BITCOIN still trading very similarly to 2016. Still missing out?We have published quite a handful of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) analyses that compare in detail the current Cycle with that of 2014 - 2017. A representative sample of such study is the one below that we made on July 31:
People were still in denial that BTC would extend the recover that started after the FTX crash but we analyzed in detail why we thought that was the case. As you can see the classification in phases helped a lot and turned out to be very accurate at least so far.
** Pre Halving caution? **
So what now? The price has come very close to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which on the week of June 13 2016 cause a strong rejection which in the next 7 weeks extended as low as the 0.5 Fib and the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
** Are we accelerating on this Cycle? **
However that was after that Cycle's Halving (no 2, week of July 04 2016) and at the moment we are roughly 18 weeks (126 days) before (the next) Halving 4. If the recent phase has been indeed accelerated by the ETF speculation, then we have already entered the last period before the true parabolic rally of the Bull Cycle, what you can see on the chart as the '0.786 to ATH' range, which was 37 weeks (259 days) from the 0.786 Fib High (June 13 2016) to the 1W candle that made a new All Time High (ATH) on February 27 2017. According to that model, we can expect prices above 65000 by August 19 2024 (notice that even the ATH is on Nov 08 2021, the Fibs were taken from the April 12 2021 High, the true Cycle Top based on the 1W RSI).
** The underlying RSI trend-line **
Speaking of the 1W RSI, on top of the previous, very accurate pattern, I have identified an underlying trend-line (dashed) which shows that after it made a fake-out break above it, the RSI pulled-back on the recent lows Support, where the price's 0.5 Fib and 1W M50 cluster was. You can use that as an additional indicator to accumulate more BTC before the ATH gets tested.
So what do you think? Will Bitcoin pull back that much before the Halving and the eventual ATH test or you think we are going straight to +65k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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