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Brexit

USDCAD: Break Hook and Go after NFP!Couldn't resist not analyzing this setup! Here it is for educational purposes. Never chase a breakout - Wait for pullbacks to get a more attractive reward-to-risk for your setup. The trade went like this: 1. CAD labor market numbers strong vs USD labor market numbers weak (13:30 London time) 2. Breakdown on strong selling volume 3. Pullback to important 1.2850 level 4. Liquidity returns on high-volume weak bullish candle (chance for institutional traders to buy CAD at discount price, i.e. short USDCAD . They drain liquidity until the price reaches the 50%-61.8% zone. Yes, it's manipulation.) 5. Now we have a classic "break hook and go" setup with a profit target at the 1.272 Fib extension (reward-to-risk 9:1 if aggressive) Great trade to close the week!
by MujkanovicFX
GBP/USD: Trading Brexit (FIST Analysis)Happy Friday traders! Time to make an update on GBP/USD. Here is a FIST (Fundamental, Intermarket, Sentiment, Technical) analysis of the pair ahead of the NFP and potential trade deal. FUNDAMENTALS Services and Manufacturing PMIs in the UK came in better than expected, but the main market theme is still whether the UK and the EU will reach a trade deal over the weekend. Some reports show a deal is "imminent", but France is still playing hard on the fisheries front, demanding access to UK fishery waters. Btw, fishery accounts for a fraction of a percent in UK's GDP. In the US, we are waiting for NFP numbers. ADP numbers came in weaker, while unemployment claims came in better. NB: Goldman Sachs expects a number around 450k (are they looking for selling pressure from dumb money to get into USD longs? We will see) CLUES FROM INTERMARKETS 2-year yield differentials point at a lower GBP/USD. Higher demand for UK bonds pushes UK interest rates lower, signaling flight to safety ahead of the trade deal deadline. WHAT DOES MARKET SENTIMENT SAY? Fast money (hedge funds) increased short positions in the GBP for the fourth week in a row. However, there is still room to the upside until we see a 52w extreme positioning. This means that there is still room to the downside for the GBP, but also to the upside (short squeeze). TECHNICALS As expected, the pair remains range-bound and trades around the point of control, signaling fair value at the moment. In case of a deal, I see 1.36 as the first profit target (bull flag target, 1.00 Fib extension), followed by the upper 1.36xx levels (1.272 Fib extension). A no deal scenario should at least see the lower 1.31xx levels, where we have a major liqudity zone and where large buyers could join the market again. == SUMMARY == I don't trade on Friday, and I don't trade if there are event risks. Trading a deal/no-deal scenario is gambling. Instead, wait for the outcome, let the market pick a direction, and look for pullbacks to get into the position. Please hit the "LIKE" button if you find this post useful. Also, don't forget to follow to get more trade ideas like this. Thanks!
by MujkanovicFX
2
EUR/GBP: Trading Brexit 📈Hello traders, happy Wednesday! Time to make some money. Today's Trade of the Day is EUR/GBP. With Brexit pessimism rising, I expect further weakness in the pound during the week. Here is the complete analysis. TECHNICALS: The pair broke above a long-term falling channel, but big players will likely drain liquidity to get into the market at more favorable prices. A roll reversal to the lower 0.90xx levels could provide a buying opportunity. POSITIONING: Hedge funds increased their bearish bets slightly in the previous week, but there is still room to the upside until we reach a 52-week extreme positioning. Currently 40k contracts shorts, extreme positioning at 60k. More downside potential for the pound. INTEREST RATES: 2-year yield differentials have still to catch up with the recent rise in the exchange rate. FUNDAMENTALS: EU’s chief negotiator Barnier says next 36 hours will be critical to fate of negotiations with UK. == SUMMARY == BUY LIMIT @ 0.9020 Final Take-Profit @ 0.9135 SL @ 0.8980 R/R: 3:1 Please hit the "LIKE" button if you find this post useful. Also, don't forget to follow to get more trade ideas like this. Thanks!
Long
by MujkanovicFX
ridethepig | EURGBP grinding higherBarnier comments on 'no deal is still possible' well illustrating the strategic skill of negotiation. UK has sadly been completely outplayed, not by any fault other than some simple Etonians sticking about fisheries which is 0.02% of GDP...Hard to understand how we ended up here, most £500m private companies would never dream of hiring Johnson as CEO or Sunak as CFO...Brexit was always political fairy-dust, a last despairing effort to continue the 'empire' which was immediately countered via the powerful Klaus Schwab at WEF and etc. 📍 The lows are now protected and in good shape. Of course, you are right to think the threat is for them to sweep the lows, just like how buyers played the interesting line of sweeping the highs in GBPUSD before crashing: I love it when a story comes together. The next leg here is higher for EURGBP, London is vacating its seat at the table (in the short-term at least) and sharp speculators are well aware. Much better to look for a test of the highs here, as we shall see, an important few weeks. I completely understand why some voted for Brexit, unfortunately in such a scenario there is always the question: which carries more weight globally, the UK or the EU? Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | Chart of the Week📌 ridethepig | Chart of the Week This illustrates the struggle of the retrace. Motto: first map, then position, and finally destroy. Those that remember the infamous chart from Johnson elections will remember we are back to square one, another year has passed with the direction focused on a necessary component of 'how to make the country less worse off'. This direction alone does restrain the freeing advance, more thoroughly than any other set-up. Bravo! Sellers were not afraid of the 1.35 highs before, because strong play in negotiations or not it could never bring down the outflows from Brexit; and with Trump winning in doubt it is restraining the pressure of Johnson to drive back to the EU side. A breakdown is there for the taking. Good luck all those attempting to play it.
Short
by ridethepig
4
GBPJPY Setup IdeaWith just one month left to reach a deal protecting ~$1 trillion worth of trade between the EU and UK, this will probably be a critical week for Brexit negotiations. UK and EU haven´t reached an agreement over the Fishing Rights and Competition (EU loves its single market so it wants UK to play by the same rules). The fact that an agreement on such an important matter haven´t been reached might encourage speculation regarding the Sterling Pound and provoke a slight slip in the price of the Pound against other assets.
by joseafab
GBPNZD parallel channel has been breached The pair has broken out of a parallel channel from 2017 and is expected to retrace to test the lower channel before heading lower. The CFTC COT WEEKLY DATA shows that the Kiwi 🥝 Dollar has been getting stronger and stronger bouyed by the swift and effective response by the government on Covid19. Last week's fundamental data from New Zealand has been bullish and the country's currency is expected to beat expectations. The Pound on the other hand is facing headwinds as the Brexit deadline approaching. A No - Deal remains a high possibility with EU 🇪🇺 countries preparing for the exact situation. Personally, I remain bearish on all GBP pairs with the exception of GBPUSD.
Short
by GrizzlyBearBee
ridethepig | FTSE Fundamental FlowsHere we are more or less back to square one as to where we were in July and testing away at the resistance. Buyers are showing a lack of tenacity! If after the Brexit fact (does not really matter if its a deal or hard brexit deal) we can see the possible outflow pressure really start to make itself felt. The strong counter here should immediately come under pressure with the initial loss of market access and broader global slowdown. Once again (and with slow and steady pace) start to build some sell side exposure, abandon the overweight UK equities position and employ the following manoeuvres. A test of the centre looks rolled up and ready to take. Make excellent use of the flow towards 5,600. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
OANDA:UK100GBPShort
by ridethepig
1