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Brexit

ORBEX:SPX,DXY -Tradewar Deal Next Month! Brexit Today, Tomorrow?In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #SPX and #DXY #Indices! Equities and Cash Indices are both affected by growing confidence surrounding #tradewars, #Brexit and of course, the upbeat US earning reports that keep coming out! With Mr Trump expecting a #tradewar deal by the middle of next month and BoJo willing to push through his latest EU-agreed deal through parliament today or tomorrow, it's going to be an interesting start to the week. Meanwhile, the economic calendar is light today, Monday, making headline news a good market mover! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
TVC:DXY
by Orbex
WHO F****** KNOWS NOWmore delays for brexit should see big gap down and a return to retest previous lows. if deal is agreed then we should see gap up and continued strength in the pound. honestly, i have stopped day trading the pound, it is very volatile and now looking for longer term positions. As a young person in the UK i feel my views have been forgotten about. To anyone over the age of 50, should not be able to vote simply because it is not their future. At this moment in time i just want us to leave, this is not my political view, it is simply so that we can stop going in circles and sort the country out. anyone think i should be PM?
by kristianhammond15
6
GBPUSDMonthly -Pound reach all time low $1.1940 back in Sept 2019, last time at this level was October 2016. -If current momentum continue price push higher, this double bottom will probably be valid & solid. -Now price has trending upward of 700+ pips and reach M1 supply zone. Weekly -W1 supply zone coincide with M1 supply zone. Daily -D1 supply zone also coincide with W1 & M1 supply zone. -Supply zone is now tested basically short setup is prefer, to identify LTF supply & demand zone. -For now, prefer price to consolidate a while on current level before slowly grinding back lower(healthier/stronger uptrend). -Price could trend higher easily in the future.
by HKGan
Some Uncertainty Shorting the EUR/GBP Short EUR/GBP @ 0.86100 SL - 0.87850 TP1 - 0.85710 TP2 - 0.85200 The COT reports below are a bit unclear although they show more entities shorting the EUR. ------NON-COMMERCIAL---|---COMMERCIAL -------LONG------SHORT--|---LONG-----SHORT GBP 21,400 94,000 183,500 109,600 EUR 147,000 228,000 265,000 222,400 The market is very volatile due to the upcoming Brexit news. Trendline does show a retracement to the 61.8% soon, hopefully after i reach my TP1, possibly TP2 as well. Using minimal risk, very small lots. *IF/Once TP hits, I am placing a long to reach that 61.8% level @ 0.87900 which I'm almost positive is where it's heading.
Short
by aromanFX
GBP/CHF We Will Not Be FooledYou are not going to fool the bears of the GBP. That Brexit deal is not going pass through parliament. It is worse than May's past deals and has received criticism from big-time pro-Brexiter Nigel Farage: "not great, not new, and NOT Brexit." High volume showing resistance around 200-Day SMA. Just because the rest of Europe likes it doesn't mean it is favourable for the UK. Bets are on for the deal to collapse as usual. We will not be fooled by the recent bull trend, we are better than that. With all my confidence, realize surprises do happen, so let's proceed with caution.
Short
by TogamiTrader
1
Brexit Catalyst for Equity Trade?Before I get into the trade idea, I need to preface that I still believe that US equities will be going higher in the longer term. Not really for any fundamental reasons, but more so that the world is in a bad place and the US looks the best, albeit having a lot of problems. Martin Armstrong calls the US and the US Dollar the prettiest sister out of the three ugly sisters. Also, there will be nowhere to go for yield. We know QE (or QE but not calling it QE is coming) and interest rates will be dropping to 0 because central banks are out of options. Check out my posts linked below where I talk about all these things...predictions are coming true and we are truly in the reset/crisis. With rates at 0, we are at the 'paradigm shift' environment that Ray Dalio has spoken about. Bonds are now being traded not for yield but to sell to another bigger fool. Real Estate historically goes up once the first rate hike occurs. You do not take a mortgage out when you know rates will be dropping lower later. Stocks will be the only place for yield and not only that, the liquidity in this type of macro environment will be appealing. You can get in and get out relatively quickly. So onto the short TRADE idea. Markets are still being affected by geopolitical and other uncertainties. This will affect equities in the short term, but again, as a fund manager money has to be deployed. You cannot hold cash for a long time. This money will go to work and I predict it will go into stocks for the yield factor described above. We found out today at time of writing this idea that Brexit will be delayed until January. I have mentioned how Brexit will likely not happen. It will keep getting delayed and we may very well see a re-vote. There are 3 reasons why Brexit will likely not happen: 1) The British politicians who are part of the European Parliament lose their 6 figure jobs and pensions. Not in their best interest to leave. 2) There will be a European economic/debt crisis. The German taxpayer will not be able to bail out Europe all by themselves. The British tax payer will be required to help. 3) Most importantly, Brexit sets a precedent. European nations like Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal may get inspired by a deal. Anyhow, the charts are setting up nicely for a move lower. We have been in an uptrend, with higher highs and higher lows, and then price began to stall at a resistance/flip zone or in some cases near all time highs. For the SPX, we are seeing an exhaustion it appears. Would ideally like to see a break below this flip zone with a pattern like a head and shoulders. The Nasdaq already had the break. Would like to see a retest with a confirmed lower high and lower low. Nice strong break. The Nikkei is showing signs of a trend exhaustion here. Need to see if we get the break. The China 50 already had the break. Awaiting for another swing (lower high). The German Dax is at a crucial resistance/flip zone that you can see on the daily chart. Showing signs of exhaustion and potential reversal here. We should cover the FTSE as well, but honestly, no real good pattern/set up for me on the lower time frames. The Daily still has a crucial level below.
FX:SPX500Short
by Uncharted-FX
2
EURUSD - Anticipating another pushThe weekly and monthly upside projections have been reached. Price very often would start to retrace at this point hence that is what I am anticipating. I am bullish of the EURUSD hence I am looking to buy the dip at these liquidity pools I have identified on the chart. Sometimes, after hitting range projections, the price also can go sideline for a period of time and continuing the trend. I hope not because I want to get on to this bullish train but I don't want to chase the price either (hence waiting for pullbacks). If the institutions want to keep loading their dollar shorts/euro longs, a pullback indeed a necessary procedure to get more bullish liquidity by consuming sell orders in the downside. In over 13 brokers, the aggregate ratio between long and short for the EURUSD is 70:30. 70 for shorts, 30 for longs. There are no economic data for both Euro and U.S, but there is a brexit risk and U.S China Trade talk PLUS there is the EU Summit going on right now.
Long
by sufiansaid
DO NOT HOLD GBPAnother week is coming to an end and we have had some immense volatility across GBP pairs. We have some heavy GBP data this evening AFTER market close which has a high probability at showing if there is going to be a deal in regards to Brexit. With that being said, it is HIGHLY advised to close ALL GBP positions, as the future is unknown and come market open, we could potentially see a gap at 100 pips and beyond. If you are on the wrong side of the trade, it doesn't matter where your SL is placed, it will close the trade at market open, so for those that are new to trading, the consequences of not following this advice, could end up with you having a blow account! *Always take a look at an economic calendar like the ones provided by FXStreet and DailyFX. If there is big news coming out over the close of the market, it is always best to stay out of the trade!
Education
by wakethesheep
Is EURUSD about to reverse??Today is important. So is tomorrow. This market has been in a steady downtrend for some time now, with regular oscillations indicative of healthy profit taking activity. Both the US and European markets are going through turbulent times manifesting in US/China trade talks, calls for impeachment over alleged improper presidential activities and last minute negotiations over Britain's departure from the European Union. Today, the EURUSD market ascended into a cluster of potentially strong price/time barriers. This could certainly be another interim high leading to a continuation of the downtrend. Let's go through some of the key features of this chart with our standard series of Analysis Points (APs). AP1) The first indication that the market could be about to reverse is its proximity to the 0.5 retracement level. This comes from the Fibonacci levels, shown in yellow, which are obtained by dividing the range from the point labelled C and the point labelled D. The letters are in pink. AP2) Observe the downward sloping solid lines of red and cyan. They are the product of a pitchfork using points A,B and C in its construction. The market has been responsive to these trendlines , including the median line often enough to place some degree of confidence in them as price barriers. Notice that the cyan trendline extending from point C in the pitchfork coincided with the 0.5 level from AP1 at the current time in the yellow circle. Now we're starting to see some confluence in signals. AP3) This is a simple one. The green line which is generally falling throughout this chart shows a 100 day moving average. It too coincides with the barriers from AP1 and AP2 in the yellow circle. This moving average has potential to act as resistance as the market rises into it. It has provided support and resistance on a number of occasions in this chart. AP4) Finally, consider the stochastic oscillator shown at the bottom of the chart. It is set to highlight points where the oscillator exceeds a reading of 90 or is below a reading of 10. Today, it is at the highest level shown in this chart. The stochastic has only been close to this level twice before in this chart and on both occasions, the market's uptrend became exhausted and reversed. These are shown by the white dashed vertical lines. This cn be considered another bearish signal. There are a number of significant barriers for this market at the current price and time. Remember that this market is in a downtrend so the bearish bias of these signals coincide with the trend sentiment. Today's close price could be a significant indicator of how the market will respond to this cluster. However, be aware that Monday could open with a gap following what may be a shocking weekend for investors, particularly surrounding Brexit. If the market powers through this barrier and breaks to the upside, it could be a sign of bullish strength or of a market that is adjusting to new information. The next few days of price action will be very interesting.
Short
by Quantium_Research
Dax - Long Upside PotentialThe Dax was able to finally break the resistance level at 12488 on the 11th of October, and the news of a potential Brexit deal being agreed between the US and the EU led to the Dax to surging up to 12800 yesterday. Therefore, we expect the DAX to continue rising towards 13000 but we believe there will be a significant amount of volatility and potential downside if the Brexit deal is not passed through the UK parliament this weekend. Consequently, we see the index moving higher as long as prices don't pass through the previous resistance level at 12488.
XETR:DAXLong
by KQMarkets
1
The supreme test of pound, China's GDP & US retail salesYesterday Brexit turned a corner. The Prime Minister got the European Union to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement that the EU said to would never renegotiate. The British pound, as we expected, hit a fresh five-month high above 1.30. But after that, many buyers decided to take profits, resulting in a rebound of the pound more than 150 points down. The reason for taking profit was both about 1000 points per week, which, for example, could be earned in the GBPUSD, and fears that Brexit deal might fail again. Parliament is expected to sit on Saturday in what could be one of the most important Commons’ sessions of the entire Brexit process. Recall ones the agreement between the EU and Great Britain was already agreed, but the country's parliament voted “against”, as a result, Teresa May resigned and everything had to start all over again. If the story repeats, then the further development of events can be quite unpredictable. That is why many decided to take profits, and it is difficult to blame them. The fact is that the current version of the treaty doesn’t quite satisfy the Irish Democratic Party. And without their support, Johnson is unlikely to gain enough votes. As for our position, so far it is unchanged. We consider such bounces of 150 points as an excellent opportunity for purchasing. If the Parliament votes “for”, the pound will simply be doomed to further growth. It will be 200-300 points or 1000 is difficult to say, but pound purchases will live up to. If Boris fails that will certainly trigger massive sales in pound pairs. This option must be borne in mind and do not forget to put stops. You can safely sell the pound if he loses. The US, meanwhile, continues to show weak macroeconomic statistics. Yesterday, data on industrial production not only came out worse than forecasts below 0. The statistics on the real estate market did not please either. In general, we see an increasing number of reasons for the sale of the dollar. And today we continue to look for points to open short positions on the dollar in the foreign exchange market. Of the other statistical news, it is worth noting today's data on China's GDP. The indicator reached 6% (with a forecast 6.1%). Industrial production growth rates (went above forecasts) and retail sales (within the framework of forecasts, but in a good plus). In this light, our recommendation to buy safe-haven assets continues to be relevant. So today we continue to look for points for purchases of gold, as well as the Japanese yen.
Long
by Trade24Fx