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GBPJPY Sell Signal: 300 Pip OpportunityGBPJPY in a triangle formation on the daily and we are expecting a breakout soon. With Brexit I expect GBP weakness long-term so my bias is on the downside. In addition the trend is still downwards on the larger timeframe (weekly). Look to enter at current price of 139.40 and at the top of the channel. Stop Loss 30 pips above channel. Take Profit at bottom of channel near 137.50 Good luck and let me know if I can help in any way. Charles V CVFX Management
Short
by cvfxwealth
GBPNZD Update: Broken channel still holdsSince my last update, the pair has generally moved in a range. This may imply that the Cable is not strong enough to break above the trend line or the NZD isn't strong following the bullish momentum it has had in the past few weeks. The CFTC COT Weekly reports show that the NZD net long positioning has been steadily rising since October while net short positions for GBP remain high at - 7.8k. NZD CFTC COT Net positioning GBP CFTC COT Net positioning With Brexit weighing heavily on the Pound, the pair could lose a further 300+ pips in the coming weeks.
Short
by GrizzlyBearBee
FX Update: Brexit crunch time & last hurdles for USD bears?Summary: Strong risk sentiment continues and a fresh surge in industrial metals has helped AUDUSD to new highs. But our focus should be squarely on sterling today and in coming days as Brexit crunch time has arrived and disaster insurance buying has picked up on the latest uncertainty. Elsewhere, we look at the last remaining hurdles for USD bears heading into year-end. Today’s FX Trading focus: Brexit crunch time is here UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to meet with EU commission head Ursula Von Der Leyen this evening for dinner in Brussels in an effort to move forward the stuck Brexit negotiations. The critical outstanding issue is the “level playing field” or “state aid” issue. While we have assumed all along that some sort of a deal would inevitably be hashed out between the two side, even if it was a rather thin deal that disguises the need for ongoing negotiations on particulars based on a loose framework of principles. But the latest turn in negotiations has raised the fear of a proper stand-off that brings with it a cliff-edge risk into year end. I still suspect some sort of fudge, or at worst, delay is more likely than a cliff edge, but we should all respect the uncertainty of the situation. The market is certainly respecting the uncertainty more than is shown in the choppy action in the spot GBP exchange rates, as GBPUSD 1-month implied volatility has pulled higher toward 13% and the 10-delta options are 5.5% more expensive for puts than calls – getting close to where they were during the pandemic meltdown, for perspective. As soon as in the wake of this evening’s meeting between Johnson and Von Der Leyen we should have a headline indicating the latest temperature of the situation and whether we are moving in the “right” direction or toward a nail-biting stand-off. Elsewhere – USD weak but requires extension of speculative froth for more downside As we pointed out in this morning’s Saxo Market Call podcast, some measures of risk sentiment are nearing remarkable extremes, after November was the most positive month in global market history. Many have pointed out that the very strongest runs of risk appetite often yield to even more upside statistically, so far be it from us to call the end to this remarkable run for global markets, but the USD lower argument seems entirely bound up in soaring risk sentiment and it may be a reflexive trade. On that note, perhaps only three readily identifiable risk events can spoil the party ahead of the end of the year. The first would be any lack of a stimulus deal – and that situation has gotten more than a bit chaotic with the White House now weighing in and proposing checks for everyone rather than the unemployment benefit extension proposal, but it does appear the sides are working toward a deal and I don’t rate the danger level high on this one. The second would be the FOMC meeting next Wednesday and whether the Fed is somehow set to either deliver less than the market is expecting and very gently press back against the speculative exuberance. I don’t think they dare do the latter, though they might under-deliver in terms of a forward commitment to easing and here I rate the danger level at medium to unknown in terms of whether the market really fears that the Fed will deliver in a pinch anyway. Finally, and this is where the danger level is highest, we have the US yield curve and whether yields finally blow out higher, starting with a move above 1.00% in the US 10-year benchmark. Yesterday’s 3-year Treasury auction was weak and we have 10-year and 30-year auctions up today and tomorrow, respectively. After the end of the year, the Georgia Senate runoffs are an additional wildcard on January 5 – more on that later. Chart: AUDUSD AUDUSD is enjoying a fresh surge as risk appetite remains robust and industrial metals have been on quite a ride higher in recent sessions, particularly the Aussie- important iron ore. AUDUSD is now well free of the 0.74000 area, with no real notable resistance until the 0.80-0.8100 zone that capped the action back in early 2018. The G-10 rundown USD – the flipside of the global surge in risk assets. EUR – the euro may be held back a bit by its negative yielding status and the wait for stimulus as well as the ECB set to deliver new easing tomorrow, but don’t see the latter as a major event risk with so much already priced in. JPY – the yen more or less tracking the USD in the crosses here and likely to continue to do so unless risk sentiment sours badly, which would be JPY supportive unless the source of angst is rising US yields, in which case you have confusing crossfire. GBP – very short term calls are one way to position for a breakthrough in the Brexit logjam – plenty of binary risk at any point starting from any statements made after this evening’s Brexit dinner in Brussels. CHF – Is EURCHF fearing a more aggressive ECB? Doubt that the latter is much of a catalyst here and suspect that global bond yields are more important, with rising yields potentially pushing back against CHF strength. AUD – the go-to currency if the current environment extends, especially metals prices. CAD – Bank of Canada meeting later today – not expecting anything there. CAD could be set for a run for 1.2500 quickly on another surge higher in crude oil prices together with a strong run in risk assets into year end – the caveats are listed in the USD commentary above. NZD – the kiwi at risk of relative weakness in the crosses if commodities continue to grab the headlines – thinking especially of AUDNZD here, where another surge toward 1.0600 would begin to disrupt the late downtrend. SEK – the krona has taken a turn for the worse in not responding to what normally have been supportive conditions – seasonal pension flows might be a driver and we like fading SEK weakness against the euro eventually, with the caveat that 10.30 falling in EURSEK could see a bit more of a squeeze. NOK – a real breakdown in EURNOK below 10.50 may require a new leg higher in Brent above 50 dollars/ barrel. 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by Saxo
1
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 09.12.2020📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Commentary GBPUSD This linkage between the retracement and the impulsive wave is classical, believed only in absolute directional moves; ....sellers of UK assets are a forced to be reckoned with and such a move in 80 cases out of 100 will be considered worth playing. I am dropping the figure from 1.350x to 1.345x because I expect sellers to aggressively defend the resistance move. The strength of the USD should in no way be underestimated. And suddenly we are reaching the nucleus of the retracement. Clarification of the manoeuvre.... The majority are thinking that a dinner for two tonight between Johnson and VDL will consist of progress, instead I think the can will be once again kicked and create some kind of diversion. At the same time, we are going to use technicals here to show the nucleus. I shall choose a typical ABC retracement as an example of the flows to link and fade. In this case 1.345x is being blocked from the previous orderblock which we traded live: The threat of another leg lower interrupting all lines of communication between GBP buyers on one hand and risk on the other. Therefore we should track the necessity of trapping out opponent on the highs. If you know the thoughts of your opponent, it is easy to assimilate the concept of a counter attack; a flank which will hammer the currency in a naturally speculative way. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
33
GBPCAD, 4hr tf, sell Wave-3 extension waveHello my friends, Another plan for GBP crosses pairs. We got GBPCAD to trade as well for today. But i am still waiting for price to touch around 1.7200 before entering sell. I use a sell limit order for this pair because it might hit my trade when i was not watching it. As you can see this pair is bearish in my opinion. GBP is very fragile right now because there is fundamental Brexit issues. If we do an Elliott Wave count we could assume that we're now on Wave-3 extension. Inside this extension there is a good setup to trade as well. Wave-3 is not finished yet because we still got wave-iv and wave-v to complete this Wave-3. Wave-iv is on the process and might completed soon. We are going to use wave-i area as our stop loss because we're trying to use Elliott Wave rule for 4th Wave. Sell limit GBPCAD 1.7195 Stop loss 1.7255 Take profit 1.6925 (4.5R) RR ratio 1 : 4.5 Use only 1-2% risk Good luck Check my GBPAUD plan as well on the link provided below. If you find my post useful, give me a thumbs up and follow me for the next updates.
Short
by HayatoDragonFX
2
EUR/USD: A deep look using FIST analysis 📊Good morning traders, Our today's Trade of the Day has already reached on of the profit targets and is currently trading 100 pips in plus. Now, here's a FIST update on EUR/USD. FIST stands for Fundamental, Intermarket, Sentiment, and Technical analysis. Fundamental The weak dollar pushed the EUR/USD pair higher and caused a break below the important 1.20 level. This morning, the pair is giving back some gains on risk-off flows and on portfolio rebalancing ahead of the ECB meeting later this week. The ECB meeting on Thursday is the most important event for the EUR this week. The ECB is expected to provide further stimulus to the slowing economy of the eurozone by increasing its PEPP program by around $400-$600 billion and providing new long-term loans at very favorable rates. As inflation is slowing down, further stimulus that could increase inflationary pressures will likely be seen as positive for the euro. In the US, CPI numbers and unemployment claims are the main reports of the week. CPI and core CPI are expected to rise to 0.1% (prev. 0.0%). Unemployment claims are expected higher as well at 723K (prev. 712K). INTERMARKET The current difference between the 2y US and German yields signal the possibility of further weakness in EURUSD. However, it's important to note that the downtrend in yield differentials has mostly been the result of lower US yields. SENTIMENT Fast money has increased its bullish positioning the euro for the third consecutive week ahead of the ECB. Bullish bias has now reached the highest level since October 27, without extreme positioning, signaling further upside potential in the pair. TECHNICALS The technical picture looks bearish in the short-term, but I expect liquidity to enter the market again near the 1.2000 level, which is an important level for the pair. If volume confirms an entry, this is the first level to enter with a long position. The second level to watch is the 1.1860-1.1880 area, where the pair could also face buying pressure. Please hit the "LIKE" button if you find this post useful! Let me know your views on the pair in the comment section below.
Long
by MujkanovicFX
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 02.12.2020This point of view, relying on the soundness of the highs, which has been proved, will be vital to our success, because it is what we are leaning on and it is giving us a chance to pull the trigger in a somewhat cheap area in terms of risk. But the risk is as follows: if the only way to achieve liquidation is a sweep above mentioned highs, the possibility of running stops on a headline is still NOT zero. So what are the possibilities of our stops getting hit? It is not an easy one to answer. It depends on a closer look at the timing, it is always more important than price, the only reason GBP is not trading at 1.20 and 1.15 is namely the dollar devaluation and some more details around a deal which can still follow. I would like to anticipate that it was all too easy for UK to push through Pfizer and consider it an important advance on softening brexit headlines that are still to come. Allow appropriate room for the stops incase of that possible thrust, a single towards 1.285 and 1.20 is sufficient. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
3
GBP/USD: Bears regaining power at value area. What's next? 📉Hello traders. What a day for the pound! After a strong sell-off overnight which accelerated in the London session (our Trade of the Day closed with a great profit), the pound has now moved towards its previous value area (Point of Control) where the most trades exchanged hands overnight. Some reports suggest that the call between PM Johnson and Von der Leyen "don't go anywhere", yet bulls pushed the pound higher towards the end of the NY session. The main three obstacles remain to strike a deal: fisheries, level playing field, and governance. Also, Ireland Coveney said there is "no Brexit progress at all and last 2 days". INTERMARKET 2-year yield differentials haven't recovered like the exchange rate, signaling further downside pressure in the pair. The bearish divergence has been mostly the result of lower UK yields as investors turn to the bond market in times of market stress. So, 2-year differentials remain bearish for the pair. TRADE PLAN If Brexit concerns persist, the next profit target is around the 1.3140 area, where I expect a reaction from the market. The trade remains valid if the 1.3420 level holds to the upside. Please hit the "LIKE" button if you find this post useful. Also, don't forget to follow to get more trade ideas like this. Thanks!
Short
by MujkanovicFX
GBP/USD Bounced From Strong Resistance: Brexit UpdateGBP/USD didn't manage to beat the 1.35 resistance for a third time today, signaling a new downward movement in the coming days. Furthermore, it became apparent that the GB-EU Brexit talks are taking a turn for the worse, potentially even being cancelled altogether. This action would mean that a No-Deal Brexit is imminent and you should trade accordingly. My guess will be that the EU and GB will fail to find compromises and that no deal will be found, launching GBP and EUR into the abyss.
Short
by FieryTrading
1
GBP/AUD Head and Shoulders CompleteIn my most recent GBP/AUD post I made the prediction that there was a bearish Head and Shoulder pattern forming on the 4H chart. Today, the pattern finalized, signaling a new path downwards for the pair. Also, it became apparent that the GB-EU Brexit talks are taking a turn for the worse, potentially even being cancelled altogether. This action would mean that a No-Deal Brexit is imminent and you should trade accordingly. My guess will be that the EU and GB will fail to find compromises and that no deal will be found, launching GBP and EUR into the abyss.
Short
by FieryTrading
GBP/CHF No-Deal Brexit ScenarioEarly December GBP/CHF failed to beat the 1.22 resistance two times, which was already a short signal by itself. Today it became apparent that the GB-EU Brexit talks are taking a turn for the worse, potentially even being cancelled altogether. This action would mean that a No-Deal Brexit is imminent and you should trade accordingly. My guess will be that the EU and GB will fail to find compromises and that no deal will be found, launching GBP and EUR into the abyss.
Short
by FieryTrading
EUR/CHF Bearish - Brexit ScenarioEUR/CHF failed to pierce through the red area of resistance and is on its way back to earlier support levels. Today it became apparent that the GB-EU Brexit talks are taking a turn for the worse, potentially even being cancelled altogether. This action would mean that a No-Deal Brexit is imminent and you should trade accordingly. My guess will be that the EU and GB will fail to find compromises and that no deal will be found, launching GBP and EUR into the abyss.
Short
by FieryTrading
Trade of the Day: GBP/JPYHello traders, as reports show that a trade deal between the UK and the EU becomes increasingly unlikely, our trade of the day is a short in GBP/JPY. FUNDAMENTALS Trade deal weighs on the British pound and the JPY has been overall a good performer overnight on slight risk-off flows (Nikkei 225 down.) The pound was the worst performer as investors and traders reduce their exposure to the currency ahead of the trade deal deadline. I expect selling pressure on the pound to persist throughout the day. POSITIONING Leveraged funds (smart money) remain net sellers of the pound without extreme positioning, signaling further downside potential in the currency. TECHNICALS The GBP/JPY pair is breaking below a major trendline where I opened my first short position. A second short would be initiated at the liqudity zone marked in the chart, in case the pound decides to form a pullback. Profit target: Mid 137.xx RISKS FOR THE TRADE Positive trade deal headlines or a return of risk-on in the markets, which could lead to weakness in the JPY. Trade safe and please hit the "LIKE" button if you find our posts useful!
Short
by MujkanovicFX
MORNING MEETING (DEC 7th): Let's prepare for the trading day Good morning traders! It's December 7th, 2020. Let's prepare for the upcoming trading day with some important market updates. PREVIOUS TRADE OF THE DAY Our previous Trade of Day in EUR/AUD went nicely in our direction but the Buy Limit order never got triggered. The pullback was too shallow (strong EUR here!). MARKETS The week is starting with lower stocks in Asia (Nikkei -0.76%, Hang Seng -1.31%, Shanghai Composite -0.67%, but Australia XJO is up 0.62%), signaling a slight risk-off environment. Let's see if risk aversion will spill over in the European session. GBP: Pound bulls have been disappointed that there wasn't a UK-EU deal over the weekend. We're entering the end phase of negotiations, and some reports suggest there has been some progress on fishery issues and "level playing field" demand. However, UK Government said there has been no breakthrough on fish. GBP index fell -2.8% overnight. AUD: Despite strong China Exports (trade balance came in at 507B vs 373B expected), the Australian dollar failed to move higher. Lower stocks in Asia are dragging on the currency. Will be a trading candidate today if risk-off persists. Australian 10-year yields up 3.5 bps to 1.03%. The US is preparing new sanctions on Chinese officials over their alleged role in Beijing’s disqualification of elected opposition legislators in Hong Kong. RISK SENTIMENT Risk is overall mixed to slightly risk-off, which led to higher demand in JPY. Besides lower Asian indices, Gold is up 0.13% overnight, and Copper fell 0.37%. CURRENCY STRENGTH The Pound is the worst performer of the overnight session on Brexit concerns. JPY and CHF are stronger, signaling risk-off, but NZD is higher. USD and AUD trading lower. TRADE OF THE DAY Coming in a separate post.
TVC:SPX
by MujkanovicFX
1
GBPUSD-Weekly Market Analysis-Dec20,Wk2Shark Patterns in the Harmonic Pattern setup is the most tricky setup. Last week, you have witnessed 1 of the potential setup of the bearish shark pattern(link at bottom) and we have all seen how the shark pattern was in place and created a strong resistance of the ascending triangle. This week the PRZ zone has moved up to the area and if this level is broken, there will be another level. Yeah, believe it. If the market falls from here, the support level would prevent it to create a free flow, we would expect more of a bounce then a free fall.
Short
by RaynLim
1