GBPJPY Correction May Be Coming To An End - Time For BuysFor this setup we have:
-Elliott Wave ABC correction pattern & channel
-Major 61.8 retracement
Perfect ABCD projection within Elliott Wave channel
-Major counter-trendline support
-Significant psychological round number (130.000)
Scenario #2:
-If price doesn't reach the 130.000 price level, then the 50.0 Fibonacci level will act as strong support
SL: 128.500
TP1: 133.500
TP2: 134.000
TP3: 135.500
Brexit
GBP/USD IN DEMAND ZONE? The GBP/USD pair is trading near a potential demand zone near the 50% Fib level and a horizontal support level which has previously acted as a resistance for the price.
The pair formed two strong pinbar patterns last week that rejected lower prices for the time being.
The pound continues to be strongly influenced by Brexit news, so pay attention to your risk levels when trading pairs that include the GBP.
GBPUSD: LONG [D] [10/07]GBPUSD | Weak | 1.3400 – 1.2000
- Prime Minister Boris Johnson is in the hot seat and needs to bring certainty to the markets on Brexit.
- Brexit put downward pressure on GBP and uncertainty remains on its outcome.
- GBP is supported above 1.2000. PM Johnson’s Brexit comments resonated with his European counterparts and has brought short term strength back into CABLE.
- Key SELL area 1.2740/1.2670 R70
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EURGBP: Updated Trading Plan
this is the update for my previous trading plan on EURGBP.
The lower boundary of a flag has been adjusted.
After multiple attempts to break above the 0.892 level the market is still standing below the identified resistance.
My bias remains bearish and I am waiting for a bearish violation of a flag.
Targets have been also adjusted:
Instead of having two targets, now I have only one target level 0.882.
Stop will be above the resistance.
Good luck!
GBPNZD WILL FALL!!! HERE IS WHY!
hey traders,
I was paying close attention to GBPNZD these last two weeks.
The reason is that the pair has recently approached a 2019's high and was strongly rejected.
Sellers have been pushing the market to the support line of a rising channel
and we see the complete reluctance of buyers to open long trades on dip,
so the market has set a lower high.
Now the market has recently violated the boundaries of a channel
and we see a rise in selling volumes.
+ taking into account the historical perspective we see how similar the sentiment was this spring.
based on these observations my bias on pair is bearish and I expect bearish continuation to lower structure levels.
Target levels are 1.95 and 1.88
*if you like this idea, please, like it and leave a comment! thanks :)
ORBEX: GBPUSD, USDCHF - Another Fed Cut?, BoJo's Plan Falls FlatIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #GBPUSD and #USDCHF
#GBPUSD moves on:
- BoJo plan optimism on Commons
- BoJo plan falling flat on Good Friday agreement threat
- BoJo plan creates new borders, still seen as backstop
#USDCHF looking bearish on:
- Weak ISM NMI
- Increased chances of rate cuts
- HIgher fears of recession
All eyes on NFP today! Can watch live here: www.orbex.com
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
GBPUSD breaks the resistance. Buy from the current priceFew days ago we created a support and resistance for the Cable that when it breaks, it will continue. However when market is manipulated nowadays it is tricky to see which will it go later.
However because of the ISM Manufacturing last night, it gives us an idea where the high chances that it will go. Always use a proper risk management because a Trump tweet or a recent trade war deal might stopped you out.
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GBPUSD Important ZoneAfter a bearish move succeeding a head and shoulders pattern on GBPUSD, price has moved back into the important zone where bears have pushed it down into the support area. There may be some bullish momentum in the next week as bulls push price up towards the resistance. Maybe even towards the recent head in order to form a double top.
In the longterm, my outlook on GBPUSD is still bearish due to the fundamental implications and uncertainty caused by Brexit and the upcoming exit day for the UK on October 31st.
ORBEX: GBPUSD - Should We Expect The Breakout To Continue?It looks like the corrective intermediate wave (C) completed its bearish course at1.1956. The recent attempt to push prices down brought the pair lower where it completed a corrective minor A,B,C at the round 1.22 level.
As part of intermediate wave (2), the minor three-wave corrected down to the 61.8% golden ratio of 1.1956 bottom and 1.2588 top at 1.21943 - to be more precise.
The current breakout could be the beginning of intermediate wave (3). Should the formation gets validated above 1.2588, the next stop for a breather would be near 1.2828 100% FE, then near 1.32. The structure suggests that once minor corrective low A and then B are taken out by bulls, chances of further upside would increase.
This opportunity would be invalidated below 1.1956 with short-term signs of failure appearing below 1.2194 (unless if this turns out as a double zig-zag or other corrective structure)
Expect short-term pullbacks for profit-taking
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
ORBEX: EURJPY, GBPCHF - US-EU Tradewar Begins, BoJo Submits PlanIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #EURJPY and #GBPCHF
#EURJPY looking bullish on:
- Expectations of further BoJ easing
- Poor JP consumer confidence
- Soft BoJ monetary base
- Good German PMIs and EA Inflation
#GBPCHF looking bearish on:
- Expectations of a strong franc
- Poor UK construction PMI
- Fresh BoJo proposal sentiment
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
AGE OF CURRENCY WAR
The entire industrialized world is engaged in a form of economic warfare known as inflation .
The idea being that if you can make your currency less valuable it makes your export more attractive for the foreign nations than if your currency was more expensive. So this has to do with fluctuations in currency prices. What you can buy stuff for in your country versus what you can buy stuff for in my country.
The more inflation we cause, the more attractive our exports become to other countries.
If you managed to destroy your economy through regulations, through taxation, through bad management and bad government and you don't really know how to create economic growth to pay for all the special welfare programs like UBI . If you don't have a way to do that through an actual growth, because you hamstrung your economy, how can you get more growth???
The way they do it is through currency inflation . So every industrialized nation in the world has figured this out. Now they all fighting a battle to make their currency as cheap as possible so their exports could be more attractive.
How to create inflation?
Well they reduce interest rates, making bonds less expensive, and then they end up issuing a lot of debt and printing a lot of money. They put money into circulation and they incentivize consumption.
They put extra trillions of dollars into circulation because they know people will spend each penny every single year. It is gonna create a lot of inflation .
They go further. What we see now is governments reducing its interest rates to negative.So if interest rates are negative it is no more reasonable to save money because it is costing you money to just put them in the bank.
If saving money costs you, so you should spend your money as fast as you can and that is what these countries are doing. They are offering things like: negative interest rates on the mortgage to buy a house in Scandic nations. They are trying to stimulate a massive amount of consumption to pay you so you consume.
In the beginning, it sounds like a great idea to you because you can purchase a 100000 home for 95000 by the time you done paying it because you have a negative interest rate.
Over the long term though this is going to destroy an economy because it denies a very simple truth about the time value of money, about the way economics works. If they are manipulating the system for short term benefits it will end up crashing us.
If interest rate is a price of money just think about it: if someone is paying you to take money from them, what does it tell you about future value of this money???
I will stop here.
I will be happy to know your thoughts on a current situation. Feel free to share in a comment section.
Gold in MomentumAt the end of the last month, Gold broke the level that it held during the majority of September. It's possible that it may continue down for another level or two before consolidating up until Brexit, which I'm expecting another major move on XAUUSD, XAUEUR, and all Euro & GBP pairs.
British pound continuous to drop30 days until British Exit as prime minister Boris Johnson has promised his citizens. This week he will deliver Brexit Plan to Brussels, lests wait for comments from EU officials. But before, amassing opportunities on GBP-USD currency pier. Pattern right triangular with L1 and T1 trend line, the signal may be a crossing of L1 support.
GBPCHF planAnalisa Teknikal masih mencadangkan saya untuk Bearish kesemua GBP pairs. Risiko besar bias ini adalah perkembangan terkini Brexit & suasana politik di United Kingdom. Berdasarkan data-data yang lepas, market seolah-olah "react" jika news tersebut berupakan news yang tidak baik bagi No Deal Brexit ataupun apa sahaja yang kena mengena dengan Boris Johnson.
My technical analysis suggest that I should be bearish the Pound Sterling. The risk for this bias is any development of Brexit that usually led to Sterling to be bid. i.e No Deal Brexit, any bad things happen to Boris Johnson
Price action yesterday was exactly what I wanted. Since I am bearish GBPCHF, i was looking for a bull trap at the levels that I have marked today on the chart. P2 bearish had been activated, I am still waiting for a bearish trigger signal and/or another test on the upside, preferably breaking yesterday's high.
The daily range yesterday exceeded the 20-day ADR upside projection hence I am anticipating a more subdued price action today. Just anticipation. I love volatility, I wish there is one every day.
GBP/JPYTimeframe (TF): 4 hr and Daily
Trend: Down on 4-hr TF with a correction for current 4-hr TF uptrend; correction to downtrend on Daily TF
-Some bullish divergence can be seen on the 4-Hr. Looking at the daily, stochastic is ready to move in the upwards direction, signaling some bullish movement may occur.
-Do not just open a trade based on my opinion about the divergence, unless your system suggests you do. If a trade is opened, a very tight SL is recommended.
-Fib levels may warrant some validity to this idea. On the Daily TF (overall downtrend), price got rejected at the 0.382 level, which may signal further decline in long-term. On the 4-Hr price is hovering around that 0.382 level which may give it a short-term bump to the upside.
-Keep in in GBP pairs, and especially this pair, may show some serious volatility with Brexit and the uncertainty in that subject. Keep in mind that we are getting into October and Brexit news, whether good or bad may start rolling in a lot. Also note that JPY is also is a safe haven so any global issues can cause people buying JPY (and in this case shorting GBP).
My previous view on GPB/JPY that turned out profitable (shorted ~134.60 down to 132.80), based on bearish divergence: