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Bitcoin factor indicator accuracy is 83% BITSTAMP:BTCUSD The Bitcoin is entirely speculation? Fundamentals support the price of it? The Bitcoin is not entirely speculation, it is the price of the fundamentals. The Bitcoin factor indicator is calculated by Bitcoin fundamental factor, it can reflect how much of the Bitcoin price is supported by the fundamentals. The green line is the Bitcoin factor in the chart, the trend of it are in conformity with the price, the orange line is the yearly correlation coefficient between the Bitcoin price and the Bitcoin factor, most of the time in the vicinity of 0.8, shows that the Bitcoin prices are mostly by the Bitcoin factor influence. Yellow line is Bitcoin forecast price, the Bitcoin factor, and the linear regression method are used to calculate. You can see, the prices fluctuating around the predicted price, it is in line with the principle of price fluctuates around value. The purple line is determination coefficients (R2) of 10 years logarithmic Bitcoin predicted price, which represents the prediction accuracy, the value of 83% in November 2, 2021. The blue line is warning index, which swings between -1 to 2, red background when early warning index greater than 1.4, the price in the peak, said green background when early warning index is less than -0.4, the price in the trough. On November 2, 2021, the early warning index of 1.73, in the red background area, shows that the Bitcoin price at peak, please pay attention to risk.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by lilibtc
3
7 yearly total return 101, max drawdown 35%BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Can't you invest Bitcoin for it's price fluctuations too big ? I backtest the Bitcoin long-term strategy using historical data in 7 years, total return is 101, maximum drawdown is 35%, annualized sharpe ratio is 1.99. In the chart above, the yellow line is the net value of account, $10000 in the January 1, 2015, to 1.02 million dollars in November 3, 2021. I backtest from 2015 because before 2015 the Bitcoin price fluctuations is much more than it after 2015, the Bitcoin price fluctuations decrease year by year, it is unlikely to have so big fluctuations in the future. The red line is the total return, its value in November 3, 2021 is 101 . The green line is the sharpe ratio, its value in November 3, 2021 is 1.97. Blue line is the factor indicator, I start to buy when it is less than -0.33, and open positions for 10 days. I start to sell when it is greater than 0.4 , and close positions for 10 days. My last article "Accuracy of the Bitcoin factor indicator for 10 years is 83%" was introduced in detail. In the November 3, 2021 it has a value of 1.76, it is the maximum during the period of the backtest. Please pay attention to the risk. Olive green line is annual return, its value in November 3, 2021 is 97%. Yellow line is the proportion of positions, a maximum of 1, minimum value is 0, this strategy doesn't use leverage. Purple line is the ratio of the maximum drawdown, the background is red when maximum drawdown ratio is greater than 30%, in the July 16, 2017 it's value is 35%. In strategy tester overview, the number of transactions is 62, winning percentage is 100%, the average rate of return for trading is 163%, the average holding time was 426 days. This strategy is suitable for ordinary investors, is a weapon to realize the freedom of wealth. Are you a registered TradingView user? If you are not, please register .You and me all get up to $30 each after you upgrade to a paid plan.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by lilibtc
New Bitcoin factor indicator accuracy is 92%BITSTAMP:BTCUSD How much the Bitcoin fundamentals can explain the price of the Bitcoin ? My latest research shows that the new Bitcoin factor can explain 92% of the the logarithm of Bitcoin price. The Bitcoin factor indicator is calculated by Bitcoin fundamental factor, it can reflect how much of the Bitcoin price is supported by the fundamentals. The green line is the Bitcoin factor in the chart, the trend of it are in conformity with the price, the orange line is the correlation coefficient between the Bitcoin price and the Bitcoin factor in the 10 years, its value in November 5, 2021 is 0.95, shows that the Bitcoin prices are mostly by the Bitcoin factor influence. Yellow line is Bitcoin forecast price, the Bitcoin factor, and the linear regression method are used to calculate. You can see, the prices fluctuating around the predicted price, it is in line with the principle of price fluctuates around value. The purple line is determination coefficients (R2) of 10 years logarithmic Bitcoin predicted price, which represents the prediction accuracy, the value of 92% on November 5, 2021. The blue line is factor indicator, which swings between -1 to 2, red background when early warning index greater than 1, the price in the peak, said green background when factor indicator is less than -0.6, the price in the trough. On November 5, 2021, the factor indicator of 0.82, is near of 1, shows that the Bitcoin price is near of the peak, please pay attention to risk. Are you a registered TradingView user? If you are not, please register .You and me all get up to $30 each after you upgrade to a paid plan.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by lilibtc
6
10 years total return 23K, max drawdown 41%BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Can't you invest Bitcoin for it's price fluctuations too big ? I backtest the Bitcoin long-term strategy using historical data in 10 years and new Bitcoin factor indicator, total return is 23K, maximum drawdown is 41%, annualized sharpe ratio is 3.27. In the chart above, the yellow line is the net value of account, $10000 on October 1, 2011, to 230 million dollars on November 8, 2021. The red line is the total return, its value on November 8, 2021 is 23269. The green line is the sharpe ratio, its value on November 8, 2021 is 3.27. Blue line is the factor indicator, I start to buy when it is less than -0.8, and open positions for 5 days. I start to sell when it is greater than 1 , and close positions for 5 days. My last article "Accuracy of the new Bitcoin factor indicator for 10 years is 92%" was introduced in detail. On November 8, 2021 it has a value of 0.84, it is near to 1.Please pay attention to the risk. Olive green line is annual return, its value on November 8, 2021 is 1.7. Yellow line is the proportion of positions, a maximum of 1, minimum value is 0, this strategy doesn't use leverage. Purple line is the ratio of the maximum drawdown, the background is red when maximum drawdown ratio is greater than 40%, on Febrebry 18, 2012 it's value is 41%. The maximum drawdown ratio is decreasing year by year, it' max value in 2021 is 25% on January 27, 2021. In strategy tester overview, the number of transactions is 31, winning percentage is 100%, the average rate of return for trading is 750, the average holding time was 599 days. This strategy is suitable for ordinary investors, is a weapon to realize the freedom of wealth.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by lilibtc
8
BTC Bull & Bear historical Periods 3 Bull & Bear Markets Bull markets took around 152 weeks... then V v v v v Bear Markets took around 52-59 weeks.. then v v v v v v v Bull Market gain... ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- After 2021 ATH BTC recorded his current bottom after 52 weeks ( 15500 $). BTC pumped after 59 weeks . then what ? Will the history will repeat itself again ?? if we will be alive inshallah ,we will see the next 152 weeks to ( October - November 2025 ) if this will be the New ATH of the next bull market or not :D It is not a financial advice , PLZ DYOR
INDEX:BTCUSD
by KarimMohsen
1
BTC Chart is a Masterpiece !! 39500 - 41800 is our targets nowHello Guys As u See on the BTC chart we had many beautiful patterns which were very accuracy by its targets up & down . last Pattern which its number is 4 had done its target exactly at 17500$ as u see (yellow rectangles). Now we are in Pattern Number 5 (Red Rectangles) which its Target after rocking 28800 are 39500- 41850 $ . Note : we should break the 28800 resistance to reach our targets our we can go first to the bottom of the falling wedge. Watch it and Decide Good Luck It is not a financial advice and plz DYOR
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by KarimMohsen
1
BTCUSD and the new wave to 30Kthe king of crypto will start the wave up soon and the target as its in the chart 30K i think BTCUSD finish the down move before the end if this year and even if there is more down will not be lower this 11 to 13K the buy started since the JUN ,the blue area is the end as i expect And that makes me think of two possibilities : The first that we have finished the bearish wave in June The second we are on the verge of the end and we will achieve 22000 and then return to point B the start the up move please let me know what you think about it
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by zoneofbasem
9
BTC Bottom & New ATH..... when ?!!! Hello Guys There are some notes of BTC weekly Chart: 1. We have a new ATH every 4 years ( 1428-1477 ) days.. 2. After the ATH we take about ( 52-59 ) weeks to make a new bottom then we go up a little ... 3. Every time we reach a new ATH we drop down in a same angle (-55) before the new bull run starting .... look at my chart ( Red angles and curves ): ****** We dropped from ATH 2013 to Bottom 2015 by an angle ( -55 ) . ****** We dropped from ATH 2017 to Bottom 2018 by an angle ( -55 ) . ****** Same (24 July 2019) we dropped from local top to the local bottom by Angle ( -56 ) . ****** Will we drop from ATH 2021 to Bottom (2022 - 2023) by the same angle ( -55 or -56 )?? 4. In my opinion , I expect we will reach the final bottom between ( 26 December 2022 : 6 march 2023 ). 5. I don't care what will be the price of BTC then , but I care only for when will be the possible bottom !!. But if we can try to expect the price it will be in a range of ( 11900 : 9000$) ... Note:( 10K - 10500$) is very very strong demand area for BTC . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Finally , I think the new ATH will not be before Nov 2025 ( 150k $ ). It is not a financial advice , I am only share my thoughts with u :) Thank u and good luck.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by KarimMohsen
8
Bitcoin on the rise. Where to sell?Hi everyone. Last 3 weeks we've seen incredible strength from bulls. There are no doubts that bulls are in control. There were not any signeficent pullbacks during this pump. Many traders stayed on the sideline waiting for 10k. However, it looks like everyone already forgot that BTC printed for the first time ever a Yearly bearish engulfing candle. On crypto twitter you can see many analysts saying that Bitcoin has started a new Bull Market and it will go over 100k . We believe that in the next few days Bitcoin will not give a chance to jump on the train for those that didn't buy at lower prices, but as we had a Yearly Bearish engulfing candle for the first time ever, it's doubtful that it will be left without any impact on the market. It's probable that reaching new ATH will take way longer than everyone thinks. There's a strong resistance around 28600$ - 30000$. Moreover, the SuperGuppy indicator most likely will curve to the upside in the next few weeks and the upper lines of the SuperGuppy will be around 29k-30k which corrresponds with the price resistance therefore this is where we see a potential exit point for bulls and entry for bears. What do you think? Do you agree? Feel free to share your opinion in the comment section.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by vf_investment
22