020 like recovery after the 1D Death Cross. Are the El Salvador or ETF approval news enough? What do you think? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> crypto-strong --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
54
BITCOIN about to form a 4H MA50/100 Bullish Cross. The big technical development of this week should be the emerging MA50/ MA100 Bullish Cross on the 4H time-frame (the 1st in more than 1 month). Such crosses are typically formations that precede a strong move on Bitcoin and since it has been trading within a Triangle (Lower Highs and Higher Lows) since the May 19 bottom, it is very likely that this formation will break the pattern. But which way will it break to? To put this into a better context, I have applied the Pitchfork tool starting from the 65k High. As you see all of its downside levels have been hit (exception the 2.0 level) both as Supports and Resistances. The levels that haven't been tested to the upside are 1.0 and 1.5 (naturally 2.0 too but that is pending on the lower levels too). Right now the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) sits on the 1.0 level. Is this a sign that the 4H MA50/100 Bullish Cross will force the price to the upside and attempt contact with the 4H MA200? Or we'll continue south and test the lower extensions again (1.0 and 1.5)? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> CryptoSurfer007 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
94
BITCOIN The alts dominance shows this may not be the top for BTCOn this study I am crossing Bitcoin with the Dominance of the Alt Coins as it shows something that may interest you. This past month there is only one question in crypto investors' minds: has Bitcoin already made a top for the current Cycle? The regression of BTC agains the Alts shows that the pattern they are printing now is similar to July 10, 2017. During that time, BTC dropped -40% along, while the Alts that were having their 2nd Parabolic Phase dropped even more dramatically. While BTC recovered almost instantly, the drop formed a Support for the Alts Dominance that attracted the price up until BTC's new Cycle Top. As you see on the chart, the Alts have had two bullish phases within the greater Bull Cycle and the duration from the 1st High to the 2nd was a little over 300 days. On the current Cycle that time range is a little below 300 days. I know that, as most say lately, "this time is different" but that if it is not and this comparison shows the way? What do you think, does this study accurately depicts the place on the trend that BTC is currently at or the Top is already in? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> CryptoSurfer007 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
50
January 10th 2022 Cycle Top 150-190kI was going to wait till after today to publish this but what I found cannot wait. If today's May 31st Fib Time zone confirms then we can go ahead and look at the next fib date in line which is January 10th 2022 and what I just realized is for the first time I get an overlap of Fib time dates. First Fib Time Zones dates (Orange lines ) So the First Fib time zone date is one on a macro scale of bitcoin starting November 2011 , I picked this start point because it's the start of the Genesis line(ibb.co) and the bottom of the log growth. The second point would be the top of 2013 cycle , once we place these two points we get the rest of the dates : 0 - 14th November 2011 1 - 25th November 2013 2 - 07th December 2015 3 - 18th December 2017 5 - 10th January 2022 So you can see that Fib Date 2 and 3 were pretty important , not so much 2 but date 3 called the top of the 2017 run. Second Fib Time dates (White Lines) These Fib time zone dates are on a micro scale. I have posted about these Fib Time zone dates for weeks in previous TAs which I link down below. If we do see a shift in momentum today then these Fib time zone dates are valid and the next shift in momentum would be January 10th 2022! So what we have is a overlap, a overlap of a micro and macro scale this is something that I have never come across , these are the Fib time zone dates : 0 - 09 March 2020 (Covid crash) 1 - 19 October 2021 2 - 31 May 2021 3 - 10 January 2022 First point would be the bottom of the covid crash and second point would be 19th October 2021 , I picked this date because there was a massive momentum shift that date , I believe the parabolic run started on this date. The Top So if we hit the top of the log growth band on that date bitcoin would be 150k if we overshoot to the Genesis line (Red Line) that would put Bitcoin at 190k. I have gone over the idea that Bitcoin will not break this line and it will act as resistance like it did in June 2019 at 14k. Bitcoin will most likely overshoot this low growth band like it did the last two tops , how much will it overshoot I don't know but the genesis line comes in at 190k, So a possible scenario would be that bitcoin tops at around 170k and closes that week at 150k. I will include below under related ideas all TAs that are linked with this conclusion. There is no other way I can put it. This is the top. Who’s Shorting? :)
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Sporia
1
BITCOIN Is this a Bear Cycle or just a mid-Bull correction?That is the question on everyone's mind right now following Bitcoin's -50% crash from April's $65000 top. To get a better understanding I've used the 1D time-frame, comparing the current sequence to the 2019 and 2013 mid-Bull corrections and the Bear Cycles of 2018, 2014 and 2011. * The common characteristic on mid-Bull corrections is that the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) was hit after a 1D MA50/MA100 Bearish Cross got formed. * On the other hand, with the exception of 2013, when Bull Cycles ended, the 1D MA200 was hit before a 1D MA50/MA100 Bearish Cross. * The initial bottom (red arrow) on all was made on the symmetrical low of the last pull-back before the top (red zones on all charts). * Following the initial bottom and after the 1D MA200 broke, all fractals hit at least the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on the first rebound. Do you think the current sequence has more in common with Bear Cycles or mid-Bull corrections? Will we see a rebound to the 1D MA50 either way? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! p.s. As far as the 2019 mid-Bull correction is concerned, I don't count the March 2020 crash as a continuation to the bottom due to that being an extraordinary fundamental event (pandemics happen once every 100 years). Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> CryptoSurfer007 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
68
Bitcoin : Head & Shoulders In PlayHello traders, hope you all doing well in this unreliable market. The game is getting harder to predict, play safe and follow your plan. So as you can see we are forming an H&S pattern in a shorter time frame, it's a bearish pattern. We are currently below the H&S neckline and that's not a good indication for at least short-term price movement. If we see a retest of neckline and price fall exactly from that, in that case, it will be confirmation of pattern in action. However, if we see the closing above the neckline, it will invalid H&S. hope you like this quick update and do follow for more:)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by meshbtc
2
BITCOIN formed an Inverse H&S. Is this a reversal sign?Even though the title focuses on the Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern that has been formed, I will make this a multi time-frame analysis as there are various important developments we need to look into and consider for Bitcoin's trend. ** Inverse Head & Shoulders on 4H ** The main chart is on the 4H time-frame where the Inverse Head & Shoulders (IH&S) is most clear. This formation is typically a bullish reversal pattern, the opposite of a Head & Shoulders. In doing so, the price broke above the 2-week Lower Highs zone (red) as well as the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which is currently being tested as a Support. ** Golden Cross on 1H ** Can the Right Shoulder break and push the price upwards? A thorough examination on the 1H time-frame (see chart below) shows that BTC just formed a Golden Cross (1H MA50 (blue trend-line) crossing above the 1H MA200 (orange trend-line)). This is technically a bullish sign and as you can see the last three 1H Golden Crosses all delivered a Higher High. ** Double Bottom on 1D but MA200 resisting ** The 1D time-frame gives a long-term picture (see chart below). If last week's formation is a Double Bottom, it gives more value to the fact that the 1W MA50 (yellow trend-line) held and continues to support. At the same time though the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) continues to exercise Resistance pressure as BTCUSD hasn't closed a 1D candle above it for 6 straight days. However, the RSI is on Higher Highs (Bullish Divergence) an indicator that probably the selling pressure is getting weaker, while the LMACD prepares a Bullish Cross. What do you think will happen next? Will the 1H Golden Cross break the IH&S upwards or will the Double Bottom break and test the critical 1W MA50 level? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> TradingView --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
56
May 31st Decision Time (BITCOIN)We are coming up to the most important week of the bullrun for bitcoin , do we hold the 0.618 (fib Fan) Losing this fib level would change all Macro projections for this bullrun. May 31st is the day that could see a shift in momentum. May 31st is a Monday, I expect a big move to start happening early hours of Monday before the trading day even starts for most. If these Fib time zones turn out to be accurate pivot points in bitcoin the next one would be January 10th 2022, the top of the Fib Band on this date will be 280k bitcoin which lines up with Plans B price prediction of 280k. cointelegraph.com If we do break this fib level(0.618 Fan) and starting closing weekly candles under it, next targets would be about 25k and this would be the last line that bitcoin needs to hold to keep this bull run going, a break of 0.75 Fib Fan would confirm that we are going into some kind of a small bear market.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sporia
1
Bitcoin heading for 42K zone. Will we see a breakout ?Finally #bitcoin is back in action. It is constantly moving up at an impressive pace. Going by the chart, I have marked two zones for BTC. As long as it stays within the Green zone, it will stay bullish. However if it enters the Red zone, then it will turn bearish. Hopefully today we will get to see where BTC is heading. If you like my analysis then do drop a LIKE and a COMMENT. Also do SHARE it with your friends. Also don't forget to smash that FOLLOW button to get daily analysis of multiple crypto currencies and sometime ASX stocks. Note - These are my personal notes and in no way a financial advice. Do your own research and Trade wisely
by Manjyot