ORBEX: GBPJPY, EURGBP - BoJo Wants Election, Adios Draghi!In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #GBPJPY and #EURGBP #FXMinors!
GBPJPY Supported by:
- Increasing expectations EC will grant January extension
- BoJo win in case of early election
- Weak safe-haven flows
- Japan manufacturing to 3yr low
EURGBP Under Pressure as:
- Investors eye ECB and last Draghi meeting
- Disappointing Business Climate (French)
- Poor EA Consumer Confidence
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
Brexit
The break goes on, commodity currencies and the pound purchases The break is going on. Bursts of volatility are observed in pound pairs (just after the last two volatile weeks, this activity seems to be increased only against the background of other currencies standing still). This contributes to both the accumulated fatigue after full of events weeks and the lack of important news.
Justin Trudeau has won a second term as Canada’s prime minister after the country’s federal election. The news as a whole is positive for Canada in general and the Canadian dollar in particular. However, no one rushed to buy it. Nevertheless, we consider Canadian dollar purchases to be a rather prospective trading idea, despite the strong oversold of USDCAD and rather weak data on retail sales in Canada published yesterday (-0.1% with the forecast a + 0.4% rise). So today we will look for points for sales of USDCAD.
Since we are talking about commodity currencies, we want to draw the attention of our readers to AUDUSD. If today it can gain a foothold above 0.6880-0.6890, this will be an excellent occasion to open long positions with a minimum target in the region of 0.7020.
Note that in the light of progress in the negotiations between the US and China, trading currencies, which include the Australian and Canadian dollars, actively work out latest losses and, on the whole, seem quite prospective.
Another good trading idea. Descents of 150-200 +/- points should be used to buy the GBPUSD. Remember, set stops because, at any moment, Brexit news may provoke bursts of volatility.
Speaking of Brexit and the reason for pound’s fall. The main question that plagued the markets can Boris Johnson 'get Brexit done' by October 31? Recall that we predicted that he could not, but in the end, everything would be okay. On the one hand, the Parliament made it clear that it was ready to support the agreement. On the other hand, there is no way to be in time before October 31.
In addition to the statistics on retail sales in Canada, yesterday was remembered for its still weak data on the US real estate market (Sales of existing homes in September fell by 2.2%, while analysts forecast a 0.7% decrease). In this light, we once again recall our recommendation to focus on looking for points for the US dollar purchase. In addition to commodity currencies and the pound, safe-haven assets (gold and the Japanese yen) are well suited for this.
GBPAUD SHORTFundamentals will create any reason to explain the technicals of the market. BREXIT, protest, etc. Being a technical trader and having a set algorithm will solve most over complicated issues to this complex market. It looks just about time for the this pair to resume its long term downtrend. I am currently in shorts, but will be adding to my position once price declines further past 1.8500 support. My overall target for this position is 400 pips to 1.81.. The market can fall further than this point, but I will have further updates once that happens.
GBPUSD: Bearish Continuation
hey traders,
those who missed short from higher structure levels on GBPUSD
still, have an opportunity to catch a selling wave.
on 1H chart we see a formation of a head and shoulders pattern,
and the market has already broken below the neckline.
taking into account high accuracy of this pattern,
I expect to see bearish continuation to lower levels of structure.
Target levels are 1.28 and 1.27
Simple Structure Breakout but anticipating HUGE DROPGBPAUD
After a huge rally, can see price currently running out of steam to climb further.
Price currently doing correction
Setup: SB +Re & ABC
Confluence:
BRN
Equilibrium Zone
Entry:
Sell @ 1.8800, SL @ 18950 (150 pips), TP @ 1860(200 pips)
Let's see how it goes.
Long GBPUSD before going Short on HighAs a result of delaying in Brexit Vote, Sterling might find some support before going Long again for the remaining days of the week. Any positive outcomes on Brexit will sparks bullishness of Sterling further. However, as the Fibonacci 78.6% awaiting as resistance zone at the price around 1.3075-1.3100 it might conclude that the upward movement is market intention to reentry Short on High.
GBP USD (1Hour) Buy Opportunity GBP/USD: Fall back to trend line support
Sterling/DOLLAR fell over the weekend,
with the failure to hold a meaningful vote
undermining sentiment that the Brexit bill
would pass. Sterling slipped and fell again
to the trend line support, suggesting that
the pair might turn bullish and that the
outlook would remain, unless it
fell below 1.284.
The Euro And The Pound Battling It Out!The EURGBP is approaching an interesting point, technically and fundamentally.
On the technical side, price may soon break out of consolidation to the upside or the downside,
either way we are likely to see a big trend as a result.
Fundamentally, we are approaching the Brexit date for when the UK finally leaves the EU on October 31st 2019.
With a lot of news and debate about this recently in politics, we may even see a delay in leaving the EU, which may
have a negative or positive effect on price.
Regardless of what is happening in the news, we always know that the charts tell us a better story
of what is happening in the markets.
The EURGBP saw a nice rally from July 2015 to October 2016, lasting 15 months, which was followed
by consolidation. Big trends are usually followed by periods of consolidation so it is of no surprise that this
rally of 33% has seen price remain in consolidation for 3 years.
The Euro found some strength in August 2017 and August 2019, seeing price spike out of consolidation
briefly only to return back within the consolidation zone.
Price is finding weakness and is currently trading below the daily 200 simple moving average
and we may see more weakness to come. If price moves lower then we want to wait and see if it
can break below the consolidation support level at 0.8297. If price does break and close below that level
then we may see a strong trend to the downside develop.
Following a break of 0.8297, we have two round numbers that price may move towards which
are 0.8000 then 0.7000. Followed by that we have the July 2015 low at 0.6930.
Remember that nothing is guaranteed and price may just remain in consolidation for a while longer.
We just need to apply patience and only act when opportunities present themselves.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
1.2875 will set the tone in CableSelling pressure is increasing in Cable. With the rise of early election rumors in the UK and the increase in the dollar index, the selling pressure on the parity is accelerating. 1.2875 level maintains its position as the support for the continuation of the current decrease and if the decrease reaches below this area, 1.2800 level will be on our radar. Considering the possibility of upward movements, 1.2930 and 1.3010 levels will also be on our radar in terms of resistance levels.
Markets took a break, pound tested 1.30"Markets took a break" the lack of high-profile news and frankly difficult weeks contributed to that yesterday.
GBP has tested 1.30 against the dollar. As we expected unsuccessfully since a successful test requires positive news from Britain. Johnson’s attempt to accelerate the negotiation process did not bring home the bacon. Parliament refused to re-vote on the approval of the agreement. Motivation: the decision was already made on Saturday and it makes no sense to discuss the same thing again.
However, Johnson does not give up trying to take the UK out of the EU on 31 October. We are rather sceptical about this and are waiting for a delay for another 2-3 months. Nevertheless, the general feeling of further leaving hangs in the air, so buying pounds in the daily lows area still seems to us to be a good trading idea. In the end, the growth potential has not yet been exhausted.
Another promising idea, in our opinion, is the sale of the dollar. But recently, we see more and more reasons to start a downward dollar rally: rates in the US are falling, economic indicators are deteriorating, US exporters continue to suffer due to a strong dollar (in the current reporting season, at least 16 leading companies have complained about problems with profit due to for a strong dollar), in addition and do not forget about the structural problems of the US economy (public debt, chronic trade deficit and trillion budget deficit). So we will continue to look for points for selling the dollar in the foreign exchange market.
Canadian retail sales figures are what we are waiting to come out. Especially because the Canadian dollar has recently strengthened in the foreign exchange market. On the one hand, the Canadian dollar may still grow. On the other hand, weak data on the background of a rather strong overbought Canadian dollar may well give a signal for fixing profits and starting correction in pairs with the Canadian dollar. We are closely watching the news.
GBPUSD Trend Remains Upwards Ahead of Brexit Vote GBPUSD remains in an uptrend ahead of today’s Brexit vote around 9 pm London time. The trend will remain bullish as long as the price trades above 1.2752, and I think the price might reach 1.3012 from the 1.2878 level.
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This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
ORBEX:GBPUSD, EURUSD, USDCAD - Exit Or Extension? Trudeau Wins!In today’s #marketinsights video recording I analyse #GBPUSD, #EURUSD and #USDCAD!
Another failed Johnson attempt to get Parliamentarians to vote supports the #pound as now chances of an extension increase! Both an October exit (highly unlikely) or an extension could see mainly #pound and in a smaller degree #euro gain.
Meanwhile, in Canada Trudeau won the elections again! This is likely to weigh on technicals more as fiscals are going to remain unchanged..
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
USDCHF 4HOUR CHARTUSDCHF has broken the bullish trendline on the 4hour chart. I believe this pair is going to break and retest the trendline before continuing the bearish force. The RSI also has a reading for a correction of the bears move which would be the retest i am analyzing to occur with a reading of around 35.30. Furthermore, There is a bullish divergence on the 4 hour chart as well as the 1 hour chart. Find a good entry using the lower time frames and go long for the bulls. Demaurio_fx
GBPUSD 21/10/2019Hello Traders!
We play with Smartmoney concepts, that means that we focus mostly on price action to determine what will happen in future.
As we all know, price is moved by BIG players: Banks, Institutional traders, HFT bots (we call them all of them SmartMoney).
They can't play as we do, cause of a HUGE lot sizes, so cause of that they need to SELL to BUY and BUY to SELL for positioning them self in the best possible spot.
If u were learn about trading from free and accessible knowledge, u probably heard about BUYing LOW and SELLing HIGH?
So SmartMoney must BUY LOWER and SELL HIGHER :)
We as retail traders are just a small fish in this ocean, so we need to catch the waves which are created by SmartMoney.
CHARTS AGENDA:
BITCOIN - MONEY POCKET
ARROWS ARE ABOVE AND BELOW OF EQUAL HIGHS AND LOWS
BLUE LINES - ENTRIES
MARKED LINES - PREVIOUS ENTRY POINT
BLUE BOX - GAP's
COLOR BOXES - FOCUS POINT TO REACT
Don't forget to like if it was helpful to you. We appreciate likes and comments.
Thank you,
GOD BLESS U ALL!
GBPUSD Potential Short selling Idea This is not an investment recommendation or any call to buy or sell
It is just an analysis based on a study of the history of price action
Behavior , that may not be a necessarily reason for the success of
the structure or repetition. So please make your decision based on your vision .
To protect capital and manage your deals and trading successfully
the maximum loss in each transaction for the same currency or
commodity in the same direction should not exceed ( 2% ) of the capital .
Good luck >>
GBPJPY Brexit SuspenseI bet you are all waiting for it.
Here is my trade entry and looking to trail this pair.
We have a strong support zone. Which is full of wicks, hopefully, we are carrying the baggage higher and higher
There is a failed head and shoulders for a sell which is a good sign for losing sellers in this market.
Hoping for the best next week