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Brexit

ORBEX:GBPUSD,EURUSD -A Real Brexit Deal, OR Another Failed Vote?In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #EURUSD and #GBPUSD #FXMajors! Pound Bid on Brexit agreement with EU. BoJo nee's to break DUP and opposition resistance and get deal through Parliament. Expected over the weekend! Euro supported by positive news and despite Germany revised GDP downward. Risk appetite up in general with #Aussie, #Kiwi, #Loonie all up! Meanwhile, the #EUSummit continues. Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
GBPAUD SHORT at multi-month channel resistance and 50% fibFavorable risk-reward short during last minute Brexit deal chaos. Stops just above 50% fib retracement (from Aug '15-Oct '16). Price is at 1.9000 Technical Analysis: - Psychological level 1.9000 - Multi-month channel resistance (since Mar '18) - Just under 50% fib retracement at 1.9080 (from Aug '15-Oct '16). - MACD, RSI showing extremely overbought signals (on daily, 4hr, 1hr) Fundamental Analysis: Risks: Last minute Brexit deal may drive price above 1.9100. However, even if there is a deal, it is unlikely that it will pass parliament emergency sitting on Saturday. From there, either extension (more-likely, could be GBP positive or negative) or no-deal (less-likely and extremely bearish GBP). TP: 1.7650 (+1250 pips) SL: 1.9100 (-100 pips)
Short
by simplejack
Oil price torn between Brexit deal and inventory dataThis week there was a huge surprise US oil inventory build (10 million barrels, 3 times the analyst estimate) due to US sanctions against the shipping company COSCO. However, we also got a Brexit deal today. Oil has been struggling to decide which way to move on all this news. The trend appears to be downward, but it's not confirmed until it breaks below the triangle. Oil is a short only if and when it breaks below triangle bottom.
FX:USOILShort
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
Threats on the horizon, EU summit & hidden intervention of JapanToday we are talking about a possible demarche by the Irish Democratic Party and, accordingly, the text of the treaty that could be not approved. Therefore, the GBP movement stuck. On the one hand, growth needs to be continued, because on brink of Brexit deal, on the other hand, everyone suddenly realized that the deal still has to be approved by the Parliament of Great Britain. This has already happened with Theresa May so the growth of the pound has stopped so far. Also, a positive sign following the results of today's summit of the European Union may well overshadow the concerns for a while. So today we will continue to buy the pound, but with an eye on the outcome of the summit. Its failure will be a sentence for the pound (at least temporary) and it will be sold out. Another rather unexpected threat was the announcement by China that the country is ready for countermeasures if the US Congress provides legislative support to protesters in Hong Kong. Given the already difficult and still incomplete trade negotiations between the United States and China, this could become a stumbling block in resolving trade wars. In the light of such news and market concerns, today we will continue to look for points for safe-haven assets purchase (gold and the Japanese yen). As for the yen decline this week, Goldman Sachs explains its weaknesses with purchases of foreign assets by the Japanese State Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), which put pressure on its currency. But in general, this is a form of hidden currency interventions. Interventions by the Bank of Japan may provoke the United States to ask the Bank questions, but also it seems like there is no manipulation. Worth noting the weak data on US retail sales (-0.3% with the forecast + 0.3%). The dollar naturally was under pressure. Recall that we remain bears, so today we continue to look for points for dollar sales in the foreign exchange market.
Long
by Trade24Fx
GBPUSD: Slowing Bullish Momentum & Bearish Wave hey traders, after a massive buying reaction last week we see that GBPUSD is slowing down. rising wedge formation is a very good indicator of weakening momentum. More the market contracts within the pattern, higher the chances that it will break to the downside. I am waiting for a bearish breakout of the wedge to short the pair. Market most likely will set a lower high before the breakout. Target levels are 1.265 1.255 Stop above the highest point of the wedge
Short
by VasilyTrader
2
EURGBP bounce or break at 3 year range support?Depending on the outcome of Brexit within these two weeks, we could see a bounce or strong break of a 3 year range (since Oct '16). Either way, a deliberate move at range support is expected: If range is respected once more, TP: 0.9200 (+800 pips) If range is broken after 3 years, TP: 0.7400 (+1000 pips) Catalyst for a break of the range will be last minute Brexit deal by 31 October. One could place SELL-STOP orders below the range to catch the big break as a retest is unlikely for such an event. If expecting an extension, or no deal, then BUY-LIMIT order at range support.
by simplejack
Brexit "optimism"I am not a huge fan of trading the sterling solely on technical analysis. Not with Brexit development causing price fluctuations from time to time. I always prefer (tho not exclusively necessary) trading any currency while having an objective picture (market sentiment) of the market involving the currency I want to buy or sell. I might be late to the party (buying sterling on Brexit optimism) I have a solid belief of what the mood of the market is regarding the sterling at the moment.. that is cautious optimism and not fully priced in. I am cautiously bullish on sterling just purely based on short term market sentiment. A price correction is anticipated however that weekly and monthly upside projection have been hit and exceeded. I will only look for business at the levels I have marked on the chart (looking for the bear trap). Risk event for sterling is CPI y/y number however I doubt it will cause a significant spike. Another risk for this plan are : a) Range have been exceeded, institutional profit taking is likely b) negative brexit news
Long
by sufiansaid
1
Brexit & pound, IMF forecasts and Bank of Japan plansThe pound is a focus of attention of the forex market. Because Brexit is entering final straight. Yesterday the European Commission's chief negotiator Michel Barnier said that Brexit deal within reach in last-ditch talks, but doubts remain. And then there was information that the legally agreed text will be presented to the delegations of the EU and the UK no later than Wednesday morning. On the whole, we cannot but note the positive attitude of the parties, which only strengthens us in the desire to buy the pound. Recall, there is a potential pound value growth. UK labour market data released yesterday (came out pretty weak), once again showed that Brexit is only the pound traders are interested in. So we continue to pay attention to this issue. We still have time for pound purchases at affordable prices, but it is running out. IMF cuts global growth forecast. In 2019, global GDP growth is expected to reach 3% (this is 0.3% lower than the previous IMF forecast), and in 2020 the growth rate will be 3.4% (0.2% lower than the previous forecast). We note that the rate of economic growth in 2019 has been revised to the worst one since the financial crisis of 2008-2009. The IMF noted that the damage from trade wars is equal to the Swiss economy. In general, that is bad news for commodity and stock markets, as well as currencies such as the Canadian and Australian dollars. But good for safe-haven assets buyers. The US decided to hint to Turkey that a ground invasion against Kurdish people might not be the best idea. We are talking about US sanctions against Turkey, announced by Trump, as well as Volkswagen's decision to suspend the construction of an automobile plant in Turkey (price tag $ 1.4 billion). While no reaction from the financial markets to this has followed, we decided to leave our recommendations for the purchase of safe-haven assets (gold and the Japanese yen). So today we will continue to look for intraday long positions to open. Information that the Bank of Japan is preparing to reduce the volume of investments in bonds. The event is nontrivial. 10 years ago the Central Bank did that. We interpret this signal as monetary tightening. The yield increase in the Japanese bond market may well trigger a strengthening of the yen. In this light, our recommendation to buy the yen seems reasonable. Leading global analysts predict target 100 for the USD JPY.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Possible EUR/JPY Short Position!! SMP TRADING SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY SMP Strategy Chart time frame - H4 Timeframe - 2-4 Days A – Activating Event Market will meet resistance in zone @ current levels - ... . In order to enter into this trade, the pair MUST be in line with my Entry Procedure.... B – Beliefs Market will move towards the first Target 1 level @ 117.300 C - Fundamentals that may affect the pair USD Retails sales on the 16th Oct @ 22:30 AEST D - Trade Management Entered @ ..... Stop Loss @ ..... Trailing Stop Loss@..... Target 1 @ 117.30 Target 2 @ .... Risk/Reward @ 4.5.1 Happy trading :) Follow your Trading plan, Remain disciplined and Keep learning !! Please Follow, Like,Comment & Follow :) This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
Short
by SMPTrader
Possible EUR/AUD Short position !!SMP TRADING SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY SMP Strategy Chart time frame - H4 Timeframe - 1-3 Days A – Activating Event Market will meet resistance in zone @ current levels - ... . In order to enter into this trade, the pair MUST be in line with my Entry Procedure.... B – Beliefs Market will move towards the first Target 1 level @ 1.621 C - Fundamentals that may affect the pair AUD Unemployment Rate on the 17th Oct @ 10:30 AEST D - Trade Management Entered @ ..... Stop Loss @ ..... Trailing Stop Loss@..... Target 1 @ 1.621 Target 2 @ .... Risk/Reward @ 2.5.1 Happy trading :) Follow your Trading plan, Remain disciplined and Keep learning !! Please Follow, Like,Comment & Follow :) This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
Short
by SMPTrader
GBPUSD update Brexit deadline is comingWave (iii) is in full swing, now near the 100% extension. Ideally wave (iii) should go up to 1.32 level So far technical and fundamental analysis is fully in line. Not expecting to test Brexit lows again. October 31st deadline is close, should launch the price further. Expecting price to range here mostly before the decision. Small time frame trading is still good possible. EURGBP shows better trading opportunities with more direct price moves. Comment your thoughts on this! Good Luck!!
by Antonio_trader
ORBEX: Gold & Oil Slide on Earnings & IMF ReportsIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #XAUUSD and #WTI Oil! Gold Lower on: - Brexit optimism despite running out of time - Banks reporting good Q3 results, and equities rising - US-Sino on a stalemate, allowing new-coming flows to take over Crude Oil Lower on: - IMF downgrading growth again, again - Dismissed excitement surrounding limited trade deal - Increasing demand for Natural Gas Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Orbex
EUR/USD GIVES GREEN LIGHT TO BUYHi traders, hope you had a productive week with the developments around Brexit these days. This post, however, is about EUR/USD. The pair faced buying pressure after reaching a shorter-term support level / completing a pullback to the 1.10 level. As you know, I've been bullish on the pair these days, and the price hasn't managed to close below the 1.10 mark (check my previous posts for this.) Positive news around Brexit is also positive for the euro. Don't forget that, from a technical standpoint, the break above the wedge pattern projects a profit target around the 1.12 level. Please hit the "LIKE" button if you find any value in this analysis. Thanks!
Long
by MujkanovicFX
2
Possible GBP/USD Short Position!!SMP TRADING SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY SMP Strategy Chart time frame - H4 Timeframe - 2-4 Days A – Activating Event Market will meet resistance in zone @ current levels - ... . In order to enter into this trade, the pair MUST be in line with my Entry Procedure.... B – Beliefs Market will move towards the first Target 1 level @ 1.22 C - Fundamentals that may affect the pair GBP CPI on the 16th Oct @ 18:30 AEST D - Trade Management Entered @ ..... Stop Loss @ ..... Trailing Stop Loss@..... Target 1 @ 1.22 Target 2 @ .... Risk/Reward @ 4.5.1 Happy trading :) Follow your Trading plan, Remain disciplined and Keep learning !! Please Follow, Like,Comment & Follow :) This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
Short
by SMPTrader